<p>在 8 月 5 日以每股 202.69 美元收盤後，<strong>蘋果</strong>（AAPL -0.55%）的股票在短短三天內飆升了驚人的 13%，在 8 月 8 日以每股 229.09 美元收盤。</p>
<p>這一舉動使得這家科技巨頭的市值達到了 3.404 萬億美元，增加了驚人的 3940 億美元。這就像憑空創造了一家與 <strong>家得寶</strong> 相當的公司。</p>
<p>在經歷了大部分時間的低迷後，讓我們來判斷蘋果是否具備與 <strong>英偉達</strong>（NVDA -0.85%）和 <strong>微軟</strong>（MSFT -0.40%）一起加入 4 萬億美元市值俱樂部的能力，以及這隻成長股現在是否值得購買。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84Mjg5OTYvYS1wZXJzb24tc21pbGVzLXdoaWxlLWxlYW5pbmctb24tYS1yYWlsaW5nLWluLWFuLXVyYmFuLXNldHRpbmctYnktYS1ib2R5LW9mLXdhdGVyLmpwZyZ3PTcwMA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="700" height="466" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84Mjg5OTYvYS1wZXJzb24tc21pbGVzLXdoaWxlLWxlYW5pbmctb24tYS1yYWlsaW5nLWluLWFuLXVyYmFuLXNldHRpbmctYnktYS1ib2R5LW9mLXdhdGVyLmpwZyZ3PTcwMA"/></p>
<p>圖片來源：Getty Images。</p>
<h2>蘋果的重大新聞</h2>
<p>蘋果的突然上漲是由於其 1000 億美元的製造計劃。該計劃上週宣佈，將創造美國就業機會，並將蘋果複雜的供應鏈部分回流到美國。</p>
<p>由於蘋果首席執行官蒂姆·庫克訪問白宮以及蘋果的製造承諾，特朗普總統表示蘋果將 100% 免除對進口半導體的特定關税。蘋果有可能減少其高昂的關税支出，甚至可能獲得政府對其回流努力的支持，這無疑對公司的短期前景是個利好。</p>
<p>蘋果並不是唯一一家試圖與現任政府在關税問題上合作的巨頭公司。週一，有報道稱英偉達與特朗普總統達成了一項協議，允許這家芯片製造商恢復出口其 H20 芯片，以換取向美國政府支付 15% 的中國收入。H20 是英偉達最先進芯片的縮小版，專為符合貿易限制的中國市場定製。現任政府打算保留某些關税，但似乎也願意與大企業談判達成協議。</p>
<p>蘋果的製造新聞是積極的，基於關税的短期影響。這項投資可能幫助蘋果減少對貿易緊張局勢和地緣政治風險的敏感性。然而，目前尚不清楚這將如何影響蘋果的長期投資論點。蘋果已經掌握了管理全球供應鏈以實現成本優勢和提高利潤率的藝術。將部分供應鏈回流可能會導致成本上升。</p>
<p>然而，蘋果在人工智能（AI）領域尚未取得顯著進展，這也是這家科技巨頭落後於其他更明確的 AI 贏家如英偉達和微軟的主要原因之一。</p>
<p>為了為蘋果辯護，該公司在蘋果智能（Apple Intelligence）基礎上進行了構建，併發布了一項名為液態玻璃（Liquid Glass）的新設計更新。總體而言，考慮到蘋果近年來增長緩慢，市場對該公司的 AI 努力並不感到滿意。</p>
<h2>蘋果的盈利增長無法證明其高估值的合理性</h2>
<p>蘋果在很大程度上依賴其高利潤率的服務部門和股票回購來推動盈利，以抵消其產品部門的疲軟表現。蘋果的服務，包括 iCloud、Apple Music 和 Apple TV+，多年來一直是亮點。但蘋果的底線更依賴於關鍵產品，如 iPhone、Mac、iPad 和可穿戴設備。</p>
<p>在蘋果最新的財報——2025 財年的第三季度發佈後，投資者鬆了一口氣，該財報顯示其產品部門有顯著改善。收入增長了 10%，稀釋後每股收益（EPS）躍升了 12%，其中 iPhone、Mac 和服務均實現了兩位數的增長。儘管這一季度表現良好，蘋果的淨收入在過去三年中略有下降，因此其盈利僅因回購而上升。但股價大幅上漲，使得蘋果相對昂貴。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/3170ce65c9090cd3edb1d1828bb3f1c6.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="720" height="539" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/3170ce65c9090cd3edb1d1828bb3f1c6.png"/></p>
<p>AAPL 數據來源於 YCharts。</p>
<p>蘋果的業績朝着正確的方向發展，但估值遠非便宜。實際上，蘋果的前瞻市盈率（P/E），即股價除以分析師對未來 12 個月 EPS 的共識預期，已高於其五年和十年的中位數 P/E 比率。即使蘋果按預期表現，股價在一年內不變，它仍然會相對昂貴。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/ffe3e00ceb14cedba401d4ad0777706b.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="720" height="521" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/ffe3e00ceb14cedba401d4ad0777706b.png"/></p>
<p>AAPL 市盈率數據來源於 YCharts。</p>
<h2>蘋果必須艱難地賺取 4 萬億美元</h2>
<p>蘋果在其產品系列中整合 AI 的方式是正確的。蘋果的競爭優勢在於其設計、用户友好的產品、軟件和硬件的無縫集成，以及為消費者和企業提供的全面產品。換句話説，蘋果 AI 功能的日常實用性是最重要的績效指標。</p>
<p>同意蘋果在 AI 方面謹慎做法的投資者，儘管估值較高，仍可能希望現在購買該股票。然而，考慮到蘋果的高價，其達到 4 萬億美元市值的道路可能需要依靠盈利增長，而非估值擴張。</p>
<p>在撰寫本文時，蘋果的市值為 3.418 萬億美元，要跨越 4 萬億美元，它需要上漲 17%。在一兩年內，它當然可以實現如此規模的盈利增長。如果投資者喜歡公司在 AI 方面的舉措，它可能會維持高於歷史水平的估值。</p>
<p>總的來説，我預計蘋果將在 2026 年底之前跨越 4 萬億美元的市值，但投資者不應指望公司能在一夜之間實現這一目標——即使在短短三天內增加了 3920 億美元的市值。</p>

