<p>不可避免的事情似乎正在發生。霍華德·斯特恩——這位有爭議且標誌性的早間節目主持人，二十年前讓 <strong>Sirius XM Holdings</strong>(SIRI 0.17%) 聲名鵲起——可能將告別衞星廣播。消息人士上週告訴《太陽報》，Sirius XM 將在其第四個五年合同結束後取消該節目。</p>
<p>自上週的消息披露以來，很多報道將其渲染為這位廣播傳奇的 “解僱”，你要麼愛他要麼恨他。但這並不完全正確。《太陽報》的消息來源表示，Sirius XM 將提出一個報價，但遠低於斯特恩團隊過去所獲得的年收入九位數。</p>
<p>“Sirius 和斯特恩在他想要的金額上永遠不會達成一致，” 這位匿名消息人士表示。“這筆投資不再值得。”</p>
<p>這也是市場面臨的重大問題：Sirius XM 本身是否不再值得投資？該公司的股票價格和受歡迎程度都在下降。讓我們仔細看看這個遊走的媒體壟斷接下來會走向何方。</p>
<h2>二十年的奢華衰退</h2>
<p>顛覆者終將被顛覆。十多年前，Sirius XM 是成長型投資者心目中的媒體股票寵兒，但如今它吸引的是因其低估值和豐厚分紅而來的價值投資者。自 2014 年以來，公司的有機收入增長一直停留在個位數，這將是連續第三年出現負增長。</p>
<p>斯特恩在 2006 年從地面廣播轉向 Sirius，對這個新興平台來説是個巨大的轉折。Sirius 當時只有 330 萬訂閲用户，而更大的競爭對手 XM 則向其 600 萬賬户傳輸音頻內容。斯特恩的到來使兩者之間的競爭格局發生了變化，幾年後，Sirius 在合併中佔據了主導地位。</p>
<p>這發生在智能手機和聯網汽車尚未普及之前，那時幾乎每個駕駛者都能通過汽車音響無縫訪問各種應用。然而，即使在觀眾數量收縮的情況下，Sirius XM 的聽眾人數仍是斯特恩轉型前兩家公司的總和的三倍多。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84Mjg5NDEvZ2V0dHlpbWFnZXMtMTE1Njg1NjY3MS5qcGcmdz03MDA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84Mjg5NDEvZ2V0dHlpbWFnZXMtMTE1Njg1NjY3MS5qcGcmdz03MDA"/></p>
<p>圖片來源：Getty Images。</p>
<h2>打斷漸隱的聲音</h2>
<p>Sirius XM 仍然盈利。它每年仍在產生十位數的自由現金流。如果這真的是斯特恩在該平台的終結——即使 Sirius XM 願意為節目支付費用，這種可能性也一直存在——這並不意味着衞星廣播的終結。如今，Sirius XM 面臨的最大問題並不是留住聽眾。每月 1.5% 的流失率仍然徘徊在公司的歷史平均水平附近。真正的挑戰是尋找新聽眾。</p>
<p>年輕駕駛者體驗免費試用服務的渠道已經乾涸多年。聯網汽車是一個因素，但工作場所的變化也很重要，長時間通勤的情況在居家辦公的世界中不再普遍。而斯特恩對新聽眾的吸引力與 20 年前相比也有所不同。這並不是斯特恩的錯。Sirius XM 是一個封閉的花園：如果你不是訂閲者，就無法訪問。斯特恩試圖讓自己在衞星廣播粉絲羣體之外變得相關。他曾在《美國達人秀》中擔任主持人幾年。然而，這並不是能激勵人們註冊高端車載和流媒體服務的工作。</p>
<p>過去 20 年，播客的興起吸引了聽眾的耳朵。即使你在車裏，你也會花更少的時間聽廣播，因為如果你不想聽音樂流媒體應用，你現在可以流式播放你最喜歡的播客。Sirius XM 在這方面也在積極佈局，簽約了包括亞歷克斯·庫珀、Rotten 和 Smartless 等受歡迎的播客。這在斯特恩上次與 Sirius XM 續約時並不是一個重要的舉措，但現在卻成為了優先事項——尤其是如果該平台想要重返增長，就需要吸引年輕用户。</p>
<p>斯特恩會沒事的。Sirius XM 也會沒事的。投資者——在等待過程中——也會沒事的。該股票目前的交易價格不到明年預期收益的 7 倍，且有 5.1% 的股息收益率。斯特恩不太可能以低價迴歸 Sirius XM，但投資者現在可以這樣做。</p>

天狼星XM廣播

<p>Sirius XM Holdings 可能會與霍華德·斯特恩分道揚鑣，因為他的合同即將到期，有報道稱公司將提供的薪酬遠低於他之前的收入。儘管股價和訂閲用户增長有所下降，Sirius XM 仍然保持盈利，並擁有可觀的自由現金流。挑戰在於在媒體消費習慣變化的背景下吸引新聽眾，包括播客的興起。雖然斯特恩的離開可能會影響平台，但 Sirius XM 正在探索新的內容策略，以吸引年輕觀眾。投資者可能會發現該股票具有價值，目前的估值較低，且股息收益率不錯</p>

<p>The inevitable appears to be happening. Howard Stern -- the controversial and iconic morning show host that put <strong>Sirius XM Holdings</strong>(SIRI 0.17%) on the map two decades ago -- could be moving on from satellite radio. Sources told <em>The Sun</em> last week that Sirius XM would be canceling the show after its fourth five-year contract concludes at the end of this year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>不可避免的事情似乎正在發生。霍華德·斯特恩——這位有爭議且標誌性的早間節目主持人，二十年前讓 <strong>Sirius XM Holdings</strong>(SIRI 0.17%) 聲名鵲起——可能將告別衞星廣播。消息人士上週告訴《太陽報》，Sirius XM 將在其第四個五年合同結束後取消該節目。</p>
</div><p>A lot of stories since last week's revelation have been playing this up as the &#34;firing&#34; of the radio legend that you either love or hate. It's not technically true. <em>The Sun</em>'s source is saying that Sirius XM will make an offer, but that it will be well below the annual nine figures that Stern's camp has received in the past.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>自上週的消息披露以來，很多報道將其渲染為這位廣播傳奇的 “解僱”，你要麼愛他要麼恨他。但這並不完全正確。《太陽報》的消息來源表示，Sirius XM 將提出一個報價，但遠低於斯特恩團隊過去所獲得的年收入九位數。</p>
