<p>沃倫·巴菲特最近對股市並沒有看到太多令人滿意的地方。事實上，他和他的投資經理團隊在 <strong>伯克希爾哈撒韋</strong>(BRK.A -0.40%)(BRK.B 0.83%) 已經連續 11 個季度淨賣出股票。</p>
<p>巴菲特的股票銷售在過去五個季度加速。這包括伯克希爾在 <strong>蘋果</strong> 和 <strong>美國銀行</strong> 的鉅額股份出售。同時，他停止了購買一隻自 2018 年中以來每個季度都在買入的股票。因此，伯克希爾的現金儲備已攀升至驚人的 3440 億美元。</p>
<p>但市場可能正在給巴菲特提供一個機會，讓他再次開始購買他最喜歡的股票，投資者也應該考慮這樣做。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84Mjg0OTAvYnVmZmV0dDgtdG1mLmpwZyZ3PTcwMA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84Mjg0OTAvYnVmZmV0dDgtdG1mLmpwZyZ3PTcwMA"/></p>
<p>圖片來源：The Motley Fool。</p>
<h2>巴菲特並沒有試圖把握市場時機</h2>
<p>巴菲特在過去幾年的大規模股票銷售以及缺乏購買，可能被一些人視為這位奧馬哈的先知試圖預測未來和把握市場時機。雖然這看起來像是市場時機把握，但巴菲特只是堅持了他作為投資者在過去 60 年左右所採用的有效策略。</p>
<p>“我們試圖_定價_，而不是_時機_，” 巴菲特在 1994 年致股東的信中寫道。伯克希爾的股票銷售也可以這樣理解。如果市場對伯克希爾的某項持股提供了鉅額溢價，巴菲特就應該出售它，口袋裏裝上現金，然後尋找那些交易價格遠低於其內在價值的股票機會。這甚至可能包括購買伯克希爾哈撒韋的股票。</p>
<p>事實上，董事會在 2018 年更新了其股票回購政策，允許巴菲特在公司股票交易低於其內在價值時回購股票，內在價值是保守估算的。巴菲特在這一變化後迅速開始回購股票，表明該股票看起來像是個便宜貨。在 2018 年至 2024 年 5 月之間，巴菲特花費了 780 億美元回購伯克希爾哈撒韋的股票。</p>
<p>然而，在過去 14 個月中，巴菲特並沒有根據伯克希爾的季度財報花費一美元回購股票。他對自己設定的標準與他對所有伯克希爾投資公司的首席執行官所期望的標準一樣高。“所有股票回購都應該依賴於價格。以商業價值的折扣進行的回購是合理的，但如果以溢價進行則變得愚蠢，” 他在 2023 年致股東的信中寫道。</p>
<p>但自從巴菲特在 5 月的年度會議上宣佈他將在年底辭去首席執行官職務以來，伯克希爾的股票價格大幅下跌。在第二季度財報引發的進一步拋售後，股票開始顯得更加吸引人。這可能為巴菲特開始回購伯克希爾的股票打開了大門。</p>
<h2>巴菲特會再次開始購買嗎？</h2>
<p>伯克希爾哈撒韋的收益讓許多投資者失望，導致市場拋售該股票。</p>
<p>在 2024 年表現出色後，保險業務恢復到更正常的運營狀態，包括由於加州野火而在今年早些時候的大額賠付。這導致承保利潤下降，推動該綜合企業的總運營收益在上個季度下降近 4%。然而，值得注意的是，伯克希爾在上個季度面臨了顯著的外匯逆風，這對運營收益產生了負面影響。</p>
<p>伯克希爾還將其 <strong>卡夫亨氏</strong> 投資減記了 50 億美元。這是在 2019 年進行的 30 億美元減值後的進一步負面影響。</p>
<p>儘管如此，巴菲特看到伯克希爾哈撒韋的每股賬面價值上升，包括第一季度的 2.1% 增長，以及與一年前相比的 10.9% 增長。結合過去三個月股票價格的下跌，伯克希爾哈撒韋的股票現在的市淨率約為 1.5。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/7468312d003d3ce3ab30b9edd8a84b85.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/7468312d003d3ce3ab30b9edd8a84b85.png"/></p>
<p>BRK.A 每股賬面價值數據來自 YCharts</p>
<p>這是一個重要的估值，因為當巴菲特最後一次回購伯克希爾的股票時，該股票的交易價格低於該估值。自去年 5 月以來，該股票很少跌破該價格。但在拋售後，股票顯然更具吸引力。</p>
<p>有幾個因素可能會阻止巴菲特在當前價格下購買。首先，伯克希爾的可交易股權投資組合是其賬面價值的重要因素。巴菲特可能仍然認為投資組合中的大多數股票被高估，尤其是在過去一年股票持續上漲的情況下。這將促使他對伯克希爾股票要求更低的倍數，因為回購伯克希爾股票也意味着購買其股權投資組合的一小部分。</p>
<p>另一個因素是，他可能希望在不久的將來用一大筆現金來增強鐵路業務。<strong>聯合太平洋</strong> 和 <strong>諾福克南方</strong> 已同意合併，這威脅到伯克希爾的伯靈頓北方聖菲的競爭力。</p>
<p>考慮到伯克希爾的資產負債表的強勁，以及目前不依賴保險浮存金進行任何資本運作，它的市淨率應該高於歷史水平。隨着股票交易在賬面價值的 1.5 倍左右，該股票終於看起來再次接近其內在價值，值得購買。</p>