蘋果

2 倍做多 AAPL ETF - GraniteShares

蘋果每日 1 倍做空 ETF - Direxion

蘋果每日 2 倍做多 ETF - Direxion

AAPX

AAPY

APLY

<p>蘋果的股票在三天內飆升了 13%，市值增加了 3940 億美元，達到了 3.404 萬億美元。這一增長是在宣佈了一項 1000 億美元的製造計劃之後，該計劃旨在創造美國就業機會並減少關税支出。儘管短期前景樂觀，但人們對蘋果的長期增長仍然存在擔憂，特別是在人工智能領域，蘋果在競爭中落後於英偉達和微軟。儘管最近的財報顯示出改善，但蘋果的高估值引發了人們對其未來表現及能否加入 4 萬億美元市值俱樂部的質疑</p>

<p>After closing at $202.69 per share on Aug. 5, <strong>Apple</strong>(AAPL -0.55%) stock soared a staggering 13% in just three days to finish Aug. 8 at $229.09 per share.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在 8 月 5 日以每股 202.69 美元收盤後，<strong>蘋果</strong>（AAPL -0.55%）的股票在短短三天內飆升了驚人的 13%，在 8 月 8 日以每股 229.09 美元收盤。</p>
</div><p>The move pole-vaulted the tech giant's market cap to $3.404 trillion -- a whopping $394 billion gain. That's like creating a company the size of <strong>Home Depot</strong> out of thin air.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這一舉動使得這家科技巨頭的市值達到了 3.404 萬億美元，增加了驚人的 3940 億美元。這就像憑空創造了一家與 <strong>家得寶</strong> 相當的公司。</p>
</div><p>After languishing for most of the year, let's determine if Apple has what it takes to join <strong>Nvidia</strong>(NVDA -0.85%) and <strong>Microsoft</strong>(MSFT -0.40%) in the $4 trillion market cap club, and if the growth stock is a buy now.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在經歷了大部分時間的低迷後，讓我們來判斷蘋果是否具備與 <strong>英偉達</strong>（NVDA -0.85%）和 <strong>微軟</strong>（MSFT -0.40%）一起加入 4 萬億美元市值俱樂部的能力，以及這隻成長股現在是否值得購買。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84Mjg5OTYvYS1wZXJzb24tc21pbGVzLXdoaWxlLWxlYW5pbmctb24tYS1yYWlsaW5nLWluLWFuLXVyYmFuLXNldHRpbmctYnktYS1ib2R5LW9mLXdhdGVyLmpwZyZ3PTcwMA" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F828996%2Fa-person-smiles-while-leaning-on-a-railing-in-an-urban-setting-by-a-body-of-water.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>圖片來源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><h2>Apple's massive news</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>蘋果的重大新聞</h2>
</div><p>Apple's sudden pop came in response to its $100 billion manufacturing program. Announced last week, the program will create American jobs and onshore some of Apple's complex supply chain.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>蘋果的突然上漲是由於其 1000 億美元的製造計劃。該計劃上週宣佈，將創造美國就業機會，並將蘋果複雜的供應鏈部分回流到美國。</p>
</div><p>Due to Apple CEO Tim Cook's visit to the White House and Apple's manufacturing commitment, President Trump said that Apple would be 100% exempt from a specific tariff on imported semiconductors. The potential for Apple to reduce its costly tariff expense, and maybe even get government support for its onshoring efforts, is undoubtedly a boon for the company's near-term prospects.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>由於蘋果首席執行官蒂姆·庫克訪問白宮以及蘋果的製造承諾，特朗普總統表示蘋果將 100% 免除對進口半導體的特定關税。蘋果有可能減少其高昂的關税支出，甚至可能獲得政府對其回流努力的支持，這無疑對公司的短期前景是個利好。</p>
</div><p>Apple isn't the only mega-cap company that is trying to work with the current administration on tariffs. On Monday, reports indicated that Nvidia made a deal with President Trump, allowing the chipmaker to resume exporting its H20 chips in exchange for giving the U.S. government 15% of its revenue from China. The H20 is a scaled-down version of Nvidia's most advanced chips, which are custom-built for Chinese markets to comply with trade restrictions. The current administration intends to retain certain tariffs, but it also appears willing to negotiate deals with big businesses.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>蘋果並不是唯一一家試圖與現任政府在關税問題上合作的巨頭公司。週一，有報道稱英偉達與特朗普總統達成了一項協議，允許這家芯片製造商恢復出口其 H20 芯片，以換取向美國政府支付 15% 的中國收入。H20 是英偉達最先進芯片的縮小版，專為符合貿易限制的中國市場定製。現任政府打算保留某些關税，但似乎也願意與大企業談判達成協議。</p>
