<p>最近市場對 <strong>亞馬遜</strong>(AMZN -0.00%) 並不太滿意。這家電子商務巨頭報告了相當出色的第二季度業績，但關税仍然對其利潤構成威脅，並且報告中的一些部分並不樂觀。因此，儘管基準 <strong>標準普爾 500</strong> 指數上漲超過 10%，亞馬遜的股票年初至今基本持平。</p>
<p>但令人失望的更新實際上只是整體上令人鼓舞的報告中的一小部分。讓我們回顧一下亞馬遜的現狀，並考慮它在五年後可能會處於何種位置。</p>
<h2>電子商務領域沒有競爭對手</h2>
<p>自三十年前開始運營以來，亞馬遜已成為美國電子商務的王者。沒有國內競爭對手能夠接近它。它通過改善交貨時間和更廣泛的產品種類不斷鞏固其領先地位，並通過機器人和無人機交付升級自己的履約鏈。它還與供應商和配送服務提供商建立了槓桿關係。這種組合為它提供了強大的護城河，使其保持在行業頂端。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MjcxNzgvYW1hem9uLWVsZWN0cmljLWRlbGl2ZXJ5LWJpa2UucG5nJnc9NzAw?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="700" height="466" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MjcxNzgvYW1hem9uLWVsZWN0cmljLWRlbGl2ZXJ5LWJpa2UucG5nJnc9NzAw"/></p>
<p>圖片來源：亞馬遜。</p>
<p>在第二季度報告中，市場擔心的一個問題是關税的不確定性，這將廣泛影響電子商務銷售。亞馬遜銷售的商品中有很大一部分來自中國供應商。這些進口税對公司的影響程度可能會在未來幾個月內得到澄清。</p>
<p>電子商務部門是其增長較慢的業務之一，但它提供的收入為其他領域的創新提供了資金。然而，第二季度的電子商務銷售強勁，同比增長 11%。管理層表示，到年底，它將把同日或次日交付服務擴展到另外 4000 個小型社區，這一擴展趨勢應該會持續下去。投資者可以預期，亞馬遜的電子商務銷售增長在未來五年將放緩，但它將加快交付速度並擴大護城河。</p>
<h2>仍然是雲計算領域的領導者</h2>
<p>報告中另一個讓投資者擔憂的方面是亞馬遜網絡服務（AWS）的銷售增長率。該部門的收入同比增長 17.5%，但遠低於 <strong>微軟</strong> Azure 的 34% 增長，後者是第二大雲基礎設施提供商。AWS 仍然比 Azure 大得多，因此其較慢的增長率不應被視為過於令人擔憂。不過，這仍然是一個需要關注的點。</p>
<p>目前，亞馬遜是全球最大的雲基礎設施提供商，市場份額為 30%，根據 Statista 的數據，幾乎與 Azure 和第三大谷歌雲的總和相當。亞馬遜首席執行官安迪·賈西（Andy Jassy）不斷告訴股東，85% 到 90% 的客户信息技術支出仍然用於本地系統，但在未來 10 到 15 年內，這一支出將轉向雲計算。亞馬遜正在投資雲開發，以保持其主導地位並從這一轉變中受益。</p>
<p>五年後，這一轉變應該開始成為現實，AWS 的增長率可能會加速，或者至少保持穩定。</p>
<h2>在人工智能領域佔據一席之地</h2>
<p>這將我們引向人工智能（AI），因為亞馬遜的生成式 AI 業務在 AWS 的框架下運營。亞馬遜僅在 2025 年就將投入超過 1000 億美元來開發其平台，併為每個人提供服務。它已經通過其標誌性的 AI 平台 Bedrock 提供了一系列服務，並專注於改善提供現成解決方案的平台頂層。</p>
<p>賈西設想了一個不久的將來，生成式 AI 將嵌入到每個新應用中，而這些工具的大部分開發將發生在雲端。這就是為什麼亞馬遜正在開發一個綜合平台，這可能會在未來五年內繼續保持目前三位數百分比增長的業務的高增長。</p>
<h2>成為全球銷售額最大的公司</h2>
<p>亞馬遜是全球第二大公司，僅次於零售巨頭 <strong>沃爾瑪</strong>。但它接近超越沃爾瑪；亞馬遜第二季度的銷售額為 1677 億美元，而沃爾瑪最近報告的銷售額為 1656 億美元。</p>
<p>如果銷售增長繼續保持兩位數的百分比，甚至滑落到高個位數的百分比，而其營業收入持續攀升，那麼很難想象亞馬遜的股票在五年後不會比今天高得多。隨着公司的增長，其增長率可能會下降，但隨着 AI 在其業務中扮演越來越重要的角色，它可能會保持增長率穩定。以下是兩種潛在情景：</p>
<table>
<thead>
<tr>
<th>指標</th>
<th>情景 1</th>
<th>情景 2</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>年複合增長率</td>
<td>9%</td>
<td>12%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>五年後的總年收入</td>
<td>1.03 萬億美元</td>
<td>1.18 萬億美元</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<p>如果其市銷率保持不變，這一增長將使亞馬遜的市值達到 3700 億到 4200 億美元，儘管其市銷率自然會根據市場情緒波動。不過，這些估計將意味着未來五年股價上漲 60% 到 85% 之間。這些數字並不驚人，僅代表眾多可能性中的一部分，但我認為它們提供了一個合理的預期，説明亞馬遜的股票在五年後可能會處於何種位置。</p>

