<p>大約 30 年前，互聯網的出現和普及開始積極改變美國企業的增長軌跡。互聯網為企業提供了與潛在和現有客户互動的新方式，以及市場營銷其產品的新途徑。幾十年來，投資者一直在等待下一個技術飛躍，而人工智能（AI）革命似乎就是這個飛躍。</p>
<p>根據普華永道（PwC）分析師的預測，隨着人工智能的崛起，生產力和消費側效應的結合預計將在 2030 年前使全球國內生產總值增加 15700 億美元。這一龐大的可尋址市場是我們目睹華爾街的人工智能寵兒——<strong>英偉達</strong>（Nvidia）（NVDA 0.28%）、<strong>Palantir Technologies</strong>（PLTR -1.78%）和 <strong>超微半導體</strong>（Advanced Micro Devices）（AMD -1.81%）自 2023 年開始飆升的主要原因。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MjkwNTIvcmVkLWRpY2UtYnV5LXNlbGwtc3RvY2stY2hhcnQtZmluYW5jaWFsLWRhdGEtaW52ZXN0LWJpbGxpb25haXJlLWdldHR5LmpwZyZ3PTcwMA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MjkwNTIvcmVkLWRpY2UtYnV5LXNlbGwtc3RvY2stY2hhcnQtZmluYW5jaWFsLWRhdGEtaW52ZXN0LWJpbGxpb25haXJlLWdldHR5LmpwZyZ3PTcwMA"/></p>
<p>圖片來源：Getty Images。</p>
<p>英偉達的 Hopper（H100）和 Blackwell 圖形處理單元（GPU）佔據了在 AI 加速數據中心中部署的 GPU 的大部分。同時，超微半導體的 Instinct 系列 AI 加速芯片的生產正在擴大，預計將為企業數據中心的 AI-GPU 市場佔據一席之地。</p>
<p>至於 Palantir，其基於 AI 和機器學習的軟件即服務平台 Gotham 和 Foundry 提供了可持續的護城河。聯邦政府依賴 Gotham 進行軍事任務規劃和執行，以及數據收集和分析。同時，Foundry 是一個基於訂閲的企業平台，旨在幫助企業理解其大數據並簡化/自動化其運營。</p>
<p>儘管它們各自的股價上漲表明英偉達、Palantir 和超微半導體一切順利，但這三家公司共同向華爾街發出了近 130 億美元的警告。真正的問題是：你或其他投資者是否在關注這個警告？</p>
<h2>英偉達、Palantir 和超微半導體共同發出近 130 億美元的警告</h2>
<p>在未來幾個季度和幾年中，AI 股票可能面臨多種潛在的逆風，其中一些我稍後會提到。然而，更為顯著的擔憂之一與公司內部人士如何看待其公司股票有關。</p>
<p>好消息是：由於需要向證券交易委員會提交的 4 號表格，投資者可以追蹤高管和董事會成員的買賣活動。這些活動詳細記錄了普通股的買賣以及期權活動。</p>
<p>就英偉達、Palantir 和超微半導體而言，在過去五年中有一個非常明顯的趨勢（注意：Palantir 的首次公開募股是在 2020 年 9 月 30 日）：內部人士的賣出。</p>
<p>在過去五年中，淨賣出活動總計：</p>
<ul>
<li>英偉達超過 47.1 億美元。</li>
<li>Palantir 超過 74.3 億美元。</li>
<li>超微半導體約 7.62 億美元。</li>
</ul>
<p>在過去的五年中，這三傢俱有高度影響力的 AI 企業的內部人士共售出了超過 129 億美元的普通股。</p>
<p>然而，內部人士的賣出並不像表面上看起來那麼簡單。這就是説，內部人士可能會出於多種原因出售其公司的股票，而這些原因並不全是惡意的。</p>
<p>例如，大多數高管會獲得基於股票的薪酬和/或期權。期權必須在特定時間內行使，否則將失效。由於一些高管的薪酬大部分以股票或期權形式支付，他們必須出售公司股票以支付聯邦和/或州税。關鍵點是，並非所有的內部人士賣出都是壞事。</p>
<p>但與此同時，高管和董事會成員購買公司股票的唯一原因是：他們預計股票會升值。在過去五年中，高管和董事會成員在英偉達只進行了一次購買，在 Palantir 進行了一次購買，在超微半導體進行了兩次購買。</p>
<p>這裏的結論很簡單：如果英偉達、Palantir 和超微半導體的內部人士不願意購買自己公司的股票，為什麼普通投資者應該相信這三隻股票仍然有顯著的上漲空間？</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MjkwNTIvc3RvY2stY2hhcnQtY3Jhc2gtaW52ZXN0LWJyb2tlci10YWJsZXQtY3J5cHRvLXBsdW5nZS1idWJibGUtZ2V0dHkuanBnJnc9NzAw?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MjkwNTIvc3RvY2stY2hhcnQtY3Jhc2gtaW52ZXN0LWJyb2tlci10YWJsZXQtY3J5cHRvLXBsdW5nZS1idWJibGUtZ2V0dHkuanBnJnc9NzAw"/></p>
<p>圖片來源：Getty Images。</p>
<h2>內部活動並不是唯一的擔憂</h2>
<p>不幸的是，這近 130 億美元的警告並不是投資者唯一的擔憂。歷史先例是一個多方面的逆風，可能會顯著拖累 AI 股票的估值。</p>
<p>在討論以下內容之前，歷史並不總是保證在華爾街重演。如果有某種指標可以明確保證股票的短期方向性變動，你可以放心，大家現在都會在使用它。</p>
<p>儘管如此，確實存在與 <strong>標準普爾 500</strong> 和華爾街其他主要指數的方向性變動完美相關的歷史事件和指標。正是這些相關性表明英偉達、Palantir 和超微半導體可能面臨麻煩。</p>
<p>例如，自 1990 年代中期互聯網出現以來，每一次改變遊戲規則的創新都經歷過一次泡沫破裂事件，通常發生在其擴張的早期。這一系列備受關注的創新經歷泡沫的過程表明，投資者一貫高估新技術的實用性和早期採用情況。</p>
<p>儘管對人工智能基礎設施的支出一直很強勁，正如英偉達和 AMD 的運營結果所示，但大多數企業尚未優化其人工智能解決方案或實現其人工智能投資的正回報。人工智能不太可能避免之前那些下一個大趨勢的命運。</p>
<p>歷史先例影響的另一個領域是估值。儘管 AMD 的估值並不算過高，但英偉達和 Palantir 的情況就不那麼樂觀，它們與歷史發生了衝突。</p>
<p>在 25 年前互聯網泡沫破裂之前，處於互聯網革命前沿的企業的市銷率通常在過去 12 個月銷售額的 30 到 40 倍之間。截止到 8 月 12 日，英偉達的市銷率接近 31，而 Palantir 的市銷率為 137，這是我在 27 年的投資生涯中見過的最大市銷率。</p>