伯克希爾哈撒韋-B

伯克希爾哈撒韋-A

<p>沃倫·巴菲特在過去 11 個季度中一直是股票的淨賣家，這使得伯克希爾哈撒韋的現金儲備達到了 3440 億美元。儘管最近進行了股票銷售，但市場可能為巴菲特提供了回購伯克希爾股票的機會，因為其價格已經下跌。然而，他依然保持謹慎，遵循基於價值而非時機的購買原則。伯克希爾的股權投資組合估值以及對鐵路業務的潛在投資等因素可能會影響他回購股票的決定</p>

<p>Warren Buffett hasn't seen a lot to like in the stock market recently. In fact, he and his team of investment managers at <strong>Berkshire Hathaway</strong>(BRK.A -0.40%)(BRK.B 0.83%) have been net sellers of stocks for 11 straight quarters.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>沃倫·巴菲特最近對股市並沒有看到太多令人滿意的地方。事實上，他和他的投資經理團隊在 <strong>伯克希爾哈撒韋</strong>(BRK.A -0.40%)(BRK.B 0.83%) 已經連續 11 個季度淨賣出股票。</p>
</div><p>Buffett's stock sales have accelerated over the past five quarters. That includes monster sales of Berkshire's stakes in <strong>Apple</strong> and <strong>Bank of America</strong>. In the meantime, he's stopped buying one stock investors had seen him buy consistently each quarter since mid-2018. As a result, Berkshire's cash pile has climbed to a whopping $344 billion.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>巴菲特的股票銷售在過去五個季度加速。這包括伯克希爾在 <strong>蘋果</strong> 和 <strong>美國銀行</strong> 的鉅額股份出售。同時，他停止了購買一隻自 2018 年中以來每個季度都在買入的股票。因此，伯克希爾的現金儲備已攀升至驚人的 3440 億美元。</p>
</div><p>But the market may be offering Buffett an opportunity to start buying his favorite stock again, and investors should consider doing the same.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但市場可能正在給巴菲特提供一個機會，讓他再次開始購買他最喜歡的股票，投資者也應該考慮這樣做。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84Mjg0OTAvYnVmZmV0dDgtdG1mLmpwZyZ3PTcwMA" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F828490%2Fbuffett8-tmf.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: The Motley Fool.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>圖片來源：The Motley Fool。</p>
</div><h2>Buffett isn't timing the market</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>巴菲特並沒有試圖把握市場時機</h2>
</div><p>Buffett's big stock sales over the last few years and his lack of purchases may be seen by some as the Oracle of Omaha trying to predict the future and time the market. While it might look like market timing, Buffett is merely sticking to what's worked for him as an investor for the last 60 years or so.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>巴菲特在過去幾年的大規模股票銷售以及缺乏購買，可能被一些人視為這位奧馬哈的先知試圖預測未來和把握市場時機。雖然這看起來像是市場時機把握，但巴菲特只是堅持了他作為投資者在過去 60 年左右所採用的有效策略。</p>
</div><p>&#34;We try to <em>price,</em> rather than <em>time,</em> purchases,&#34; Buffett wrote in his 1994 letter to shareholders. The same could be said of Berkshire's stock sales. If the market is offering a massive premium on one of Berkshire's holdings, Buffett ought to sell it, pocket the cash, and look for opportunities in stocks trading well below their intrinsic value. That could even include buying Berkshire Hathaway shares themselves.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“我們試圖_定價_，而不是_時機_，” 巴菲特在 1994 年致股東的信中寫道。伯克希爾的股票銷售也可以這樣理解。如果市場對伯克希爾的某項持股提供了鉅額溢價，巴菲特就應該出售它，口袋裏裝上現金，然後尋找那些交易價格遠低於其內在價值的股票機會。這甚至可能包括購買伯克希爾哈撒韋的股票。</p>
