<p>當你想到股市成功時，很難不想到沃倫·巴菲特。巴菲特被稱為奧馬哈的先知，自 1965 年以來一直掌舵 <strong>伯克希爾哈撒韋</strong>（BRK.A -3.04%）（BRK.B -2.85%），但計劃在今年年底以 95 歲的高齡退休。</p>
<p>自巴菲特擔任伯克希爾的負責人以來，它一直是股市中最穩定的頂級表現者之一。從 1964 年到 2024 年，伯克希爾的表現超過了 <strong>標準普爾 500 指數</strong>（^GSPC 1.47%），回報率超過 5500000%，而該指數的回報率大約為 39000%（這還包括再投資的股息）。這分別平均為 19.9% 和 10.4% 的年回報率。</p>
<p>隨着巴菲特在年底將伯克希爾的鑰匙交給格雷格·阿貝爾，許多人可能會想知道伯克希爾是否會繼續保持過去六十年來的強勁表現。在我看來，答案是肯定的，我仍然全力看好這隻股票。</p>
<h2>巴菲特親自挑選格雷格·阿貝爾接任</h2>
<p>投資者已經習慣於信任巴菲特的投資決策，我計劃採取同樣的方式，信任他將伯克希爾交給阿貝爾。阿貝爾目前是伯克希爾哈撒韋能源（BHE）的董事長，也是伯克希爾非保險業務的副董事長，自 2000 年以來一直在公司工作。</p>
<p>阿貝爾的經驗讓我知道，幾乎沒有人比他更有資格接替巴菲特。在伯克希爾的年度會議上，巴菲特甚至表示 “格雷格會比我更成功。” 誠然，巴菲特在離開時的一部分工作是讓投資者充滿信心，但我堅信，如果巴菲特不覺得阿貝爾有能力繼續公司的歷史成功，他不會親自挑選他。</p>
<p>在阿貝爾的領導下，BHE 的收益增長了三倍，他監督了超過 160 億美元的收購。</p>
<h2>伯克希爾龐大的現金儲備為其提供了很大的財務靈活性</h2>
<p>伯克希爾以其收購和對上市公司的投資而聞名，但在過去幾年中，這兩方面的活動都放緩了。在第一季度末，伯克希爾擁有超過 3470 億美元的現金、現金等價物和短期美國國債。這超過了 <strong>美國銀行</strong>、<strong>雪佛龍</strong> 和 <strong>可口可樂</strong>（伯克希爾前五大股票持倉中的三家）的單獨市值。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/57759335f7be169fc65a9a500e55c2c5.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="720" height="609" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/57759335f7be169fc65a9a500e55c2c5.png"/></p>
<p>BRK.B 現金和短期投資（季度）數據來源於 YCharts</p>
<p>這筆鉅額現金儲備為阿貝爾接任後提供了很大的財務靈活性。我不指望他僅僅為了使用現金而動用它，但這確實為潛在機會、股票回購以及未來可能的股息（伯克希爾從未支付過的東西）打開了大門。</p>
<h2>巴菲特的核心業務在沒有他干預的情況下運作</h2>
<p>巴菲特以讓伯克希爾子公司的領導者——如蓋可、BHE、BNSF 鐵路、Pilot 旅行中心及其他幾家公司——在日常運營中不受干擾而聞名。這意味着即使沒有巴菲特的領導，這些企業在現有領導下也應該能夠順利運營。</p>
<p>這種做法一直是伯克希爾商業的長期戰略。通過消除尋求巴菲特批准的需要或避免不必要的公司官僚主義，這些企業能夠迅速做出決策，並依靠各自領域的專家。我不認為這種情況會改變。</p>
<h2>伯克希爾在不費吹灰之力的情況下賺取數十億</h2>
<p>憑藉對眾多上市公司的大額持股，伯克希爾已將自己定位為僅通過股息就能賺取數十億。以下是其前五大持股及其在這些公司當前季度股息下的預期收入：</p>
<table>
<thead>
<tr>
<th>公司</th>
<th>持股數量</th>
<th>季度股息</th>
<th>季度收到的股息</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td><strong>蘋果</strong></td>
<td>300,000,000</td>
<td>$0.26</td>
<td>$78,000,000</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><strong>美國運通</strong></td>
<td>151,610,700</td>
<td>$0.82</td>
<td>$124,320,774</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><strong>美國銀行</strong></td>
<td>631,573,531</td>
<td>$0.28</td>
<td>$176,840,588</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><strong>可口可樂</strong></td>
<td>400,000,000</td>
<td>$0.51</td>
<td>$204,000,000</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><strong>雪佛龍</strong></td>
<td>118,6110,534</td>
<td>$1.70</td>
<td>$201,637,907</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<p>數據來源：伯克希爾哈撒韋 13F 文件。持股數量截至 3 月 31 日。</p>
<p>僅從這五項持股，伯克希爾每季度就能收到超過 7.84 億美元的股息。按年計算，這超過 31 億美元，這比許多標準普爾 500 公司賺取的收入還要多。這是隨着公司增加年度分紅而逐漸增長的收入，並且不需要伯克希爾的任何運營監督。</p>
<p>股息只是讓我對增持伯克希爾充滿信心的因素之一，無論誰在領導。這是一家為長期成功而建立的強大企業集團。</p>