<p>雖然這兩家公司都提供了值得溢價估值的競爭優勢，但歷史非常清楚，這種程度的長期溢價是不可持續的。</p>
<p>在持續的內部人士賣出、幾乎沒有內部人士買入以及不斷增加的歷史阻力下，英偉達、Palantir 和 AMD 的風險與回報的天平無疑傾向於 “風險”。</p>

英偉達

PLTR

<p>英偉達、Palantir 和 AMD 聯合向華爾街發出了近 130 億美元的警告，主要是由於過去五年內內部人士的重大減持，總額超過 129 億美元。儘管人工智能行業具有增長潛力，但內部人士幾乎沒有進行股票購買，這引發了對未來股票表現的質疑。此外，歷史趨勢表明人工智能股票估值可能面臨阻力，投資者應對這些公司的前景保持謹慎</p>

<p>Roughly 30 years ago, the advent and proliferation of the internet began positively altering the growth arc for corporate America. The internet offered businesses new ways to interact with prospective and existing clients, as well as market their products. For decades, investors have been waiting for the next technological leap forward, and the artificial intelligence (AI) revolution looks to be it.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>大約 30 年前，互聯網的出現和普及開始積極改變美國企業的增長軌跡。互聯網為企業提供了與潛在和現有客户互動的新方式，以及市場營銷其產品的新途徑。幾十年來，投資者一直在等待下一個技術飛躍，而人工智能（AI）革命似乎就是這個飛躍。</p>
</div><p>The combination of increased productivity and consumption-side effects associated with the rise of AI is expected to increase global gross domestic product by $15.7 trillion come 2030, according to analysts at PwC. This sky-high addressable market is the primary reason we've witnessed Wall Street's AI darlings -- <strong>Nvidia</strong>(NVDA 0.28%), <strong>Palantir Technologies</strong>(PLTR -1.78%), and <strong>Advanced Micro Devices</strong>(AMD -1.81%), which is commonly known as &#34;AMD&#34; -- soar since 2023 began.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>根據普華永道（PwC）分析師的預測，隨着人工智能的崛起，生產力和消費側效應的結合預計將在 2030 年前使全球國內生產總值增加 15700 億美元。這一龐大的可尋址市場是我們目睹華爾街的人工智能寵兒——<strong>英偉達</strong>（Nvidia）（NVDA 0.28%）、<strong>Palantir Technologies</strong>（PLTR -1.78%）和 <strong>超微半導體</strong>（Advanced Micro Devices）（AMD -1.81%）自 2023 年開始飆升的主要原因。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MjkwNTIvcmVkLWRpY2UtYnV5LXNlbGwtc3RvY2stY2hhcnQtZmluYW5jaWFsLWRhdGEtaW52ZXN0LWJpbGxpb25haXJlLWdldHR5LmpwZyZ3PTcwMA" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F829052%2Fred-dice-buy-sell-stock-chart-financial-data-invest-billionaire-getty.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>圖片來源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><p>Nvidia's Hopper (H100) and Blackwell graphics processing units (GPUs) account for the bulk of the GPUs deployed in AI-accelerated data centers. Meanwhile, production for AMD's Instinct series AI-accelerating chips is expanding, with the expectation that it'll carve out a healthy share of the AI-GPU market for enterprise data centers.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>英偉達的 Hopper（H100）和 Blackwell 圖形處理單元（GPU）佔據了在 AI 加速數據中心中部署的 GPU 的大部分。同時，超微半導體的 Instinct 系列 AI 加速芯片的生產正在擴大，預計將為企業數據中心的 AI-GPU 市場佔據一席之地。</p>
</div><p>As for Palantir, its AI- and machine learning-powered software-as-a-service Gotham and Foundry platforms offer sustainable moats. Federal governments turn to Gotham for military mission planning and execution, along with data collection and analysis. Meanwhile, Foundry is a subscription-driven platform for businesses looking to make sense of their big data and streamline/automate their operations.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>至於 Palantir，其基於 AI 和機器學習的軟件即服務平台 Gotham 和 Foundry 提供了可持續的護城河。聯邦政府依賴 Gotham 進行軍事任務規劃和執行，以及數據收集和分析。同時，Foundry 是一個基於訂閲的企業平台，旨在幫助企業理解其大數據並簡化/自動化其運營。</p>
