<p>截至 8 月 12 日收盤，數據挖掘明星 <strong>Palantir Technologies</strong>（PLTR -2.14%）的股價年初至今飆升了 147%——連續兩年成為 <strong>標準普爾 500 指數</strong> 中表現最佳的股票。</p>
<p>顯而易見的討論點是，Palantir 在人工智能（AI）革命期間經歷了巨大的增長。懷疑者指出，Palantir 的高估值是看跌論點的基石，因為該股票的交易水平接近於互聯網泡沫時期的水平。雖然這確實是事實，但這些擔憂並沒有阻止該股屢次創下新高。</p>
<p>我認為圍繞 Palantir 股票還有一個更微妙的細節，鮮有討論。如果歷史可以作為指導，它可能為一次史詩般的逆轉鋪平道路。</p>
<p>現在是賣出 Palantir 股票的時候嗎？繼續閲讀以瞭解更多。</p>
<h2>重新定義 “昂貴” 的估值</h2>
<p>在 1990 年代末，互聯網公司通常通過基於用户參與度的非財務指標來衡量。像 <strong>亞馬遜</strong>、<strong>思科</strong>、<strong>微軟</strong>、<strong>谷歌</strong> 和雅虎這樣的企業是根據瀏覽量和點擊量而非銷售和利潤來估值的。在互聯網狂熱的巔峯期，這些互聯網先驅的市銷率（P/S）倍數在 30 到 40 之間——當時被認為是不可持續的高水平。</p>
<p>然而，Palantir 完全重新定義了下一代科技企業的估值。截至 8 月 12 日，Palantir 的市值接近 4440 億美元——超過了 <strong>Salesforce</strong>、<strong>SAP</strong> 和 <strong>Adobe</strong>，這些公司都是更成熟、多元化的企業。更引人注目的是，Palantir 的 P/S 為 137，完全處於自己的天際線——與其軟件即服務（SaaS）同行相比，完全不在同一維度。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/8e5865234594026c778181460dce3662.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/8e5865234594026c778181460dce3662.png"/></p>
<p>PLTR 市銷率數據來源於 YCharts</p>
<p>一些人認為，傳統的估值方法如市銷率或收益倍數並不能完全捕捉 Palantir 的真實價值或其全部潛力。相反，他們敦促投資者關注行業特定和財務工程化的指標，如 40 法則，以瞭解 Palantir 股票到底有多 “便宜”。</p>
<p>我認為這個論點是有缺陷的。有一個更具説明性的指標——幾乎沒有人談論——讓我覺得 Palantir 股票可能正與歷史發生碰撞。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MjkwMjUvZ2V0dHlpbWFnZXMtMTE2MDk1NzQ4My5qcGcmdz03MDA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MjkwMjUvZ2V0dHlpbWFnZXMtMTE2MDk1NzQ4My5qcGcmdz03MDA"/></p>
<p>圖片來源：Getty Images。</p>
<h2>“聰明的錢” 在試圖告訴我們什麼嗎？</h2>
<p>下圖跟蹤了自 2020 年底首次公開募股（IPO）以來，機構投資者在 Palantir 股票上的買入活動。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/3fe71dc18da92b76bdec1224a4b6e127.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/3fe71dc18da92b76bdec1224a4b6e127.png"/></p>
<p>PLTR 機構投資者購買的股票數據來源於 YCharts</p>
<p>最初，在 2021 年初出現了一波 “聰明的錢” 買入，但在那年下半年遭遇了大量拋售。Palantir 的機構持股在公司幾年前進入 AI 領域後再次上升。我認為正是這種動態讓散户投資者錯過了更大的圖景，陷入了幻影之中。</p>
<p>正如上圖所示，Palantir 股票的機構買入和賣出之間正在發生收斂。當淨需求收緊——意味着買入不再明顯高於賣出——時，施加的下行壓力會更小，從而引發股價的急劇下跌。我認為上圖所示的動態是 Palantir 股票的一個拐點。</p>
<p>此外，銀行、財富管理公司、共同基金和對沖基金都有不同的優先事項。這些機構中的許多被要求持有大盤股以進行基準比較，而不是因為他們認為該股票被低估，或者因為他們對股票會在當前異常波動中上漲抱有某種 “堅定信念”。當一隻股票相對於整體投資組合的權重異常高時，機構投資者通常會削減其持倉。這被稱為投資組合再平衡。</p>
<blockquote>
<p>Ron Baron 談特斯拉</p>
<p>&#34;我是最後一個進的，我會是最後一個出的。我不會在為客户賣出所有股票之前，個人賣出一股；我個人沒有賣出一股&#34; pic.twitter.com/EBT1esY14A</p>
<p>-- 特斯拉硅谷車主（@teslaownersSV）2025 年 3 月 12 日</p>
</blockquote>
<p>這種情況可以完美地通過上面的視頻片段來解釋，其中共同基金億萬富翁 Ron Baron 描述了他在即使是他最有信心的投資中，如 <strong>特斯拉</strong>，也要時不時獲利的受託責任。如果一隻股票變得過於膨脹，機構將利用這種市場流動性作為機制，以溢價將其股票出售給散户。這種動態更通俗地被稱為讓散户 “持有包袱”，當炒作敍事消退時。</p>
<p>雖然我不能確定 Palantir 股票的未來走向，但我認為基金投資者將會施壓投資組合經理削減對 Palantir 的持倉，並從中獲利，就像 Baron 所經歷的那樣。我認為這種壓力將根植於對 Palantir 估值重置的預期，因為相對於同行，其定位過於火熱。</p>
<h2>歷史會重演嗎？</h2>
<p>雖然歷史並不總是完美的預測工具，但在這種情況下，我認為它是一個強有力的晴雨表。雖然幾乎不可能選擇賣出股票的完美時機，但我認為有一些引人注目的——且被忽視的——細節表明，Palantir 股票可能會比許多看漲者預期的更早地從當前價格點下跌。</p>

PLTR

<p>Palantir Technologies 的股票今年迄今已上漲 147%，成為標準普爾 500 指數中表現最佳的股票。然而，關於其高估值的擔憂，市銷率達到 137，令人聯想到互聯網泡沫時代。機構買賣動態暗示潛在的反轉，因為淨需求正在收緊。如果股票變得過於膨脹，機構投資者可能會削減其持倉，這將使散户投資者處於脆弱的境地。文章質疑在這些市場動態下，現在是否是出售 Palantir 股票的時機</p>

<p>As of the closing bell on Aug. 12, shares of data mining darling <strong>Palantir Technologies</strong>(PLTR -2.14%) have skyrocketed by 147% year to date -- making it the top-performing stock in the <strong>S&amp;P 500</strong> for two years running.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>截至 8 月 12 日收盤，數據挖掘明星 <strong>Palantir Technologies</strong>（PLTR -2.14%）的股價年初至今飆升了 147%——連續兩年成為 <strong>標準普爾 500 指數</strong> 中表現最佳的股票。</p>
