<p><strong>禮來</strong>(LLY -14.23%) 的股票今年大幅下跌。截至 2025 年 8 月 7 日，它的價值已經損失了 17%。考慮到近年來取得的巨大增長，這對於頂級醫療保健股票來説並不尋常。週四，儘管最近的財報看起來相當強勁，但該股票在公佈財報後暴跌了 14%。</p>
<p>該股票表現不佳，如果短期內情況沒有改善，禮來將面臨自 2008 年以來最糟糕的表現。公司是否陷入了重大困境，或者這實際上是投資於這隻醫療保健股票的好時機，因為它最近創下了 52 周的新低？</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84Mjg1NTMvY29uY2VybmVkLXBlcnNvbi1sb29raW5nLWF0LWEtcGllY2Utb2YtcGFwZXIuanBnJnc9NzAw?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84Mjg1NTMvY29uY2VybmVkLXBlcnNvbi1sb29raW5nLWF0LWEtcGllY2Utb2YtcGFwZXIuanBnJnc9NzAw"/></p>
<p>圖片來源：Getty Images。</p>
<h2>盈利失望，儘管上調了指引</h2>
<p>週四，禮來公佈了 2025 年第二季度的財務數據。截止到 6 月 30 日，該公司的銷售額增長了 38%，達到了 156 億美元，超出了分析師預測的 147 億美元。淨收入幾乎翻了一番，增長了 91%，達到了 57 億美元。其調整後的每股利潤為 6.31 美元，超過了華爾街預期的 5.57 美元。</p>
<p>公司上調了全年銷售和淨收入的指引，但警告稱這些估計並未考慮到對進口藥品徵收關税可能對其業務產生的影響。另一個對股票造成壓力的因素是公司肥胖藥物 orforglipron 的臨牀試驗數據。在最高劑量下，患者的體重減少超過 12%，這並沒有達到分析師的預期。考慮到使用公司 GLP-1 減肥藥 Zepbound 的患者可以減輕超過 25% 的體重，投資者可能擔心禮來的未來增長可能沒有之前看起來那麼樂觀。</p>
<h2>禮來的股票自大蕭條以來表現不佳</h2>
<p>在週四的拋售之前，該股票正處於自 2016 年以來最糟糕的一年。但在 orforglipron 試驗的令人失望的消息之後，該股票現在看起來可能會比 2016 年近 13% 的下跌表現更差。它現在可能正朝着自 2008 年大蕭條以來最糟糕的表現邁進，當時其股價下跌了近 25%。</p>
<table>
<thead>
<tr>
<th>年份</th>
<th>標普 500 回報</th>
<th>禮來股票回報</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>2024</td>
<td>23.31%</td>
<td>32.44%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>2023</td>
<td>24.23%</td>
<td>59.34%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>2022</td>
<td>-19.44%</td>
<td>32.45%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>2021</td>
<td>26.89%</td>
<td>63.60%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>2020</td>
<td>16.26%</td>
<td>28.46%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>2019</td>
<td>28.88%</td>
<td>13.58%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>2018</td>
<td>-6.24%</td>
<td>37.01%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>2017</td>
<td>19.42%</td>
<td>14.83%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>2016</td>
<td>9.54%</td>
<td>-12.71%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>2015</td>
<td>-0.73%</td>
<td>22.13%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>2014</td>
<td>11.39%</td>
<td>35.27%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>2013</td>
<td>29.60%</td>
<td>3.41%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>2012</td>
<td>13.41%</td>
<td>18.67%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>2011</td>
<td>0.00%</td>
<td>18.61%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>2010</td>
<td>12.78%</td>
<td>-1.88%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>2009</td>
<td>23.45%</td>
<td>-11.32%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>2008</td>
<td>-38.49%</td>
<td>-24.57%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<p>表格由作者提供。數據來源：YCharts。</p>
<p>禮來的股票突顯了投資於高估值股票的一個重大風險——預期也很高。它通常的市盈率超過 60 倍，有時甚至超過 100 倍的歷史利潤。由於預期禮來在未來幾年將實現更大的增長，投資者為禮來支付了高額溢價，因為其前景看好的 GLP-1 藥物。當消息傳出 orforglipron 可能沒有預期的那麼好時，股票應聲下跌。</p>
<h2>你現在應該購買禮來股票嗎？</h2>
<p>禮來是一家值得長期投資的頂級醫療保健公司，我認為只要你不急於快速獲利，它可以成為一個絕佳的買入機會。不幸的是，市場有時會反覆無常，對任何負面消息做出強烈反應。但事實是，禮來在 GLP-1 領域處於領先地位，其業務並不依賴於單一藥物。它正在努力擴大規模並開發更多產品。orforglipron 的臨牀試驗結果不佳可能令人失望，但這不應阻止你投資於這家整體上仍然優秀的企業。</p>
<p>禮來的股票自 2024 年初以來未曾如此低迷，現在可能是長期投資於該業務的好時機。</p>

禮來

<p>禮來的股票在 2025 年下跌了 17%，在最近的財報發佈後大幅下滑 14%，儘管銷售和淨收入增長強勁。公司提高了業績指引，但警告可能受到藥品關税的影響。由於其減肥藥 orforglipron 的試驗結果令人失望，市場對未來增長產生了擔憂。該股票有望創下自 2008 年以來的最差表現，這讓投資者對是否現在買入產生了疑問，因為它仍然是 GLP-1 市場的領導者，並且正在開發更多產品</p>

<p><strong>Eli Lilly</strong>(LLY -14.23%) stock is down big this year. It has lost 17% of its value thus far in 2025 (returns as of Aug. 7). It's not usual territory for the top healthcare stock to be in, given the tremendous growth it has achieved in recent years. On Thursday, the stock crashed 14% after reporting its recent earnings numbers, despite them seemingly looking strong.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>禮來</strong>(LLY -14.23%) 的股票今年大幅下跌。截至 2025 年 8 月 7 日，它的價值已經損失了 17%。考慮到近年來取得的巨大增長，這對於頂級醫療保健股票來説並不尋常。週四，儘管最近的財報看起來相當強勁，但該股票在公佈財報後暴跌了 14%。</p>
