<p>這無可否認。自 1997 年上市以來，電子商務巨頭 <strong>亞馬遜</strong> 的股價上漲超過 300,000%，成為這一代市場上最有回報的投資之一。它的表現依然強勁。儘管規模龐大，但預計今年的收入增長超過 9%，明年將接近 10%。這並不差。</p>
<p>但沒有公司能永遠壓制競爭對手。年輕的、有進取心的競爭者最終會找到新的、更好的想法、技術或解決方案來滲透市場。</p>
<p>這時 <strong>Shopify</strong>(SHOP -2.95%) 登場了，它引入了自亞馬遜近 30 年前紮根以來，在線購物行業可能經歷的最大變革。而且它的增長數據也證明了這一點。</p>
<h2>什麼是 Shopify？</h2>
<p>簡單來説，Shopify 幫助各類企業建立和運營自己的電子商務平台。從網站到數字購物車，再到庫存管理、在線營銷和支付處理，Shopify 是任何希望在線開展業務但不知道從何開始的企業的一站式服務。儘管公司本身不再披露具體數字，但估計目前使用 Shopify 的在線商店數量已達到數百萬。你可能甚至在不知情的情況下使用過它的技術。</p>
<p>當然，單單開設一個在線商店並不一定意味着成功。這些運營者的實際表現如何呢？</p>
<p>實際上表現相當不錯。Shopify 的技術在去年促成了價值 2923 億美元的商品和服務銷售，比 2023 年的收入增長了 24%。就其自身而言，Shopify 在 2024 年產生了近 89 億美元的收入，反映了這些銷售的一部分、某些服務的訂閲收入、支付處理費用等。其中 11 億美元轉化為營業收入。相比之下，亞馬遜報告的 2024 年收入為 6380 億美元，淨收入為 590 億美元。顯然，Shopify 對這家電子商務巨頭並沒有立即的生存威脅。</p>
<p>然而，Shopify 並不需要推翻亞馬遜才能成為一項有回報的投資。它只需要自身增長，而這方面它沒有任何問題。考慮到在線購物環境正在以一種恰好符合 Shopify 獨特優勢的方式演變，它可能不會很快面臨增長阻力。</p>
<h2>在所有正確的方面都不同</h2>
<p>要充分理解 Shopify 未來的可能性，你真的需要回顧一下它的根源。</p>
<p>托比亞斯·呂特克、丹尼爾·韋南德和斯科特·萊克並不是偶然在 2006 年創建了 Shopify。在幾年前推出滑雪裝備在線商店後，這三人意識到小企業在建立自己的電子商務平台時可用的工具非常糟糕。那時，真正的商業機會變得清晰可見。其餘的，正如他們所説，都是歷史。</p>
<p>話雖如此，實際上，亞馬遜對北美在線購物市場的強勢但粗暴的控制為 Shopify 的驚人增長奠定了基礎。</p>
<p>想想看。許多商家和在線賣家利用亞馬遜.com 作為銷售平台，原因在於其龐大的規模；行業研究機構 Digital Commerce 360 表示，它促進了北美約 40% 的在線購物。但這些賣家越來越不把亞馬遜視為合作伙伴。這是因為——除了直接與亞馬遜自己的商品競爭外——亞馬遜還通過以新的方式貨幣化其銷售平台，使其第三方賣家相互競爭。這就是廣告。為了在亞馬遜.com 上真正具備競爭力，第三方賣家需要支付費用來展示他們的產品。僅去年，亞馬遜就進行了超過 560 億美元的高利潤廣告業務，所有費用都來自其賣家。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84Mjc1MTMvZS1jb21tZXJjZS1tYW4tc21pbGluZy1jcmVkaXQtY2FyZC5qcGcmdz03MDA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84Mjc1MTMvZS1jb21tZXJjZS1tYW4tc21pbGluZy1jcmVkaXQtY2FyZC5qcGcmdz03MDA"/></p>
<p>圖片來源：Getty Images。</p>
<p>然後就是在一個渴望品牌真實性的環境中，品牌真實性的問題。</p>
<p>雖然亞馬遜的產品列表有效且高效，但它們也冷漠且缺乏個性，無法講述背後公司的故事。然而，使用 Shopify 的商店則不同，賣家可以完全控制展示方式，從而建立起與消費者之間的個人聯繫，進而促成銷售。這一點很重要。<strong>Forrester</strong> 進行的最新研究表明，70% 的消費者表示他們更能與真實的品牌產生共鳴，因此更可能購買該品牌。這個趨勢也在增長，年輕消費者越來越需要這種個人聯繫。</p>
<p>在這種情況下，通過亞馬遜銷售的最令人沮喪的方面之一是，一旦賣家或商家將消費者轉變為付費客户，那個人更像是亞馬遜的客户，而不是賣家的客户。然而，通過使用 Shopify 的技術直接向消費者銷售，企業可以與個人建立更深層次的客户關係，至少因為它直接獲取了該人的聯繫信息。</p>
<p>由所有這些因素創造的機會簡直令人驚歎。Straits Research 的展望表明，全球電子商務平台市場預計將在 2033 年前以 12% 的年均增速增長，這與 Mordor Intelligence 和 Market.us 的類似預測一致。分析師預計，Shopify 在至少到 2027 年期間將實現更好的增長。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84Mjc1MTMvMDczMDI1LXNob3BpZnktcmVzdWx0cy5wbmcmdz03MDA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84Mjc1MTMvMDczMDI1LXNob3BpZnktcmVzdWx0cy5wbmcmdz03MDA"/></p>
<p>數據來源：StockAnalysis.com。圖表由作者製作。</p>
<p>考慮到其在這一領域的主導份額（根據 Oberlo 的數據，美國市場的份額為 28%）以及整個行業的持續擴張，Shopify 很可能會在這一點上保持強勁的增長率。</p>
<h2>不必過於擔心高估值</h2>
<p>確實存在合理的擔憂。其中最主要的是估值。Shopify 的股票目前的價格幾乎是今年預期每股利潤 1.39 美元的 90 倍，以及明年預計每股利潤 1.78 美元的 70 倍。如果沒有其他因素，這樣的高估值使得股票容易受到較大波動的影響。高於共識目標價 118.79 美元的定價也並沒有帶來幫助。</p>
<p>然而，這正是一個故事如此引人注目、公司未來如此光明的案例，以至於市場支持高估值。事實上，Shopify 的股票仍然在接近二月份的高點交易，並且仍然遠低於 2021 年的高點，這是一種機會。</p>
<p>不過，如果最近報告的經濟數據能夠反映經濟的狀況，這個機會窗口可能不會再開放太久。儘管七月份的就業報告令人失望，但六月份的零售銷售、消費者支出以及第二季度估計的 3% GDP 增長率都相當強勁。這一點很重要，因為經濟的強勁支持了消費，包括 Shopify 所促進的在線購物。</p>

