<p>沃倫·巴菲特正在向投資者傳達某種信息——不是通過他所説的話，而是通過他在其投資集團 <strong>伯克希爾哈撒韋</strong>(BRK.A -0.40%)(BRK.B 0.83%) 的資產負債表上的行動。這些行動應被視為警告信號，因為股市在最近幾個月達到了較高的估值水平。</p>
<p>隨着市場和伯克希爾哈撒韋股票的飆升，巴菲特卻在收縮並建立鉅額現金頭寸。你應該跟隨他的腳步嗎？以下是巴菲特的舉動可能對股市以及伯克希爾哈撒韋本身的意義。</p>
<h2>鉅額現金儲備與暫停股票回購</h2>
<p>伯克希爾哈撒韋的兩個行動表明巴菲特目前的謹慎態度：現金儲備的增加和暫停股票回購。上個季度，伯克希爾哈撒韋的現金及現金等價物達到了 3440 億美元，這一數額超過了全球除 27 家上市公司外的所有公司的市值。</p>
<p>巴菲特持續出售他投資組合中的股票，如 <strong>蘋果</strong>，截至第二季度末，他的累計持倉減少至 2670 億美元。這意味着伯克希爾哈撒韋有更多的資本處於觀望狀態，而不是投資於股市。</p>
<p>近年來，巴菲特利用其多餘現金回購伯克希爾哈撒韋的股票。但現在不再如此。在 2025 年第二季度，巴菲特完全停止了股票回購，這與 2020 年至 2022 年每季度數十億美元的回購速度相比，顯著放緩。伯克希爾利用現金減少流通股，但僅在巴菲特認為自己的股票交易價格低於其內在價值時才會進行。</p>
<p>在第二季度，伯克希爾哈撒韋的市淨率 (P/B) 達到了近 10 年的最高點，接近 1.8。隨着市淨率的上升，回購股票的放緩表明巴菲特認為目前伯克希爾哈撒韋的股票對投資者來説並不便宜。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MjgxNzgvYnVmZmV0dDMtdG1mLmpwZyZ3PTcwMA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="700" height="466" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MjgxNzgvYnVmZmV0dDMtdG1mLmpwZyZ3PTcwMA"/></p>
<p>圖片來源：The Motley Fool。</p>
<h2>估值飆升應讓投資者感到緊張</h2>
<p>儘管巴菲特的現金儲備創下歷史新高，並且在 2025 年前六個月中獲得了 250 億美元的運營收益，但他仍然保持觀望，拒絕購買更多股票——這表明了巴菲特對整體股市的看法。</p>
<p>歷史上，當估值過高時，巴菲特會增加現金頭寸並退出股票市場，例如在 1968 年和 1999 年。短期內這看起來可能愚蠢，但從長遠來看，在高市盈率 (P/E) 下購買股票將導致未來的回報更差，其他條件不變。如今，<strong>標準普爾 500</strong> 指數的市盈率為 30，遠高於其長期平均水平。快速增長的股票 <strong>英偉達</strong> 的市盈率為 59，而即使是增長較慢的 <strong>沃爾瑪</strong> 的市盈率也為 42。</p>
<p>毫不奇怪，巴菲特在這種市場環境中發現很難找到便宜的股票可供購買。相反，他寧願持有現金等價物，賺取保證的利息收入，等待出手的機會。這種耐心是巴菲特在幾十年中成為歷史上最優秀投資者之一的原因。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/e85f4824af5050516e9648ee5a331f68.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="720" height="456" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/e85f4824af5050516e9648ee5a331f68.png"/></p>
<p>NVDA 市盈率數據來源於 YCharts</p>
<h2>你該怎麼做？</h2>
<p>投資者應關注巴菲特的行動。他在股市飆升時對伯克希爾哈撒韋的資產負債表變得越來越謹慎。</p>
<p>然而，你的應對措施完全取決於你的個人財務狀況。如果你是 40 歲以下的年輕人，只要資金是為退休或未來多年儲蓄的，你不必過於擔心投資組合中股票的高市盈率。</p>
<p>另一方面，年長的投資者應更加關注巴菲特的行動。如果你正在提取退休金或計劃用於即將到來的支出，切勿將整個投資組合都投入股票，因為此時的市盈率處於如此高的水平。存在重大回調和迴歸長期均值的風險。</p>
<p>相反，可以將資金投入現金等價物，如國債，或更便宜的分紅股票。巴菲特在蘋果的例子在這方面是一個很好的教訓。他大幅削減了在這家低增長科技巨頭的持倉，其市盈率在 30 到 40 之間，這並未給未來的強勁回報帶來信心。</p>
<p>保持謹慎，不要在股市創下歷史新高時過於樂觀。銘記巴菲特的歷史教訓，並根據你的個人財務狀況保持一個平衡的投資組合。</p>

