<p><strong>英偉達</strong>(NVDA 1.05%) 是全球最大的公司，市值約為 4.4 萬億美元。它之所以能達到這個地位，得益於其在處理數據中心訓練和推理工作負載的人工智能 (AI) 芯片市場中的主導地位。</p>
<p>對 AI 芯片的強勁需求幫助英偉達在過去幾個季度實現了卓越的增長。儘管 2025 年開局艱難，但截至 8 月 4 日市場收盤，其出色的增長使其在過去一年中市場收益達到了 68%。事實上，英偉達股票的回報輕鬆超過了同期 <strong>標準普爾 500</strong> 指數的 18% 增長。</p>
<p>然而，投資者可能會想知道英偉達是否有能力在未來一年內維持其勢頭，特別是考慮到其巨大的市值和高估值。在本文中，我將更仔細地研究英偉達的催化因素，並看看該股票在一年後可能會處於何種狀態。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MjgwNDQvYWktd3JpdHRlbi1vbi1jaXJjdWl0LWJvYXJkLmpwZyZ3PTcwMA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="700" height="376" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MjgwNDQvYWktd3JpdHRlbi1vbi1jaXJjdWl0LWJvYXJkLmpwZyZ3PTcwMA"/></p>
<p>圖片來源：Getty Images。</p>
<h2>這些發展表明英偉達還有更多上漲空間</h2>
<p>全球雲計算巨頭和各國政府的大規模支出在推動英偉達最近幾個季度的卓越收入和盈利增長中發揮了核心作用。好的一面是，英偉達可以繼續依靠這些增長渠道。</p>
<p>例如，<strong>微軟</strong>、<strong>亞馬遜</strong>、<strong>谷歌母公司 Alphabet</strong> 和 <strong>Meta Platforms</strong> 等大型科技公司的資本支出預計將在今年達到 3640 億美元，高於之前估計的 3250 億美元。這些公司正在大力投資於 AI 數據中心基礎設施，以向客户提供更多以 AI 為中心的雲解決方案。</p>
<p>更新後的資本支出預測顯示，與去年支出相比，預計將增加 63%。預計這筆支出的相當一部分將用於為 AI 基礎設施提供動力的芯片。麥肯錫估計，60% 的 AI 基礎設施支出可能會用於芯片和計算硬件。</p>
<p>因此，英偉達的可尋址市場可能會擴大。重要的是，該公司在 AI 芯片市場中處於領先地位，預計在去年年底的市場份額超過 90%。</p>
<p>另一個將為英偉達股票帶來良好提振的因素是其進入中國市場的機會。今年 4 月，由於對其 AI 芯片銷售到中國的出口限制，該公司被迫退出中國市場。然而，英偉達最近指出，它已獲得保證，可以再次向中國客户銷售其 AI 芯片。</p>
<p>據報道，該公司已向其代工合作伙伴 <strong>台灣半導體制造公司</strong> (TSMC) 下單 30 萬個針對中國市場的 AI 芯片。這是除了英偉達目前持有的 60 萬到 70 萬個現有 H20 AI 處理器之外的訂單。預計英偉達將在下半年從對中國客户的銷售中產生約 150 億美元的收入。</p>
<p>值得注意的是，英偉達在 2026 財年第一季度因對中國客户的發貨限制而遭受了 45 億美元的費用。該公司還強調，由於這些出口限制，其 2026 財年第二季度的收入將受到 80 億美元的影響。同時，各國政府在 AI 基礎設施上的積極支出預計將使英偉達的年收入增加 100 億到 150 億美元。</p>
<p>因此，不要驚訝於看到英偉達在當前財年（將於 2026 年 1 月結束）的收入超過華爾街對 2010 億美元的預期，這將比去年增長 54%。</p>
<h2>但估值如何？</h2>
<p>英偉達股票最近的上漲使其市銷率 (P/S) 達到 29，市盈率 (P/E) 達到 56。為了證明其高估值，該公司需要以比市場預期更快的速度繼續增長。</p>
<p>上述潛在增長表明它確實有能力做到這一點。該公司計劃重新進入中國市場，加上大型科技公司在購買英偉達數據中心處理器方面的 AI 相關支出大幅增加，可能會輕鬆幫助其在未來一年超越市場共識預期。</p>
<p>預計英偉達將實現的令人印象深刻的增長是其前瞻性盈利倍數遠低於歷史倍數的原因。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/810165463169d85682b1b2de2d56fc1d.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="720" height="380" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/810165463169d85682b1b2de2d56fc1d.png"/></p>
<p>NVDA 市盈率（前瞻性）數據來源於 YCharts。市盈率 = 市價與每股收益的比率。</p>
<p>因此，成長型投資者仍應考慮購買這隻 AI 股票，最樂觀的分析師為其設定了未來 12 個月的目標價為 250 美元。這意味着從當前水平潛在收益為 39%，而且由於未來一年在 AI 基礎設施上的健康支出，英偉達很有可能達到這一目標。</p>