SHOP

<p>這篇文章討論了 Shopify 作為成長股與亞馬遜的潛力比較。儘管亞馬遜自首次公開募股以來經歷了顯著增長，Shopify 正通過為企業提供建立電子商務存在的工具而成為強有力的競爭者。Shopify 去年促成了 2923 億美元的銷售額，併產生了 89 億美元的收入。文章強調了在線購物動態的變化，賣家越來越尋求真實性和對品牌的控制，而 Shopify 正好提供了這些，與亞馬遜更為冷漠的平台形成對比</p>

<p>There's no denying it. Up more than 300,000% since its 1997 public offering, e-commerce giant <strong>Amazon</strong> is one of the market's most rewarding investments of this generation. It's still going strong too. Despite it's already massive size, this year's expected top-line growth of more than 9% should reach nearly 10% next year. Not bad.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這無可否認。自 1997 年上市以來，電子商務巨頭 <strong>亞馬遜</strong> 的股價上漲超過 300,000%，成為這一代市場上最有回報的投資之一。它的表現依然強勁。儘管規模龐大，但預計今年的收入增長超過 9%，明年將接近 10%。這並不差。</p>
</div><p>But no company keeps its competitors in-check forever. Young, enterprising rivals will eventually figure out how to penetrate the market with a new and better idea, technology, or solution.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但沒有公司能永遠壓制競爭對手。年輕的、有進取心的競爭者最終會找到新的、更好的想法、技術或解決方案來滲透市場。</p>
</div><p>Enter <strong>Shopify</strong>(SHOP -2.95%), which has introduced what's arguably the most change the online shopping industry has seen since Amazon laid down its roots nearly 30 years ago. And it's got the growth numbers to prove it.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這時 <strong>Shopify</strong>(SHOP -2.95%) 登場了，它引入了自亞馬遜近 30 年前紮根以來，在線購物行業可能經歷的最大變革。而且它的增長數據也證明了這一點。</p>
</div><h2>What's Shopify?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>什麼是 Shopify？</h2>
</div><p>In simplest terms, Shopify helps businesses of all sizes establish and operate their own e-commerce presence. From websites to digital shopping carts to inventory management to online marketing to payment processing, Shopify is a one-stop shop for any enterprise that wants to be online but doesn't have a clue about where to start. Although the company itself no longer discloses the number, estimates put the current number of Shopify-powered online stores well into the millions. You may have even used its tech without even realizing it.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>簡單來説，Shopify 幫助各類企業建立和運營自己的電子商務平台。從網站到數字購物車，再到庫存管理、在線營銷和支付處理，Shopify 是任何希望在線開展業務但不知道從何開始的企業的一站式服務。儘管公司本身不再披露具體數字，但估計目前使用 Shopify 的在線商店數量已達到數百萬。你可能甚至在不知情的情況下使用過它的技術。</p>
</div><p>Simply opening an online store doesn't necessarily mean it's successful, of course. How are these operators actually faring?</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>當然，單單開設一個在線商店並不一定意味着成功。這些運營者的實際表現如何呢？</p>
