<p>在過去近 30 年的大部分時間裏，投資者都有一項顛覆性的技術或下一個大趨勢來吸引他們的注意力和錢包。這些被炒作的進步包括互聯網、基因解碼、區塊鏈技術和元宇宙。但自互聯網普及以來，投資者對人工智能（AI）崛起的熱情程度前所未有。</p>
<p>在《Sizing the Prize》中，普華永道的分析師將人工智能的可尋址機會，包括生產力提升和消費側效應，估計到 2030 年全球將達到 15.7 萬億美元。正是這樣的龐大數字推動了華爾街對 <strong>Palantir Technologies</strong>（PLTR -1.40%）的近乎拋物線式的攀升。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84Mjg4MDAvbW9uZXktbWFuYWdlci1zdG9jay1jaGFydC1tYXJrZXQtbGV2ZWwtMi1kYXRhLWludmVzdC1nZXR0eS5qcGcmdz03MDA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84Mjg4MDAvbW9uZXktbWFuYWdlci1zdG9jay1jaGFydC1tYXJrZXQtbGV2ZWwtMi1kYXRhLWludmVzdC1nZXR0eS5qcGcmdz03MDA"/></p>
<p>圖片來源：Getty Images。</p>
<p>截至 8 月 10 日，Palantir 已躍升為美國第 19 大上市公司，市值超過 4430 億美元。為了將其自 2023 年初以來超過 2800% 的漲幅放入背景中，它現在的市值已超過：</p>
<ul>
<li>醫療保健巨頭 <strong>強生公司</strong>，在 COVID-19 大流行之前連續 35 年實現調整後的營業收入增長。</li>
<li>倉儲俱樂部 <strong>好市多</strong>，在過去 20 年中僅有幾年的下滑。</li>
<li>家居改善連鎖店 <strong>家得寶</strong>，在新房建設、翻新和維修中扮演着核心角色。</li>
</ul>
<p>再上漲 2%，Palantir 將超越 <strong>埃克森美孚</strong>，成為美國最大的上市能源公司。</p>
<p>説 Palantir 的上漲令人印象深刻，實在是低估了它在如此短的時間內所取得的成就。但這也突顯了 Palantir 的上升可能是多麼危險。</p>
<h2>Palantir 的崛起源於其不可替代性</h2>
<p>Palantir Technologies 在兩年內從一隻普通科技股轉變為該行業最重要的企業之一，並非偶然。這反映了其帶來了明確且可持續的競爭優勢。</p>
<p>Palantir 的主要運營部門是 Gotham。這個基於人工智能和機器學習（ML）的軟件即服務（SaaS）平台被聯邦政府用於收集和分析數據，以及規劃和監督軍事任務。通常，Gotham 會從美國政府獲得多年合同，這為其每年的運營現金流提供了高度可預測性。</p>
<p>Palantir 的另一個核心運營部門是 Foundry。這個受人工智能和機器學習啓發的 SaaS 平台幫助企業理解其數據，以便簡化/自動化其運營。與 Gotham 相比，這是一個較新的部門，因此能夠提供更高的增長率。</p>
<p>Gotham 和 Foundry 都沒有大型競爭對手在爭奪客户。被認為不可替代的企業通常在華爾街享有健康的溢價。</p>
<p>Palantir 還通過在共識預期之前實現持續盈利來幫助自己。亞歷克斯·卡普的公司始終超越了即使是最樂觀的增長和盈利預測。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84Mjg4MDAvamVuZ2EtdG93ZXItd29vZC1yaXNrLW1vcnRnYWdlLXN0b2NrLWVjb25vbXktY3Jpc2lzLWdldHR5LmpwZyZ3PTcwMA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84Mjg4MDAvamVuZ2EtdG93ZXItd29vZC1yaXNrLW1vcnRnYWdlLXN0b2NrLWVjb25vbXktY3Jpc2lzLWdldHR5LmpwZyZ3PTcwMA"/></p>
<p>圖片來源：Getty Images。</p>
<h2>預測：這座紙牌屋崩潰只是時間問題</h2>
<p>雖然毫無疑問，考慮到其可持續的競爭優勢，Palantir 值得一個溢價估值，但這個溢價的理性上限是存在的。直言不諱地説，Palantir 具備了紙牌屋的所有特徵，最終將會崩潰。</p>
<p>請不要誤解我的論點：我並不是試圖準確預測 Palantir 股票的頂部。如果華爾街在過去 27 年中教會我任何事情，那就是股票可以在非理性狀態下維持的時間比空頭賣空者能保持的時間要長。但在某個時刻，我認為不久的將來，這種近乎拋物線的上升將以不光彩的方式結束。</p>
<p>首先，Palantir 必須克服宏觀壓力。例如，<strong>標準普爾 500 指數</strong>（^GSPC 0.32%）的 Shiller 市盈率最近達到了 154 年來的第三高水平。歷史告訴我們，當股票估值如此高時，華爾街的主要指數必然會經歷熊市下跌。如果歷史重演，華爾街的一些最大贏家（咳，Palantir）在市場普遍下跌時可能會受到最嚴重的打擊。</p>
<p>在這方面，過去三十多年沒有任何顛覆性的技術進步或創新能夠避免泡沫破裂事件。</p>
<p>包括互聯網在內，每一個被炒作的趨勢最終都會衰退，投資者始終高估顛覆性技術的效用或採用率。儘管企業在人工智能基礎設施上花費鉅額資金，但早期回報表明，大多數企業尚未優化其人工智能解決方案或產生正回報。如果人工智能泡沫破裂，Palantir 將成為眾矢之的。</p>
<p>但我們不妨直言不諱：Palantir 的估值完全無法辯解。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/462db4db3c348456becd1514f693f901.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/462db4db3c348456becd1514f693f901.png"/></p>
<p>PLTR PS 比率數據來自 YCharts。PS 比率=市銷率。</p>
<p>在標準普爾 500 指數和 <strong>納斯達克綜合指數</strong> 在互聯網泡沫破裂期間分別損失 49% 和 78% 的價值之前，華爾街的領先企業的市銷率（P/S）比率達到了 31 到 43 的峯值。也許並非巧合，人工智能巨頭 <strong>英偉達</strong> 在去年夏天的市銷率達到了 42。關鍵在於，30 到 40 的市銷率在歷史上一直是大型公司的上限。</p>
<p>截至 8 月 8 日收盤，Palantir 的市銷率為 137！這不是因為打錯字而變成的 37。這是第 19 大國內上市公司的過去 12 個月銷售額的 137 倍。在歷史上，沒有任何一家大型公司能夠接近證明或維持如此高的溢價估值。</p>