</div><p>&#34;Sirius and Stern are never going to meet on the money he is going to want,&#34; the unnamed source says. &#34;It's no longer worth the investment.&#34;</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“Sirius 和斯特恩在他想要的金額上永遠不會達成一致，” 這位匿名消息人士表示。“這筆投資不再值得。”</p>
</div><p>This is also the big question for the market: Is Sirius XM itself no longer worth the investment? The stock has fallen both in price and in favor. Let's take a closer look at where the meandering media monopoly goes from here.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這也是市場面臨的重大問題：Sirius XM 本身是否不再值得投資？該公司的股票價格和受歡迎程度都在下降。讓我們仔細看看這個遊走的媒體壟斷接下來會走向何方。</p>
</div><h2>Two decades of decadence</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>二十年的奢華衰退</h2>
</div><p>Disruptors get disrupted. Sirius XM was a media stock darling for growth investors more than a decade ago, but these days it's attracting value investors with its low valuation and chunky payouts. Organic revenue growth hasn't shifted out of a single-digit gear since 2014, and this will be the third consecutive year of negative top-line growth.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>顛覆者終將被顛覆。十多年前，Sirius XM 是成長型投資者心目中的媒體股票寵兒，但如今它吸引的是因其低估值和豐厚分紅而來的價值投資者。自 2014 年以來，公司的有機收入增長一直停留在個位數，這將是連續第三年出現負增長。</p>
</div><p>Stern's migration from terrestrial radio to Sirius in 2006 was huge for the nascent platform. Sirius had just 3.3 million subscribers. Larger rival XM was beaming audio content to its 6 million accounts. Stern's arrival leveled the playing field between the two players, and a couple of years later it was Sirius in the driver's seat, executing a merger of equals.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>斯特恩在 2006 年從地面廣播轉向 Sirius，對這個新興平台來説是個巨大的轉折。Sirius 當時只有 330 萬訂閲用户，而更大的競爭對手 XM 則向其 600 萬賬户傳輸音頻內容。斯特恩的到來使兩者之間的競爭格局發生了變化，幾年後，Sirius 在合併中佔據了主導地位。</p>
</div><p>This was before the smartphone and connected car gave nearly everyone behind the wheel access to a world of apps that could play seamlessly through their car stereos. However, even with its audience contracting, Sirius XM entertains more than triple the listeners that the two players combined were reaching before Stern made his move.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這發生在智能手機和聯網汽車尚未普及之前，那時幾乎每個駕駛者都能通過汽車音響無縫訪問各種應用。然而，即使在觀眾數量收縮的情況下，Sirius XM 的聽眾人數仍是斯特恩轉型前兩家公司的總和的三倍多。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84Mjg5NDEvZ2V0dHlpbWFnZXMtMTE1Njg1NjY3MS5qcGcmdz03MDA" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F828941%2Fgettyimages-1156856671.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>圖片來源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><h2>Interrupting the fadeout</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>打斷漸隱的聲音</h2>
