<p><strong>標準普爾 500 指數</strong> 經歷了一場近三年的瘋狂牛市。確實，這一基準指數經歷了起伏，尤其是在四月初，當時唐納德·特朗普總統首次宣佈關税時，股市大幅下跌。但標準普爾 500 指數僅用了幾個月就恢復了，目前今年上漲了 6%。</p>
<p>這緊隨 2023 年和 2024 年的強勁表現，期間該指數分別上漲了 24% 和 23%。隨着市場持續小幅上漲，距離 2025 年還有大約五個月，標準普爾 500 指數能否實現不可思議的連續三年上漲超過 20%？歷史表明這不太可能，但一位華爾街策略師認為這將會發生。</p>
<h2>在近 100 年中僅發生過一次</h2>
<p>2023 年和 2024 年股市的表現令人難以置信，但如果標準普爾 500 指數能夠在此基礎上再上漲 13%，那將是幾乎前所未有的。回顧近一個世紀，這樣的連勝紀錄僅發生過一次。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84Mjc1ODQvcGVyc29uLWNvbXB1dGVyLTEuanBnJnc9NzAw?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84Mjc1ODQvcGVyc29uLWNvbXB1dGVyLTEuanBnJnc9NzAw"/></p>
<p>圖片來源：Getty Images。</p>
<p>三十年前，在互聯網泡沫到來之前，標準普爾 500 指數在 1995 年至 1998 年間年均價格漲幅超過 20%，而在 1999 年也僅差不到半個百分點。</p>
<p>一些人認為，當前股市的軌跡與 1990 年代的經歷相似。在那段時間，互聯網熱潮激發了巨大的熱情，投資者正確預測新技術將改變社會。可他們忽視了技術變革往往不會一帆風順，而 1990 年代末也是一個低利率的時期。</p>
<p>如今，股市受到人工智能熱潮的推動，這使得一小部分公司達到了驚人的估值。有些公司的市值已超過數萬億美元。雖然利率並不算低，但可以説市場仍然受益於十年的零利率政策和大量的量化寬鬆。</p>
<h2>這位華爾街分析師預計 2025 年下半年將出現反彈</h2>
<p>最近，<strong>奧本海默</strong> 的策略師約翰·斯托爾茨夫發佈了一份研究報告，預測標準普爾 500 指數將在年底前達到 7100 點，這意味着 2025 年將上漲約 21%。</p>
<p>斯托爾茨夫的部分預測與特朗普政府在貿易談判上取得的進展有關。根據斯托爾茨夫的説法，交易已經開始達成，日本和歐盟之間的協議足以為投資者提供清晰度，消除阻礙市場進一步上漲的不確定性。作為交易的一部分，美國將對來自日本和歐盟的商品徵收 15% 的關税，兩者也將在美國進行數千億的投資。</p>
<p>“基本面正在改善。看看今天的 [3%] GDP 數據。雖然並不完美，但肯定比那些認為我們將進入衰退的人要好得多。此外，迄今為止，盈利預期不僅達到了預期，還超出了預期。” 斯托爾茨夫在最近接受 Yahoo! Finance 採訪時表示。</p>
<p>截至目前，特朗普剛剛對一些國家實施了新的更高關税。然而，情況仍在變化，因此這些更高的關税可能並不是最終的。</p>
<h2>仍然存在短期風險</h2>
<p>我同意斯托爾茨夫的看法，考慮到最近的經濟數據，衰退在短期內似乎不太可能。然而，也有數據顯示宏觀經濟條件開始惡化。</p>
<p>如果通貨膨脹未能降至美聯儲所希望的 2% 目標，還有另一個重大風險。畢竟，強勁的第二季度國內生產總值（GDP）報告表明經濟活動相當強勁。關税率也仍高於預期，大多數在 15% 或以上，這很可能會導致一次性通貨膨脹激增。如果美聯儲主席傑羅姆·鮑威爾認為通貨膨脹失控，他今年不會降息，除非就業市場出現真正的下滑。如果今年沒有降息，這可能會削弱市場的動力。</p>
<p>最終，標準普爾 500 指數可能會勉強實現一個良好的年度表現，但在目前的情況下，再次實現 20% 以上的漲幅更像是一個樂觀的情景，而不是基本情景。</p>