<p>即使 Palantir 的股票在接下來的四年裏橫盤整理，它的估值仍然是預測每股收益的 116 倍，交易價格為預測銷售額的 38 倍，這再次與之前泡沫破裂時的情況相符。</p>
<p>一個無法忽視的最終擔憂是，關於 2028 年之後 Gotham 的國防支出缺乏明確性。雖然特朗普總統的政府將國防支出和內部人工智能創新作為優先事項，但中期選舉和特朗普在 2029 年 1 月離開白宮可能會改變一切。</p>
<p>Palantir 的定價確實是為了完美。不幸的是，沒有任何情況是完美的。</p>

PLTR

<p>Palantir Technologies 已成為美國第 19 大上市公司，市值超過 4430 億美元，這得益於其人工智能和機器學習平台 Gotham 和 Foundry。儘管增長令人矚目，分析師警告稱 Palantir 的估值可能不可持續，將其比作一座在宏觀經濟壓力和潛在市場下滑下可能崩潰的 “紙牌屋”。該公司面臨着與過去科技泡沫類似的風險，因為許多企業在優化其人工智能投資方面遇到困難，這引發了人們對 Palantir 成功持久性的擔憂</p>

<p>For the better part of the past 30 years, investors have had a game-changing technology or next-big-thing trend to captivate their attention and wallets. Some of these hyped advancements include the internet, genome decoding, blockchain technology, and the metaverse. But not since the proliferation of the internet have investors demonstrated the level of enthusiasm they have for the rise of artificial intelligence (AI).</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在過去近 30 年的大部分時間裏，投資者都有一項顛覆性的技術或下一個大趨勢來吸引他們的注意力和錢包。這些被炒作的進步包括互聯網、基因解碼、區塊鏈技術和元宇宙。但自互聯網普及以來，投資者對人工智能（AI）崛起的熱情程度前所未有。</p>
</div><p>In <em>Sizing the Prize</em>, the analysts at PwC pegged the addressable opportunity for AI, inclusive of productivity improvements and consumption-side effects, at $15.7 trillion globally by 2030. It's mammoth figures like this that have fueled a near-parabolic climb in Wall Street's AI darling, <strong>Palantir Technologies</strong>(PLTR -1.40%).</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在《Sizing the Prize》中，普華永道的分析師將人工智能的可尋址機會，包括生產力提升和消費側效應，估計到 2030 年全球將達到 15.7 萬億美元。正是這樣的龐大數字推動了華爾街對 <strong>Palantir Technologies</strong>（PLTR -1.40%）的近乎拋物線式的攀升。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84Mjg4MDAvbW9uZXktbWFuYWdlci1zdG9jay1jaGFydC1tYXJrZXQtbGV2ZWwtMi1kYXRhLWludmVzdC1nZXR0eS5qcGcmdz03MDA" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F828800%2Fmoney-manager-stock-chart-market-level-2-data-invest-getty.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>圖片來源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><p>As of this writing on Aug. 10, Palantir has ascended the ladder to become the 19th largest publicly traded company in the U.S., with a market cap topping $443 billion. To put its more than 2,800% gain since the start of 2023 into context, it's now larger than:</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>截至 8 月 10 日，Palantir 已躍升為美國第 19 大上市公司，市值超過 4430 億美元。為了將其自 2023 年初以來超過 2800% 的漲幅放入背景中，它現在的市值已超過：</p>
</div><ul>
<li>Healthcare conglomerate <strong>Johnson &amp; Johnson</strong>, which had delivered adjusted operating earnings growth for 35 consecutive years prior to the COVID-19 pandemic.</li>
<li>Warehouse club <strong>Costco Wholesale</strong>, which has had just a couple of down years over the last two decades.</li>
<li>Home improvement chain <strong>Home Depot</strong>, which is a core player in new home construction, remodeling, and repairs.</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li>醫療保健巨頭 <strong>強生公司</strong>，在 COVID-19 大流行之前連續 35 年實現調整後的營業收入增長。</li>