英偉達

2 倍做多英偉達 ETF - GraniteShares

南方兩倍做多英偉達

南方兩倍做空英偉達

英偉達期權收益策略 ETF - YieldMax

1 倍做空英偉達 ETF - Direxion

2 倍做多 NVDA ETF - T-Rex

2 倍做空 NVDA ETF - T-Rex

半導體 3 倍做多 - Direxion

<p>英偉達（Nvidia，股票代碼：NVDA）的市值為 4.4 萬億美元，得益於其在人工智能芯片領域的主導地位。過去一年，該股上漲了 68%，表現優於標準普爾 500 指數。隨着科技巨頭增加資本支出以及可能重新進入中國市場，英偉達的收入可能會超過華爾街對 2024 財年的預期，即 2010 億美元。儘管估值較高，但增長前景依然強勁，分析師預測目標價為 250 美元，意味着潛在的 39% 上漲空間</p>

<p><strong>Nvidia</strong>(NVDA 1.05%) is the world's largest company, with a market cap around $4.4 trillion. It has reached this place thanks to its dominant position in the market for artificial intelligence (AI) chips that handle training and inference workloads in data centers.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>英偉達</strong>(NVDA 1.05%) 是全球最大的公司，市值約為 4.4 萬億美元。它之所以能達到這個地位，得益於其在處理數據中心訓練和推理工作負載的人工智能 (AI) 芯片市場中的主導地位。</p>
</div><p>The booming demand for AI chips has helped Nvidia deliver outstanding growth over the past several quarters. Its terrific growth has led to healthy market gains of 68% in the past year as of market close Aug. 4, despite a difficult start to 2025. In fact, Nvidia stock's returns have easily outpaced the 18% gains clocked by the <strong>S&amp;P 500</strong> index during this same period.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>對 AI 芯片的強勁需求幫助英偉達在過去幾個季度實現了卓越的增長。儘管 2025 年開局艱難，但截至 8 月 4 日市場收盤，其出色的增長使其在過去一年中市場收益達到了 68%。事實上，英偉達股票的回報輕鬆超過了同期 <strong>標準普爾 500</strong> 指數的 18% 增長。</p>
</div><p>Investors, however, may be wondering whether Nvidia has the ability to sustain its momentum in the coming year, especially considering its huge market cap and high valuation. In this article, I will take a closer look at Nvidia's catalysts and see where the stock could be after a year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，投資者可能會想知道英偉達是否有能力在未來一年內維持其勢頭，特別是考慮到其巨大的市值和高估值。在本文中，我將更仔細地研究英偉達的催化因素，並看看該股票在一年後可能會處於何種狀態。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MjgwNDQvYWktd3JpdHRlbi1vbi1jaXJjdWl0LWJvYXJkLmpwZyZ3PTcwMA" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F828044%2Fai-written-on-circuit-board.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>圖片來源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><h2>These developments suggest Nvidia has room for more upside</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>這些發展表明英偉達還有更多上漲空間</h2>
</div><p>Massive spending by cloud computing giants and governments around the globe has played a central role in driving Nvidia's outstanding revenue and earnings growth in recent quarters. The good part is that Nvidia can continue counting on these avenues for growth.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>全球雲計算巨頭和各國政府的大規模支出在推動英偉達最近幾個季度的卓越收入和盈利增長中發揮了核心作用。好的一面是，英偉達可以繼續依靠這些增長渠道。</p>
</div><p>For instance, the capital expenses of big tech players <strong>Microsoft</strong>, <strong>Amazon</strong>, <strong>Alphabet</strong>, and <strong>Meta Platforms</strong> are expected to hit $364 billion this year, up from an earlier estimate of $325 billion. All these companies are investing substantially in AI data center infrastructure to bring more AI-focused cloud solutions to customers.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>例如，<strong>微軟</strong>、<strong>亞馬遜</strong>、<strong>谷歌母公司 Alphabet</strong> 和 <strong>Meta Platforms</strong> 等大型科技公司的資本支出預計將在今年達到 3640 億美元，高於之前估計的 3250 億美元。這些公司正在大力投資於 AI 數據中心基礎設施，以向客户提供更多以 AI 為中心的雲解決方案。</p>
</div><p>The updated capital spending forecast points toward a 63% increase from last year's outlay. A nice chunk of this spending can be expected to be directed toward chips that power AI infrastructure. McKinsey estimates that 60% of AI infrastructure spending is likely to be directed toward chips and computing hardware.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>更新後的資本支出預測顯示，與去年支出相比，預計將增加 63%。預計這筆支出的相當一部分將用於為 AI 基礎設施提供動力的芯片。麥肯錫估計，60% 的 AI 基礎設施支出可能會用於芯片和計算硬件。</p>
</div><p>Nvidia's addressable market, therefore, is likely to expand. Importantly, the company is the leading player in the AI chip market, with an estimated share of more than 90% at the end of last year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>因此，英偉達的可尋址市場可能會擴大。重要的是，該公司在 AI 芯片市場中處於領先地位，預計在去年年底的市場份額超過 90%。</p>