</div><p>The obvious talking point here is that Palantir has been on a monster run throughout the course of the artificial intelligence (AI) revolution. Skeptics point to Palantir's lofty valuation as the cornerstone of the bear argument, as the stock trades at levels encroaching on dot-com-era bubble territory. While that's true, such concerns haven't stopped the stock from repeatedly notching new highs.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>顯而易見的討論點是，Palantir 在人工智能（AI）革命期間經歷了巨大的增長。懷疑者指出，Palantir 的高估值是看跌論點的基石，因為該股票的交易水平接近於互聯網泡沫時期的水平。雖然這確實是事實，但這些擔憂並沒有阻止該股屢次創下新高。</p>
</div><p>I think there is a far subtler detail surrounding Palantir stock that rarely gets discussed. If history is any guide, it could set the stage for an epic reversal.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>我認為圍繞 Palantir 股票還有一個更微妙的細節，鮮有討論。如果歷史可以作為指導，它可能為一次史詩般的逆轉鋪平道路。</p>
</div><p>Is now the time to sell Palantir stock? Read on to find out.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>現在是賣出 Palantir 股票的時候嗎？繼續閲讀以瞭解更多。</p>
</div><h2>Valuation that redefines what it means to be &#34;expensive&#34;</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>重新定義 “昂貴” 的估值</h2>
</div><p>During the late 1990s, internet companies were often measured by non-financial metrics based on user engagement. Businesses such as <strong>Amazon</strong>, <strong>Cisco</strong>, <strong>Microsoft</strong>, <strong>Alphabet</strong>, and Yahoo! were valued based on eyeballs and clicks rather than sales and profits. At the peak of dot-com euphoria, many of these internet pioneers traded at price-to-sales (P/S) multiples between 30 and 40 -- considered unsustainably high at the time.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在 1990 年代末，互聯網公司通常通過基於用户參與度的非財務指標來衡量。像 <strong>亞馬遜</strong>、<strong>思科</strong>、<strong>微軟</strong>、<strong>谷歌</strong> 和雅虎這樣的企業是根據瀏覽量和點擊量而非銷售和利潤來估值的。在互聯網狂熱的巔峯期，這些互聯網先驅的市銷率（P/S）倍數在 30 到 40 之間——當時被認為是不可持續的高水平。</p>
</div><p>Palantir has completely redefined how next-generation technology businesses are valued, though. As of Aug. 12, Palantir boasts a market cap of nearly $444 billion -- larger than <strong>Salesforce</strong>, <strong>SAP</strong>, and <strong>Adobe</strong>, which are far more mature, diversified businesses. Perhaps even more striking is that Palantir's P/S of 137 exists in its own stratosphere -- completely outside the dimensions of its software-as-a-service (SaaS) peers.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，Palantir 完全重新定義了下一代科技企業的估值。截至 8 月 12 日，Palantir 的市值接近 4440 億美元——超過了 <strong>Salesforce</strong>、<strong>SAP</strong> 和 <strong>Adobe</strong>，這些公司都是更成熟、多元化的企業。更引人注目的是，Palantir 的 P/S 為 137，完全處於自己的天際線——與其軟件即服務（SaaS）同行相比，完全不在同一維度。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/8e5865234594026c778181460dce3662.png" alt="" original-src="https://media.ycharts.com/charts/8e5865234594026c778181460dce3662.png"/></p>
<p>PLTR PS Ratio data by YCharts</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>PLTR 市銷率數據來源於 YCharts</p>