</div><p>Apple's manufacturing news is positive, based on the near-term impact of tariffs. The investment could help Apple reduce its sensitivity to trade tensions and geopolitical risk. However, it's unclear how it impacts Apple's long-term investment thesis. Apple has mastered the art of managing a global supply chain to achieve cost advantages and boost its profit margins. Onshoring some of its supply chain could lead to higher costs.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>蘋果的製造新聞是積極的，基於關税的短期影響。這項投資可能幫助蘋果減少對貿易緊張局勢和地緣政治風險的敏感性。然而，目前尚不清楚這將如何影響蘋果的長期投資論點。蘋果已經掌握了管理全球供應鏈以實現成本優勢和提高利潤率的藝術。將部分供應鏈回流可能會導致成本上升。</p>
</div><p>However, Apple has yet to make a meaningful splash in artificial intelligence (AI) -- which is one of the main reasons why the tech giant has been lagging behind the performance of other, more defined AI winners like Nvidia and Microsoft.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，蘋果在人工智能（AI）領域尚未取得顯著進展，這也是這家科技巨頭落後於其他更明確的 AI 贏家如英偉達和微軟的主要原因之一。</p>
</div><p>In Apple's defense, the company has built on Apple Intelligence and released a new design update called Liquid Glass. Overall, the market is not impressed with the company's AI efforts, considering how sluggish Apple's growth has been in recent years.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>為了為蘋果辯護，該公司在蘋果智能（Apple Intelligence）基礎上進行了構建，併發布了一項名為液態玻璃（Liquid Glass）的新設計更新。總體而言，考慮到蘋果近年來增長緩慢，市場對該公司的 AI 努力並不感到滿意。</p>
</div><h2>Apple's earnings growth doesn't justify its lofty valuation</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>蘋果的盈利增長無法證明其高估值的合理性</h2>
</div><p>Apple has heavily relied on its high-margin services segment and stock buybacks to drive earnings to offset weak results from its product segment. Apple's services, which include iCloud, Apple Music, and Apple TV+, have been the standout for years now. But Apple's bottom line depends more on key products, like iPhone, Mac, iPad, and wearables.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>蘋果在很大程度上依賴其高利潤率的服務部門和股票回購來推動盈利，以抵消其產品部門的疲軟表現。蘋果的服務，包括 iCloud、Apple Music 和 Apple TV+，多年來一直是亮點。但蘋果的底線更依賴於關鍵產品，如 iPhone、Mac、iPad 和可穿戴設備。</p>
</div><p>Investors breathed a sigh of relief after Apple's latest quarter -- the third quarter of fiscal 2025 -- which showed a significant improvement in its product segment. Revenue grew 10% and diluted earnings per share (EPS) jumped 12% including double-digit growth in iPhone, Mac, and services. Despite the solid quarter, Apple's net income has slightly declined over the last three years, so its earnings are only up due to buybacks. But the stock price has gone up substantially, which has made Apple relatively expensive.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在蘋果最新的財報——2025 財年的第三季度發佈後，投資者鬆了一口氣，該財報顯示其產品部門有顯著改善。收入增長了 10%，稀釋後每股收益（EPS）躍升了 12%，其中 iPhone、Mac 和服務均實現了兩位數的增長。儘管這一季度表現良好，蘋果的淨收入在過去三年中略有下降，因此其盈利僅因回購而上升。但股價大幅上漲，使得蘋果相對昂貴。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/3170ce65c9090cd3edb1d1828bb3f1c6.png" alt="" original-src="https://media.ycharts.com/charts/3170ce65c9090cd3edb1d1828bb3f1c6.png"/></p>