</div><p>In fact, the board of directors updated its share repurchase policy in 2018, allowing Buffett to buy back shares of the company as long as it traded below its intrinsic value, conservatively determined. Buffett quickly went to work buying back shares following that change, indicating that the stock looked like a bargain. Between 2018 and May 2024, Buffett spent $78 billion buying back shares of Berkshire Hathaway.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>事實上，董事會在 2018 年更新了其股票回購政策，允許巴菲特在公司股票交易低於其內在價值時回購股票，內在價值是保守估算的。巴菲特在這一變化後迅速開始回購股票，表明該股票看起來像是個便宜貨。在 2018 年至 2024 年 5 月之間，巴菲特花費了 780 億美元回購伯克希爾哈撒韋的股票。</p>
</div><p>Over the last 14 months, however, Buffett hasn't spent a single dollar buying back the stock based on Berkshire's quarterly earnings reports. He holds himself to the same high standards he expects of the CEOs of all the companies Berkshire invests in. &#34;All stock repurchases should be price-dependent. What is sensible at a discount to business-value becomes stupid if done at a premium,&#34; he wrote in his 2023 letter to shareholders.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，在過去 14 個月中，巴菲特並沒有根據伯克希爾的季度財報花費一美元回購股票。他對自己設定的標準與他對所有伯克希爾投資公司的首席執行官所期望的標準一樣高。“所有股票回購都應該依賴於價格。以商業價值的折扣進行的回購是合理的，但如果以溢價進行則變得愚蠢，” 他在 2023 年致股東的信中寫道。</p>
</div><p>But Berkshire shares have fallen considerably since Buffett announced he would step down as CEO at the end of the year during the company's annual meeting in May. And after a further sell-off sparked by its second-quarter earnings report, shares are starting to look a lot more appealing. That could open the door for Buffett to start buying back Berkshire's stock.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但自從巴菲特在 5 月的年度會議上宣佈他將在年底辭去首席執行官職務以來，伯克希爾的股票價格大幅下跌。在第二季度財報引發的進一步拋售後，股票開始顯得更加吸引人。這可能為巴菲特開始回購伯克希爾的股票打開了大門。</p>
</div><h2>Will Buffett start buying again?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>巴菲特會再次開始購買嗎？</h2>
</div><p>Berkshire Hathaway's earnings disappointed many investors, leading the market to sell off the stock.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>伯克希爾哈撒韋的收益讓許多投資者失望，導致市場拋售該股票。</p>
</div><p>After a stellar 2024, the insurance business is back to more normalized operations, including big payouts earlier this year due to the California wildfires. That's led to a drop in underwriting profits, which pushed the conglomerate's total operating earnings down nearly 4% last quarter. It's worth noting, however, that Berkshire faced significant foreign exchange headwinds last quarter, which negatively affected operating earnings.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在 2024 年表現出色後，保險業務恢復到更正常的運營狀態，包括由於加州野火而在今年早些時候的大額賠付。這導致承保利潤下降，推動該綜合企業的總運營收益在上個季度下降近 4%。然而，值得注意的是，伯克希爾在上個季度面臨了顯著的外匯逆風，這對運營收益產生了負面影響。</p>
</div><p>Berkshire also wrote down its <strong>Kraft Heinz</strong> investment by $5 billion. That follows a $3 billion impairment charge it took in 2019. That further negatively affected reported earnings.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>伯克希爾還將其 <strong>卡夫亨氏</strong> 投資減記了 50 億美元。這是在 2019 年進行的 30 億美元減值後的進一步負面影響。</p>
