<p><strong>伯克希爾哈撒韋</strong>(BRK.A -0.05%)(BRK.B 0.24%) 被許多人視為長期投資者可靠的股票。自從年輕的沃倫·巴菲特在 1965 年接管公司以來，它的表現超過了 <strong>標準普爾 500 指數</strong>，並且從一個衰老的紡織製造商演變為一個多元化的企業集團，創造了百萬富翁的收益。</p>
<p>但在過去的 12 個月裏，伯克希爾哈撒韋的股票僅上漲了 7.4%，而標準普爾 500 指數上漲了 16%。下面，我將分析它為何表現不佳，以及在 11 月下次財報發佈之前，為什麼仍然值得增持。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84Mjk2MTEvd2FycmVuLWJ1ZmZldHQuanBnJnc9NzAw?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="700" height="466" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84Mjk2MTEvd2FycmVuLWJ1ZmZldHQuanBnJnc9NzAw"/></p>
<p>伯克希爾哈撒韋首席執行官沃倫·巴菲特。圖片來源：The Motley Fool。</p>
<h2>為什麼伯克希爾哈撒韋表現不佳？</h2>
<p>對伯克希爾股票影響最大的因素是巴菲特在 5 月初宣佈他將在年底前退休，辭去首席執行官職務。他將由伯克希爾能源的董事長兼首席執行官格雷格·阿貝爾接任。阿貝爾自 1999 年起就加入伯克希爾，但並不像巴菲特或他已故的長期合作伙伴查理·芒格那樣是一位經驗豐富的選股者。巴菲特將繼續擔任董事會主席。</p>
<p>伯克希爾的股票投資組合價值 2950 億美元，佔其市值 1.03 萬億美元的 29%。如果阿貝爾及其團隊管理不善這一龐大的投資組合——其中包括對 <strong>蘋果</strong>、<strong>美國運通</strong>、<strong>美國銀行</strong> 和 <strong>可口可樂</strong> 的重大投資——可能會侵蝕公司的長期盈利增長。伯克希爾對價值股的關注進一步限制了其今年的收益，因為許多投資者轉向了增長型投資。</p>
<p>這還不是全部。阿吉特·賈因在伯克希爾擔任保險主管近四十年，他在 2024 年出售了超過一半的股份。隨後，伯克希爾暫停了股票回購，出售了大量頂級股票，並通過大規模購買短期國債將現金及其等價物提升至創紀錄的高位。所有這些保守的舉措表明，伯克希爾的股票和更廣泛的市場都變得被高估。</p>
<h2>為什麼伯克希爾哈撒韋仍然是一個有吸引力的投資？</h2>
<p>這些挑戰顯然阻止了看漲者急於迴歸伯克希爾，但我認為其股票仍然看起來合理估值。在當前市值下，伯克希爾的交易價格為 2024 年運營收益的 21 倍（不包括與投資相關的收益和損失）。</p>
<p>回到 2019 年底，伯克希爾的股票仍以當年運營收益的 23 倍交易。如果你當時沒有投資伯克希爾，因為你認為它看起來有點貴，你就錯過了超過 110% 的收益。</p>
<p>從 2019 年到 2024 年，伯克希爾的運營收益以 15% 的年複合增長率（CAGR）增長——即使在疫情、通貨膨脹、高利率、貿易戰、地緣政治衝突和其他宏觀逆風擾動全球市場的情況下。它實現了這種穩定增長，因為其核心業務從保險子公司中產生了大量利潤——這些子公司比其他行業更能抵禦經濟衰退。隨着利率下降和宏觀環境穩定，其其他子公司——尤其是鐵路、能源和消費品行業的子公司——應該會再次表現出色，並補充其保險業務的增長。</p>
<p>至於巴菲特的退休及其對伯克希爾投資組合的潛在影響，我認為阿貝爾不會突然改變這些股票。相反，他可能會堅持巴菲特的價值導向選股策略，而不是追逐風險更高、增長更快的投資。其核心業務應該繼續產生新現金，以逐步擴大該投資組合。</p>
<p>伯克希爾哈撒韋在巴菲特最終退休時可能會經歷一些波折，但我相信他建立了一家將在未來幾十年繼續增長的公司。它可能不會像過去那樣引起太多的興奮，但現在仍然是最值得購買的股票之一。</p>