</div><p>Sirius XM remains profitable. It's still cranking out 10-figure annual free cash flow. If this is the end of Stern on the platform -- and that was always a possibility, even if Sirius XM were willing to pay up for show -- it doesn't mean the end for satellite radio. The biggest problem at Sirius XM these days isn't keeping listeners around. The monthly churn rate of 1.5% continues to hover around the company's historical average. The real trick is finding new listeners.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Sirius XM 仍然盈利。它每年仍在產生十位數的自由現金流。如果這真的是斯特恩在該平台的終結——即使 Sirius XM 願意為節目支付費用，這種可能性也一直存在——這並不意味着衞星廣播的終結。如今，Sirius XM 面臨的最大問題並不是留住聽眾。每月 1.5% 的流失率仍然徘徊在公司的歷史平均水平附近。真正的挑戰是尋找新聽眾。</p>
</div><p>The funnel of young drivers hopping on free trials of the service has been dry for years. The connected car is a factor, but so is a changing workplace that no longer revolves around long commutes in a world of working from home. And the current appeal of Stern to new listeners is different from 20 years ago. It's not Stern's fault. Sirius XM is a walled garden: If you're not a subscriber, you don't have access. Stern has tried to make himself relevant outside his satellite radio fan base. He was a host on <em>America's Got Talent</em> for a couple of years. However, that's not the kind of gig that will motivate someone to sign up for a premium in-car and streaming service.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>年輕駕駛者體驗免費試用服務的渠道已經乾涸多年。聯網汽車是一個因素，但工作場所的變化也很重要，長時間通勤的情況在居家辦公的世界中不再普遍。而斯特恩對新聽眾的吸引力與 20 年前相比也有所不同。這並不是斯特恩的錯。Sirius XM 是一個封閉的花園：如果你不是訂閲者，就無法訪問。斯特恩試圖讓自己在衞星廣播粉絲羣體之外變得相關。他曾在《美國達人秀》中擔任主持人幾年。然而，這並不是能激勵人們註冊高端車載和流媒體服務的工作。</p>
</div><p>Another revolution that has grabbed the ears of listeners over the past 20 years is podcasting. Even if you're in your car, you're going to spend less time listening to radio because now you can stream your favorite podcast if you're not in the mood for a music streaming app. Sirius XM has been making moves on that front, lining up popular podcasters including Alex Cooper, Rotten, and Smartless. This wasn't much of an initiative the last time Stern renewed with Sirius XM, but it is a priority now -- especially with the need for the platform to skew younger if it wants a shot at returning to growth.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>過去 20 年，播客的興起吸引了聽眾的耳朵。即使你在車裏，你也會花更少的時間聽廣播，因為如果你不想聽音樂流媒體應用，你現在可以流式播放你最喜歡的播客。Sirius XM 在這方面也在積極佈局，簽約了包括亞歷克斯·庫珀、Rotten 和 Smartless 等受歡迎的播客。這在斯特恩上次與 Sirius XM 續約時並不是一個重要的舉措，但現在卻成為了優先事項——尤其是如果該平台想要重返增長，就需要吸引年輕用户。</p>
</div><p>Stern will be fine. Sirius XM will be fine. Investors -- while they wait out the process -- will be fine. The stock is now trading for less than 7 times next year's projected earnings with a 5.1% dividend yield. Stern isn't likely to come back to Sirius XM on the cheap, but investors can do so right now.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>斯特恩會沒事的。Sirius XM 也會沒事的。投資者——在等待過程中——也會沒事的。該股票目前的交易價格不到明年預期收益的 7 倍，且有 5.1% 的股息收益率。斯特恩不太可能以低價迴歸 Sirius XM，但投資者現在可以這樣做。</p>
</div>

天狼星 XM 廣播是否能在沒有霍華德·斯特恩的情況下繼續運營？