亞馬遜

亞馬遜每日 2 倍做多 ETF - Direxion

<p>亞馬遜的股票表現今年一直平穩，儘管第二季度的業績強勁。該公司在美國電子商務領域仍然處於領先地位，並計劃提升配送服務。人們對關税以及 AWS 與微軟 Azure 等競爭對手相比增長放緩表示擔憂。然而，亞馬遜正在大力投資於人工智能和雲開發，這可能會維持其增長。隨着銷售額接近沃爾瑪，亞馬遜有可能在未來五年內成為按銷售額計算的最大公司，這取決於增長率和市場條件</p>

<p>The market hasn't been thrilled with <strong>Amazon</strong>(AMZN -0.00%) lately. The e-commerce giant reported pretty outstanding second-quarter results, but tariffs remain a threat to its profits, and a few parts of the report were less than positive. As a result, Amazon stock is now roughly flat year to date, even as the benchmark <strong>S&amp;P 500</strong> has climbed more than 10%.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>最近市場對 <strong>亞馬遜</strong>(AMZN -0.00%) 並不太滿意。這家電子商務巨頭報告了相當出色的第二季度業績，但關税仍然對其利潤構成威脅，並且報告中的一些部分並不樂觀。因此，儘管基準 <strong>標準普爾 500</strong> 指數上漲超過 10%，亞馬遜的股票年初至今基本持平。</p>
</div><p>But the disappointing updates were really a small part of what was largely an encouraging report. Let's review what's happening at Amazon and consider where it might be in five years.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但令人失望的更新實際上只是整體上令人鼓舞的報告中的一小部分。讓我們回顧一下亞馬遜的現狀，並考慮它在五年後可能會處於何種位置。</p>
</div><h2>No rivals in e-commerce</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>電子商務領域沒有競爭對手</h2>
</div><p>In the years since it began operating three decades ago, Amazon has become the king of U.S. e-commerce. No domestic competitor has been able to come close to it. It keeps building on its lead with improved delivery times and wider assortments of products, and it's upgrading its own fulfillment chain with robotics and drone deliveries. It also has leverage with suppliers and delivery providers. It's a combination that provides it with a robust moat that has kept it on top.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>自三十年前開始運營以來，亞馬遜已成為美國電子商務的王者。沒有國內競爭對手能夠接近它。它通過改善交貨時間和更廣泛的產品種類不斷鞏固其領先地位，並通過機器人和無人機交付升級自己的履約鏈。它還與供應商和配送服務提供商建立了槓桿關係。這種組合為它提供了強大的護城河，使其保持在行業頂端。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MjcxNzgvYW1hem9uLWVsZWN0cmljLWRlbGl2ZXJ5LWJpa2UucG5nJnc9NzAw" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F827178%2Famazon-electric-delivery-bike.png&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Amazon.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>圖片來源：亞馬遜。</p>
</div><p>One of the things that bothered the market in the second-quarter report was the uncertainty around tariffs, which will broadly impact e-commerce sales. A large portion of the goods sold on Amazon come from suppliers in China. How much of an issue those import taxes will be for the company is likely to be clarified over the coming months.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在第二季度報告中，市場擔心的一個問題是關税的不確定性，這將廣泛影響電子商務銷售。亞馬遜銷售的商品中有很大一部分來自中國供應商。這些進口税對公司的影響程度可能會在未來幾個月內得到澄清。</p>
