<p><strong>Upstart</strong>(UPST 0.45%) 最近發佈了第二季度的財報，超出了分析師對收入和利潤的預期。不僅如此，Upstart 還意外實現了盈利，提高了指導預期，報告中的幾乎所有增長指標都表現強勁。</p>
<p>在財報發佈後股價下跌 20% 後，Upstart 股票現在值得購買嗎？讓我們仔細看看這家貸款科技公司最近的表現，為什麼股價在財報發佈後下跌，以及未來可能存在的巨大上行潛力。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MjkyODQvc3RvY2tzLWZhbGxpbmctMjAyMi5qcGcmdz03MDA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MjkyODQvc3RvY2tzLWZhbGxpbmctMjAyMi5qcGcmdz03MDA"/></p>
<p>圖片來源：Getty Images。</p>
<h2>數據看起來 <em>非常</em> 強勁</h2>
<p>正如所提到的，Upstart 在第二季度的表現遠超預期。貸款發放量同比增長 154%，達到 28 億美元，儘管面臨嚴峻的貸款環境。收入翻了一番，儘管 Upstart 自身預計第二季度會有小幅虧損，但該公司卻給投資者帶來了多年來首次實現 GAAP（公認會計原則）底線盈利的驚喜。</p>
<h2>為什麼 Upstart 的股票下跌？</h2>
<p>需要明確的是，Upstart 的業務看起來 <em>強勁</em>。但這並不意味着股價下跌是沒有原因的。有幾個指標可能導致了這一變動：</p>
<ul>
<li>Upstart 的轉化率從 19.1% 增加到 23.9%。這是指在 Upstart 上查詢利率的人中最終獲得貸款的比例。這可能表明 Upstart 正在顯著放寬貸款標準以推動增長。</li>
<li>Upstart 在資產負債表上持有超過 10 億美元的貸款，比第一季度末增加了約 25%。其中大部分是用於研究和開發（R&amp;D），但簡單來説，資產負債表上的貸款越多，風險就越大。</li>
</ul>
<h2>從這裏看有巨大的潛力</h2>
<p>Upstart 的核心業務是個人貸款，即使年化貸款量超過 100 億美元，它在所有個人貸款量中仍然只佔單一數字的市場份額。因此，它的核心業務仍然有很大的增長空間。</p>
<p>如果利率開始下降，這一點尤其成立。美國人有 1.2 萬億美元的信用卡債務，隨着通過個人貸款再融資變得更加實惠，這可能是一個巨大的機會。</p>
<p>然而，Upstart 的兩個新貸款領域——汽車貸款和住房貸款——最具前景。首先，汽車貸款市場的規模大約是個人貸款市場的 5 倍，而 Upstart 的汽車貸款量在過去一年中增長了六倍。</p>
<p>在住房貸款方面（這是兩個領域中較新的），Upstart 的住房貸款發放量環比增長了 67%。這是一個巨大的機會——尤其是考慮到 Upstart 的重點：房屋淨值信貸額度（HELOCs）。美國的房主擁有 35 萬億美元的房屋淨值，創歷史新高，隨着利率下降，提取這些淨值的需求非常旺盛。</p>
<p>儘管增長令人印象深刻，但汽車和住房貸款的發放量合計佔 Upstart 業務的不到 7%。但如果當前的勢頭持續，這種情況不會持續太久。</p>
<h2>你現在應該購買 Upstart 股票嗎？</h2>
<p>即使在這次下跌之後，Upstart 也不是一隻便宜的股票。它沒有建立盈利記錄，貸款環境仍然不佳，經濟不確定性很大。在過去 12 個月的銷售額超過 9 倍的情況下，Upstart 仍然以溢價交易。</p>
<p>然而，這是一份出色的財報。Upstart 不僅在收入和利潤上超出了預期，還提高了指導預期，並在其新領域快速增長。我不願意稱 Upstart 為 “便宜貨”，即使情況良好，它在可預見的未來可能仍會相當波動。因此，在決定投資之前，請記住這一點。</p>

UPST

<p>Upstart (UPST) 發佈了強勁的第二季度財報，超出了分析師的預期，意外實現盈利並提高了指引。儘管財報發佈後股價下跌了 20%，但公司在貸款發放量和盈利能力方面顯示出顯著增長。由於貸款風險增加和潛在的放寬貸款標準，市場上出現了一些擔憂。Upstart 的核心個人貸款業務仍有增長空間，特別是在汽車貸款和房屋貸款方面。儘管股票仍處於溢價狀態，但近期的表現暗示了潛在的上行空間，儘管預計會有波動</p>

<p><strong>Upstart</strong>(UPST 0.45%) recently released its second-quarter earnings results and beat analyst expectations on the top and bottom lines. Not only that, Upstart posted a surprise profit, raised guidance, and virtually every growth metric in the report looks strong.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>Upstart</strong>(UPST 0.45%) 最近發佈了第二季度的財報，超出了分析師對收入和利潤的預期。不僅如此，Upstart 還意外實現了盈利，提高了指導預期，報告中的幾乎所有增長指標都表現強勁。</p>
</div><p>After a 20% post-earnings drop, is Upstart stock a buy now? Let's take a closer look at how the lending technology company has performed recently, why the stock might have dropped after earnings, and why there could be plenty of upside potential ahead.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在財報發佈後股價下跌 20% 後，Upstart 股票現在值得購買嗎？讓我們仔細看看這家貸款科技公司最近的表現，為什麼股價在財報發佈後下跌，以及未來可能存在的巨大上行潛力。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MjkyODQvc3RvY2tzLWZhbGxpbmctMjAyMi5qcGcmdz03MDA" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F829284%2Fstocks-falling-2022.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>圖片來源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><h2>The numbers look <em>very</em> strong</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>數據看起來 <em>非常</em> 強勁</h2>