</div><p>Pretty well, actually. Shopify's technology facilitated the sale of $292.3 billion worth of goods and services last year, up 24% from 2023's top line. For its part, Shopify generated nearly $8.9 billion worth of its own revenue in 2024, reflecting a percentage of those sales, revenue from subscriptions to certain services, fees for processing payments, and the like. Of that, $1.1 billion was turned into operating income. For comparison, Amazon reported a 2024 top line of $638 billion and net income of $59 billion. Clearly, Shopify poses no immediate existential threat to the e-commerce giant.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>實際上表現相當不錯。Shopify 的技術在去年促成了價值 2923 億美元的商品和服務銷售，比 2023 年的收入增長了 24%。就其自身而言，Shopify 在 2024 年產生了近 89 億美元的收入，反映了這些銷售的一部分、某些服務的訂閲收入、支付處理費用等。其中 11 億美元轉化為營業收入。相比之下，亞馬遜報告的 2024 年收入為 6380 億美元，淨收入為 590 億美元。顯然，Shopify 對這家電子商務巨頭並沒有立即的生存威脅。</p>
</div><p>Shopify doesn't have to topple Amazon, however, to be a rewarding investment. It only needs to grow itself, and it's had no problem doing that. It's probably not going to face a growth headwind anytime soon either, given how the online shopping landscape is evolving in a way that plays right into Shopify's unique strengths.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，Shopify 並不需要推翻亞馬遜才能成為一項有回報的投資。它只需要自身增長，而這方面它沒有任何問題。考慮到在線購物環境正在以一種恰好符合 Shopify 獨特優勢的方式演變，它可能不會很快面臨增長阻力。</p>
</div><h2>Different in all the right ways</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>在所有正確的方面都不同</h2>
</div><p>To fully appreciate Shopify's likely future, you really need to revisit its roots.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>要充分理解 Shopify 未來的可能性，你真的需要回顧一下它的根源。</p>
</div><p>Tobias Lütke, Daniel Weinand, and Scott Lake didn't create Shopify back in 2006 by accident. After launching a snowboarding-equipment online store just a couple of years earlier, the trio realized the tools available to small businesses looking to establish their own e-commerce presence were pretty lousy. That's when the actual business opportunity became crystal clear. The rest, as they say, is history.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>托比亞斯·呂特克、丹尼爾·韋南德和斯科特·萊克並不是偶然在 2006 年創建了 Shopify。在幾年前推出滑雪裝備在線商店後，這三人意識到小企業在建立自己的電子商務平台時可用的工具非常糟糕。那時，真正的商業機會變得清晰可見。其餘的，正如他們所説，都是歷史。</p>
</div><p>That being said, in a way, it was actually Amazon's commanding-but-heavy-handed control of North America's online shopping market that set the stage for Shopify's incredible growth.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>話雖如此，實際上，亞馬遜對北美在線購物市場的強勢但粗暴的控制為 Shopify 的驚人增長奠定了基礎。</p>
</div><p>Think about it. Plenty of merchants and online sellers utilize Amazon.com as a selling platform due to its sheer size; industry research outfit Digital Commerce 360 says it facilitates on the order of 40% of North America's online shopping. But, these sellers decreasingly view Amazon as a partner. That's because -- in addition to competing directly with Amazon's own goods -- Amazon is increasingly pitting its third-party sellers against one another by monetizing its sales platform in a new way. That's advertising. For a third-party seller to become and remain truly competitive at Amazon.com, it needs to pay to feature its products. Amazon did over $56 billion worth of this high-margin advertising business last year alone, all of it coming out of its sellers' pockets.