</div><p>Some argue that traditional valuation methodologies such as P/S or earnings multiples don't fully capture Palantir's true value or its full potential. Instead, they urge investors to focus on industry-specific and financially engineered metrics such as the Rule of 40 to see just how &#34;cheap&#34; Palantir stock really is.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>一些人認為，傳統的估值方法如市銷率或收益倍數並不能完全捕捉 Palantir 的真實價值或其全部潛力。相反，他們敦促投資者關注行業特定和財務工程化的指標，如 40 法則，以瞭解 Palantir 股票到底有多 “便宜”。</p>
</div><p>I think this argument is flawed. There's a more telling metric -- and one that almost nobody talks about -- that makes me think Palantir stock could be on a collision course with history.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>我認為這個論點是有缺陷的。有一個更具説明性的指標——幾乎沒有人談論——讓我覺得 Palantir 股票可能正與歷史發生碰撞。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MjkwMjUvZ2V0dHlpbWFnZXMtMTE2MDk1NzQ4My5qcGcmdz03MDA" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F829025%2Fgettyimages-1160957483.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>圖片來源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><h2>Is &#34;smart money&#34; trying to tell us something?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>“聰明的錢” 在試圖告訴我們什麼嗎？</h2>
</div><p>The chart below tracks buying activity in Palantir stock across institutional investors since its initial public offering (IPO) in late 2020.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>下圖跟蹤了自 2020 年底首次公開募股（IPO）以來，機構投資者在 Palantir 股票上的買入活動。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/3fe71dc18da92b76bdec1224a4b6e127.png" alt="" original-src="https://media.ycharts.com/charts/3fe71dc18da92b76bdec1224a4b6e127.png"/></p>
<p>PLTR Shares Bought By Institutional Investors data by YCharts</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>PLTR 機構投資者購買的股票數據來源於 YCharts</p>
</div><p>Initially, there was a wave of &#34;smart money&#34; buying during early 2021, which was met with substantial selling during the latter half of that year. Palantir's institutional ownership picked up again following the company's splash into the AI realm a couple of years ago. It's this dynamic where I think the retail investing crowd is missing the bigger picture and buying into a mirage.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>最初，在 2021 年初出現了一波 “聰明的錢” 買入，但在那年下半年遭遇了大量拋售。Palantir 的機構持股在公司幾年前進入 AI 領域後再次上升。我認為正是這種動態讓散户投資者錯過了更大的圖景，陷入了幻影之中。</p>
</div><p>As the chart above illustrates, there is a convergence happening between the institutional buying and selling in Palantir stock. When net demand tightens -- meaning that buying is no longer materially higher than selling -- it takes less downside pressure to inspire a precipitous drop in share price. I see the dynamics illustrated in the chart above as an inflection point for Palantir stock.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>正如上圖所示，Palantir 股票的機構買入和賣出之間正在發生收斂。當淨需求收緊——意味着買入不再明顯高於賣出——時，施加的下行壓力會更小，從而引發股價的急劇下跌。我認為上圖所示的動態是 Palantir 股票的一個拐點。</p>