伯克希爾哈撒韋-B

伯克希爾哈撒韋-A

南方兩倍做多伯克希爾

<p>伯克希爾哈撒韋（BRK.A，BRK.B）被視為一個穩健的長期投資，儘管過去一年股價上漲了 7.4%，但仍落後於標準普爾 500 指數的 16% 的漲幅。首席執行官沃倫·巴菲特即將退休，引發了對格雷格·阿貝爾未來管理能力的擔憂。然而，伯克希爾的股票在 2024 年運營收益的 21 倍估值下仍然合理，且公司擁有強勁的增長曆史。公司的多元化投資組合和穩定的保險利潤使其在未來增長中處於良好位置，使其在 11 月財報發佈前成為一個引人注目的買入機會</p>

<p><strong>Berkshire Hathaway</strong>(BRK.A -0.05%)(BRK.B 0.24%) is considered by many to be a reliable stock for long-term investors. It's outperformed the <strong>S&amp;P 500</strong> ever since a young Warren Buffett took over the company in 1965, and its evolution from an aging textile maker to a diversified conglomerate churned out millionaire-making gains.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>伯克希爾哈撒韋</strong>(BRK.A -0.05%)(BRK.B 0.24%) 被許多人視為長期投資者可靠的股票。自從年輕的沃倫·巴菲特在 1965 年接管公司以來，它的表現超過了 <strong>標準普爾 500 指數</strong>，並且從一個衰老的紡織製造商演變為一個多元化的企業集團，創造了百萬富翁的收益。</p>
</div><p>But over the past 12 months, Berkshire Hathaway's stock is only up 7.4%, as the S&amp;P 500 rallied 16%. Below, I'll examine why it underperformed the market -- and why it's still worth accumulating before its next earnings report in November.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但在過去的 12 個月裏，伯克希爾哈撒韋的股票僅上漲了 7.4%，而標準普爾 500 指數上漲了 16%。下面，我將分析它為何表現不佳，以及在 11 月下次財報發佈之前，為什麼仍然值得增持。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84Mjk2MTEvd2FycmVuLWJ1ZmZldHQuanBnJnc9NzAw" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F829611%2Fwarren-buffett.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Berkshire Hathaway CEO Warren Buffett. Image source: The Motley Fool.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>伯克希爾哈撒韋首席執行官沃倫·巴菲特。圖片來源：The Motley Fool。</p>
</div><h2>Why did Berkshire Hathaway underperform the market?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>為什麼伯克希爾哈撒韋表現不佳？</h2>
</div><p>The heaviest weight on Berkshire's stock was Buffett's announcement in early May that he would retire by the end of the year from his role as CEO. He will be succeeded by Greg Abel, the chairman and CEO of Berkshire Energy. Abel has been with Berkshire since 1999 but isn't a seasoned stock picker like Buffett or his longtime partner, the late Charlie Munger. Buffett will keep his title as board chairman.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>對伯克希爾股票影響最大的因素是巴菲特在 5 月初宣佈他將在年底前退休，辭去首席執行官職務。他將由伯克希爾能源的董事長兼首席執行官格雷格·阿貝爾接任。阿貝爾自 1999 年起就加入伯克希爾，但並不像巴菲特或他已故的長期合作伙伴查理·芒格那樣是一位經驗豐富的選股者。巴菲特將繼續擔任董事會主席。</p>
</div><p>Berkshire's stock portfolio is worth $295 billion, or 29% of its market cap of $1.03 trillion. If Abel and his team mismanage that massive portfolio -- which includes big stakes in <strong>Apple</strong>, <strong>American Express</strong>, <strong>Bank of America</strong>, and <strong>Coca-Cola</strong> -- it could erode the company's long-term earnings growth. Berkshire's focus on value stocks further capped its gains this year as many investors rotated toward growth plays.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>伯克希爾的股票投資組合價值 2950 億美元，佔其市值 1.03 萬億美元的 29%。如果阿貝爾及其團隊管理不善這一龐大的投資組合——其中包括對 <strong>蘋果</strong>、<strong>美國運通</strong>、<strong>美國銀行</strong> 和 <strong>可口可樂</strong> 的重大投資——可能會侵蝕公司的長期盈利增長。伯克希爾對價值股的關注進一步限制了其今年的收益，因為許多投資者轉向了增長型投資。</p>
