<p>自 2022 年 10 月以來，<strong>英偉達</strong> 的市值已增加超過 4 萬億美元。為了更好地理解這一點，目前沒有其他公司市值甚至達到 4 萬億美元。</p>
<p>這家圖形處理單元（GPU）製造商的市值大幅上漲，源於一些大型科技公司每年在其芯片上的支出達到數千億美元。四大超大規模雲服務商預計今年將在人工智能基礎設施上支出約 3800 億美元，並且他們預計明年的支出將顯著增加。</p>
<p>英偉達將在一段時間內成為這一支出增加的主要受益者，但這並不意味着其股票將繼續上漲。市場價格是基於投資者對未來的預期，而對英偉達的預期仍然很高。</p>
<p>但另外兩隻人工智能股票看起來可能會超出投資者的預期，推動這兩家公司在 2030 年前超過英偉達的市值。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MjkyNjYvZ2V0dHlpbWFnZXMtYWktY2hpcC1vbi1hLWNpcmN1aXQtYm9hcmQuanBnJnc9NzAw?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="700" height="393" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MjkyNjYvZ2V0dHlpbWFnZXMtYWktY2hpcC1vbi1hLWNpcmN1aXQtYm9hcmQuanBnJnc9NzAw"/></p>
<p>圖片來源：Getty Images。</p>
<h2>英偉達能否繼續上漲？</h2>
<p>人工智能支出的持續增長使投資者對英偉達能夠保持快速銷售增長的信心越來越強。</p>
<p>三大主要公共雲服務提供商都重申了需求超過計算能力，這意味着他們將繼續支出越來越多的資金以滿足客户的需求。同時，英偉達正在儘可能快地銷售芯片。這導致該公司第一季度的收入增長了 69%，調整後的收入增長了 59%。</p>
<p>但以這種速度繼續增長的可能性不大。所有四大超大規模雲服務商都在為自己的人工智能訓練開發定製硅解決方案。<strong>微軟</strong> 據報道計劃在 2026 年底將其支出的很大一部分轉向其 Maia300 芯片。<strong>Meta Platforms</strong>（META 0.38%）正在努力擴展其定製的 Meta 訓練和推理加速（MTIA）芯片能夠處理的人工智能工作負載。</p>
<p>此外，<strong>AMD</strong> 也開始在追趕英偉達方面取得進展，同時繼續提供出色的性價比。</p>
<p>投資者應該預期，隨着英偉達面臨激烈的競爭以爭奪數據中心服務器的市場份額，並與大數法則作鬥爭，銷售增長將顯著放緩。隨着供需力量達到平衡，這家芯片製造商可能無法維持如此高的毛利率。這可能會對盈利增長產生壓力。</p>
<p>但目前股票的交易價格超過 42 倍的預期收益，投資者似乎認為這些風險不會實現。我認為，更可能的是，這些風險將阻止英偉達繼續以如此快速的速度超越市場，限制其未來的上漲空間。</p>
<p>如果投資者想購買一家大型科技公司的股票，以利用人工智能的增長，以下兩家行業巨頭提供了更好的價值和更大的上漲空間。事實上，我預計到 2030 年它們的市值都將超過英偉達。</p>
<h2>1. 亞馬遜</h2>