伯克希爾哈撒韋-B

伯克希爾哈撒韋-A

南方兩倍做多伯克希爾

<p>伯克希爾哈撒韋即將迎來重大領導層變動，沃倫·巴菲特計劃在 95 歲時退休，將接力棒交給格雷格·阿貝爾。巴菲特自 1965 年以來一直領導公司，取得了顯著的股市成功。阿貝爾擁有豐富的經驗，預計將維持這一成功。伯克希爾雄厚的現金儲備為未來的機會提供了財務靈活性。公司的子公司獨立運營，確保了順利的運營。儘管領導層發生變動，伯克希爾還受益於其主要持股的可觀分紅收入，增強了對其長期生存能力的信心</p>

<p>When you think of stock market success, it's hard not to think about Warren Buffett. Buffett, known as the Oracle of Omaha, has been at the helm of <strong>Berkshire Hathaway</strong>(BRK.A -3.04%) (BRK.B -2.85%) since 1965 but plans to retire at the end of this year at the age of 95.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>當你想到股市成功時，很難不想到沃倫·巴菲特。巴菲特被稱為奧馬哈的先知，自 1965 年以來一直掌舵 <strong>伯克希爾哈撒韋</strong>（BRK.A -3.04%）（BRK.B -2.85%），但計劃在今年年底以 95 歲的高齡退休。</p>
</div><p>Since Buffett has been the head of Berkshire, it has been one of the stock market's most consistent top performers. From 1964 to 2024, Berkshire has outperformed the <strong>S&amp;P 500</strong>(^GSPC 1.47%), returning more than 5,500,000% compared to the index's roughly 39,000% (and that's including reinvested dividends). This averages out to 19.9% and 10.4% annual returns, respectively.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>自巴菲特擔任伯克希爾的負責人以來，它一直是股市中最穩定的頂級表現者之一。從 1964 年到 2024 年，伯克希爾的表現超過了 <strong>標準普爾 500 指數</strong>（^GSPC 1.47%），回報率超過 5500000%，而該指數的回報率大約為 39000%（這還包括再投資的股息）。這分別平均為 19.9% 和 10.4% 的年回報率。</p>
</div><p>With Buffett leaving the keys to Berkshire to Greg Abel at the end of the year, many may wonder if Berkshire will continue to be the juggernaut it has been during the past six decades. In my opinion, the answer is yes, and I'm still all in on the stock.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>隨着巴菲特在年底將伯克希爾的鑰匙交給格雷格·阿貝爾，許多人可能會想知道伯克希爾是否會繼續保持過去六十年來的強勁表現。在我看來，答案是肯定的，我仍然全力看好這隻股票。</p>
</div><h2>Buffett handpicked Greg Abel to succeed him</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>巴菲特親自挑選格雷格·阿貝爾接任</h2>
</div><p>Investors have grown accustomed to trusting Buffett's investing moves, and I plan to take the same approach, trusting him to leave Berkshire in great hands with Abel. Abel is currently the chairman of Berkshire Hathaway Energy (BHE) and vice chairman of Berkshire's non-insurance operations and has been with the company since 2000.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>投資者已經習慣於信任巴菲特的投資決策，我計劃採取同樣的方式，信任他將伯克希爾交給阿貝爾。阿貝爾目前是伯克希爾哈撒韋能源（BHE）的董事長，也是伯克希爾非保險業務的副董事長，自 2000 年以來一直在公司工作。</p>
</div><p>Abel's experience lets me know that few, if anybody, are as qualified to follow up Buffett. At Berkshire's annual meeting in May, Buffett even said that &#34;Greg will be more successful than I have been.&#34; Admittedly, part of Buffett's job on the way out is to instill confidence in investors, but I firmly believe Buffett wouldn't have handpicked Abel if he didn't feel as though he is more than capable of continuing the company's historical success.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>阿貝爾的經驗讓我知道，幾乎沒有人比他更有資格接替巴菲特。在伯克希爾的年度會議上，巴菲特甚至表示 “格雷格會比我更成功。” 誠然，巴菲特在離開時的一部分工作是讓投資者充滿信心，但我堅信，如果巴菲特不覺得阿貝爾有能力繼續公司的歷史成功，他不會親自挑選他。</p>
</div><p>Under Abel's leadership, BHE has tripled its earnings, and he has overseen more than $16 billion in acquisitions.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在阿貝爾的領導下，BHE 的收益增長了三倍，他監督了超過 160 億美元的收購。</p>
