<p><strong>特斯拉</strong>（TSLA 0.54%）是全球市值最大的公司之一，今天的市值略超過 1 萬億美元。該公司是電動汽車、自動駕駛軟件和可再生能源的先驅，並全力進軍機器人出租車和類人機器人領域。</p>
<p>從表面上看，這家科技公司有很多值得稱道的地方。但深入挖掘後，考慮到其過去的成功和巨大的估值，特斯拉作為投資的風險要大得多。</p>
<p>當然，特斯拉的上限很高，但它的下限也非常低。這就是為什麼我預測 <strong>字母表</strong>（GOOG 1.25%）（GOOGL 1.14%）和 <strong>豐田汽車</strong>（TM 2.56%）在三年後都將超過特斯拉的價值。</p>
<p>這並不是聽起來那麼不可思議。以下是你需要知道的內容。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MjgwMjQvdGVzbGEtYm90LWhhbmQtY2xvc2V1cC1hcnRpZmljaWFsLWludGVsbGlnZW5jZS1haS5wbmcmdz03MDA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MjgwMjQvdGVzbGEtYm90LWhhbmQtY2xvc2V1cC1hcnRpZmljaWFsLWludGVsbGlnZW5jZS1haS5wbmcmdz03MDA"/></p>
<p>特斯拉 Optimus 機器人的手。圖片來源：特斯拉。</p>
<h2>特斯拉雄心勃勃的計劃可能需要時間，這可能會在短期內帶來麻煩</h2>
<p>特斯拉的敍述正在從其傳統電動汽車業務轉向機器人出租車和類人機器人，首席執行官埃隆·馬斯克和越來越多的投資者預計這將推動公司的未來價值。</p>
<p>特斯拉的電動汽車銷量已經開始下降，這可能至少部分是由於埃隆·馬斯克有時頗具爭議的政治化形象。問題在於，特斯拉剛剛開始推出其機器人出租車業務，該業務僅限於少量車輛，並採取了多項安全措施。特斯拉希望迅速擴大其車隊，但由於地方和州級法規，這可能比大多數人想象的要花更長的時間。請記住，特斯拉的自動駕駛技術仍然僅獲得了 2 級能力，這要求在車輛自主運行時必須有一名人類駕駛員在場。</p>
<p>Optimus，特斯拉的類人機器人，仍處於早期階段。雖然公司計劃今年生產 5000 個 Optimus 單元，但報告顯示特斯拉在這方面進展緩慢。也許 Optimus 有一天會產生埃隆·馬斯克所相信的數萬億美元的收入，但特斯拉以往設定的多個時間表都未能如承諾那樣執行。</p>
<p>除非特斯拉能夠在接下來的一年左右迅速提升機器人出租車和 Optimus 的進展，否則公司最近的銷售困境可能會對股價產生重大影響：</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/29403eede5c2c9b1321b3fb17a543652.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/29403eede5c2c9b1321b3fb17a543652.png"/></p>
<p>數據來源：YCharts。</p>
<p>在過去幾年中，收入增長停止並轉為負值。利潤率大幅下降。如果投資者將特斯拉視為一個 “證明自己” 的故事，當前股價超過 12 倍收入的特斯拉，合理地可能會看到至少 50% 的下行空間，因為其估值將更接近於汽車製造商而非科技公司。</p>
<h2>投資者可能對豐田的重視不足</h2>
<p>以豐田為例，它是全球最有價值的傳統汽車公司。其收入持續增長至新高，利潤率遠高於特斯拉，超過 3 個百分點。具有諷刺意味的是，豐田的市值僅為 2460 億美元，股票的市銷率（P/S）低於 1.0，遠低於特斯拉。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/5a0ff9f0af5f842d8dd25b19e2df5086.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/5a0ff9f0af5f842d8dd25b19e2df5086.png"/></p>
<p>數據來源：YCharts。</p>
<p>公平地説，我認為特斯拉的股價估值不太可能降到豐田的水平。如果特斯拉如投資者所希望的那樣在機器人出租車和 Optimus 上取得成功，潛在的上行空間太大——即使這需要比預期更長的時間。</p>
<p>但如果兩者在某個中間點相遇，豐田可能會超過特斯拉的價值。根據各自的過去 12 個月收入，如果特斯拉的市銷率降至約 3，豐田的估值將在市銷率為 1 時超過特斯拉。這一比較更多是關於特斯拉的下行風險，而非豐田的上行潛力，但它突顯瞭如果特斯拉未能實現一些非常雄心勃勃的目標，可能面臨的風險。</p>
<h2>字母表是自動駕駛車輛的真正市場領導者</h2>
<p>可以安全地説，Waymo 目前是領先的自動駕駛叫車公司。這使得母公司字母表處於有利位置。</p>
<p>字母表的市值超過 2.3 萬億美元，已經超過特斯拉，但有些人可能認為這種情況不會持續。Ark Invest 的凱西·伍德認為，特斯拉的價值將在機器人出租車增長中飆升。但就我而言，我對如此短期的時間框架持懷疑態度，原因如上所述。此外，字母表在人工智能領域是一個核心參與者，擁有蓬勃發展的雲計算業務和產生現金流的數字廣告業務。</p>
<p>有些人可能不會將字母表與自動駕駛車輛聯繫在一起。然而，字母表無疑是追求該市場的完美公司，因為它擁有如此強大的現有業務，可以為開發自動駕駛車隊的投資提供資金，並在美國各地擴展。Waymo 繼續宣佈新市場，直到特斯拉和機器人出租車縮小差距，很難不看好字母表的前景。</p>