<p><strong>亞馬遜</strong>（AMZN -0.00%）是全球最大的公共雲計算提供商，擁有亞馬遜網絡服務（AWS），使其成為英偉達最大的客户之一。雖然該公司在 2022 年生成式人工智能迅速崛起時措手不及，但管理層迅速趕上了競爭，這在一定程度上得益於其對 Anthropic 的投資。</p>
<p>管理層繼續看到其人工智能服務的強勁需求，收入同比增長超過一倍。然而，AWS 的規模掩蓋了這一強勁增長。</p>
<p>雲服務部門在過去 12 個月內產生了 1160 億美元的收入。這比其下一個競爭對手微軟大約大 55%。但 AWS 的年增長率為 17%，與微軟上個季度 39% 的雲服務增長相比顯得令人失望。儘管如此，亞馬遜在競爭對手強勁增長的情況下，仍然基本保持了其市場份額。</p>
<p>更重要的是，AWS 的利潤率非常強勁。過去 12 個月的營業利潤率為 36.8%，高於一年前的 33.4%。雖然在第二季度有所下降，但這是由於股權補償的時機所致。長期趨勢顯示利潤率持續改善。</p>
<p>與此同時，亞馬遜的零售業務本身也變得非常盈利。北美部門的營業利潤率在上個季度攀升至 7%，而國際部門的利潤率為 3.4%。兩者的強勁收入增長均為 11%，這得益於高利潤率廣告收入增長 22%。</p>
<p>長期趨勢有利於亞馬遜各業務的穩定收入增長，尤其是在其高利潤率業務（即 AWS 和廣告）方面。這應該導致其盈利增長遠高於平均水平。</p>
<p>隨着其在 AWS 上的支出增長放緩，自由現金流預計將在本十年末達到新高。這為公司提供了更多的投資增長機會，正如它在歷史上所做的那樣。當前股票在小幅回調中看起來很有吸引力。</p>
<h2>2. Meta Platforms</h2>
<p>Meta 是另一家主要的英偉達客户，但與亞馬遜不同，它僅將英偉達的芯片用於自身的人工智能需求。事實上，它可能在自身的人工智能需求上花費的比世界上任何其他公司都要多。Meta 的第二季度業績清楚地表明瞭它為何願意花費如此之多。</p>
<p>上個季度銷售增長了 22%，營業利潤率擴大了 5 個百分點。為了提供一些背景，這比 <strong>Snap</strong> 和 <strong>Pinterest</strong> 的收入增長速度更快，儘管在社交媒體廣告中佔據了更大的市場份額。Meta 的人工智能能力顯然是其表現優異的原因。</p>
<p>人工智能使得廣告和有機內容的推薦變得更好。因此，該公司投放了更多廣告，並能夠對每次廣告展示收取更高的價格。同時，它還看到其生成式人工智能廣告創作工具的強勁需求，這使得營銷人員更容易創建和測試新想法。</p>
<p>人工智能可以解鎖許多其他機會。這些機會包括在 WhatsApp 和 Messenger 中為企業提供的人工智能聊天機器人，這可能會推動 Facebook 和 Instagram 上點擊消息廣告的增加。</p>
<p>管理層表示，其內置於應用程序中的 Meta AI 聊天機器人目前擁有 10 億月活躍用户，為其提供了另一個通過廣告獲利的渠道。它最近才開始在 WhatsApp 和 Threads 上展示廣告。隨着需求因其生成式人工智能工具而增加，這應該為其增長供應提供空間。</p>
<p>最後，Meta 在增強現實和虛擬現實的開發方面處於前沿。人工智能可以在一個也能感知周圍環境的環境中解鎖大量價值。該公司已經看到其內置人工智能的 Meta 眼鏡的早期採用情況非常強勁。</p>
<p>考慮到企業價值約為未來息税折舊攤銷前利潤（EBITDA）預估的 16 倍，股票看起來非常有吸引力。儘管數據中心的折舊將對其利潤率產生壓力，但公司正在證明這些投資正在帶來豐厚的收入增長，並在長期內釋放出大量潛在利潤。</p>