</div><p>The stock is struggling badly, and if things don't improve in short order, Eli Lilly will be on track for its worst performance since 2008. Is the company in big trouble, or could this actually be a great time to invest in the healthcare stock, with it recently hitting a new 52-week low?</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>該股票表現不佳，如果短期內情況沒有改善，禮來將面臨自 2008 年以來最糟糕的表現。公司是否陷入了重大困境，或者這實際上是投資於這隻醫療保健股票的好時機，因為它最近創下了 52 周的新低？</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84Mjg1NTMvY29uY2VybmVkLXBlcnNvbi1sb29raW5nLWF0LWEtcGllY2Utb2YtcGFwZXIuanBnJnc9NzAw" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F828553%2Fconcerned-person-looking-at-a-piece-of-paper.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>圖片來源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><h2>Earnings disappointment, despite guidance raise</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>盈利失望，儘管上調了指引</h2>
</div><p>On Thursday, Eli Lilly reported its second-quarter numbers for 2025. For the period ending June 30, its sales rose by 38% to $15.6 billion, which was better than what analysts were projecting -- $14.7 billion. Net income nearly doubled, rising by 91% to $5.7 billion. Its adjusted per-share profit of $6.31 came in better than Wall Street estimates of $5.57.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>週四，禮來公佈了 2025 年第二季度的財務數據。截止到 6 月 30 日，該公司的銷售額增長了 38%，達到了 156 億美元，超出了分析師預測的 147 億美元。淨收入幾乎翻了一番，增長了 91%，達到了 57 億美元。其調整後的每股利潤為 6.31 美元，超過了華爾街預期的 5.57 美元。</p>
</div><p>The company boosted its guidance for the year on both the top and bottom lines, but it cautioned that those estimates did not factor in the effect that tariffs on imported pharmaceuticals may have on its business. Another factor which weighed on the stock was trial data on the company's obesity pill, orforglipron. On the highest dose, patients lost over 12% of their body weight, which wasn't as much as analysts were expecting. Given that people using the company's GLP-1 weight loss drug, Zepbound, can lose over 25% of their body weight, investors may be worried that Eli Lilly's future growth may not be as promising as it may have looked before.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>公司上調了全年銷售和淨收入的指引，但警告稱這些估計並未考慮到對進口藥品徵收關税可能對其業務產生的影響。另一個對股票造成壓力的因素是公司肥胖藥物 orforglipron 的臨牀試驗數據。在最高劑量下，患者的體重減少超過 12%，這並沒有達到分析師的預期。考慮到使用公司 GLP-1 減肥藥 Zepbound 的患者可以減輕超過 25% 的體重，投資者可能擔心禮來的未來增長可能沒有之前看起來那麼樂觀。</p>
</div><h2>Eli Lilly stock hasn't been performing this badly since the Great Recession</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>禮來的股票自大蕭條以來表現不佳</h2>
</div><p>Prior to Thursday's sell-off, the stock was on track for its worst year since 2016. But after the underwhelming news from the orforglipron trial, the stock is now looking like it may do worse than the near 13% decline it incurred in 2016. It could now be headed for its worst performance since the Great Recession, in 2008, when its shares fell by almost 25%.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在週四的拋售之前，該股票正處於自 2016 年以來最糟糕的一年。但在 orforglipron 試驗的令人失望的消息之後，該股票現在看起來可能會比 2016 年近 13% 的下跌表現更差。它現在可能正朝着自 2008 年大蕭條以來最糟糕的表現邁進，當時其股價下跌了近 25%。</p>
</div><table>
<thead>
<tr>
<th>Year</th>
<th>S&amp;P 500 Return</th>
<th>Eli Lilly Stock Return</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>2024</td>
<td>23.31%</td>
<td>32.44%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>2023</td>
<td>24.23%</td>
<td>59.34%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>2022</td>
<td>-19.44%</td>
<td>32.45%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>2021</td>
<td>26.89%</td>
<td>63.60%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>2020</td>
<td>16.26%</td>
<td>28.46%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>2019</td>
<td>28.88%</td>
<td>13.58%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>2018</td>
<td>-6.24%</td>
<td>37.01%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>2017</td>
<td>19.42%</td>
<td>14.83%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>2016</td>
<td>9.54%</td>
<td>-12.71%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>2015</td>
<td>-0.73%</td>
<td>22.13%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>2014</td>
<td>11.39%</td>
<td>35.27%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>2013</td>
<td>29.60%</td>
<td>3.41%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>2012</td>
<td>13.41%</td>