</div><h2>Berkshire's large cash pile leaves it with a lot of financial flexibility</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>伯克希爾龐大的現金儲備為其提供了很大的財務靈活性</h2>
</div><p>Berkshire is known for its acquisitions and stakes in public companies, but it has slowed down on both during the past couple of years. At the end of the first quarter, Berkshire had more than $347 billion in cash, cash equivalents, and short-term U.S. Treasury bills. That's more than the individual market caps of <strong>Bank of America</strong>, <strong>Chevron</strong>, and <strong>Coca-Cola</strong> (three of Berkshire's top five stock holdings).</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>伯克希爾以其收購和對上市公司的投資而聞名，但在過去幾年中，這兩方面的活動都放緩了。在第一季度末，伯克希爾擁有超過 3470 億美元的現金、現金等價物和短期美國國債。這超過了 <strong>美國銀行</strong>、<strong>雪佛龍</strong> 和 <strong>可口可樂</strong>（伯克希爾前五大股票持倉中的三家）的單獨市值。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/57759335f7be169fc65a9a500e55c2c5.png" alt="" original-src="https://media.ycharts.com/charts/57759335f7be169fc65a9a500e55c2c5.png"/></p>
<p>BRK.B Cash and Short Term Investments (Quarterly) data by YCharts</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>BRK.B 現金和短期投資（季度）數據來源於 YCharts</p>
</div><p>This large cash pile leaves Abel with a lot of financial flexibility once he takes over. I wouldn't expect him to deploy the cash for the sake of doing so, but it does leave the door open for potential opportunities, stock buybacks, and potentially a future dividend (something Berkshire has never paid).</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這筆鉅額現金儲備為阿貝爾接任後提供了很大的財務靈活性。我不指望他僅僅為了使用現金而動用它，但這確實為潛在機會、股票回購以及未來可能的股息（伯克希爾從未支付過的東西）打開了大門。</p>
</div><h2>Buffett's core businesses operate without his interference</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>巴菲特的核心業務在沒有他干預的情況下運作</h2>
</div><p>Buffett is known for letting the leaders of Berkshire's subsidiaries -- Geico, BHE, BNSF Railway, Pilot Travel Centers, and a handful of others -- operate without interfering in their day-to-day operations. This means that even without Buffett leading the way, these businesses should continue running smoothly under their current leadership.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>巴菲特以讓伯克希爾子公司的領導者——如蓋可、BHE、BNSF 鐵路、Pilot 旅行中心及其他幾家公司——在日常運營中不受干擾而聞名。這意味着即使沒有巴菲特的領導，這些企業在現有領導下也應該能夠順利運營。</p>
</div><p>This approach has been a longtime strategy in Berkshire's business. By removing the need to seek Buffett's approval or falling victim to unneeded corporate bureaucracy, these businesses are able to make quick decisions and lean on the respective experts in each field. I don't expect this to change.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這種做法一直是伯克希爾商業的長期戰略。通過消除尋求巴菲特批准的需要或避免不必要的公司官僚主義，這些企業能夠迅速做出決策，並依靠各自領域的專家。我不認為這種情況會改變。</p>
</div><h2>Berkshire makes billions without lifting a finger</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>伯克希爾在不費吹灰之力的情況下賺取數十億</h2>