</div><p>While their respective share price appreciation indicates everything is going great for Nvidia, Palantir, and AMD, all three companies have, collectively, offered up a nearly $13 billion warning to Wall Street. The real question is: Are you, or any other investors, heeding this warning?</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>儘管它們各自的股價上漲表明英偉達、Palantir 和超微半導體一切順利，但這三家公司共同向華爾街發出了近 130 億美元的警告。真正的問題是：你或其他投資者是否在關注這個警告？</p>
</div><h2>Nvidia, Palantir, and AMD combine for close to a $13 billion warning</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>英偉達、Palantir 和超微半導體共同發出近 130 億美元的警告</h2>
</div><p>There are a number of potential headwinds that can come into play for AI stocks over the coming quarters and years, some of which I'll touch on a bit later. However, one of the more front-and-center concerns has to do with the how corporate insiders have approached their company's stock.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在未來幾個季度和幾年中，AI 股票可能面臨多種潛在的逆風，其中一些我稍後會提到。然而，更為顯著的擔憂之一與公司內部人士如何看待其公司股票有關。</p>
</div><p>Here's the good news: Thanks to required Form 4 filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission, investors have the ability to track the purchasing and selling activity of executives and board members. This activity details the buying and selling of common stock, as well as options activity.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>好消息是：由於需要向證券交易委員會提交的 4 號表格，投資者可以追蹤高管和董事會成員的買賣活動。這些活動詳細記錄了普通股的買賣以及期權活動。</p>
</div><p>When it comes to Nvidia, Palantir, and AMD, there's been a very clear trend over the last five years (note: Palantir's initial public offering was Sept. 30, 2020): insider selling.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>就英偉達、Palantir 和超微半導體而言，在過去五年中有一個非常明顯的趨勢（注意：Palantir 的首次公開募股是在 2020 年 9 月 30 日）：內部人士的賣出。</p>
</div><p>Over the trailing-five-year period, net selling activity has totaled:</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在過去五年中，淨賣出活動總計：</p>
</div><ul>
<li>More than $4.71 billion for Nvidia.</li>
<li>Over $7.43 billion for Palantir.</li>
<li>Approximately $762 million for AMD.</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li>英偉達超過 47.1 億美元。</li>
<li>Palantir 超過 74.3 億美元。</li>
<li>超微半導體約 7.62 億美元。</li>
</ul>
</div><p>Collectively, the insiders of these three highly influential AI businesses have sold north of $12.9 billion worth of their common stock over the trailing half-decade.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在過去的五年中，這三傢俱有高度影響力的 AI 企業的內部人士共售出了超過 129 億美元的普通股。</p>
</div><p>However, insider selling isn't as cut-and-dried as it might appear on the surface. This is to say there are a lot of reasons insiders might sell their company's stock -- and they're not all nefarious.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，內部人士的賣出並不像表面上看起來那麼簡單。這就是説，內部人士可能會出於多種原因出售其公司的股票，而這些原因並不全是惡意的。</p>