<td>18.67%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>2011</td>
<td>0.00%</td>
<td>18.61%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>2010</td>
<td>12.78%</td>
<td>-1.88%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>2009</td>
<td>23.45%</td>
<td>-11.32%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>2008</td>
<td>-38.49%</td>
<td>-24.57%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<div class="lb-trans"><table>
<thead>
<tr>
<th>年份</th>
<th>標普 500 回報</th>
<th>禮來股票回報</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>2024</td>
<td>23.31%</td>
<td>32.44%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>2023</td>
<td>24.23%</td>
<td>59.34%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>2022</td>
<td>-19.44%</td>
<td>32.45%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>2021</td>
<td>26.89%</td>
<td>63.60%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>2020</td>
<td>16.26%</td>
<td>28.46%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>2019</td>
<td>28.88%</td>
<td>13.58%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>2018</td>
<td>-6.24%</td>
<td>37.01%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>2017</td>
<td>19.42%</td>
<td>14.83%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>2016</td>
<td>9.54%</td>
<td>-12.71%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>2015</td>
<td>-0.73%</td>
<td>22.13%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>2014</td>
<td>11.39%</td>
<td>35.27%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>2013</td>
<td>29.60%</td>
<td>3.41%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>2012</td>
<td>13.41%</td>
<td>18.67%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>2011</td>
<td>0.00%</td>
<td>18.61%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>2010</td>
<td>12.78%</td>
<td>-1.88%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>2009</td>
<td>23.45%</td>
<td>-11.32%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>2008</td>
<td>-38.49%</td>
<td>-24.57%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</div><p>Table by author. Data source: YCharts.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>表格由作者提供。數據來源：YCharts。</p>
</div><p>Eli Lilly's stock highlights one of the big risks with investing in a stock that's trading at a high valuation -- expectations are also elevated. It's normally trading at over 60 times earnings and sometimes even more than 100 times its trailing profits. Investors have been paying a big premium for Eli Lilly because of the expectation that it will achieve even more growth in the years ahead, due to its promising GLP-1 drugs. When news came that orforglipron perhaps wouldn't be as good as expected, the stock nosedived.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>禮來的股票突顯了投資於高估值股票的一個重大風險——預期也很高。它通常的市盈率超過 60 倍，有時甚至超過 100 倍的歷史利潤。由於預期禮來在未來幾年將實現更大的增長，投資者為禮來支付了高額溢價，因為其前景看好的 GLP-1 藥物。當消息傳出 orforglipron 可能沒有預期的那麼好時，股票應聲下跌。</p>
</div><h2>Should you buy Eli Lilly stock right now?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>你現在應該購買禮來股票嗎？</h2>
</div><p>Eli Lilly is a top healthcare company to invest in for the long haul, and I think that as long as you aren't in a rush to turn a quick profit, it can make for an excellent buy. Unfortunately, the market can sometimes be fickle and react strongly to any kind of negative developments. But the fact remains that Eli Lilly is a leader in the GLP-1 space and its business isn't dependent on just a single drug. It's working on getting bigger and developing more products. Poor trial results from orforglipron may be disappointing, but they shouldn't deter you from investing in what's still an excellent business overall.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>禮來是一家值得長期投資的頂級醫療保健公司，我認為只要你不急於快速獲利，它可以成為一個絕佳的買入機會。不幸的是，市場有時會反覆無常，對任何負面消息做出強烈反應。但事實是，禮來在 GLP-1 領域處於領先地位，其業務並不依賴於單一藥物。它正在努力擴大規模並開發更多產品。orforglipron 的臨牀試驗結果不佳可能令人失望，但這不應阻止你投資於這家整體上仍然優秀的企業。</p>
</div><p>Shares of Eli Lilly haven't been this low since early 2024, and now may be a great time to invest in the business for the long haul.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>禮來的股票自 2024 年初以來未曾如此低迷，現在可能是長期投資於該業務的好時機。</p>
</div>

禮來的股票正面臨自 2008 年以來的最差表現。投資者是否應該感到擔憂？