奧本海默控股

<p>標準普爾 500 指數經歷了一波顯著的牛市，2023 年上漲了 24%，2024 年上漲了 23%。目前在 2025 年上漲了 6%，該指數面臨着實現連續第三年超過 20% 漲幅的挑戰，這在近一個世紀內僅實現過一次。奧本海默的策略師約翰·斯托爾茨夫預測到年底將上漲至 7,100 點，理由是基本面改善和貿易談判。然而，風險依然存在，包括通貨膨脹和潛在的聯邦儲備利率決策，使得再次獲得 20% 的漲幅更像是一個樂觀的情景，而非基本情況</p>

<p>The <strong>S&amp;P 500</strong> has been on a wild, nearly three-year bull run. Sure, the benchmark index has experienced its ups and downs, most notably in early April when President Donald Trump's initial tariff announcements sent stocks plunging. But it only took a few months for the S&amp;P 500 to recover, and it's now up 6% this year, as of this writing.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>標準普爾 500 指數</strong> 經歷了一場近三年的瘋狂牛市。確實，這一基準指數經歷了起伏，尤其是在四月初，當時唐納德·特朗普總統首次宣佈關税時，股市大幅下跌。但標準普爾 500 指數僅用了幾個月就恢復了，目前今年上漲了 6%。</p>
</div><p>This follows strong showings in 2023 and 2024, when the index rose 24% and 23%, respectively. With the market continuing to inch higher and about five months to go in 2025, can the S&amp;P 500 do the unthinkable and rise over 20% for three consecutive years? History says it's unlikely, but one Wall Street strategist thinks it will happen.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這緊隨 2023 年和 2024 年的強勁表現，期間該指數分別上漲了 24% 和 23%。隨着市場持續小幅上漲，距離 2025 年還有大約五個月，標準普爾 500 指數能否實現不可思議的連續三年上漲超過 20%？歷史表明這不太可能，但一位華爾街策略師認為這將會發生。</p>
</div><h2>It's only happened one other time in nearly 100 years</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>在近 100 年中僅發生過一次</h2>
</div><p>The stock market's performance in 2023 and 2024 was incredible, but if the S&amp;P 500 somehow manages to claw another 13% higher from here, it would be nearly unprecedented. Looking back nearly a century, such a winning streak has only happened one other time.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>2023 年和 2024 年股市的表現令人難以置信，但如果標準普爾 500 指數能夠在此基礎上再上漲 13%，那將是幾乎前所未有的。回顧近一個世紀，這樣的連勝紀錄僅發生過一次。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84Mjc1ODQvcGVyc29uLWNvbXB1dGVyLTEuanBnJnc9NzAw" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F827584%2Fperson-computer-1.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>圖片來源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><p>Thirty years ago, in the run-up to the dot-com bubble, the S&amp;P 500 delivered more than 20% annual price gains from 1995 through 1998, and it was less than half a percentage point shy of doing so in 1999.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>三十年前，在互聯網泡沫到來之前，標準普爾 500 指數在 1995 年至 1998 年間年均價格漲幅超過 20%，而在 1999 年也僅差不到半個百分點。</p>
</div><p>Some believe the stock market is currently on a similar trajectory to what it experienced in the 1990s. During that time, the internet boom created tremendous enthusiasm as investors rightly predicted the new technology would go on to transform society. What they missed is that technological disruptions rarely move in a straight line, and the late 1990s was also a time of low interest rates.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>一些人認為，當前股市的軌跡與 1990 年代的經歷相似。在那段時間，互聯網熱潮激發了巨大的熱情，投資者正確預測新技術將改變社會。可他們忽視了技術變革往往不會一帆風順，而 1990 年代末也是一個低利率的時期。</p>
</div><p>Today, the stock market is being powered by the artificial intelligence boom, which has sent a small group of companies to meteoric valuations. Some now have multitrillion-dollar market caps. Interest rates aren't exactly low, although one could argue the market may still be riding high from a decade of zero interest rate policy and lots of quantitative easing.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如今，股市受到人工智能熱潮的推動，這使得一小部分公司達到了驚人的估值。有些公司的市值已超過數萬億美元。雖然利率並不算低，但可以説市場仍然受益於十年的零利率政策和大量的量化寬鬆。</p>
</div><h2>This Wall Street analyst sees a back-half surge in 2025</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>這位華爾街分析師預計 2025 年下半年將出現反彈</h2>