<p>文章預測，到 2030 年，兩隻人工智能股票，亞馬遜和另一家未透露名稱的公司，可能會超過英偉達的市值。由於對其芯片的高需求，英偉達的價值已經大幅上升，但競爭正在加劇，尤其是主要雲服務提供商正在開發的定製硅解決方案。儘管英偉達的增長令人印象深刻，但文章指出，由於這些競爭壓力，其股票可能不會繼續以相同的速度上漲。作為領先的雲服務提供商，亞馬遜因其強勁的增長和盈利能力而受到關注，特別是在其 AWS 業務部門，這可能使其在未來獲得更好的收益</p>

<p>Since October 2022, <strong>Nvidia</strong> has seen its value increase by more than $4 trillion. To put that into perspective, no other company is even worth $4 trillion today.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>自 2022 年 10 月以來，<strong>英偉達</strong> 的市值已增加超過 4 萬億美元。為了更好地理解這一點，目前沒有其他公司市值甚至達到 4 萬億美元。</p>
</div><p>The huge surge in value for the maker of graphics processing units (GPUs) stems from a few big tech companies spending hundreds of billions on its chips every year. The four biggest hyperscalers are set to spend around $380 billion on AI infrastructure this year, and they have guided for significant steps up in spending next year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這家圖形處理單元（GPU）製造商的市值大幅上漲，源於一些大型科技公司每年在其芯片上的支出達到數千億美元。四大超大規模雲服務商預計今年將在人工智能基礎設施上支出約 3800 億美元，並且他們預計明年的支出將顯著增加。</p>
</div><p>Nvidia is set to be the prime beneficiary of that increased spending for some time, but that doesn't mean the stock will continue to climb. Market prices are based on what investors expect in the future, and the expectations for Nvidia remain high.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>英偉達將在一段時間內成為這一支出增加的主要受益者，但這並不意味着其股票將繼續上漲。市場價格是基於投資者對未來的預期，而對英偉達的預期仍然很高。</p>
</div><p>But two other AI stocks look like they could surpass investor expectations, pushing both companies to exceed Nvidia's value by 2030.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但另外兩隻人工智能股票看起來可能會超出投資者的預期，推動這兩家公司在 2030 年前超過英偉達的市值。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MjkyNjYvZ2V0dHlpbWFnZXMtYWktY2hpcC1vbi1hLWNpcmN1aXQtYm9hcmQuanBnJnc9NzAw" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F829266%2Fgettyimages-ai-chip-on-a-circuit-board.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>圖片來源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><h2>Can Nvidia keep climbing from here?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>英偉達能否繼續上漲？</h2>
</div><p>Continued growth in AI spending is giving investors more and more confidence that Nvidia can keep up its torrid sales growth.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>人工智能支出的持續增長使投資者對英偉達能夠保持快速銷售增長的信心越來越強。</p>
</div><p>The three main public cloud providers all reiterated that demand exceeds computing capacity, which means they will continue to spend growing amounts to meet their customers' needs. Meanwhile, Nvidia is selling chips as fast as it can make them. That led to a 69% rise in revenue in the company's first quarter, and a 59% increase in adjusted income.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>三大主要公共雲服務提供商都重申了需求超過計算能力，這意味着他們將繼續支出越來越多的資金以滿足客户的需求。同時，英偉達正在儘可能快地銷售芯片。這導致該公司第一季度的收入增長了 69%，調整後的收入增長了 59%。</p>
</div><p>But it's unlikely to see growth continue at this pace. All four hyperscalers are working on custom silicon solutions for their own AI training. <strong>Microsoft</strong> is reportedly planning to shift a significant portion of its spending to its Maia300 chip in late 2026. <strong>Meta Platforms</strong>(META 0.38%) is working on expanding the AI workloads that its custom Meta Training and Inference Accelerating (MTIA) chips can handle.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但以這種速度繼續增長的可能性不大。所有四大超大規模雲服務商都在為自己的人工智能訓練開發定製硅解決方案。<strong>微軟</strong> 據報道計劃在 2026 年底將其支出的很大一部分轉向其 Maia300 芯片。<strong>Meta Platforms</strong>（META 0.38%）正在努力擴展其定製的 Meta 訓練和推理加速（MTIA）芯片能夠處理的人工智能工作負載。</p>
</div><p>And on top of all of that, <strong>AMD</strong> is starting to show progress in catching up to Nvidia, while continuing to offer excellent price performance.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>此外，<strong>AMD</strong> 也開始在追趕英偉達方面取得進展，同時繼續提供出色的性價比。</p>
