<p><strong>蘋果</strong>(AAPL -0.55%) 股票一直是市場上最好的投資之一，幾十年來超越了市場。想象一下，如果你在 20 年前投資了 10,000 美元在蘋果股票上，而不是在 <strong>標準普爾 500 指數</strong> 上，今天你會有多少錢；隨着時間的推移，這個差距會越來越大。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/64a530baec02b05070846a6d0f24c734.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="720" height="456" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/64a530baec02b05070846a6d0f24c734.png"/></p>
<p>AAPL 總回報水平數據來自 YCharts</p>
<p>在過去五年中，它也超越了市場，但僅僅是微弱的優勢。這在很大程度上是由於它今年的表現非常糟糕。</p>
<p>然而，在過去，蘋果股票曾多次暴跌，有時甚至在低迷狀態下持續數年，直到大幅反彈。例如，它在 2007 年達到高點，隨後在抵押貸款危機後直到 2009 年才再次達到該高點。讓我們看看蘋果目前的情況以及五年後可能會在哪裏。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MjcxNzkvYS1wZXJzb24taG9sZGluZy1hLWNyZWRpdC1jYXJkLWFuZC1hLW1vYmlsZS1waG9uZS5qcGcmdz03MDA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="700" height="452" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MjcxNzkvYS1wZXJzb24taG9sZGluZy1hLWNyZWRpdC1jYXJkLWFuZC1hLW1vYmlsZS1waG9uZS5qcGcmdz03MDA"/></p>
<p>圖片來源：Getty Images。</p>
<h2>關税、iPhone 和人工智能</h2>
<p>目前有幾個因素共同對蘋果股票產生負面影響，通常在出現劇烈變化時會出現這些因素。它們主要集中在關税不確定性、iPhone 銷售和人工智能（AI）上。</p>
<h3>關税不確定性對其造成壓力</h3>
<p>市場一直擔心蘋果將如何受到關税的影響，因為它依賴於在中國製造產品。雖然它已經在很大程度上將供應鏈多元化到印度，但關税也影響到了那裏，並似乎將其逼入了一個角落，最近宣佈將在美國投資 6000 億美元用於製造。</p>
<p>關税問題正在穩定，五年後應該只是一個小插曲。然而，隨着其供應鏈的變化，可能會產生大規模的後續影響。更多的國內運營可能會導致許多今天無法預見的不同方向，例如擁有更高成本的勞動力，但關税率較低。</p>
<h3>iPhone 佔據了銷售的大部分</h3>
<p>還有人擔心它的產品種類太少，這意味着其中任何一個產品的變化都可能對業務產生重大影響。iPhone 佔據了近一半的總銷售額，隨着人工智能改變人們與技術的互動方式，iPhone 業務面臨來自競爭對手在新領域創新的脆弱性。</p>
<p>蘋果仍然擁有一個緊密的生態系統，用户對其產品非常忠誠，因此這並不是短期內的擔憂。但在五年內，市場格局可能會大不相同，其他類型的設備可能會取代智能手機來執行許多操作。我認為即使在五年內，iPhone 也不會過時，但蘋果需要對其主要產品進行一些重大改動，以保持客户購買新產品的意願。</p>
<h3>人工智能進展緩慢</h3>
<p>首席執行官蒂姆·庫克在財政第三季度的財報電話會議上對蘋果智能的前景表示樂觀（截至 6 月 28 日的期間），但到目前為止，這並沒有給投資者留下深刻印象，他們覺得蘋果在競爭中落後。</p>
<p>然而，正如庫克所指出的那樣，“在我們所做的一切中，我們都受到變革性創新的驅動，提供我們所創造的最卓越的產品和服務，我們對未來充滿期待。” 我認為這總結了蘋果對其消費品業務的態度。它並不像 <strong>亞馬遜</strong> 那樣，試圖為每個人提供一切。許多用户仍然記得其 “與眾不同” 的廣告活動，這仍然定義了其模式，投資者不應期望它以與其他公司相同的方式行事。如果這樣做，那就不是蘋果了。</p>
<h2>情況可能會好轉，但程度如何？</h2>
<p>也就是説，蘋果現在是全球市值第三大的公司，是否能在這個規模上繼續超越市場是一個問題。它仍然提供價值，並可能繼續增長，但其增長是有限的。例如，如果我們假設它在未來五年內的收入年複合增長率為 8%，這是考慮到其近期表現的一個寬鬆估計，並假設市銷率保持不變，收入和股票價格將增加 47%。這只是眾多可能性中的一種，新的產品或人工智能的進展可能會推動收入增長。</p>
<p>考慮到其近期的下跌，我預計它會收復損失，並很快變得更大更好。但在未來五年內，我不指望蘋果能像過去那樣快速增長。</p>

