<p>七月份的聯邦儲備會議可能成為三十多年來最分裂的一次，因為兩位關鍵的董事會成員，<strong>Michelle Bowman</strong> 和 <strong>Christopher Waller</strong>，投票支持降息，而主席 <strong>Jerome Powell</strong> 和大多數人則維持利率不變。</p>
<ul>
<li><strong>TLT ETF 突破了阻力位。查看圖表。</strong></li>
</ul>
<p>但令人失望的七月就業報告顯示，之前幾個月的就業人數大幅削減了 258,000 個，這引發了中央銀行家和華爾街分析師的新緊迫感，推動降息的呼聲——甚至來自一些美聯儲最鷹派的聲音。</p>
<h3>Kashkari 轉向鴿派：“經濟正在放緩”</h3>
<p>明尼阿波利斯聯邦儲備銀行行長 <strong>Neel Kashkari</strong>，長期以來以支持緊縮政策而聞名，在週三的 CNBC《Squawk Box》節目中表示，經濟前景正在迅速惡化。</p>
<p>“真實的基礎經濟正在放緩，” Kashkari 説。“在短期內，可能需要開始調整聯邦基金利率。”</p>
<p>他表示，如果當前趨勢持續，降息可能是必要的，並對特朗普時代關税的通脹影響表示懷疑，指出其影響可能需要幾個季度才能顯現。</p>
<p>“我對關税對通脹的最終影響尚無信心，” Kashkari 説。“關税現在是一個未知數。”</p>
<h3>高盛認為經濟接近 ‘停滯速度’</h3>
<p><strong>高盛</strong> 的經濟學家們呼應了 Kashkari 的擔憂，強調就業市場的疲軟是由更廣泛的經濟放緩加劇的貿易摩擦所驅動。</p>
<p>在週三分享的一份報告中，首席經濟學家 <strong>Jan Hatzius</strong> 警告稱，裁員和修正正在自我強化。</p>
<p>“週五的就業數據強化了我們對美國經濟增長接近停滯速度的看法，” Hatzius 説。</p>
<p>高盛指出，美國實際 GDP 在 2025 年上半年僅增長了 1.2% 的年化率，幾乎比他們的潛在產出估計低了整整一個百分點。該公司預計下半年也將出現類似疲軟的增長。</p>
<p>Hatzius 將當前的疲軟部分歸因於更高的關税，這導致產出放緩、消費者支出減少和招聘疲軟。</p>
<p>“實際可支配收入和消費者支出可能會非常緩慢地增長，不僅是因為就業增長疲軟，還因為關税對消費者價格的傳導效應仍在後面，” 他説。</p>
<h3>高盛預計一年內降息五次</h3>
<p>高盛的基本預期仍然是九月、十月和十二月各降息 25 個基點，隨後在 2026 年上半年再降兩次。</p>
<p>然而，如果下一個就業報告顯示失業率再次上升或初請失業金人數激增，九月可能會考慮降息 50 個基點。</p>
<p>市場目前預計九月降息 25 個基點的概率為 93%，十月再次降息的概率為 61%。</p>
<p>立即閲讀：<strong>通脹警報已開啓——特朗普的關税是罪魁禍首</strong></p>
<p><em>照片來源：Shutterstock</em></p>

高盛

<p>七月份的聯邦儲備會議上，關於降息的投票出現分歧，博曼和沃勒表示反對。由於裁員 25.8 萬個的糟糕就業報告，市場呼籲提前降息。明尼阿波利斯聯邦儲備銀行的卡什卡里指出經濟正在放緩，而高盛則警告增長接近停滯速度，預測到年底將有三次降息，並在 2026 年再降兩次。市場預計九月份降息 25 個基點的概率為 93%</p>

