<div id="readability-page-1">覆盤今年美股 AI Agent 標的市場表現，以 1 月至 2 月中旬模型平權以及 4 月初的關税波動為節點劃分為三段式波動，前兩個階段跟隨行業β同漲同跌偏多，第三階段隨 AI 貨幣化進程走出個股差異行情。 階段一（1 月至 2 月中）：24 年底 AI 應用公司超預期業績釋放未來樂觀預期，疊加 25 年初生成式 AI 和 Agent 技術的範式變革，美股 Agent 該階段普遍錄得不錯表現。 階段二（2 月中至 4 月初）：此階段關税的預期和落地、美聯儲降息延後等對行業風偏產生顯著負面影響，Agent 標的估值折損或為此階段普跌的重要原因。 階段三（4 月初至今）：關税影響邊際遞減，行業初創公司 ARR 加速放量，美股 Agent 能否借 AI 放量或提價，成此階段行情分化關鍵。AI 初創公司 ARR 放量時間顯著縮短，例如 Anthropic 年化收入 0→1、1 → 2、2 → 3 億美元分別為 21、3、2 月，創收能力快速提升；AI 建站工具 Lovable 僅 8 個月內便達到 1 億美元 ARR。 年初至今表現突出的標的主要分為兩類，核心均與 AI 賦能量增或價漲相關。一類是以 PLTR 為代表的 toB 企業，其股價走強的核心邏輯在於 AI 產品深度賦能主業（如 AI 提升服務效率，或拓展高價值客户場景），直接推動營收規模快速增長，這一特徵在 toB 領域因商業場景更易落地而表現得尤為顯著。另一類則是以 Spotify 為代表的 toC 企業，它們藉助 AI 優化產品體驗（如精準推薦、個性化升級），為提價提供用户認可的價值支撐，進而改善利潤率，成為股價上漲的重要推力。 1）Palantir（AI 放量：年初至 8 月 11 日，股價 +141.5%）：2023 年推出 AIP 平台後，開啓訂單業績高增期。2025Q2 總收入達到 10.04 億美元，同比 +48%。 2）Spotify（AI 提價：年初至 8 月 11 日，股價 +54.1%）：AI 功能加持下，產品提價推動 ARPPU 與利潤率逐季改善。23-25 年三年內，Spotify 產品提價三次。25Q2，Spotify 實現經營利潤 4.06 億歐元，同比增長 53%；經營利潤率達到 9.7%，同比提升 2.7pct。 3）Applovin（AI 放量：年初至 8 月 11 日，股價 +43.8%）：Axon AI 基於價值交付，帶動廣告收入放量增長。自 23Q3 開始，Applovin 的廣告業務收入維持 60% 以上高速增長。 4）SAP（AI 放量：年初至 8 月 11 日，股價 +17.7%）：Business AI 成為訂單成交重要手段，驅動雲業務快速增長。SAP 25Q2 超一半的雲訂單包含 AI 用例，實現營收 90.27 億歐元，同比增長 8.9%，其中雲收入 51.3 億歐元，同比增長 28%。 表現不佳的公司則受 AI 相關問題拖累，未兑現 AI 價值創造預期： 1）AI 與主業協同不足，難成第二增長曲線（如未轉化為用户或收入增量）； 2）前期 AI 投入過大推高成本，短期拖累利潤率。 例如 Salesforce FYQ1，與 AI 和 Agentforce 關聯度高的平台雲及數據分析板塊表現強勁，增速超預期約 5pct 和 4pct，且較上季明顯提速；但銷售、客服和營銷等傳統 IT 支出板塊增速環比放緩，均不及預期。此外，利潤或受 AI 前置投入影響，季度環比增幅放緩。年初至 8 月 11 日，其股價累計下跌 30.2%。 <img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://wpimg-wscn.awtmt.com/147f5bb1-49bb-4f71-a48f-e900f8a5de65.jpeg?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" width="1024" height="576" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://wpimg-wscn.awtmt.com/147f5bb1-49bb-4f71-a48f-e900f8a5de65.jpeg"/> <img 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original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://wpimg-wscn.awtmt.com/01dc3179-018e-42cd-90ed-97ccbab37745.jpeg"/> <img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://wpimg-wscn.awtmt.com/e64376d1-f01e-4b8a-b1b4-12e0d8468a3d.jpeg?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" width="1024" height="576" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://wpimg-wscn.awtmt.com/e64376d1-f01e-4b8a-b1b4-12e0d8468a3d.jpeg"/> <img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://wpimg-wscn.awtmt.com/f53a455c-84ca-437d-86e2-57bd8b46a8ef.jpeg?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" width="1024" height="576" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://wpimg-wscn.awtmt.com/f53a455c-84ca-437d-86e2-57bd8b46a8ef.jpeg"/> <img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://wpimg-wscn.awtmt.com/782dab97-4afe-421e-9269-bc98ce8a922c.jpeg?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" width="1024" height="576" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://wpimg-wscn.awtmt.com/782dab97-4afe-421e-9269-bc98ce8a922c.jpeg"/> <img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://wpimg-wscn.awtmt.com/4d630d60-5585-4666-80f1-55b1e39bc1f3.jpeg?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" width="1024" height="576" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://wpimg-wscn.awtmt.com/4d630d60-5585-4666-80f1-55b1e39bc1f3.jpeg"/> 本文作者：陳涵泊、李佩京，來源：AI 勝負手，原文標題：《美股 AI 應用：在加速落地中分化 | 中郵人工智能》風險提示及免責條款 市場有風險，投資需謹慎。本文不構成個人投資建議，也未考慮到個別用户特殊的投資目標、財務狀況或需要。用户應考慮本文中的任何意見、觀點或結論是否符合其特定狀況。據此投資，責任自負。</div>

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美股 AI 應用市場經歷三階段波動：第一階段（1 月至 2 月中）因超預期業績和技術變革，表現良好；第二階段（2 月中至 4 月初）因關税預期和美聯儲政策影響，估值下跌；第三階段（4 月初至今）則因初創公司 ARR 加速放量，行情分化。表現突出的公司包括 Palantir 和 Spotify，前者通過 AI 賦能提升業績，後者通過 AI 優化產品體驗實現提價。

- 美股 AI Agent 標的經歷三階段波動，表現各異。  
- 第一階段業績樂觀，第二階段因關税和降息預期影響估值。  
- 第三階段關注 AI 放量與提價對個股的影響。  