</div><p>That's not all. Ajit Jain, who served as Berkshire's insurance chief for nearly four decades, sold more than half of his shares in 2024. Berkshire then paused its buybacks, sold a lot of its top stocks, and boosted its cash and equivalents to record highs with its massive purchases of short-term Treasuries. All of those conservative moves suggested both Berkshire's stock and the broader market were getting overvalued.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這還不是全部。阿吉特·賈因在伯克希爾擔任保險主管近四十年，他在 2024 年出售了超過一半的股份。隨後，伯克希爾暫停了股票回購，出售了大量頂級股票，並通過大規模購買短期國債將現金及其等價物提升至創紀錄的高位。所有這些保守的舉措表明，伯克希爾的股票和更廣泛的市場都變得被高估。</p>
</div><h2>Why is Berkshire Hathaway still a compelling investment?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>為什麼伯克希爾哈撒韋仍然是一個有吸引力的投資？</h2>
</div><p>Those challenges are clearly preventing the bulls from rushing back to Berkshire, but I think its stock still looks reasonably valued. At its current market cap, Berkshire trades at 21 times its operating earnings (which exclude its investment-related gains and losses) from 2024.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這些挑戰顯然阻止了看漲者急於迴歸伯克希爾，但我認為其股票仍然看起來合理估值。在當前市值下，伯克希爾的交易價格為 2024 年運營收益的 21 倍（不包括與投資相關的收益和損失）。</p>
</div><p>Flipping the calendar back to the end of 2019, Berkshire's stock was still trading at 23 times operating earnings for the year. If you didn't invest in Berkshire back then because you thought it looked a bit too pricey, you missed out on a gain of more than 110%.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>回到 2019 年底，伯克希爾的股票仍以當年運營收益的 23 倍交易。如果你當時沒有投資伯克希爾，因為你認為它看起來有點貴，你就錯過了超過 110% 的收益。</p>
</div><p>From 2019 to 2024, Berkshire's operating earnings grew at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 15% -- even as the pandemic, inflation, high interest rates, trade wars, geopolitical conflicts, and other macro headwinds rattled the global markets. It achieved that stable growth because its core business generates a lot of its profits from its insurance subsidiaries -- which are better insulated from economic downturns than other sectors. As interest rates decline and the macro environment stabilizes, its other subsidiaries -- especially those in the railroad, energy, and consumer staples sectors -- should shine again and complement the growth of its insurance businesses.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>從 2019 年到 2024 年，伯克希爾的運營收益以 15% 的年複合增長率（CAGR）增長——即使在疫情、通貨膨脹、高利率、貿易戰、地緣政治衝突和其他宏觀逆風擾動全球市場的情況下。它實現了這種穩定增長，因為其核心業務從保險子公司中產生了大量利潤——這些子公司比其他行業更能抵禦經濟衰退。隨着利率下降和宏觀環境穩定，其其他子公司——尤其是鐵路、能源和消費品行業的子公司——應該會再次表現出色，並補充其保險業務的增長。</p>
</div><p>As for Buffett's retirement and its potential impact on Berkshire's portfolio, I don't think Abel will abruptly shake up those stocks. Instead, he'll probably stick with Buffett's value-oriented stock-picking strategies instead of chasing riskier and higher-growth plays. Its core business should keep generating fresh cash to gradually expand that portfolio.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>至於巴菲特的退休及其對伯克希爾投資組合的潛在影響，我認為阿貝爾不會突然改變這些股票。相反，他可能會堅持巴菲特的價值導向選股策略，而不是追逐風險更高、增長更快的投資。其核心業務應該繼續產生新現金，以逐步擴大該投資組合。</p>
</div><p>Berkshire Hathaway might experience a few hiccups as Buffett finally retires, but I believe he built a company that will keep growing for decades to come. It might not stir up as much excitement as it did in the past, but it's still one of the best stocks to buy right now.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>伯克希爾哈撒韋在巴菲特最終退休時可能會經歷一些波折，但我相信他建立了一家將在未來幾十年繼續增長的公司。它可能不會像過去那樣引起太多的興奮，但現在仍然是最值得購買的股票之一。</p>
</div>

Here's Why Berkshire Hathaway Stock Is a Buy Before November

- 伯克希爾哈撒韋的股票在過去 12 個月僅上漲 7.4%。  
- CEO 巴菲特宣佈將於年底退休，接任者阿貝爾面臨管理挑戰。  
- 儘管面臨困難，伯克希爾的核心業務仍具增長潛力，值得長期投資。

為什麼伯克希爾哈撒韋的股票在 11 月之前值得購買