</div><p>The e-commerce segment is one of its slower-growing businesses, but it provides income that fuels its innovation in other areas. However, e-commerce sales were strong in the second quarter, up 11% year over year. Management said that it will bring its same-day or next-day delivery services to another 4,000 smaller communities by the end of the year, and that trend of expansion should continue. Investors can expect that Amazon's e-commerce sales growth will slow down over the next five years, but that it will speed up deliveries and widen its moat.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>電子商務部門是其增長較慢的業務之一，但它提供的收入為其他領域的創新提供了資金。然而，第二季度的電子商務銷售強勁，同比增長 11%。管理層表示，到年底，它將把同日或次日交付服務擴展到另外 4000 個小型社區，這一擴展趨勢應該會持續下去。投資者可以預期，亞馬遜的電子商務銷售增長在未來五年將放緩，但它將加快交付速度並擴大護城河。</p>
</div><h2>Still the leader in the cloud</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>仍然是雲計算領域的領導者</h2>
</div><p>Something else that concerned investors in the report was the sales growth rate for Amazon Web Services (AWS). Revenues from the unit increased 17.5% year over year, but that was well below the 34% increase achieved by <strong>Microsoft</strong> Azure, the No. 2 cloud infrastructure player. AWS is still much bigger than Azure, so its slower growth rate shouldn't be viewed as too alarming. Still, this is something to keep an eye on.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>報告中另一個讓投資者擔憂的方面是亞馬遜網絡服務（AWS）的銷售增長率。該部門的收入同比增長 17.5%，但遠低於 <strong>微軟</strong> Azure 的 34% 增長，後者是第二大雲基礎設施提供商。AWS 仍然比 Azure 大得多，因此其較慢的增長率不應被視為過於令人擔憂。不過，這仍然是一個需要關注的點。</p>
</div><p>For now, Amazon is the largest cloud infrastructure provider in the world, with 30% of the market, according to Statista -- almost as much as Azure and No. 3 Google Cloud combined. Amazon CEO Andy Jassy constantly tells shareholders that 85% to 90% of client information technology spending is still for on-premises systems, but that that's going to shift over the next 10 to 15 years to the cloud. Amazon is investing in cloud development to keep its dominant position and benefit from that shift.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>目前，亞馬遜是全球最大的雲基礎設施提供商，市場份額為 30%，根據 Statista 的數據，幾乎與 Azure 和第三大谷歌雲的總和相當。亞馬遜首席執行官安迪·賈西（Andy Jassy）不斷告訴股東，85% 到 90% 的客户信息技術支出仍然用於本地系統，但在未來 10 到 15 年內，這一支出將轉向雲計算。亞馬遜正在投資雲開發，以保持其主導地位並從這一轉變中受益。</p>
</div><p>Five years from now, that should have started to become a reality, and the growth rate for AWS could accelerate, or at least hold steady.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>五年後，這一轉變應該開始成為現實，AWS 的增長率可能會加速，或者至少保持穩定。</p>
</div><h2>Staking a position in AI</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>在人工智能領域佔據一席之地</h2>
</div><p>That brings us to artificial intelligence (AI), since Amazon's generative AI business operates under the AWS umbrella. Amazon is spending more than $100 billion in 2025 alone to develop its platform and offer something for everyone. It already offers a slew of services through its signature AI platform, Bedrock, and it's focusing on improving the top layer of the platform that offers ready-to-use solutions.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這將我們引向人工智能（AI），因為亞馬遜的生成式 AI 業務在 AWS 的框架下運營。亞馬遜僅在 2025 年就將投入超過 1000 億美元來開發其平台，併為每個人提供服務。它已經通過其標誌性的 AI 平台 Bedrock 提供了一系列服務，並專注於改善提供現成解決方案的平台頂層。</p>