蘋果

2 倍做多 AAPL ETF - GraniteShares

蘋果每日 1 倍做空 ETF - Direxion

蘋果每日 2 倍做多 ETF - Direxion

AAPX

AAPY

APLY

<p>蘋果股票歷史上一直是一個強勁的投資，幾十年來表現優於市場。然而，由於關税不確定性、對 iPhone 銷售的依賴以及人工智能進展緩慢，近期表現平平。儘管蘋果正在多元化其供應鏈，並在消費者忠誠度方面保持領先，但在創新方面面臨挑戰。分析師預測未來五年可能實現 47% 的收入增長，但警告稱增長可能無法與過去的表現相匹配。總體而言，預計蘋果將從近期的損失中恢復，但增長速度可能不如以前那麼快</p>

<p><strong>Apple</strong>(AAPL -0.55%) stock has been one of the best-ever investments on the market, crushing the market over several decades. Consider how much money you'd have today if you'd invested $10,000 in Apple stock 20 years ago vs. in the <strong>S&amp;P 500</strong>; the difference gets wider as you go back in time.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>蘋果</strong>(AAPL -0.55%) 股票一直是市場上最好的投資之一，幾十年來超越了市場。想象一下，如果你在 20 年前投資了 10,000 美元在蘋果股票上，而不是在 <strong>標準普爾 500 指數</strong> 上，今天你會有多少錢；隨着時間的推移，這個差距會越來越大。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/64a530baec02b05070846a6d0f24c734.png" alt="" original-src="https://media.ycharts.com/charts/64a530baec02b05070846a6d0f24c734.png"/></p>
<p>AAPL Total Return Level data by YCharts</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>AAPL 總回報水平數據來自 YCharts</p>
</div><p>It has outperformed the market over the past five years, too, but only by a hair's breadth. That's largely due to its performance this year, which has been dismal.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在過去五年中，它也超越了市場，但僅僅是微弱的優勢。這在很大程度上是由於它今年的表現非常糟糕。</p>
</div><p>However, there have been many times in the past when Apple stock plunged, and there were times it remained low even for several years before rebounding in a big way. For example, it hit a high in 2007 before the mortgage crisis and didn't reach it again until 2009. Let's see what's happening at Apple and where it might be in five years.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，在過去，蘋果股票曾多次暴跌，有時甚至在低迷狀態下持續數年，直到大幅反彈。例如，它在 2007 年達到高點，隨後在抵押貸款危機後直到 2009 年才再次達到該高點。讓我們看看蘋果目前的情況以及五年後可能會在哪裏。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MjcxNzkvYS1wZXJzb24taG9sZGluZy1hLWNyZWRpdC1jYXJkLWFuZC1hLW1vYmlsZS1waG9uZS5qcGcmdz03MDA" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F827179%2Fa-person-holding-a-credit-card-and-a-mobile-phone.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>圖片來源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><h2>Tariffs, iPhones, and AI</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>關税、iPhone 和人工智能</h2>
</div><p>There are several factors working together against Apple stock these days, as there usually are when there's a drastic change from the norm. They are mostly concentrated in tariff uncertainty, iPhone sales, and artificial intelligence (AI).</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>目前有幾個因素共同對蘋果股票產生負面影響，通常在出現劇烈變化時會出現這些因素。它們主要集中在關税不確定性、iPhone 銷售和人工智能（AI）上。</p>
</div><h3>Tariff uncertainty is weighing on it</h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3>關税不確定性對其造成壓力</h3>
</div><p>The market has been worried about how Apple will be impacted by tariffs, considering its reliance on getting its products made in China. It has already diversified its supply chain to include India to a large degree, but tariffs went there, too, and seem to have chased it into a corner where it recently announced that it would invest $600 billion in manufacturing in the U.S.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>市場一直擔心蘋果將如何受到關税的影響，因為它依賴於在中國製造產品。雖然它已經在很大程度上將供應鏈多元化到印度，但關税也影響到了那裏，並似乎將其逼入了一個角落，最近宣佈將在美國投資 6000 億美元用於製造。</p>
</div><p>The tariff issue is stabilizing, and should be a blip five years from now. However, there could be large-scale aftereffects as it changes its supply chain. Having more operations domestically could lead it in many different directions that are unforeseeable today, such as having a more expensive workforce but a lower tariff rate.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>關税問題正在穩定，五年後應該只是一個小插曲。然而，隨着其供應鏈的變化，可能會產生大規模的後續影響。更多的國內運營可能會導致許多今天無法預見的不同方向，例如擁有更高成本的勞動力，但關税率較低。</p>
</div><h3>iPhones account for a large part of sales</h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3>iPhone 佔據了銷售的大部分</h3>