</div><p>Recently, <strong>Oppenheimer</strong> strategist John Stoltzfus put out a research note, predicting the S&amp;P 500 would hit 7,100 by the end of the year, implying a roughly 21% move in 2025.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>最近，<strong>奧本海默</strong> 的策略師約翰·斯托爾茨夫發佈了一份研究報告，預測標準普爾 500 指數將在年底前達到 7100 點，這意味着 2025 年將上漲約 21%。</p>
</div><p>Part of Stoltzfus' call has to do with progress the Trump administration is making on trade negotiations. Deals have begun to come in and the agreements between Japan and the European Union are enough to provide clarity to investors and remove the uncertainty that has prevented the market from moving even higher, according to Stoltzfus. As part of the deals, the U.S. will impose 15% tariffs on goods from Japan and the E.U., and both will also make hundreds of billions of investments in the U.S.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>斯托爾茨夫的部分預測與特朗普政府在貿易談判上取得的進展有關。根據斯托爾茨夫的説法，交易已經開始達成，日本和歐盟之間的協議足以為投資者提供清晰度，消除阻礙市場進一步上漲的不確定性。作為交易的一部分，美國將對來自日本和歐盟的商品徵收 15% 的關税，兩者也將在美國進行數千億的投資。</p>
</div><p>&#34;Fundamentals are improving. Look at the [3%] GDP print today. It ain't perfect, but it's certainly a lot better than the crew that was thinking we were going into a recession was thinking [...] in addition to that, you've got earnings expectations not only meeting but beyond expectations another quarter so far,&#34; Stoltzfus said on a recent interview with Yahoo! Finance.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“基本面正在改善。看看今天的 [3%] GDP 數據。雖然並不完美，但肯定比那些認為我們將進入衰退的人要好得多。此外，迄今為止，盈利預期不僅達到了預期，還超出了預期。” 斯托爾茨夫在最近接受 Yahoo! Finance 採訪時表示。</p>
</div><p>Trump has just imposed new higher tariff rates on some countries as of this writing. However, the situation remains fluid, so the higher rates may not be final.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>截至目前，特朗普剛剛對一些國家實施了新的更高關税。然而，情況仍在變化，因此這些更高的關税可能並不是最終的。</p>
</div><h2>There's still near-term risk</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>仍然存在短期風險</h2>
</div><p>I would agree with Stoltzfus that a recession seems unlikely, at least in the near term when you consider recent economic data. However, there has also been data suggesting that macro conditions are beginning to deteriorate.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>我同意斯托爾茨夫的看法，考慮到最近的經濟數據，衰退在短期內似乎不太可能。然而，也有數據顯示宏觀經濟條件開始惡化。</p>
</div><p>There's also another big risk if inflation does not fall to the Federal Reserve's preferred 2% target. After all, the strong second-quarter gross domestic product (GDP) report suggests that economic activity is quite robust. Tariff rates are also still coming in higher than expected, with most at 15% or above, and it's very possible this will create a one-time surge in inflation. Fed Chair Jerome Powell will not cut rates this year if he doesn't believe inflation is under control, unless there is a real downturn in the job market. If rate cuts don't materialize this year, that could take some of the wind out of the market's sails.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如果通貨膨脹未能降至美聯儲所希望的 2% 目標，還有另一個重大風險。畢竟，強勁的第二季度國內生產總值（GDP）報告表明經濟活動相當強勁。關税率也仍高於預期，大多數在 15% 或以上，這很可能會導致一次性通貨膨脹激增。如果美聯儲主席傑羅姆·鮑威爾認為通貨膨脹失控，他今年不會降息，除非就業市場出現真正的下滑。如果今年沒有降息，這可能會削弱市場的動力。</p>
</div><p>Ultimately, the S&amp;P 500 could manage to eke out a solid year, but delivering another 20%-plus gain is more of a bull-case scenario than a base case, as things stand now.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>最終，標準普爾 500 指數可能會勉強實現一個良好的年度表現，但在目前的情況下，再次實現 20% 以上的漲幅更像是一個樂觀的情景，而不是基本情景。</p>
</div>

Will the S&P 500 Index Do the Unthinkable and Rise at Least 20% for the 3rd Consecutive Year? History Says It's Unlikely, but 1 Wall Street Analyst Thinks It Can Happen

- 標普 500 指數經歷了近三年的牛市，2023 和 2024 年分別上漲 24% 和 23%。  
- Oppenheimer 策略師預測 2025 年底標普 500 將達到 7,100 點，漲幅約 21%。  
- 經濟數據改善，但高通脹和利率上升可能影響市場表現。  

標準普爾 500 指數是否會連續第三年上漲至少 20%，做出不可思議的事情？歷史數據顯示這不太可能，但有一位華爾街分析師認為這是可能的