</div><p>Jassy envisions a not-too-distant future where generative AI is built into every new app, and most of the development of those tools is going to take place in the cloud. That's why Amazon is developing a comprehensive platform, and that could lead to continued high growth in what is currently a triple-digit percentage growth business over the next five years.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>賈西設想了一個不久的將來，生成式 AI 將嵌入到每個新應用中，而這些工具的大部分開發將發生在雲端。這就是為什麼亞馬遜正在開發一個綜合平台，這可能會在未來五年內繼續保持目前三位數百分比增長的業務的高增長。</p>
</div><h2>Becoming the biggest company in the world by sales</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>成為全球銷售額最大的公司</h2>
</div><p>Amazon is the second-largest company in the world by sales, behind retail giant <strong>Walmart</strong>. But it's close to overtaking it; Amazon's sales were $167.7 billion in the second quarter, while Walmart's were $165.6 billion in its most recently reported quarter.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>亞馬遜是全球第二大公司，僅次於零售巨頭 <strong>沃爾瑪</strong>。但它接近超越沃爾瑪；亞馬遜第二季度的銷售額為 1677 億美元，而沃爾瑪最近報告的銷售額為 1656 億美元。</p>
</div><p>If sales growth continues at double-digit percentage rates, or even slips to the high single-digit percentages, and its operating income keeps climbing, it's hard to imagine Amazon stock not trading much higher in five years than it is today. As the company grows, its growth rates may come down, but as AI plays a larger role in its business, it could keep growth rates steady. Here are two potential scenarios:</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如果銷售增長繼續保持兩位數的百分比，甚至滑落到高個位數的百分比，而其營業收入持續攀升，那麼很難想象亞馬遜的股票在五年後不會比今天高得多。隨着公司的增長，其增長率可能會下降，但隨着 AI 在其業務中扮演越來越重要的角色，它可能會保持增長率穩定。以下是兩種潛在情景：</p>
</div><table>
<thead>
<tr>
<th>Metric</th>
<th>Scenario 1</th>
<th>Scenario 2</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>Compound annual growth rate</td>
<td>9%</td>
<td>12%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Total annual revenue in 5 years</td>
<td>$1.03 trillion</td>
<td>$1.18 trillion</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<div class="lb-trans"><table>
<thead>
<tr>
<th>指標</th>
<th>情景 1</th>
<th>情景 2</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>年複合增長率</td>
<td>9%</td>
<td>12%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>五年後的總年收入</td>
<td>1.03 萬億美元</td>
<td>1.18 萬億美元</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</div><p>If its price-to-sales ratio remains constant, that growth would give Amazon a market cap of $3.7 to $4.2 billion, although its price-to-sales ratio will naturally fluctuate based on market sentiment. Those estimates, though, would equate to share price increases of somewhere between 60% and 85% over the next five years. Those are not earth-shattering numbers, and they only represent a couple of the many possibilities, but I think they offer a reasonable expectation of where Amazon stock could be in five years.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如果其市銷率保持不變，這一增長將使亞馬遜的市值達到 3700 億到 4200 億美元，儘管其市銷率自然會根據市場情緒波動。不過，這些估計將意味着未來五年股價上漲 60% 到 85% 之間。這些數字並不驚人，僅代表眾多可能性中的一部分，但我認為它們提供了一個合理的預期，説明亞馬遜的股票在五年後可能會處於何種位置。</p>
</div>

Where Will Amazon Stock Be in 5 Years?

- 亞馬遜第二季度業績強勁，但關税不確定性影響市場反應。  
- 電子商務銷售同比增長 11%，計劃擴展送貨服務。  
- 亞馬遜雲服務仍為市場領導者，未來五年有望加速增長。

五年後亞馬遜的股票會達到什麼水平？