</div><p>As mentioned, Upstart handily exceeded expectations in the second quarter. Loan origination volume grew by 154% year over year to $2.8 billion, and that's despite a challenging lending environment. Revenue more than doubled, and although Upstart itself called for a modest loss in the second quarter, the company surprised investors with its first quarter of GAAP (generally accepted accounting principles) bottom-line profitability in years.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>正如所提到的，Upstart 在第二季度的表現遠超預期。貸款發放量同比增長 154%，達到 28 億美元，儘管面臨嚴峻的貸款環境。收入翻了一番，儘管 Upstart 自身預計第二季度會有小幅虧損，但該公司卻給投資者帶來了多年來首次實現 GAAP（公認會計原則）底線盈利的驚喜。</p>
</div><h2>Why did Upstart's stock fall?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>為什麼 Upstart 的股票下跌？</h2>
</div><p>To be perfectly clear, Upstart's business looks <em>strong</em>. But that doesn't mean the stock fell for no reason. There were a couple of metrics that could have caused the move:</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>需要明確的是，Upstart 的業務看起來 <em>強勁</em>。但這並不意味着股價下跌是沒有原因的。有幾個指標可能導致了這一變動：</p>
</div><ul>
<li>Upstart's conversion rate increased sequentially from 19.1% to 23.9%. This is the percentage of people who check their rates on Upstart and end up getting loans. This could be an indicator that Upstart is significantly relaxing its lending standards to fuel growth.</li>
<li>Upstart is holding over $1 billion in loans on its balance sheet, about 25% more than at the end of the first quarter. Most of these are held for research and development (R&amp;D) purposes, but in a nutshell, more loans on the balance sheet means more risk.</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li>Upstart 的轉化率從 19.1% 增加到 23.9%。這是指在 Upstart 上查詢利率的人中最終獲得貸款的比例。這可能表明 Upstart 正在顯著放寬貸款標準以推動增長。</li>
<li>Upstart 在資產負債表上持有超過 10 億美元的貸款，比第一季度末增加了約 25%。其中大部分是用於研究和開發（R&amp;D），但簡單來説，資產負債表上的貸款越多，風險就越大。</li>
</ul>
</div><h2>Massive potential from here</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>從這裏看有巨大的潛力</h2>
</div><p>Upstart's core business is personal loans, and even with more than $10 billion in annualized volume, it still processes a single-digit market share of all personal loan volume. So, there could still be plenty of room to grow its core business.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Upstart 的核心業務是個人貸款，即使年化貸款量超過 100 億美元，它在所有個人貸款量中仍然只佔單一數字的市場份額。因此，它的核心業務仍然有很大的增長空間。</p>