豐田汽車

谷歌-A

谷歌-C

<p>文章預測，谷歌母公司 Alphabet 和豐田汽車將在三年內超過特斯拉的市值。特斯拉麪臨着其雄心勃勃的 Robotaxi 和人形機器人計劃的挑戰，這些計劃的實現可能比預期的時間更長。與此同時，豐田的收入和利潤率持續增長，而特斯拉的銷售額卻出現下滑。憑藉其在自動駕駛技術領域的領先地位，Alphabet 通過 Waymo 也具備良好的增長潛力。分析強調了特斯拉的潛在風險以及其競爭對手的對比優勢</p>

<p><strong>Tesla</strong>(TSLA 0.54%) is one of the world's largest companies by market value, worth a little over $1 trillion today. The company is a pioneer in electric vehicles, autonomous driving software, and renewable energy, and is charging full steam into Robotaxis and humanoid robotics.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>特斯拉</strong>（TSLA 0.54%）是全球市值最大的公司之一，今天的市值略超過 1 萬億美元。該公司是電動汽車、自動駕駛軟件和可再生能源的先驅，並全力進軍機器人出租車和類人機器人領域。</p>
</div><p>At face value, there is a lot to like about this technology company. But when you dig deeper, Tesla is far riskier as an investment, given its past success and massive valuation.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>從表面上看，這家科技公司有很多值得稱道的地方。但深入挖掘後，考慮到其過去的成功和巨大的估值，特斯拉作為投資的風險要大得多。</p>
</div><p>Sure, Tesla has a high ceiling, but it also has a very low floor. That's why I predict that <strong>Alphabet</strong>(GOOG 1.25%)(GOOGL 1.14%) and <strong>Toyota Motor</strong>(TM 2.56%) will both be worth more than Tesla three years from now.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>當然，特斯拉的上限很高，但它的下限也非常低。這就是為什麼我預測 <strong>字母表</strong>（GOOG 1.25%）（GOOGL 1.14%）和 <strong>豐田汽車</strong>（TM 2.56%）在三年後都將超過特斯拉的價值。</p>
</div><p>It's not as far-fetched as it sounds. Here is what you need to know.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這並不是聽起來那麼不可思議。以下是你需要知道的內容。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MjgwMjQvdGVzbGEtYm90LWhhbmQtY2xvc2V1cC1hcnRpZmljaWFsLWludGVsbGlnZW5jZS1haS5wbmcmdz03MDA" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F828024%2Ftesla-bot-hand-closeup-artificial-intelligence-ai.png&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>The hand of a Tesla Optimus robot. Image source: Tesla.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>特斯拉 Optimus 機器人的手。圖片來源：特斯拉。</p>
</div><h2>Tesla's ambitious plans will likely take time, and that could spell near-term trouble</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>特斯拉雄心勃勃的計劃可能需要時間，這可能會在短期內帶來麻煩</h2>
</div><p>The narrative around Tesla is shifting from its legacy electric vehicle business to Robotaxi and humanoid robotics, which CEO Elon Musk and an increasing number of investors expect to carry the company's value moving forward.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>特斯拉的敍述正在從其傳統電動汽車業務轉向機器人出租車和類人機器人，首席執行官埃隆·馬斯克和越來越多的投資者預計這將推動公司的未來價值。</p>