</div><p>There's also been concern that it has too few products, which means that any change in one of them could impact the business in a big way. iPhones account for nearly half of total sales, and as artificial intelligence changes how people engage with technology, the iPhone business is vulnerable to innovation in new areas from competitors.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>還有人擔心它的產品種類太少，這意味着其中任何一個產品的變化都可能對業務產生重大影響。iPhone 佔據了近一半的總銷售額，隨着人工智能改變人們與技術的互動方式，iPhone 業務面臨來自競爭對手在新領域創新的脆弱性。</p>
</div><p>Apple still has a tight ecosystem with users who are loyal to its products, so it's not a near-term worry. But in five years, the landscape could look a lot different, with other kinds of devices taking the place of smartphones for many actions. I don't see iPhones becoming obsolete even in five years, but Apple would need to make some major changes to its premier products to keep customers buying new ones.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>蘋果仍然擁有一個緊密的生態系統，用户對其產品非常忠誠，因此這並不是短期內的擔憂。但在五年內，市場格局可能會大不相同，其他類型的設備可能會取代智能手機來執行許多操作。我認為即使在五年內，iPhone 也不會過時，但蘋果需要對其主要產品進行一些重大改動，以保持客户購買新產品的意願。</p>
</div><h3>Slow progress in AI</h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3>人工智能進展緩慢</h3>
</div><p>CEO Tim Cook gave an upbeat outlook about Apple Intelligence on the fiscal third-quarter earnings call (for the period ended June 28), but so far, it hasn't suitably impressed investors, who feel it's falling behind the competition.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>首席執行官蒂姆·庫克在財政第三季度的財報電話會議上對蘋果智能的前景表示樂觀（截至 6 月 28 日的期間），但到目前為止，這並沒有給投資者留下深刻印象，他們覺得蘋果在競爭中落後。</p>
</div><p>However, as Cook noted, &#34;In everything we do, we're driven by transformative innovation, delivering the most exceptional products and services we've ever created, and we're especially excited about what's ahead.&#34; I think that sums up Apple's approach to its consumer goods business. It's not, for example, like <strong>Amazon</strong>, which tries to be everything to everyone. Many users still remember its &#34;Think Different&#34; campaign, which still defines its model, and investors shouldn't expect it to do things the same way as other companies. It wouldn't be Apple if it did.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，正如庫克所指出的那樣，“在我們所做的一切中，我們都受到變革性創新的驅動，提供我們所創造的最卓越的產品和服務，我們對未來充滿期待。” 我認為這總結了蘋果對其消費品業務的態度。它並不像 <strong>亞馬遜</strong> 那樣，試圖為每個人提供一切。許多用户仍然記得其 “與眾不同” 的廣告活動，這仍然定義了其模式，投資者不應期望它以與其他公司相同的方式行事。如果這樣做，那就不是蘋果了。</p>
</div><h2>Things could get better, but how much?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>情況可能會好轉，但程度如何？</h2>
</div><p>That said, Apple is now the third-largest company in the world by market cap, and it's questionable whether it can continue beating the market at this size. It still offers value and is likely to keep growing, but there's a cap on how much it can gain. For example, if we surmise it can grow its revenue at a compound annual growth rate of 8% over the next five years, which is a generous estimate considering its recent performance, and assume the price-to-sales ratio remains constant, revenue and the stock price would increase 47%. That's one possibility of many, and a new product or advances in AI could boost revenue growth.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>也就是説，蘋果現在是全球市值第三大的公司，是否能在這個規模上繼續超越市場是一個問題。它仍然提供價值，並可能繼續增長，但其增長是有限的。例如，如果我們假設它在未來五年內的收入年複合增長率為 8%，這是考慮到其近期表現的一個寬鬆估計，並假設市銷率保持不變，收入和股票價格將增加 47%。這只是眾多可能性中的一種，新的產品或人工智能的進展可能會推動收入增長。</p>
</div><p>Considering its recent drop, I would expect it to recoup the loss and go on to be bigger and better sooner rather than later. But over the next five years, I wouldn't count on Apple gaining as quickly as it has in the past.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>考慮到其近期的下跌，我預計它會收復損失，並很快變得更大更好。但在未來五年內，我不指望蘋果能像過去那樣快速增長。</p>
</div>

Where Will Apple Stock Be in 5 Years?

- 蘋果股票在過去幾十年中表現優異，超越市場。  
- 目前面臨關税不確定性、iPhone 銷售和人工智能等挑戰。  
- 未來五年，蘋果需進行重大產品調整以維持增長。  

五年後蘋果的股票會達到什麼水平？