</div><p>Investors should expect a significant slowdown in sales as Nvidia faces fierce competition for its share of data center servers and it battles with the law of large numbers. As supply-demand forces reach equilibrium, the chipmaker might not be able to command such high gross margins, either. That could weigh on earnings growth.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>投資者應該預期，隨着英偉達面臨激烈的競爭以爭奪數據中心服務器的市場份額，並與大數法則作鬥爭，銷售增長將顯著放緩。隨着供需力量達到平衡，這家芯片製造商可能無法維持如此高的毛利率。這可能會對盈利增長產生壓力。</p>
</div><p>But with the stock currently trading at more than 42 times forward earnings, investors seem to think those risks aren't going to materialize. I think it's more likely they will keep Nvidia from continuing to outperform the market at such a torrid pace, limiting how much more upside there is from here.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但目前股票的交易價格超過 42 倍的預期收益，投資者似乎認為這些風險不會實現。我認為，更可能的是，這些風險將阻止英偉達繼續以如此快速的速度超越市場，限制其未來的上漲空間。</p>
</div><p>If investors want to buy shares of a big tech company capitalizing on the growth of AI, the following two industry giants present better value with more upside. In fact, I expect they will both be worth more than Nvidia by 2030.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如果投資者想購買一家大型科技公司的股票，以利用人工智能的增長，以下兩家行業巨頭提供了更好的價值和更大的上漲空間。事實上，我預計到 2030 年它們的市值都將超過英偉達。</p>
</div><h2>1. Amazon</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>1. 亞馬遜</h2>
</div><p><strong>Amazon</strong>(AMZN -0.00%) is the largest provider of public cloud computing in the world with Amazon Web Services (AWS), making it one of Nvidia's biggest customers. While the company was caught flat-footed as generative AI took off in 2022, management quickly caught up with the competition thanks in part to its investment in Anthropic.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>亞馬遜</strong>（AMZN -0.00%）是全球最大的公共雲計算提供商，擁有亞馬遜網絡服務（AWS），使其成為英偉達最大的客户之一。雖然該公司在 2022 年生成式人工智能迅速崛起時措手不及，但管理層迅速趕上了競爭，這在一定程度上得益於其對 Anthropic 的投資。</p>
</div><p>Management continues to see strong demand for its AI services, with revenue more than doubling year over year. However, AWS's scale has masked that strong growth.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>管理層繼續看到其人工智能服務的強勁需求，收入同比增長超過一倍。然而，AWS 的規模掩蓋了這一強勁增長。</p>
</div><p>The cloud services segment generated $116 billion in revenue over the last 12 months. That's roughly 55% larger than its next closest competitor, Microsoft. But AWS's 17% year-over-year growth looks disappointing compared to Microsoft's 39% growth in cloud services last quarter. Nonetheless, Amazon has mostly kept its market share despite strong growth by its competitors.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>雲服務部門在過去 12 個月內產生了 1160 億美元的收入。這比其下一個競爭對手微軟大約大 55%。但 AWS 的年增長率為 17%，與微軟上個季度 39% 的雲服務增長相比顯得令人失望。儘管如此，亞馬遜在競爭對手強勁增長的情況下，仍然基本保持了其市場份額。</p>
</div><p>What's more important is that the margin profile on AWS is extremely strong. The operating margin of 36.8% over the last 12 months is up from 33.4% a year ago. And while it took a dip in the second quarter, that's due to the timing of share-based compensation. The long-term trend shows continued improvement in margins.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>更重要的是，AWS 的利潤率非常強勁。過去 12 個月的營業利潤率為 36.8%，高於一年前的 33.4%。雖然在第二季度有所下降，但這是由於股權補償的時機所致。長期趨勢顯示利潤率持續改善。</p>
</div><p>Meanwhile, Amazon's retail business is becoming very profitable in its own right. The North American segment saw its operating margin climb to 7% last quarter while the international segment's margin came in at 3.4%. Strong top-line growth of 11% for both helped, which was bolstered by high-margin ad revenue growth of 22%.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>與此同時，亞馬遜的零售業務本身也變得非常盈利。北美部門的營業利潤率在上個季度攀升至 7%，而國際部門的利潤率為 3.4%。兩者的強勁收入增長均為 11%，這得益於高利潤率廣告收入增長 22%。</p>
</div><p>The long-term trends favor steady revenue growth across Amazon's businesses with particular strength in its high-margin operations (namely AWS and advertising). That should result in earnings growth well above average.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>長期趨勢有利於亞馬遜各業務的穩定收入增長，尤其是在其高利潤率業務（即 AWS 和廣告）方面。這應該導致其盈利增長遠高於平均水平。</p>