</div><p>In addition, banks, wealth management firms, mutual funds, and hedge funds all have different priorities. Many of these institutions are required to hold large-cap stocks for benchmarking purposes, not because they think the stock is undervalued or because they carry some &#34;diamond hands&#34; conviction that shares are going higher despite abnormal volatility in the present. When a stock becomes an abnormally high weight relative to the overall portfolio, institutional investors often trim their exposure. This is known as portfolio rebalancing.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>此外，銀行、財富管理公司、共同基金和對沖基金都有不同的優先事項。這些機構中的許多被要求持有大盤股以進行基準比較，而不是因為他們認為該股票被低估，或者因為他們對股票會在當前異常波動中上漲抱有某種 “堅定信念”。當一隻股票相對於整體投資組合的權重異常高時，機構投資者通常會削減其持倉。這被稱為投資組合再平衡。</p>
</div><blockquote>
<p>Ron Baron on Tesla</p>
<p>&#34;I'm the last in, I'll be the last out. I won't sell a single share personally until I sell all the shares for clients; I have not sold a single share personally&#34; pic.twitter.com/EBT1esY14A</p>
<p>-- Tesla Owners Silicon Valley (@teslaownersSV) March 12, 2025</p>
</blockquote>
<div class="lb-trans"><blockquote>
<p>Ron Baron 談特斯拉</p>
<p>&#34;我是最後一個進的，我會是最後一個出的。我不會在為客户賣出所有股票之前，個人賣出一股；我個人沒有賣出一股&#34; pic.twitter.com/EBT1esY14A</p>
<p>-- 特斯拉硅谷車主（@teslaownersSV）2025 年 3 月 12 日</p>
</blockquote>
</div><p>This scenario can be perfectly explained in the video clip above in which mutual fund billionaire Ron Baron describes his fiduciary responsibility to take profits from time to time in even his highest-conviction positions, such as <strong>Tesla</strong>. If a stock becomes overinflated, institutions will use this market liquidity as a mechanism to sell their shares to retail at a premium. This dynamic is more colloquially referred to leaving retail &#34;holding the bag&#34; when the hype narrative fades.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這種情況可以完美地通過上面的視頻片段來解釋，其中共同基金億萬富翁 Ron Baron 描述了他在即使是他最有信心的投資中，如 <strong>特斯拉</strong>，也要時不時獲利的受託責任。如果一隻股票變得過於膨脹，機構將利用這種市場流動性作為機制，以溢價將其股票出售給散户。這種動態更通俗地被稱為讓散户 “持有包袱”，當炒作敍事消退時。</p>
</div><p>While I can't say for certain where Palantir stock is headed, my thought is that fund investors are going to pressure portfolio managers to trim exposure to Palantir and take some money off the table, much like what Baron experienced. I think the pressure will be rooted in the anticipation of a valuation reset for Palantir given its frothy positioning relative to peers.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>雖然我不能確定 Palantir 股票的未來走向，但我認為基金投資者將會施壓投資組合經理削減對 Palantir 的持倉，並從中獲利，就像 Baron 所經歷的那樣。我認為這種壓力將根植於對 Palantir 估值重置的預期，因為相對於同行，其定位過於火熱。</p>
</div><h2>Will history repeat itself?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>歷史會重演嗎？</h2>
</div><p>Although history is not always a perfect predictor, I think it's a strong barometer in this case. While it's virtually impossible to pick the perfect time to sell a stock, I think there are some compelling -- and overlooked -- details that suggest Palantir stock could be headed lower from current price points sooner than many bulls expect.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>雖然歷史並不總是完美的預測工具，但在這種情況下，我認為它是一個強有力的晴雨表。雖然幾乎不可能選擇賣出股票的完美時機，但我認為有一些引人注目的——且被忽視的——細節表明，Palantir 股票可能會比許多看漲者預期的更早地從當前價格點下跌。</p>
</div>

History Shows That Palantir Stock's Monster Run Is Speeding Toward an Epic Crash -- and It All Might Come Down to 1 Detail That No One Is Talking About

- Palantir Technologies 股價年初至今上漲 147%，成為 S&P 500 的最佳表現股票。  
- 機構投資者的買賣動態顯示出淨需求收緊，可能導致股價大幅下跌。  
- 歷史經驗表明，當前高估值可能促使投資者減持 Palantir 股票。

歷史表明，Palantir 股票的迅猛上漲正在加速走向一場史詩般的崩盤——而這一切可能都與一個無人提及的細節有關