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>想想看。許多商家和在線賣家利用亞馬遜.com 作為銷售平台，原因在於其龐大的規模；行業研究機構 Digital Commerce 360 表示，它促進了北美約 40% 的在線購物。但這些賣家越來越不把亞馬遜視為合作伙伴。這是因為——除了直接與亞馬遜自己的商品競爭外——亞馬遜還通過以新的方式貨幣化其銷售平台，使其第三方賣家相互競爭。這就是廣告。為了在亞馬遜.com 上真正具備競爭力，第三方賣家需要支付費用來展示他們的產品。僅去年，亞馬遜就進行了超過 560 億美元的高利潤廣告業務，所有費用都來自其賣家。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84Mjc1MTMvZS1jb21tZXJjZS1tYW4tc21pbGluZy1jcmVkaXQtY2FyZC5qcGcmdz03MDA" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F827513%2Fe-commerce-man-smiling-credit-card.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>圖片來源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><p>Then there's the matter of brand authenticity in an environment that craves it.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然後就是在一個渴望品牌真實性的環境中，品牌真實性的問題。</p>
</div><p>While Amazon's product listings are effective and efficient, they're also cold and impersonal, and unable to tell the underlying company's story. That's not the case with a Shopify-powered store though, where sellers have complete control of the presentation that makes the personal connection which leads to a sale. And it matters. Recent research performed by <strong>Forrester</strong> indicates that 70% of consumers say they can better relate to an authentic brand and are therefore more likely to buy that brand. This trend is growing too, with younger consumers increasingly requiring this personal connection.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>雖然亞馬遜的產品列表有效且高效，但它們也冷漠且缺乏個性，無法講述背後公司的故事。然而，使用 Shopify 的商店則不同，賣家可以完全控制展示方式，從而建立起與消費者之間的個人聯繫，進而促成銷售。這一點很重要。<strong>Forrester</strong> 進行的最新研究表明，70% 的消費者表示他們更能與真實的品牌產生共鳴，因此更可能購買該品牌。這個趨勢也在增長，年輕消費者越來越需要這種個人聯繫。</p>
</div><p>In this vein, perhaps the most frustrating aspect of selling through Amazon is that once a seller or merchant has turned a consumer into a paying customer, that person is more of an Amazon customer than the seller's. By using Shopify's technology to sell directly to a consumer, however, a business can build a deeper customer relationship with the individual if for no other reason than it directly garners that person's contact information.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在這種情況下，通過亞馬遜銷售的最令人沮喪的方面之一是，一旦賣家或商家將消費者轉變為付費客户，那個人更像是亞馬遜的客户，而不是賣家的客户。然而，通過使用 Shopify 的技術直接向消費者銷售，企業可以與個人建立更深層次的客户關係，至少因為它直接獲取了該人的聯繫信息。</p>
</div><p>The resulting opportunity created by all of these factors is nothing less than amazing. An outlook from Straits Research suggests the worldwide e-commerce platform market is set to grow at an average annualized pace of 12% through 2033, jibing with similar predictions from Mordor Intelligence and Market.us. Analysts expect even better growth from Shopify at least through 2027.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>由所有這些因素創造的機會簡直令人驚歎。