</div><p>With a large stake in so many public companies, Berkshire has positioned itself to make billions solely from dividends. Below are its top five holdings and how much it can expect at those companies' current quarterly dividends:</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>憑藉對眾多上市公司的大額持股，伯克希爾已將自己定位為僅通過股息就能賺取數十億。以下是其前五大持股及其在這些公司當前季度股息下的預期收入：</p>
</div><table>
<thead>
<tr>
<th>Company</th>
<th>Shares Owed</th>
<th>Quarterly Dividend</th>
<th>Dividends Received Quarterly</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td><strong>Apple</strong></td>
<td>300,000,000</td>
<td>$0.26</td>
<td>$78,000,000</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><strong>American Express</strong></td>
<td>151,610,700</td>
<td>$0.82</td>
<td>$124,320,774</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><strong>Bank of America</strong></td>
<td>631,573,531</td>
<td>$0.28</td>
<td>$176,840,588</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><strong>Coca-Cola</strong></td>
<td>400,000,000</td>
<td>$0.51</td>
<td>$204,000,000</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><strong>Chevron</strong></td>
<td>118,6110,534</td>
<td>$1.70</td>
<td>$201,637,907</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<div class="lb-trans"><table>
<thead>
<tr>
<th>公司</th>
<th>持股數量</th>
<th>季度股息</th>
<th>季度收到的股息</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td><strong>蘋果</strong></td>
<td>300,000,000</td>
<td>$0.26</td>
<td>$78,000,000</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><strong>美國運通</strong></td>
<td>151,610,700</td>
<td>$0.82</td>
<td>$124,320,774</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><strong>美國銀行</strong></td>
<td>631,573,531</td>
<td>$0.28</td>
<td>$176,840,588</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><strong>可口可樂</strong></td>
<td>400,000,000</td>
<td>$0.51</td>
<td>$204,000,000</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><strong>雪佛龍</strong></td>
<td>118,6110,534</td>
<td>$1.70</td>
<td>$201,637,907</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</div><p>Data source: Berkshire Hathaway 13F filing. Share amounts as of March 31.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>數據來源：伯克希爾哈撒韋 13F 文件。持股數量截至 3 月 31 日。</p>
</div><p>From just five holdings, Berkshire receives more than $784 million in quarterly dividends. Annually, that's more than $3.1 billion, which is more than many S&amp;P 500 companies earn in revenue. This is income that grows over time as companies increase their annual payouts, and it doesn't require any operational oversight on Berkshire's behalf.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>僅從這五項持股，伯克希爾每季度就能收到超過 7.84 億美元的股息。按年計算，這超過 31 億美元，這比許多標準普爾 500 公司賺取的收入還要多。這是隨着公司增加年度分紅而逐漸增長的收入，並且不需要伯克希爾的任何運營監督。</p>
</div><p>The dividend is just one part of the equation that makes me confident in loading up on Berkshire, regardless of who's leading the charge. It's a powerful conglomerate built for long-term success.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>股息只是讓我對增持伯克希爾充滿信心的因素之一，無論誰在領導。這是一家為長期成功而建立的強大企業集團。</p>
</div>

A Major Shake-Up Is Coming to Berkshire Hathaway This Year. Here's Why I'm Still All In on the Stock

- 巴菲特將於年底退休，接任者為格雷格·阿貝爾。  
- 伯克希爾哈撒韋自 1965 年以來表現優異，年均回報率 19.9%。  
- 公司擁有超過 3470 億美元現金，未來有財務靈活性。

伯克希爾哈撒韋今年將發生重大變革。以下是我依然堅定持有該股票的理由