<li>倉儲俱樂部 <strong>好市多</strong>，在過去 20 年中僅有幾年的下滑。</li>
<li>家居改善連鎖店 <strong>家得寶</strong>，在新房建設、翻新和維修中扮演着核心角色。</li>
</ul>
</div><p>Another 2% upside and Palantir will eclipse <strong>ExxonMobil</strong>, which is the largest publicly traded energy company in the United States.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>再上漲 2%，Palantir 將超越 <strong>埃克森美孚</strong>，成為美國最大的上市能源公司。</p>
</div><p>To say that Palantir's rally has been impressive would understate just how far it's come in such a short period. But it also highlights how perilous Palantir's ascent just might be.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>説 Palantir 的上漲令人印象深刻，實在是低估了它在如此短的時間內所取得的成就。但這也突顯了 Palantir 的上升可能是多麼危險。</p>
</div><h2>Palantir's ascent has been driven by its irreplaceability</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>Palantir 的崛起源於其不可替代性</h2>
</div><p>Palantir Technologies transitioning from just another tech stock to one of the sector's most important businesses in two years wasn't an accident. It's a reflection of bringing well-defined and sustainable competitive advantages to the table.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Palantir Technologies 在兩年內從一隻普通科技股轉變為該行業最重要的企業之一，並非偶然。這反映了其帶來了明確且可持續的競爭優勢。</p>
</div><p>Palantir's premier operating segment is Gotham. This AI- and machine learning (ML)-powered software-as-a-service (SaaS) platform is used by federal governments to collect and analyze data, as well as plan and oversee military missions. Typically, Gotham secures multiyear contracts from the U.S. government, which provides highly predictable operating cash flow year after year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Palantir 的主要運營部門是 Gotham。這個基於人工智能和機器學習（ML）的軟件即服務（SaaS）平台被聯邦政府用於收集和分析數據，以及規劃和監督軍事任務。通常，Gotham 會從美國政府獲得多年合同，這為其每年的運營現金流提供了高度可預測性。</p>
</div><p>The other core operating segment for Palantir is Foundry. This AI- and ML-inspired SaaS platform helps businesses make sense of their data in order to streamline/automate their operations. This is a newer segment, relative to Gotham, and is therefore capable of delivering a juicier growth rate.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Palantir 的另一個核心運營部門是 Foundry。這個受人工智能和機器學習啓發的 SaaS 平台幫助企業理解其數據，以便簡化/自動化其運營。與 Gotham 相比，這是一個較新的部門，因此能夠提供更高的增長率。</p>
</div><p>Neither Gotham nor Foundry has large-scale competitors angling for their clients. Businesses that are deemed irreplaceable are usually bestowed with a healthy premium on Wall Street.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Gotham 和 Foundry 都沒有大型競爭對手在爭奪客户。被認為不可替代的企業通常在華爾街享有健康的溢價。</p>
</div><p>Palantir has also helped its cause by becoming profitable on a recurring basis well ahead of consensus expectations. Alex Karp's company has consistently blown past even the loftiest growth and profit projections.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Palantir 還通過在共識預期之前實現持續盈利來幫助自己。亞歷克斯·卡普的公司始終超越了即使是最樂觀的增長和盈利預測。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84Mjg4MDAvamVuZ2EtdG93ZXItd29vZC1yaXNrLW1vcnRnYWdlLXN0b2NrLWVjb25vbXktY3Jpc2lzLWdldHR5LmpwZyZ3PTcwMA" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F828800%2Fjenga-tower-wood-risk-mortgage-stock-economy-crisis-getty.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>圖片來源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><h2>Prediction: It's not a matter of if but when this house of cards comes crashing down</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>預測：這座紙牌屋崩潰只是時間問題</h2>