伯克希爾哈撒韋-A

伯克希爾哈撒韋-B

南方兩倍做多伯克希爾

<p>沃倫·巴菲特通過他在伯克希爾哈撒韋的行動向投資者發出了謹慎的信號，他已建立了 3440 億美元的現金頭寸，並暫停了股票回購。這反映了他對股市估值過高的擔憂，目前標準普爾 500 指數的市盈率為 30。巴菲特的策略表明，他在等待更好的投資機會，建議年長投資者要謹慎，並考慮現金等價物或支付股息的股票，而不是高市盈率的股票。他的歷史方法強調在不確定的市場條件下保持投資組合的平衡</p>

<p>Warren Buffett is telling investors something -- not through what he has said, but through his actions with the balance sheet of his investment conglomerate <strong>Berkshire Hathaway</strong>(BRK.A -0.40%)(BRK.B 0.83%). These actions should be taken as a warning sign with the stock market reaching elevated valuation levels in recent months.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>沃倫·巴菲特正在向投資者傳達某種信息——不是通過他所説的話，而是通過他在其投資集團 <strong>伯克希爾哈撒韋</strong>(BRK.A -0.40%)(BRK.B 0.83%) 的資產負債表上的行動。這些行動應被視為警告信號，因為股市在最近幾個月達到了較高的估值水平。</p>
</div><p>As the market and Berkshire Hathaway stock soar, Buffett is pulling back and building a huge cash position. Should you follow his lead? Here's what Buffett's moves could mean for the stock market as well as Berkshire Hathaway itself.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>隨着市場和伯克希爾哈撒韋股票的飆升，巴菲特卻在收縮並建立鉅額現金頭寸。你應該跟隨他的腳步嗎？以下是巴菲特的舉動可能對股市以及伯克希爾哈撒韋本身的意義。</p>
</div><h2>Huge cash pile and halted share buybacks</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>鉅額現金儲備與暫停股票回購</h2>
</div><p>Two actions from Berkshire Hathaway indicate a level of caution for Buffett at the moment: a rising cash pile and the halting of share buybacks. Last quarter, Berkshire Hathaway's level of cash and equivalents reached $344 billion, which is larger than the market capitalizations of all but 27 publicly traded companies in the world.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>伯克希爾哈撒韋的兩個行動表明巴菲特目前的謹慎態度：現金儲備的增加和暫停股票回購。上個季度，伯克希爾哈撒韋的現金及現金等價物達到了 3440 億美元，這一數額超過了全球除 27 家上市公司外的所有公司的市值。</p>
</div><p>Buffett keeps selling stocks in his portfolio such as <strong>Apple</strong>, reducing his cumulative position to $267 billion as of the end of the second quarter. This means Berkshire Hathaway has more of its capital sitting on the sidelines than invested in the stock market.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>巴菲特持續出售他投資組合中的股票，如 <strong>蘋果</strong>，截至第二季度末，他的累計持倉減少至 2670 億美元。這意味着伯克希爾哈撒韋有更多的資本處於觀望狀態，而不是投資於股市。</p>
</div><p>In recent years, Buffett has used his excess cash to repurchase shares of Berkshire Hathaway stock. No longer. In the second quarter of 2025, Buffett completely halted share repurchases, which is a huge slowdown compared to a quarterly rate in the billions of dollars back in 2020 to 2022. Berkshire uses the cash to reduce its shares outstanding, but only when Buffett believes his own stock is trading at a discount.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>近年來，巴菲特利用其多餘現金回購伯克希爾哈撒韋的股票。但現在不再如此。在 2025 年第二季度，巴菲特完全停止了股票回購，這與 2020 年至 2022 年每季度數十億美元的回購速度相比，顯著放緩。伯克希爾利用現金減少流通股，但僅在巴菲特認為自己的股票交易價格低於其內在價值時才會進行。</p>
</div><p>In the second quarter, Berkshire Hathaway's price-to-book value (P/B), a good metric for evaluating an insurance and investment company, grew to a 10-year high of close to 1.8. Slowing share buybacks with the P/B rising like this indicates that Buffett does not believe Berkshire Hathaway stock is a bargain for investors at the moment.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在第二季度，伯克希爾哈撒韋的市淨率 (P/B) 達到了近 10 年的最高點，接近 1.8。隨着市淨率的上升，回購股票的放緩表明巴菲特認為目前伯克希爾哈撒韋的股票對投資者來説並不便宜。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MjgxNzgvYnVmZmV0dDMtdG1mLmpwZyZ3PTcwMA" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F828178%2Fbuffett3-tmf.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: The Motley Fool.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>圖片來源：The Motley Fool。</p>
</div><h2>Soaring valuations should make investors nervous</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>估值飆升應讓投資者感到緊張</h2>
</div><p>Even though Buffett has a record high cash pile and brought in $25 billion in operating earnings through the first six months of 2025, he has still sat on the sideline and declined to purchase more stocks -- an indicator of what Buffett thinks of the stock market in general.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>儘管巴菲特的現金儲備創下歷史新高，並且在 2025 年前六個月中獲得了 250 億美元的運營收益，但他仍然保持觀望，拒絕購買更多股票——這表明了巴菲特對整體股市的看法。</p>