<p>AAPL data by YCharts.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>AAPL 數據來源於 YCharts。</p>
</div><p>Apple's results are headed in the right direction, but the valuation is far from cheap. In fact, Apple's forward price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio, which is the stock price divided by analyst consensus EPS estimates over the next 12 months, is higher than its five-year and 10-year median P/E ratios. Even if Apple performs as expected and the stock price doesn't move for a year, it will still be relatively expensive.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>蘋果的業績朝着正確的方向發展，但估值遠非便宜。實際上，蘋果的前瞻市盈率（P/E），即股價除以分析師對未來 12 個月 EPS 的共識預期，已高於其五年和十年的中位數 P/E 比率。即使蘋果按預期表現，股價在一年內不變，它仍然會相對昂貴。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/ffe3e00ceb14cedba401d4ad0777706b.png" alt="" original-src="https://media.ycharts.com/charts/ffe3e00ceb14cedba401d4ad0777706b.png"/></p>
<p>AAPL PE Ratio data by YCharts.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>AAPL 市盈率數據來源於 YCharts。</p>
</div><h2>Apple has to earn $4 trillion the hard way</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>蘋果必須艱難地賺取 4 萬億美元</h2>
</div><p>Apple is taking the right approach to integrating AI across its product suite. Apple's competitive advantages are its design, user-friendly products, seamless integration of software and hardware, and comprehensive product offerings for consumers and businesses. In other words, the everyday usefulness of Apple's AI features is the most important performance indicator.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>蘋果在其產品系列中整合 AI 的方式是正確的。蘋果的競爭優勢在於其設計、用户友好的產品、軟件和硬件的無縫集成，以及為消費者和企業提供的全面產品。換句話説，蘋果 AI 功能的日常實用性是最重要的績效指標。</p>
</div><p>Investors who agree with Apple's deliberate approach to AI may still want to consider buying the stock now, despite the premium valuation. However, given how pricey Apple is, its road to $4 trillion in market cap will likely need to come from earnings growth rather than valuation expansion.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>同意蘋果在 AI 方面謹慎做法的投資者，儘管估值較高，仍可能希望現在購買該股票。然而，考慮到蘋果的高價，其達到 4 萬億美元市值的道路可能需要依靠盈利增長，而非估值擴張。</p>
</div><p>With a market cap of $3.418 trillion at the time of this writing, Apple would have to jump 17% to cross $4 trillion. It could certainly grow earnings by that much in a year or two. And if investors like what the company is doing with AI, it could maintain its higher-than-historical valuation.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在撰寫本文時，蘋果的市值為 3.418 萬億美元，要跨越 4 萬億美元，它需要上漲 17%。在一兩年內，它當然可以實現如此規模的盈利增長。如果投資者喜歡公司在 AI 方面的舉措，它可能會維持高於歷史水平的估值。</p>
</div><p>All told, I expect Apple to cross $4 trillion in market cap by the end of 2026 -- but investors shouldn't expect the company to get there overnight -- even after adding $392 billion in market cap in just three days.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>總的來説，我預計蘋果將在 2026 年底之前跨越 4 萬億美元的市值，但投資者不應指望公司能在一夜之間實現這一目標——即使在短短三天內增加了 3920 億美元的市值。</p>
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After Gaining $394 Billion in Market Cap in 3 Days, Is Apple Stock on Its Way to Joining Nvidia and Microsoft in the $4 Trillion Club?

- 蘋果股價在三天內上漲 13%，市值達 3.404 萬億美元，增加 3940 億美元。  
- 蘋果宣佈 1000 億美元製造計劃，可能降低關税支出，提升短期前景。  
- 儘管產品收入增長，蘋果估值仍高，需依靠盈利增長實現 4 萬億美元市值。

在三天內市值增加 3940 億美元后，蘋果股票是否有望與英偉達和微軟一起進入 4 萬億美元俱樂部？