</div><p>Another factor that's going to give Nvidia stock a nice boost is its access to the Chinese market. The company was frozen out of China in April of this year following export restrictions on the sales of its AI chips to that country. However, Nvidia recently pointed out that it has received assurances it will be able to sell its AI chips to Chinese customers once again.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>另一個將為英偉達股票帶來良好提振的因素是其進入中國市場的機會。今年 4 月，由於對其 AI 芯片銷售到中國的出口限制，該公司被迫退出中國市場。然而，英偉達最近指出，它已獲得保證，可以再次向中國客户銷售其 AI 芯片。</p>
</div><p>The company has reportedly placed orders for 300,000 China-specific AI chips with its foundry partner <strong>Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company</strong> (TSMC). That's in addition to the stockpile of 600,000 to 700,000 existing H20 AI processors that Nvidia is currently sitting on. Nvidia is expected to generate an estimated $15 billion in revenue from sales to Chinese customers in the second half of the year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>據報道，該公司已向其代工合作伙伴 <strong>台灣半導體制造公司</strong> (TSMC) 下單 30 萬個針對中國市場的 AI 芯片。這是除了英偉達目前持有的 60 萬到 70 萬個現有 H20 AI 處理器之外的訂單。預計英偉達將在下半年從對中國客户的銷售中產生約 150 億美元的收入。</p>
</div><p>It is worth noting that Nvidia incurred a $4.5 billion charge in the first quarter of fiscal 2026 on account of restrictions on shipments to Chinese customers. The company also highlighted that its fiscal Q2 revenue would take an $8 billion hit because of those export restrictions. Meanwhile, the aggressive spending on AI infrastructure by governments across the globe is expected to boost Nvidia's annual revenue by $10 billion to $15 billion.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>值得注意的是，英偉達在 2026 財年第一季度因對中國客户的發貨限制而遭受了 45 億美元的費用。該公司還強調，由於這些出口限制，其 2026 財年第二季度的收入將受到 80 億美元的影響。同時，各國政府在 AI 基礎設施上的積極支出預計將使英偉達的年收入增加 100 億到 150 億美元。</p>
</div><p>As such, don't be surprised to see Nvidia's revenue in the current fiscal year (which will end in January 2026) coast past Wall Street's expectations of $201 billion, which would translate into an increase of 54% from last year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>因此，不要驚訝於看到英偉達在當前財年（將於 2026 年 1 月結束）的收入超過華爾街對 2010 億美元的預期，這將比去年增長 54%。</p>
</div><h2>But what about the valuation?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>但估值如何？</h2>
</div><p>Nvidia stock's recent rally has brought its price-to-sales (P/S) multiple to 29 and the price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio to 56. The company needs to keep growing at a faster pace than the market's expectations to justify its rich valuation.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>英偉達股票最近的上漲使其市銷率 (P/S) 達到 29，市盈率 (P/E) 達到 56。為了證明其高估值，該公司需要以比市場預期更快的速度繼續增長。</p>
</div><p>The potential growth outlined above suggest it is indeed capable of doing so. The company's planned re-entry into the Chinese market, along with the substantial increase in AI-related spending by big tech companies that have been buying Nvidia's data center processors, could easily help it eclipse consensus expectations in the coming year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>上述潛在增長表明它確實有能力做到這一點。該公司計劃重新進入中國市場，加上大型科技公司在購買英偉達數據中心處理器方面的 AI 相關支出大幅增加，可能會輕鬆幫助其在未來一年超越市場共識預期。</p>
</div><p>The impressive growth Nvidia is expected to deliver is the reason its forward earnings multiples are much lower than the trailing ones.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>預計英偉達將實現的令人印象深刻的增長是其前瞻性盈利倍數遠低於歷史倍數的原因。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/810165463169d85682b1b2de2d56fc1d.png" alt="" original-src="https://media.ycharts.com/charts/810165463169d85682b1b2de2d56fc1d.png"/></p>
<p>NVDA PE Ratio (Forward) data by YCharts. PE Ratio = price-to-earnings ratio.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>NVDA 市盈率（前瞻性）數據來源於 YCharts。市盈率 = 市價與每股收益的比率。</p>
</div><p>So, growth investors should still consider buying this AI stock, which the most optimistic analyst gives a price target of $250 for the next 12 months. That points toward potential gains of 39% from current levels, and there is a good chance that Nvidia could end up hitting that mark thanks to the healthy spending on AI infrastructure in the coming year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>因此，成長型投資者仍應考慮購買這隻 AI 股票，最樂觀的分析師為其設定了未來 12 個月的目標價為 250 美元。這意味着從當前水平潛在收益為 39%，而且由於未來一年在 AI 基礎設施上的健康支出，英偉達很有可能達到這一目標。</p>
</div>

Where Will Nvidia Stock Be in 1 Year?

- Nvidia 市值約 4.4 萬億美元，主導 AI 芯片市場，增長強勁。  
- 大型科技公司預計資本支出將達 3640 億美元，推動 Nvidia 收入增長。  
- Nvidia 預計在中國市場銷售將帶來 150 億美元收入，超出華爾街預期。  

一年後英偉達的股票會達到什麼水平？