</div><p>Historically, Buffett has increased his cash position and exited stocks when valuations got overheated, such as 1968 and 1999. In the near term this can look foolish, but over the long run buying stocks at an elevated price-to-earnings ratio (P/E) will lead to worse forward results, all else equal. Today, the <strong>S&amp;P 500</strong> index trades at a P/E ratio of 30, which is well above its long-term average. Fast-growing stock <strong>Nvidia</strong> trades at a P/E of 59, while even slower-growing <strong>Walmart</strong> trades at a P/E of 42.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>歷史上，當估值過高時，巴菲特會增加現金頭寸並退出股票市場，例如在 1968 年和 1999 年。短期內這看起來可能愚蠢，但從長遠來看，在高市盈率 (P/E) 下購買股票將導致未來的回報更差，其他條件不變。如今，<strong>標準普爾 500</strong> 指數的市盈率為 30，遠高於其長期平均水平。快速增長的股票 <strong>英偉達</strong> 的市盈率為 59，而即使是增長較慢的 <strong>沃爾瑪</strong> 的市盈率也為 42。</p>
</div><p>Unsurprisingly, Buffett is finding it tough to identify bargain stocks to buy in this market environment. Instead, he would rather sit on a cash equivalent and earn guaranteed interest income, waiting for his opportunity to strike. This patience is why Buffett has crushed the market over the decades as one of the best investors of all time.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>毫不奇怪，巴菲特在這種市場環境中發現很難找到便宜的股票可供購買。相反，他寧願持有現金等價物，賺取保證的利息收入，等待出手的機會。這種耐心是巴菲特在幾十年中成為歷史上最優秀投資者之一的原因。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/e85f4824af5050516e9648ee5a331f68.png" alt="" original-src="https://media.ycharts.com/charts/e85f4824af5050516e9648ee5a331f68.png"/></p>
<p>NVDA PE Ratio data by YCharts</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>NVDA 市盈率數據來源於 YCharts</p>
</div><h2>What should you do?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>你該怎麼做？</h2>
</div><p>Investors should heed Buffett's actions. He is getting increasingly cautious with Berkshire Hathaway's balance sheet as the market soars.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>投資者應關注巴菲特的行動。他在股市飆升時對伯克希爾哈撒韋的資產負債表變得越來越謹慎。</p>
</div><p>What you do about it entirely depends on your personal financial situation, however. If you are a younger person under the age of 40, you do not necessarily need to worry about high P/E ratios from stocks in your investing portfolio, as long as the money is being saved for retirement or many years into the future.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，你的應對措施完全取決於你的個人財務狀況。如果你是 40 歲以下的年輕人，只要資金是為退休或未來多年儲蓄的，你不必過於擔心投資組合中股票的高市盈率。</p>
</div><p>On the other hand, older investors should pay much closer attention to Buffett's actions. You do not want your entire portfolio in stocks if you are drawing down money for retirement or plan to use it for any upcoming expenses with P/E ratios at such elevated levels. There is a major risk of a correction and regression to the long-term mean.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>另一方面，年長的投資者應更加關注巴菲特的行動。如果你正在提取退休金或計劃用於即將到來的支出，切勿將整個投資組合都投入股票，因為此時的市盈率處於如此高的水平。存在重大回調和迴歸長期均值的風險。</p>
</div><p>Instead, put money into cash equivalents like Treasury bonds, or cheaper dividend-paying stocks. Buffett's example with Apple is a good lesson in this regard. He greatly trimmed his position with the low-growth technology giant's P/E ratio between 30 and 40, which does not inspire confidence for strong forward returns.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>相反，可以將資金投入現金等價物，如國債，或更便宜的分紅股票。巴菲特在蘋果的例子在這方面是一個很好的教訓。他大幅削減了在這家低增長科技巨頭的持倉，其市盈率在 30 到 40 之間，這並未給未來的強勁回報帶來信心。</p>
</div><p>Stay cautious, and do not get over your skis with the stock market chugging to all-time highs. Take Buffett's historical lessons to heart and keep a balanced investment portfolio for your personal financial situation.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>保持謹慎，不要在股市創下歷史新高時過於樂觀。銘記巴菲特的歷史教訓，並根據你的個人財務狀況保持一個平衡的投資組合。</p>
</div>

Warren Buffett's Bright Warning to Wall Street: Here's What It Means for Berkshire Hathaway and the Stock Market

- 巴菲特通過增加現金儲備和停止股票回購顯示出謹慎態度。  
- 伯克希爾哈撒韋的現金達到 3440 億美元，表明市場估值過高。  
- 投資者應關注巴菲特的行動，保持投資組合的平衡。  

沃倫·巴菲特對華爾街的明確警告：這對伯克希爾哈撒韋和股市意味着什麼