<p>沃倫·巴菲特的投資方法常被稱為價值投資，但他將自己的轉變歸功於查理·芒格，從尋找深度價值股票轉向尋找價格合理的優秀公司。然而，當出現深度價值機會時，巴菲特總是迅速反應。他真的是終極的逆向投資者，購買那些基本面強勁但在市場上被冷落的股票。</p>
<p>上週，他因 <strong>伯克希爾哈撒韋</strong>（BRK.A 0.07%）（BRK.B -0.07%）在 <strong>聯合健康集團</strong>（UNH 1.21%）的投資而引起了轟動。讓我們來看看是什麼吸引了他的關注和資金，以及為什麼這是一項典型的巴菲特投資。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84Mjk3MDIvYnVmZmV0dDEtdG1mLmpwZyZ3PTcwMA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84Mjk3MDIvYnVmZmV0dDEtdG1mLmpwZyZ3PTcwMA"/></p>
<p>圖片來源：The Motley Fool。</p>
<h2>等待這一時刻</h2>
<p>沃倫·巴菲特和他的團隊已經建立了一個價值近 2950 億美元的股票投資組合。這個組合充滿了價值股票，但巴菲特在購買股票時的重點是投資於優秀公司。換句話説，只有當股票由行業頂尖公司支撐時，它才是真正的價值。</p>
<p>如今的市場看起來被高估，股票交易接近歷史最高點。<strong>標準普爾 500</strong> 的 Shiller CAPE 比率，即經過通脹調整的市盈率，接近 38，略低於其 10 年高點。這正是在 2022 年市場暴跌之前。</p>
<p>這至少部分解釋了為什麼巴菲特一直持有創紀錄的現金水平。截至第二季度，伯克希爾的現金和國債持有量為 3440 億美元，略低於第一季度的金額，並且這是連續第 11 個季度的淨賣出。他在最近的股東大會上表示：“如果我們現在在國債中有 3350 億美元，我們寧願有一些條件，使我們能夠擁有大約 500 億美元之類的東西。但這並不是商業運作的方式。我們通過不想在任何時候都完全投資而賺了很多錢。”</p>
<p>儘管如此，伯克希爾哈撒韋在第二季度新增了六個新頭寸，並增加了另外六個頭寸。但聯合健康集團脱穎而出，因為它的投資額達到了 16 億美元。</p>
<h2>逆向投資</h2>
<p>巴菲特在最近的股東信中清楚地解釋了他的模型是如何運作的：</p>
<blockquote>
<p>我們擁有十幾個非常大且盈利豐厚的企業的小部分股份，這些企業都是家喻户曉的名字，如 <strong>蘋果</strong>、<strong>美國運通</strong>、<strong>可口可樂</strong> 和 <strong>穆迪</strong>。這些公司中的許多在其運營所需的淨有形資產上獲得非常高的回報……非常偶爾，它們以便宜的價格出售……通常，沒有什麼看起來令人信服；我們很少發現自己深陷機會之中。</p>
</blockquote>
<p>他還多次讚揚即將上任的首席執行官格雷格·阿貝爾在這種時候果斷行動。巴菲特過去多次成功地這樣做。一個很好的近期例子是，伯克希爾哈撒韋在 2019 年底購買了 <strong>克羅格</strong> 的股票。它是一個行業領導者，進入門檻高，始終有需求，市盈率降到了大約 6。今天，這個市盈率是 19，股票幾乎翻了三倍。</p>
<h2>優秀的股票，深度價值</h2>
<p>聯合健康是一家醫療巨頭。它是美國銷售額排名前五的公司之一，僅次於 <strong>亞馬遜</strong>。這已經使它進入了巴菲特的投資範圍。</p>
<p>他也是金融和保險公司的粉絲，因為一般來説，這種模式帶來了大量不一定被花費的錢——對於金融公司如銀行，這以存款的形式存在，而對於保險公司，則以保費的形式存在。保險公司可以投資其保費，並在未支付的索賠上獲得高額利潤，這符合巴菲特對那些不需要花費大量資金就能賺取大量資金的公司的興趣。</p>
<p>最近，聯合健康面臨了一些問題，包括首席執行官更換和利潤未能達到分析師預期。然而，保險公司有時會在成本上升之前落後於市場，無法提高保費。它現在正在這樣做。但收入以健康的速度增長，第二季度同比增長 13%。它的盈利能力也很強，預計全年每股收益（EPS）為 16 美元。</p>
<p>聯合健康的股票在過去一年中暴跌了 47%，市盈率為 13，是十年來的最低水平。隨着價格的暴跌，股息收益率飆升至該股票通常未見的高度。今天，它的股息收益率為 2.8%，以這個更高的收益率獲得將為伯克希爾哈撒韋帶來多年的現金收益。</p>
<p>換句話説，這是巴菲特保存現金以便在能夠迅速出手時購買的罕見機會。</p>

聯合健康

<p>沃倫·巴菲特在聯合健康集團進行了重大投資，收購了 16 億美元的股份。儘管當前市場高企，巴菲特的策略仍然專注於以合理價格購買優秀公司，而聯合健康憑藉其強勁的基本面和 13 的市盈率，展現出深度價值的機會。過去一年，該股票下跌了 47%，導致其高達 2.8% 的股息收益率。巴菲特的投資方法強調在市場低迷時的耐心和戰略性買入，這與他成功的逆向投資歷史相一致</p>

<p>Warren Buffett's investing method is often touted as being in the value camp, but he credits Charlie Munger for changing his tune, from looking for deep-value stocks to finding great companies at fair prices. However, when a deep-value opportunity presents itself, Buffett is quick on the uptake. He's really the ultimate contrarian investor, buying stocks that have strong fundamentals that are on the outs with the market.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>沃倫·巴菲特的投資方法常被稱為價值投資，但他將自己的轉變歸功於查理·芒格，從尋找深度價值股票轉向尋找價格合理的優秀公司。然而，當出現深度價值機會時，巴菲特總是迅速反應。他真的是終極的逆向投資者，購買那些基本面強勁但在市場上被冷落的股票。</p>
</div><p>He made a splash last week with the news that <strong>Berkshire Hathaway</strong>(BRK.A 0.07%) (BRK.B -0.07%) took a position in <strong>UnitedHealth Group</strong>(UNH 1.21%). Let's take a look at what attracted his attention and dollars, and why this is the ultimate Buffett play.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>上週，他因 <strong>伯克希爾哈撒韋</strong>（BRK.A 0.07%）（BRK.B -0.07%）在 <strong>聯合健康集團</strong>（UNH 1.21%）的投資而引起了轟動。讓我們來看看是什麼吸引了他的關注和資金，以及為什麼這是一項典型的巴菲特投資。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84Mjk3MDIvYnVmZmV0dDEtdG1mLmpwZyZ3PTcwMA" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F829702%2Fbuffett1-tmf.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: The Motley Fool.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>圖片來源：The Motley Fool。</p>