<p>The July Federal Reserve meeting may go down as the most divided in over three decades, as two key board members, <strong>Michelle Bowman</strong> and <strong>Christopher Waller</strong>, broke ranks by voting for a rate cut, while Chair <strong>Jerome Powell</strong> and the majority held rates steady.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>七月份的聯邦儲備會議可能成為三十多年來最分裂的一次，因為兩位關鍵的董事會成員，<strong>Michelle Bowman</strong> 和 <strong>Christopher Waller</strong>，投票支持降息，而主席 <strong>Jerome Powell</strong> 和大多數人則維持利率不變。</p>
</div><ul>
<li><strong>TLT ETF is breaking past resistance. Check the chart here.</strong></li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li><strong>TLT ETF 突破了阻力位。查看圖表。</strong></li>
</ul>
</div><p>But a dismal July jobs report, which saw a massive 258,000 jobs slashed from prior months' figures, has sparked new urgency among central bankers and Wall Street analysts to pull forward rate cuts—even from some of the Fed's most hawkish voices.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但令人失望的七月就業報告顯示，之前幾個月的就業人數大幅削減了 258,000 個，這引發了中央銀行家和華爾街分析師的新緊迫感，推動降息的呼聲——甚至來自一些美聯儲最鷹派的聲音。</p>
</div><h3>Kashkari Turns Dovish: “The Economy Is Slowing”</h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3>Kashkari 轉向鴿派：“經濟正在放緩”</h3>
</div><p>Minneapolis Fed president <strong>Neel Kashkari</strong>, long known for supporting tighter policy, told CNBC's Squawk Box on Wednesday that the economic outlook is softening fast.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>明尼阿波利斯聯邦儲備銀行行長 <strong>Neel Kashkari</strong>，長期以來以支持緊縮政策而聞名，在週三的 CNBC《Squawk Box》節目中表示，經濟前景正在迅速惡化。</p>
</div><p>&#34;The real underlying economy is slowing,&#34; Kashkari said. &#34;In the near term, it may become appropriate to start adjusting the federal funds rate.&#34;</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“真實的基礎經濟正在放緩，” Kashkari 説。“在短期內，可能需要開始調整聯邦基金利率。”</p>
</div><p>He signaled that rate cuts could be necessary if current trends continue and cast doubt on the inflationary impact of Trump-era tariffs, noting that their effects may take several quarters to materialize.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>他表示，如果當前趨勢持續，降息可能是必要的，並對特朗普時代關税的通脹影響表示懷疑，指出其影響可能需要幾個季度才能顯現。</p>
</div><p>&#34;I don't have confidence yet in what the ultimate effects of tariffs are going to be on inflation,&#34; Kashkari said. &#34;Tariffs are just such an unknown right now.&#34;</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“我對關税對通脹的最終影響尚無信心，” Kashkari 説。“關税現在是一個未知數。”</p>
</div><h3>Goldman Sachs Sees Economy Near ‘Stall Speed'</h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3>高盛認為經濟接近 ‘停滯速度’</h3>
</div><p>Economists at <strong>Goldman Sachs</strong> echoed Kashkari's concerns, highlighting that job market weakness is being driven by a broader economic slowdown exacerbated by trade frictions.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>高盛</strong> 的經濟學家們呼應了 Kashkari 的擔憂，強調就業市場的疲軟是由更廣泛的經濟放緩加劇的貿易摩擦所驅動。</p>
</div><p>In a note shared Wednesday, chief economist <strong>Jan Hatzius</strong> warned that job cuts and revisions are becoming self-reinforcing.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在週三分享的一份報告中，首席經濟學家 <strong>Jan Hatzius</strong> 警告稱，裁員和修正正在自我強化。</p>
</div><p>&#34;Friday's jobs numbers reinforced our view that US growth is near stall speed,&#34; Hatzius said.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“週五的就業數據強化了我們對美國經濟增長接近停滯速度的看法，” Hatzius 説。</p>
</div><p>Goldman notes that U.S. real GDP grew just 1.2% annualized in the first half of 2025, nearly a full point below their estimate of potential output. The firm expects similarly weak growth in the second half.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>高盛指出，美國實際 GDP 在 2025 年上半年僅增長了 1.2% 的年化率，幾乎比他們的潛在產出估計低了整整一個百分點。該公司預計下半年也將出現類似疲軟的增長。</p>
</div><p>Hatzius attributes the current softness in part to higher tariffs, which are feeding through to slower output, reduced consumer spending, and weaker hiring.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Hatzius 將當前的疲軟部分歸因於更高的關税，這導致產出放緩、消費者支出減少和招聘疲軟。</p>
</div><p>“Real disposable income and consumer spending are likely to grow very slowly, not just because of the weakness in job growth but also because most of the pass-through from tariffs to consumer prices is still ahead of us,” he said.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“實際可支配收入和消費者支出可能會非常緩慢地增長，不僅是因為就業增長疲軟，還因為關税對消費者價格的傳導效應仍在後面，” 他説。</p>
</div><h3>Goldman Eyes Five Rate Cuts In A Year</h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3>高盛預計一年內降息五次</h3>
</div><p>Goldman's base case remains for three 25-basis-point rate cuts in September, October and December, followed by two more cuts in the first half of 2026.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>高盛的基本預期仍然是九月、十月和十二月各降息 25 個基點，隨後在 2026 年上半年再降兩次。</p>
</div><p>However, if the next jobs report shows another uptick in unemployment or a spike in initial claims, a 50-basis-point cut in September could be on the table.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，如果下一個就業報告顯示失業率再次上升或初請失業金人數激增，九月可能會考慮降息 50 個基點。</p>
</div><p>Markets currently price in a 93% probability of a 25-basis-point rate cut in September, with odds of a second cut in October at 61%.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>市場目前預計九月降息 25 個基點的概率為 93%，十月再次降息的概率為 61%。</p>
</div><p>Read now: <strong>The Inflation Alarm Is On—And Trump’s Tariffs Are To Blame</strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>立即閲讀：<strong>通脹警報已開啓——特朗普的關税是罪魁禍首</strong></p>
</div><p><em>Photo: Shutterstock</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>照片來源：Shutterstock</em></p>
</div>

Another Fed Official Backs A Rate Cut—Goldman Sees Trouble Ahead If The Fed Waits

- 美聯儲七月會議出現分歧，部分成員支持降息。  
- 經濟放緩和就業數據疲軟引發降息緊迫感。  
- 高盛預計未來一年將有五次降息。

又一位美聯儲官員支持降息——高盛警告稱，如果美聯儲繼續觀望，可能會面臨麻煩