</div><p>This is especially true if interest rates start to fall. Americans have $1.2 trillion in credit card debt, and as refinancing through personal loans gets more affordable, it could be a massive opportunity.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如果利率開始下降，這一點尤其成立。美國人有 1.2 萬億美元的信用卡債務，隨着通過個人貸款再融資變得更加實惠，這可能是一個巨大的機會。</p>
</div><p>However, it's Upstart's two newer loan verticals -- auto and home loans -- that are most promising. For starters, the auto loan market is roughly 5 times the size of the personal lending market, and Upstart's auto volume has grown sixfold over the past year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，Upstart 的兩個新貸款領域——汽車貸款和住房貸款——最具前景。首先，汽車貸款市場的規模大約是個人貸款市場的 5 倍，而 Upstart 的汽車貸款量在過去一年中增長了六倍。</p>
</div><p>On the home loan side (which is the newer of the two), Upstart grew its home loan originations by 67% sequentially. And this is an enormous opportunity -- especially when it comes to Upstart's focus: home equity lines of credit (HELOCs). Homeowners in the United States are sitting on $35 trillion in home equity, an all-time high, and as rates fall, there's a lot of pent-up demand for tapping into it.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在住房貸款方面（這是兩個領域中較新的），Upstart 的住房貸款發放量環比增長了 67%。這是一個巨大的機會——尤其是考慮到 Upstart 的重點：房屋淨值信貸額度（HELOCs）。美國的房主擁有 35 萬億美元的房屋淨值，創歷史新高，隨着利率下降，提取這些淨值的需求非常旺盛。</p>
</div><p>Even though the growth has been impressive, auto and home loan originations combine for less than 7% of Upstart's business. But if the current momentum continues, that won't be the case for long.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>儘管增長令人印象深刻，但汽車和住房貸款的發放量合計佔 Upstart 業務的不到 7%。但如果當前的勢頭持續，這種情況不會持續太久。</p>
</div><h2>Should you buy Upstart stock right now?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>你現在應該購買 Upstart 股票嗎？</h2>
</div><p>Upstart isn't a cheap stock, even after this decline. It doesn't have an established record of profitability, the lending environment is still not great, and there's lots of economic uncertainty. At more than 9 times trailing-12-month sales, Upstart still trades at a premium.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>即使在這次下跌之後，Upstart 也不是一隻便宜的股票。它沒有建立盈利記錄，貸款環境仍然不佳，經濟不確定性很大。在過去 12 個月的銷售額超過 9 倍的情況下，Upstart 仍然以溢價交易。</p>
</div><p>However, this was a stellar earnings report. Not only did Upstart beat expectations on the top and bottom lines, but it also raised guidance and is growing rapidly in its new verticals. I'm hesitant to call Upstart a &#34;bargain,&#34; and it's likely to be rather volatile for the foreseeable future, even if things go well. So, keep that in mind before deciding to invest.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，這是一份出色的財報。Upstart 不僅在收入和利潤上超出了預期，還提高了指導預期，並在其新領域快速增長。我不願意稱 Upstart 為 “便宜貨”，即使情況良好，它在可預見的未來可能仍會相當波動。因此，在決定投資之前，請記住這一點。</p>
</div>

Upstart 的股票在財報發佈後出現下跌——現在是否是一個極具吸引力的買入機會？