</div><h2>Waiting for this moment</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>等待這一時刻</h2>
</div><p>Warren Buffett and his team have built up an equity portfolio worth nearly $295 billion at today's prices. It's chock-full of value stocks, but Buffett's focus when buying stocks is investing in great companies. In other words, it's only a real value if the stock is underpinned by a top industry player.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>沃倫·巴菲特和他的團隊已經建立了一個價值近 2950 億美元的股票投資組合。這個組合充滿了價值股票，但巴菲特在購買股票時的重點是投資於優秀公司。換句話説，只有當股票由行業頂尖公司支撐時，它才是真正的價值。</p>
</div><p>Today's market looks inflated, with stocks trading near record highs. The <strong>S&amp;P 500</strong> Shiller CAPE ratio, which is the P/E ratio cyclically adjusted for inflation, is close to 38, or right below its 10-year high. That was right before the market plunged in 2022.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如今的市場看起來被高估，股票交易接近歷史最高點。<strong>標準普爾 500</strong> 的 Shiller CAPE 比率，即經過通脹調整的市盈率，接近 38，略低於其 10 年高點。這正是在 2022 年市場暴跌之前。</p>
</div><p>That explains, at least in part, why Buffett's been holding onto record levels of cash. Berkshire's cash and Treasury bill holdings sit at $344 billion as of the second quarter, slightly below the first-quarter amount, and it was the 11th straight quarter of net selling. &#34;If we've got $335 billion now in Treasuries, we would rather have conditions that are developed where we would have, like, $50 billion or something like that,&#34; he said at the recent shareholders' meeting. &#34;But that just isn't the way the business works. And we have made a lot of money by not wanting to be fully invested at all times.&#34;</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這至少部分解釋了為什麼巴菲特一直持有創紀錄的現金水平。截至第二季度，伯克希爾的現金和國債持有量為 3440 億美元，略低於第一季度的金額，並且這是連續第 11 個季度的淨賣出。他在最近的股東大會上表示：“如果我們現在在國債中有 3350 億美元，我們寧願有一些條件，使我們能夠擁有大約 500 億美元之類的東西。但這並不是商業運作的方式。我們通過不想在任何時候都完全投資而賺了很多錢。”</p>
</div><p>Still, Berkshire Hathaway took six new positions in the second quarter, in addition to increasing six others. But UnitedHealth Group stands out because it took a huge position, worth $1.6 billion.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>儘管如此，伯克希爾哈撒韋在第二季度新增了六個新頭寸，並增加了另外六個頭寸。但聯合健康集團脱穎而出，因為它的投資額達到了 16 億美元。</p>
</div><h2>The contrarian play</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>逆向投資</h2>
</div><p>Buffett explained pretty clearly how his model works in the most recent shareholders' letter:</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>巴菲特在最近的股東信中清楚地解釋了他的模型是如何運作的：</p>
</div><blockquote>
<p>We own a small percentage of a dozen or so very large and highly profitable businesses with household names such as <strong>Apple</strong>, <strong>American Express</strong>, <strong>Coca-Cola</strong>, and <strong>Moody's</strong>. Many of these companies earn very high returns on the net tangible equity required for their operations...very occasionally, they sell at bargain prices...Often, nothing looks compelling; very infrequently, we find ourselves knee-deep in opportunities.</p>
</blockquote>
<div class="lb-trans"><blockquote>