</div><p>While there's no denying Palantir is worthy of a premium valuation given its sustainable competitive edges, there's a rational limit to what this premium entails. Put bluntly, Palantir has all the hallmarks of a house of cards that will, eventually, collapse.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>雖然毫無疑問，考慮到其可持續的競爭優勢，Palantir 值得一個溢價估值，但這個溢價的理性上限是存在的。直言不諱地説，Palantir 具備了紙牌屋的所有特徵，最終將會崩潰。</p>
</div><p>Make no mistake about the following argument: I'm not attempting to precisely call a top in Palantir stock. If Wall Street has taught me anything about investing over the past 27 years, it's that stocks can stay irrational longer than short-sellers can remain solvent. But at some point, in what I'd presume is the not-too-distant future, this near-parabolic ascent will end in an unceremonious fashion.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>請不要誤解我的論點：我並不是試圖準確預測 Palantir 股票的頂部。如果華爾街在過去 27 年中教會我任何事情，那就是股票可以在非理性狀態下維持的時間比空頭賣空者能保持的時間要長。但在某個時刻，我認為不久的將來，這種近乎拋物線的上升將以不光彩的方式結束。</p>
</div><p>First, Palantir will have to overcome macro pressures. For instance, the <strong>S&amp;P 500</strong>'s (^GSPC 0.32%) Shiller price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio recently hit its third priciest multiple when backtested 154 years. History tells us that when stock valuations become this extended, it's simply a matter of time before Wall Street's major indexes endure a bear market decline. If history were to follow suit, some of Wall Street's biggest winners (ahem, Palantir) would likely be hit hardest during a marketwide downturn.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>首先，Palantir 必須克服宏觀壓力。例如，<strong>標準普爾 500 指數</strong>（^GSPC 0.32%）的 Shiller 市盈率最近達到了 154 年來的第三高水平。歷史告訴我們，當股票估值如此高時，華爾街的主要指數必然會經歷熊市下跌。如果歷史重演，華爾街的一些最大贏家（咳，Palantir）在市場普遍下跌時可能會受到最嚴重的打擊。</p>
</div><p>Along these same lines, there hasn't been a game-changing technological advance or innovation that's avoided a bubble-bursting event in more than three decades.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在這方面，過去三十多年沒有任何顛覆性的技術進步或創新能夠避免泡沫破裂事件。</p>
</div><p>Including the internet, every hyped trend has eventually fallen off, with investors consistently overestimating the utility or adoption rates of game-changing technologies. Even though businesses are spending big bucks on AI infrastructure, early returns suggest most have yet to optimize their AI solutions or generate a positive return on their investments. If the AI bubble bursts, Palantir would have a bullseye on its proverbial back.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>包括互聯網在內，每一個被炒作的趨勢最終都會衰退，投資者始終高估顛覆性技術的效用或採用率。儘管企業在人工智能基礎設施上花費鉅額資金，但早期回報表明，大多數企業尚未優化其人工智能解決方案或產生正回報。如果人工智能泡沫破裂，Palantir 將成為眾矢之的。</p>