Straits Research 的展望表明，全球電子商務平台市場預計將在 2033 年前以 12% 的年均增速增長，這與 Mordor Intelligence 和 Market.us 的類似預測一致。分析師預計，Shopify 在至少到 2027 年期間將實現更好的增長。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84Mjc1MTMvMDczMDI1LXNob3BpZnktcmVzdWx0cy5wbmcmdz03MDA" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F827513%2F073025-shopify-results.png&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Data source: StockAnalysis.com. Chart by author.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>數據來源：StockAnalysis.com。圖表由作者製作。</p>
</div><p>Given its commanding share of this space (a leading 28% share of the U.S. market, according to Oberlo) on top of the entire industry's ongoing expansion, Shopify is likely to maintain its strong growth rate well past that point.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>考慮到其在這一領域的主導份額（根據 Oberlo 的數據，美國市場的份額為 28%）以及整個行業的持續擴張，Shopify 很可能會在這一點上保持強勁的增長率。</p>
</div><h2>Don't sweat the steep valuation too much</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>不必過於擔心高估值</h2>
</div><p>There are legitimate concerns. Chief among them is valuation. Shopify shares are presently priced at nearly 90 times this year's expected per-share profits of $1.39 and 70 times next year's projected bottom line of $1.78 per share. If nothing else, this steep valuation leaves the stock vulnerable to sizable stumbles. Being priced above the consensus target of $118.79 doesn't exactly help either.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>確實存在合理的擔憂。其中最主要的是估值。Shopify 的股票目前的價格幾乎是今年預期每股利潤 1.39 美元的 90 倍，以及明年預計每股利潤 1.78 美元的 70 倍。如果沒有其他因素，這樣的高估值使得股票容易受到較大波動的影響。高於共識目標價 118.79 美元的定價也並沒有帶來幫助。</p>
</div><p>This is one of those cases, however, where the story is so compelling and a company's future is so bright that the market is supportive of a rich valuation. Indeed, the fact that Shopify shares are still trading near February's high and still priced well below their 2021 high is an opportunity.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，這正是一個故事如此引人注目、公司未來如此光明的案例，以至於市場支持高估值。事實上，Shopify 的股票仍然在接近二月份的高點交易，並且仍然遠低於 2021 年的高點，這是一種機會。</p>
</div><p>This window of opportunity probably won't remain open much longer though, if recently reported economic data is any indication of how the economy's faring. While July's jobs report was disappointing, June's retail sales, June's consumer spending, and Q2's estimated GDP growth rate of 3% were all pretty strong. It matters simply because economic strength supports consumerism, including the online shopping that Shopify helps make happen.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>不過，如果最近報告的經濟數據能夠反映經濟的狀況，這個機會窗口可能不會再開放太久。儘管七月份的就業報告令人失望，但六月份的零售銷售、消費者支出以及第二季度估計的 3% GDP 增長率都相當強勁。這一點很重要，因為經濟的強勁支持了消費，包括 Shopify 所促進的在線購物。</p>
</div>

Should You Forget Amazon? Why You Might Want to Buy This Unstoppable Growth Stock Instead

- 亞馬遜自 1997 年上市以來增長超過 300,000%。
- Shopify 通過提供一站式電商解決方案，促進了 2923 億美元的銷售。
- 全球電商平台市場預計到 2033 年將以每年 12% 的速度增長。

你是否應該忘記亞馬遜？為什麼你可能會考慮購買這隻勢不可擋的成長股