</div><p>For instance, most executives receive stock-based compensation and/or options. Options are required to be exercised within a certain time frame, otherwise they expire worthless. With some executives receiving the lion's share of their compensation in stock or options, they have to sell their company's stock to cover their federal and/or state tax bill. The key point here is that not all insider selling is necessarily bad.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>例如，大多數高管會獲得基於股票的薪酬和/或期權。期權必須在特定時間內行使，否則將失效。由於一些高管的薪酬大部分以股票或期權形式支付，他們必須出售公司股票以支付聯邦和/或州税。關鍵點是，並非所有的內部人士賣出都是壞事。</p>
</div><p>But at the same time, there's only one reason executives and board members purchase their company's stock: they expect it to head higher. Over the trailing five-year period, executives and board members have made exactly one purchase at Nvidia, one purchase at Palantir, and two purchases at AMD.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但與此同時，高管和董事會成員購買公司股票的唯一原因是：他們預計股票會升值。在過去五年中，高管和董事會成員在英偉達只進行了一次購買，在 Palantir 進行了一次購買，在超微半導體進行了兩次購買。</p>
</div><p>The takeaway here is simple: if insiders at Nvidia, Palantir, and AMD aren't willing to purchase their own company's stock, why should everyday investors believe these three stocks still offer significant upside?</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這裏的結論很簡單：如果英偉達、Palantir 和超微半導體的內部人士不願意購買自己公司的股票，為什麼普通投資者應該相信這三隻股票仍然有顯著的上漲空間？</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MjkwNTIvc3RvY2stY2hhcnQtY3Jhc2gtaW52ZXN0LWJyb2tlci10YWJsZXQtY3J5cHRvLXBsdW5nZS1idWJibGUtZ2V0dHkuanBnJnc9NzAw" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F829052%2Fstock-chart-crash-invest-broker-tablet-crypto-plunge-bubble-getty.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>圖片來源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><h2>Insider activity isn't the only concern</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>內部活動並不是唯一的擔憂</h2>
</div><p>Unfortunately, this nearly $13 billion warning isn't the only worry for investors. Historical precedent is a multipronged headwind that has the potential to meaningfully drag down AI stock valuations.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>不幸的是，這近 130 億美元的警告並不是投資者唯一的擔憂。歷史先例是一個多方面的逆風，可能會顯著拖累 AI 股票的估值。</p>
</div><p>To preface the following discussion, history is never guaranteed to repeat on Wall Street. If there was an indicator that concretely guaranteed short-term directional moves in stocks, you can rest assured that everyone would be using it by now.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在討論以下內容之前，歷史並不總是保證在華爾街重演。如果有某種指標可以明確保證股票的短期方向性變動，你可以放心，大家現在都會在使用它。</p>
</div><p>Nevertheless, there <em>are</em> historical events and metrics that have flawlessly correlated with directional moves for the <strong>S&amp;P 500</strong> and Wall Street's other major indexes in the past. It's these correlations that suggest Nvidia, Palantir, and AMD could be in a world of trouble.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>儘管如此，確實存在與 <strong>標準普爾 500</strong> 和華爾街其他主要指數的方向性變動完美相關的歷史事件和指標。正是這些相關性表明英偉達、Palantir 和超微半導體可能面臨麻煩。</p>