</div><p>But let's not beat around the bush: Palantir's valuation is completely unjustifiable.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但我們不妨直言不諱：Palantir 的估值完全無法辯解。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/462db4db3c348456becd1514f693f901.png" alt="" original-src="https://media.ycharts.com/charts/462db4db3c348456becd1514f693f901.png"/></p>
<p>PLTR PS Ratio data by YCharts. PS Ratio= price-to-sales ratio.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>PLTR PS 比率數據來自 YCharts。PS 比率=市銷率。</p>
</div><p>Before the S&amp;P 500 and <strong>Nasdaq Composite</strong> lost 49% and 78% of their respective value during the bursting of the dot-com bubble, Wall Street's leading businesses peaked at price-to-sales (P/S) ratios ranging from 31 to 43. Perhaps not coincidentally, AI powerhouse <strong>Nvidia</strong> topped out at a P/S ratio of 42 last summer. The point being that P/S ratios of 30 to 40 have historically served as ceilings for megacap companies.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在標準普爾 500 指數和 <strong>納斯達克綜合指數</strong> 在互聯網泡沫破裂期間分別損失 49% 和 78% 的價值之前，華爾街的領先企業的市銷率（P/S）比率達到了 31 到 43 的峯值。也許並非巧合，人工智能巨頭 <strong>英偉達</strong> 在去年夏天的市銷率達到了 42。關鍵在於，30 到 40 的市銷率在歷史上一直是大型公司的上限。</p>
</div><p>As of the closing bell on Aug. 8, Palantir's P/S ratio was 137! That's not 37 with an accidental typo. That's 137 times trailing-12-month sales for the 19th-largest domestic public company. There isn't a megacap company that's come even remotely close to justifying or sustaining such a premium valuation throughout history.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>截至 8 月 8 日收盤，Palantir 的市銷率為 137！這不是因為打錯字而變成的 37。這是第 19 大國內上市公司的過去 12 個月銷售額的 137 倍。在歷史上，沒有任何一家大型公司能夠接近證明或維持如此高的溢價估值。</p>
</div><p>Even if Palantir's stock went sideway for the next four years, it would be still be valued at 116 times forecast earnings per share and trade at 38 times projected sales, which again is right in line with where previous bubbles popped.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>即使 Palantir 的股票在接下來的四年裏橫盤整理，它的估值仍然是預測每股收益的 116 倍，交易價格為預測銷售額的 38 倍，這再次與之前泡沫破裂時的情況相符。</p>
</div><p>A final concern that can't be swept under the rug is the lack of clarity on defense spending for Gotham beyond 2028. While President Trump's administration has made defense spending and internal AI innovation a priority, midterm elections and Trump's departure from the White House in January 2029 can change everything.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>一個無法忽視的最終擔憂是，關於 2028 年之後 Gotham 的國防支出缺乏明確性。雖然特朗普總統的政府將國防支出和內部人工智能創新作為優先事項，但中期選舉和特朗普在 2029 年 1 月離開白宮可能會改變一切。</p>
</div><p>Palantir is truly priced for perfection. Unfortunately, no situation is ever perfect.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Palantir 的定價確實是為了完美。不幸的是，沒有任何情況是完美的。</p>
</div>

Palantir Is Now the 19th Largest Public Company. Is This House of Cards About to Come Crashing Down?

- Palantir Technologies 市值已達 4430 億美元，成為美國第 19 大上市公司。  
- 其 P/S 比率高達 137，遠超歷史上其他巨頭的 30-40。  
- AI 泡沫破裂風險加大，Palantir 可能面臨重大下行壓力。

Palantir 現在已成為第 19 大上市公司。這座紙牌屋是否即將倒塌？