</div><p>Tesla's electric vehicle sales have started to decline, which could be at least partially due to Elon Musk's sometimes controversial, politicized persona. The issue here is that Tesla has only just begun launching its Robotaxi business, which is limited to a small number of vehicles with multiple safety measures in place. Tesla wants to expand its fleet rapidly, but that may take longer than most want to believe due to local and state-level regulations. Remember, Tesla's self-driving technology has still only obtained Level 2 capability, which mandates a human driver be present in the vehicle while it is autonomously operating.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>特斯拉的電動汽車銷量已經開始下降，這可能至少部分是由於埃隆·馬斯克有時頗具爭議的政治化形象。問題在於，特斯拉剛剛開始推出其機器人出租車業務，該業務僅限於少量車輛，並採取了多項安全措施。特斯拉希望迅速擴大其車隊，但由於地方和州級法規，這可能比大多數人想象的要花更長的時間。請記住，特斯拉的自動駕駛技術仍然僅獲得了 2 級能力，這要求在車輛自主運行時必須有一名人類駕駛員在場。</p>
</div><p>Optimus, Tesla's humanoid robot, is also still in early stages. While the company aims to build 5,000 Optimus units this year, reports indicate that Tesla is behind on that. Perhaps Optimus will someday generate the trillions of dollars in revenue Elon Musk believes it can, but Tesla has infamously established numerous timetables before that have failed to execute as promised.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Optimus，特斯拉的類人機器人，仍處於早期階段。雖然公司計劃今年生產 5000 個 Optimus 單元，但報告顯示特斯拉在這方面進展緩慢。也許 Optimus 有一天會產生埃隆·馬斯克所相信的數萬億美元的收入，但特斯拉以往設定的多個時間表都未能如承諾那樣執行。</p>
</div><p>Unless Tesla can ramp Robotaxi and Optimus very quickly over the next year or so, the company's recent sales struggles could weigh significantly on the stock:</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>除非特斯拉能夠在接下來的一年左右迅速提升機器人出租車和 Optimus 的進展，否則公司最近的銷售困境可能會對股價產生重大影響：</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/29403eede5c2c9b1321b3fb17a543652.png" alt="" original-src="https://media.ycharts.com/charts/29403eede5c2c9b1321b3fb17a543652.png"/></p>
<p>Data by YCharts.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>數據來源：YCharts。</p>
</div><p>Over the past few years, revenue growth ceased and then turned negative. Profit margins have cratered. If investors make Tesla a &#34;prove it&#34; story, the stock, trading at over 12 times revenue, could reasonably see at least 50% downside as its valuation shifts to more closely resemble that of an automotive manufacturer than a technology company.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在過去幾年中，收入增長停止並轉為負值。利潤率大幅下降。如果投資者將特斯拉視為一個 “證明自己” 的故事，當前股價超過 12 倍收入的特斯拉，合理地可能會看到至少 50% 的下行空間，因為其估值將更接近於汽車製造商而非科技公司。</p>
</div><h2>Investors may not appreciate Toyota enough</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>投資者可能對豐田的重視不足</h2>
</div><p>Take Toyota, for example, which is the world's most valuable legacy automotive company. Its revenue continues to grow to new highs, and its profit margin is far higher, clearing Tesla by over 3 percentage points. Ironically, Toyota has a market cap of just $246 billion, valuing the stock at a price-to-sales (P/S) ratio of less than 1.0, and a fraction of Tesla's.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>以豐田為例，它是全球最有價值的傳統汽車公司。其收入持續增長至新高，利潤率遠高於特斯拉，超過 3 個百分點。具有諷刺意味的是，豐田的市值僅為 2460 億美元，股票的市銷率（P/S）低於 1.0，遠低於特斯拉。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/5a0ff9f0af5f842d8dd25b19e2df5086.png" alt="" original-src="https://media.ycharts.com/charts/5a0ff9f0af5f842d8dd25b19e2df5086.png"/></p>