<p>我們擁有十幾個非常大且盈利豐厚的企業的小部分股份，這些企業都是家喻户曉的名字，如 <strong>蘋果</strong>、<strong>美國運通</strong>、<strong>可口可樂</strong> 和 <strong>穆迪</strong>。這些公司中的許多在其運營所需的淨有形資產上獲得非常高的回報……非常偶爾，它們以便宜的價格出售……通常，沒有什麼看起來令人信服；我們很少發現自己深陷機會之中。</p>
</blockquote>
</div><p>He has also praised incoming CEO Greg Abel several times for acting decisively at such times. Buffett has done this many times successfully in the past. One excellent, recent example is when Berkshire Hathaway bought <strong>Kroger</strong> stock in late 2019. It's the industry leader in a space with high barriers to entry that will always be in demand, and it had fallen to a P/E ratio of around 6. Today, that's 19, and the stock has almost tripled.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>他還多次讚揚即將上任的首席執行官格雷格·阿貝爾在這種時候果斷行動。巴菲特過去多次成功地這樣做。一個很好的近期例子是，伯克希爾哈撒韋在 2019 年底購買了 <strong>克羅格</strong> 的股票。它是一個行業領導者，進入門檻高，始終有需求，市盈率降到了大約 6。今天，這個市盈率是 19，股票幾乎翻了三倍。</p>
</div><h2>Great stock, deep value</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>優秀的股票，深度價值</h2>
</div><p>UnitedHealth is a healthcare giant. It's one of the top-five companies in the U.S. by sales, behind <strong>Amazon</strong>. That already put it in Buffett's wheelhouse.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>聯合健康是一家醫療巨頭。它是美國銷售額排名前五的公司之一，僅次於 <strong>亞馬遜</strong>。這已經使它進入了巴菲特的投資範圍。</p>
</div><p>He's also a fan of financial and insurance companies, since in general, the model brings in a lot of money that doesn't necessarily get spent -- for financial companies like banks, that's in the form of deposits, while for insurers, that's in the form of premiums. The insurance company can invest its premiums and make high profits on whatever isn't getting paid out as claims, and it fits Buffett's interest in companies that don't have to spend a lot of money to make a lot of money.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>他也是金融和保險公司的粉絲，因為一般來説，這種模式帶來了大量不一定被花費的錢——對於金融公司如銀行，這以存款的形式存在，而對於保險公司，則以保費的形式存在。保險公司可以投資其保費，並在未支付的索賠上獲得高額利潤，這符合巴菲特對那些不需要花費大量資金就能賺取大量資金的公司的興趣。</p>
</div><p>There have been a number of issues plaguing UnitedHealth recently, including a CEO switch and profits not keeping up with analyst expectations. However, insurance companies sometimes fall behind the curve as costs rise before they can raise premiums. It's doing that now. But revenue is growing at a healthy rate, up 13% year over year in the second quarter. It's also highly profitable, expecting $16 in full-year earnings per share (EPS).</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>最近，聯合健康面臨了一些問題，包括首席執行官更換和利潤未能達到分析師預期。然而，保險公司有時會在成本上升之前落後於市場，無法提高保費。它現在正在這樣做。但收入以健康的速度增長，第二季度同比增長 13%。它的盈利能力也很強，預計全年每股收益（EPS）為 16 美元。</p>
</div><p>UnitedHealth stock has plunged 47% over the past year and trades at a P/E ratio of 13, its lowest levels in a decade. As the price has plummeted, the dividend yield has rocketed to heights not usually seen for this stock. Today it sits at 2.8%, and getting it at this higher yield will bring cash benefits for Berkshire Hathaway for years.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>聯合健康的股票在過去一年中暴跌了 47%，市盈率為 13，是十年來的最低水平。隨着價格的暴跌，股息收益率飆升至該股票通常未見的高度。今天，它的股息收益率為 2.8%，以這個更高的收益率獲得將為伯克希爾哈撒韋帶來多年的現金收益。</p>
</div><p>In other words, this is the rare opportunity Buffett saves his cash to buy when he can quickly pounce.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>換句話説，這是巴菲特保存現金以便在能夠迅速出手時購買的罕見機會。</p>
</div>

這是沃倫·巴菲特期待已久的機會