</div><p>And as its spending growth on AWS slows down, free cash flow should rise to new records by the end of the decade. That gives the company more opportunities to invest for growth, just as it has managed to do throughout its history. The stock currently looks attractive amid a small pullback in price.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>隨着其在 AWS 上的支出增長放緩，自由現金流預計將在本十年末達到新高。這為公司提供了更多的投資增長機會，正如它在歷史上所做的那樣。當前股票在小幅回調中看起來很有吸引力。</p>
</div><h2>2. Meta Platforms</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>2. Meta Platforms</h2>
</div><p>Meta is another major Nvidia customer, but unlike Amazon, it only uses Nvidia chips for its own AI needs. In fact, it might be spending more on its own AI needs than any other company in the world. And Meta's second-quarter results are a clear example of why it's willing to spend so much.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Meta 是另一家主要的英偉達客户，但與亞馬遜不同，它僅將英偉達的芯片用於自身的人工智能需求。事實上，它可能在自身的人工智能需求上花費的比世界上任何其他公司都要多。Meta 的第二季度業績清楚地表明瞭它為何願意花費如此之多。</p>
</div><p>Sales grew 22% last quarter, and its operating margin expanded 5 percentage points. For some perspective, that's faster revenue growth than both <strong>Snap</strong> and <strong>Pinterest</strong> despite being a much bigger force in social media advertising. Meta's AI capabilities are a clear reason for the outperformance.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>上個季度銷售增長了 22%，營業利潤率擴大了 5 個百分點。為了提供一些背景，這比 <strong>Snap</strong> 和 <strong>Pinterest</strong> 的收入增長速度更快，儘管在社交媒體廣告中佔據了更大的市場份額。Meta 的人工智能能力顯然是其表現優異的原因。</p>
</div><p>Artificial intelligence has led to better recommendations for both advertisements and organic content. As a result, the company served up more ads and was able to command higher pricing per ad impression. Meanwhile, it's seeing strong uptake of its generative AI tools for ad creation, which makes it easier for marketers to create and test new ideas.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>人工智能使得廣告和有機內容的推薦變得更好。因此，該公司投放了更多廣告，並能夠對每次廣告展示收取更高的價格。同時，它還看到其生成式人工智能廣告創作工具的強勁需求，這使得營銷人員更容易創建和測試新想法。</p>
</div><p>There are a number of other opportunities that AI could unlock. Those include AI chatbots for businesses in WhatsApp and Messenger, which could drive increased click-to-message ads in Facebook and Instagram.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>人工智能可以解鎖許多其他機會。這些機會包括在 WhatsApp 和 Messenger 中為企業提供的人工智能聊天機器人，這可能會推動 Facebook 和 Instagram 上點擊消息廣告的增加。</p>
</div><p>And management has said its Meta AI chatbot built into its apps now has 1 billion monthly active users, giving it yet another surface to monetize with ads. It only recently started showing ads in WhatsApp and Threads. That should give it room to grow supply as demand increases due to its generative AI tools making advertising easier.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>管理層表示，其內置於應用程序中的 Meta AI 聊天機器人目前擁有 10 億月活躍用户，為其提供了另一個通過廣告獲利的渠道。它最近才開始在 WhatsApp 和 Threads 上展示廣告。隨着需求因其生成式人工智能工具而增加，這應該為其增長供應提供空間。</p>
</div><p>Lastly, Meta is at the forefront of development in augmented and virtual reality. AI can unlock a lot of value in an environment that's also aware of your surroundings. The company has already seen strong early adoption of its Meta Glasses with AI built in.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>最後，Meta 在增強現實和虛擬現實的開發方面處於前沿。人工智能可以在一個也能感知周圍環境的環境中解鎖大量價值。該公司已經看到其內置人工智能的 Meta 眼鏡的早期採用情況非常強勁。</p>
</div><p>Shares look very attractive with an enterprise value around 16 times forward estimates on earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA). While depreciation of its data centers will weigh on its margins, the company is proving the investments are paying off with very strong revenue growth and by unlocking a lot of potential profits in the long run.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>考慮到企業價值約為未來息税折舊攤銷前利潤（EBITDA）預估的 16 倍，股票看起來非常有吸引力。儘管數據中心的折舊將對其利潤率產生壓力，但公司正在證明這些投資正在帶來豐厚的收入增長，並在長期內釋放出大量潛在利潤。</p>
</div>

Prediction: 2 Artificial Intelligence (AI) Stocks That Will Be Worth More Than Nvidia by 2030

- 自 2022 年 10 月以來，Nvidia 的市值增長超過 4 萬億美元。  
- 四大超大規模雲服務商預計今年在 AI 基礎設施上的支出將達到 3800 億美元。  
- 預計到 2030 年，亞馬遜和 Meta 的市值將超過 Nvidia。  

Motley Fool

亞馬遜

英偉達

亞馬遜每日 2 倍做多 ETF - Direxion

預測：到 2030 年，兩隻人工智能（AI）股票的市值將超過英偉達