<p>Data by YCharts.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>數據來源：YCharts。</p>
</div><p>To be fair to Tesla, I don't think it's likely that the stock's valuation drops all the way down to Toyota's level. The upside is too high if it delivers on Robotaxi and Optimus as investors hope -- even if it takes longer than expected.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>公平地説，我認為特斯拉的股價估值不太可能降到豐田的水平。如果特斯拉如投資者所希望的那樣在機器人出租車和 Optimus 上取得成功，潛在的上行空間太大——即使這需要比預期更長的時間。</p>
</div><p>But Toyota could surpass Tesla's value if the two meet somewhere in the middle. Using each's trailing-12-month revenue, Toyota's valuation would overtake Tesla's at a P/S ratio of 1, if Tesla's fell to about 3. This comparison is more about Tesla's downside than Toyota's upside, but it highlights Tesla's potential risks if the company doesn't follow through on some very ambitious goals.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但如果兩者在某個中間點相遇，豐田可能會超過特斯拉的價值。根據各自的過去 12 個月收入，如果特斯拉的市銷率降至約 3，豐田的估值將在市銷率為 1 時超過特斯拉。這一比較更多是關於特斯拉的下行風險，而非豐田的上行潛力，但它突顯瞭如果特斯拉未能實現一些非常雄心勃勃的目標，可能面臨的風險。</p>
</div><h2>Alphabet is the true market leader in self-driving vehicles</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>字母表是自動駕駛車輛的真正市場領導者</h2>
</div><p>It seems safe to say that Waymo is currently the leading autonomous ride-hailing company. That puts parent company Alphabet in the driver's seat.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>可以安全地説，Waymo 目前是領先的自動駕駛叫車公司。這使得母公司字母表處於有利位置。</p>
</div><p>Alphabet, valued at over $2.3 trillion, is already worth more than Tesla, but some may not feel it will remain that way. Ark Invest's Cathie Wood believes that Tesla's value will skyrocket on Robotaxi growth. But I'm skeptical, at least of such a short time frame, for the reasons I walked through above. Additionally, Alphabet is a central player in artificial intelligence, with a blossoming cloud-computing business and digital advertising business that generates cash flow.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>字母表的市值超過 2.3 萬億美元，已經超過特斯拉，但有些人可能認為這種情況不會持續。Ark Invest 的凱西·伍德認為，特斯拉的價值將在機器人出租車增長中飆升。但就我而言，我對如此短期的時間框架持懷疑態度，原因如上所述。此外，字母表在人工智能領域是一個核心參與者，擁有蓬勃發展的雲計算業務和產生現金流的數字廣告業務。</p>
</div><p>Some might not associate Alphabet with self-driving vehicles. Yet Alphabet is arguably the perfect company to go after that market because it has such strong existing businesses that can fund the investments to develop a self-driving fleet and expand it across the United States. Waymo continues to announce new markets, and until Tesla and Robotaxi close the gap, it's hard not to like Alphabet's prospects better than Tesla's moving forward.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>有些人可能不會將字母表與自動駕駛車輛聯繫在一起。然而，字母表無疑是追求該市場的完美公司，因為它擁有如此強大的現有業務，可以為開發自動駕駛車隊的投資提供資金，並在美國各地擴展。Waymo 繼續宣佈新市場，直到特斯拉和機器人出租車縮小差距，很難不看好字母表的前景。</p>
</div>

Prediction: 2 Stocks That Will Be Worth More Than Tesla 3 Years From Now

- 特斯拉市值超過 1 萬億美元，正全力進軍 Robotaxi 和人形機器人領域。  
- 但其電動車銷售下滑，且自駕技術仍處於初級階段，面臨投資風險。  
- 預計三年後，Alphabet 和豐田的市值將超過特斯拉。

預測：三年後價值將超過特斯拉的兩隻股票