</div><p>Nonetheless, Buffett has seen the book value per share of Berkshire Hathaway climb, including a 2.1% gain from the first quarter, and a 10.9% increase from a year ago. Combined with the declining stock price over the last three months, Berkshire Hathaway shares now trade for a price-to-book ratio of about 1.5.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>儘管如此，巴菲特看到伯克希爾哈撒韋的每股賬面價值上升，包括第一季度的 2.1% 增長，以及與一年前相比的 10.9% 增長。結合過去三個月股票價格的下跌，伯克希爾哈撒韋的股票現在的市淨率約為 1.5。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/7468312d003d3ce3ab30b9edd8a84b85.png" alt="" original-src="https://media.ycharts.com/charts/7468312d003d3ce3ab30b9edd8a84b85.png"/></p>
<p>BRK.A Book Value (Per Share) data by YCharts</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>BRK.A 每股賬面價值數據來自 YCharts</p>
</div><p>That's an important valuation, because when Buffett last repurchased shares of Berkshire, the stock traded below that valuation. The stock has rarely dipped below that price since last May. But shares are certainly more attractive after the sell-off.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這是一個重要的估值，因為當巴菲特最後一次回購伯克希爾的股票時，該股票的交易價格低於該估值。自去年 5 月以來，該股票很少跌破該價格。但在拋售後，股票顯然更具吸引力。</p>
</div><p>A couple of factors could keep Buffett from buying at the current price. First, Berkshire's marketable equity portfolio is a significant factor in its book value. Buffett may still see most of the stocks in the portfolio as overpriced, especially as stocks continued to climb over the past year. That would push him to require a lower multiple for Berkshire stock, since repurchasing Berkshire shares would also mean purchasing a small piece of its equity portfolio.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>有幾個因素可能會阻止巴菲特在當前價格下購買。首先，伯克希爾的可交易股權投資組合是其賬面價值的重要因素。巴菲特可能仍然認為投資組合中的大多數股票被高估，尤其是在過去一年股票持續上漲的情況下。這將促使他對伯克希爾股票要求更低的倍數，因為回購伯克希爾股票也意味着購買其股權投資組合的一小部分。</p>
</div><p>The other factor is that he may want to use a significant chunk of cash to bolster the railroad business in the near future. <strong>Union Pacific</strong> and <strong>Norfolk Southern</strong> have agreed to a merger, threatening the competitiveness of Berkshire's Burlington Northern Santa Fe.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>另一個因素是，他可能希望在不久的將來用一大筆現金來增強鐵路業務。<strong>聯合太平洋</strong> 和 <strong>諾福克南方</strong> 已同意合併，這威脅到伯克希爾的伯靈頓北方聖菲的競爭力。</p>
</div><p>When you consider the strength of Berkshire's balance sheet and that it's not relying on insurance float for any capital at this point, it should trade for a higher price-to-book value ratio than it has historically. With shares trading around 1.5 times book value, the stock finally looks to be trading near its intrinsic value again, making it worth buying.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>考慮到伯克希爾的資產負債表的強勁，以及目前不依賴保險浮存金進行任何資本運作，它的市淨率應該高於歷史水平。隨着股票交易在賬面價值的 1.5 倍左右，該股票終於看起來再次接近其內在價值，值得購買。</p>
</div>

After Sitting on the Sidelines For 14 Months, Warren Buffett Could Be Buying One of His Favorite Stocks Again

- 巴菲特及其團隊在過去 11 個季度持續淨賣出股票，現金儲備達 3440 億美元。  
- 由於市場下跌，伯克希爾的股票價格接近內在價值，可能吸引巴菲特回購。  
- 伯克希爾的運營收益因外匯和投資減值下滑，但每股賬面價值仍在上升。  

在旁觀了 14 個月後，沃倫·巴菲特可能會再次購買他鐘愛的股票之一