</div><p>For example, every game-changing innovation since (and including) the advent of the internet in the mid-1990s has endured a bubble-bursting event fairly early in its expansion. This long line of hyped innovations navigating their way through bubbles signals that investors consistently overestimate the utility and early stage adoption of new technologies.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>例如，自 1990 年代中期互聯網出現以來，每一次改變遊戲規則的創新都經歷過一次泡沫破裂事件，通常發生在其擴張的早期。這一系列備受關注的創新經歷泡沫的過程表明，投資者一貫高估新技術的實用性和早期採用情況。</p>
</div><p>Although spending on AI infrastructure has been robust, as Nvidia's and AMD's operating results suggest, most businesses have yet to optimize their AI solutions or generate a positive return on their AI investments. It's unlikely that artificial intelligence will avoid the fate of previous next-big-thing trends.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>儘管對人工智能基礎設施的支出一直很強勁，正如英偉達和 AMD 的運營結果所示，但大多數企業尚未優化其人工智能解決方案或實現其人工智能投資的正回報。人工智能不太可能避免之前那些下一個大趨勢的命運。</p>
</div><p>The other area where historical precedent comes into play is valuations. Though AMD's valuation isn't egregiously high, the same can't be said for Nvidia or Palantir, which are butting heads with history.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>歷史先例影響的另一個領域是估值。儘管 AMD 的估值並不算過高，但英偉達和 Palantir 的情況就不那麼樂觀，它們與歷史發生了衝突。</p>
</div><p>Before the bursting of the dot-com bubble a quarter of a century ago, businesses on the leading edge of the internet revolution consistently peaked at around 30 to 40 times trailing-12-month sales. As of this writing on Aug. 12, Nvidia is tipping the scales at a price-to-sales (P/S) ratio of nearly 31, while Palantir's P/S ratio is 137, which is the highest I've ever witnessed for a megacap company in 27 years of investing.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在 25 年前互聯網泡沫破裂之前，處於互聯網革命前沿的企業的市銷率通常在過去 12 個月銷售額的 30 到 40 倍之間。截止到 8 月 12 日，英偉達的市銷率接近 31，而 Palantir 的市銷率為 137，這是我在 27 年的投資生涯中見過的最大市銷率。</p>
</div><p>While both companies offer competitive advantages that are worthy of valuation premiums, history is quite clear that extended premiums of this magnitude aren't sustainable over the long run.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>雖然這兩家公司都提供了值得溢價估值的競爭優勢，但歷史非常清楚，這種程度的長期溢價是不可持續的。</p>
</div><p>Between persistent insider selling, a virtual lack of insider buying, and mounting historical headwinds, the risk-versus-reward pendulum for Nvidia, Palantir, and AMD has undeniably swung toward &#34;risk.&#34;</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在持續的內部人士賣出、幾乎沒有內部人士買入以及不斷增加的歷史阻力下，英偉達、Palantir 和 AMD 的風險與回報的天平無疑傾向於 “風險”。</p>
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Nvidia, Palantir, and AMD Have a Nearly $13 Billion Warning for Wall Street -- but Are You Paying Attention?

- 人工智能預計到 2030 年將推動全球 GDP 增長 1.57 萬億美元。  
- Nvidia、Palantir 和 AMD 的高管在過去五年內共售出超過 129 億美元股票。  
- 歷史數據顯示，技術股常面臨泡沫破裂風險，當前估值過高。  

英偉達、Palantir Tech 和 AMD 對華爾街發出了近 130 億美元的警告——你是否在關注？