<p>從 2000 年 3 月到 2002 年 10 月，納斯達克指數下跌了 76%，降至 1,139 點。這被稱為互聯網泡沫崩潰。今天類似的重置將使市場下跌 16,000 點，降至 5,000 點。如果再次發生這樣的情況，可能會有幾個觸發因素：類似大蕭條的經濟崩潰、對股票嚴重高估的認知，或是惡性通貨膨脹。</p>
<ul>
<li>像互聯網時代那樣的市場崩潰將使納斯達克今天下跌 16,000 點。</li>
<li>然而，今年有一個重要的不同之處。</li>
<li>參加這個測驗，看看你是否在退休的軌道上。（贊助）</li>
</ul>
<p>互聯網泡沫崩潰的異常之處在於，美國經濟是健康的。2000 年的國內生產總值為 10.3 萬億美元，2002 年接近 11 萬億美元。宏觀經濟因素並不是導致市場下跌的原因。</p>
<p>在互聯網泡沫時期，首次公開募股（IPO）可以以其初始估值的三倍開盤。一些最大的公司在一年內就未能維持運營。最著名的包括 theGlobe.com、Webvan、eToys 和 Infospace。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://247wallst.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/01/Follow-Our-500000-AI-Portfolio-3.jpg?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://247wallst.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/01/Follow-Our-500000-AI-Portfolio-3.jpg"/></p>
<p>現在的巨頭股票價格也大幅下跌。微軟公司（NASDAQ: MSFT）從 2000 年初的 59 美元下跌至 2002 年初的 29 美元。今天，它的交易價格為 505 美元。亞馬遜公司（NASDAQ: AMZN）在同一時期從 4 美元跌至 0.55 美元。今天的交易價格為 221 美元。事實上，這兩家公司在此期間並沒有接近崩潰。實際上，它們的業務相對健康。</p>
<p>在互聯網泡沫崩潰期間，許多自成立以來就虧損的公司在首次公開募股後仍然持續虧損，並且在它們經營的每一天都在虧損，直到耗盡資金。在數百個案例中，通過首次公開募股籌集的資金在不到一年內就被耗盡。</p>
<h2>今年有所不同</h2>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://247wallst.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/03/imageForEntry11-6mS.jpg?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://247wallst.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/03/imageForEntry11-6mS.jpg"/></p>
<p>然而，今年有一個重要的不同之處。28 倍的前瞻性市盈率表明股市價格昂貴。雖然這確實很高，但並不是。它可能比歷史平均水平高出 20%。</p>
<p>基於人工智能（AI）的估值推動了一些主要股票的上漲。微軟的股價比 2025 年的低點高出近 40%。然而，自 2022 年底以來，它的股價已經翻了一番。大部分原因是市場預期人工智能將使其收入達到前所未有的水平。人工智能股票已經開始重置。如果對人工智能增長的預測顯著放緩，像微軟這樣的公司的股票可能會下跌一半。依賴人工智能作為主要收入增長來源的小公司可能會下跌得更多。</p>
<p>對納斯達克的最終挑戰是由關税驅動的惡性通貨膨脹。如果消費者物價指數（CPI）以卡特總統時期的速度增長，將會摧毀經濟。1980 年第一季度的 CPI 超過 18%。</p>
<p>如果納斯達克發生劇烈重置，那將不是意外。</p>
<p>億萬富翁拉里·芬克表示金融系統 “安全穩健”——他是對的嗎？</p>
<p>納斯達克在互聯網泡沫崩潰中將下跌 16,000 點的文章最初出現在 24/7 Wall St.。</p>

微軟

<p>潛在的市場崩盤可能類似於互聯網泡沫時代，納斯達克指數可能下跌 16,000 點，降至 5,000 點。與過去不同的是，目前的估值受到人工智能預期的驅動，前瞻市盈率為 28，顯示市場相對昂貴。如果人工智能的增長預期放緩，微軟等主要股票可能會出現顯著下跌。此外，由關税引發的超級通貨膨脹構成威脅，令人想起 1980 年代。互聯網泡沫崩盤的特點是公司在首次公開募股後虧損，如果經濟狀況惡化，這種情況可能會重演</p>

<p>From March 2000 to October 2002, the Nasdaq dropped 76% to 1,139. It was called the dot-com crash. A similar reset today would take the market down by 16,000 points to 5,000. If it were to happen again, there would be one of a few triggers: a Great Recession-like economic collapse, a perception that stocks had become wildly overvalued, or hyperinflation.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>從 2000 年 3 月到 2002 年 10 月，納斯達克指數下跌了 76%，降至 1,139 點。這被稱為互聯網泡沫崩潰。今天類似的重置將使市場下跌 16,000 點，降至 5,000 點。如果再次發生這樣的情況，可能會有幾個觸發因素：類似大蕭條的經濟崩潰、對股票嚴重高估的認知，或是惡性通貨膨脹。</p>
</div><ul>
<li>A market crash like in the dot-com era would take the Nasdaq down by 16,000 points today.</li>
<li>This year has one important difference, however.</li>
<li>Take this quiz to see if you’re on track to retire. (sponsored)</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li>像互聯網時代那樣的市場崩潰將使納斯達克今天下跌 16,000 點。</li>
<li>然而，今年有一個重要的不同之處。</li>
<li>參加這個測驗，看看你是否在退休的軌道上。（贊助）</li>
</ul>
</div><p>The unusual thing about the dot-com crash was that the U.S. economy was healthy. Gross domestic product was $10.3 trillion in 2000 and almost $11 trillion in 2002. Macroeconomic factors are not what brought the market down.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>互聯網泡沫崩潰的異常之處在於，美國經濟是健康的。2000 年的國內生產總值為 10.3 萬億美元，2002 年接近 11 萬億美元。宏觀經濟因素並不是導致市場下跌的原因。</p>
</div><p>Initial public offerings (IPOs) during the dot-com period could open at triple their initial valuation. Some of the largest did not stay in business more than a year. The most well-known were theGlobe.com, Webvan, eToys, and Infospace.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在互聯網泡沫時期，首次公開募股（IPO）可以以其初始估值的三倍開盤。一些最大的公司在一年內就未能維持運營。最著名的包括 theGlobe.com、Webvan、eToys 和 Infospace。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://247wallst.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/01/Follow-Our-500000-AI-Portfolio-3.jpg" alt="" original-src="https://247wallst.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/01/Follow-Our-500000-AI-Portfolio-3.jpg"/></p>
<p>The price of stocks that are now megacaps dropped sharply as well. Microsoft Corp. (NASDAQ: MSFT) declined from $59 in early 2000 to $29 in early 2002. Today, it trades at $505. Amazon.com Inc. (NASDAQ: AMZN) fell from $4 to $0.55 over the same period. It trades at $221 today. The fact of the matter is that neither company came near to a collapse during the period. In fact, their businesses were relatively healthy.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>現在的巨頭股票價格也大幅下跌。微軟公司（NASDAQ: MSFT）從 2000 年初的 59 美元下跌至 2002 年初的 29 美元。今天，它的交易價格為 505 美元。亞馬遜公司（NASDAQ: AMZN）在同一時期從 4 美元跌至 0.55 美元。今天的交易價格為 221 美元。事實上，這兩家公司在此期間並沒有接近崩潰。實際上，它們的業務相對健康。</p>
</div><p>What happened during the dot-com crash is that many companies that had lost money since their founding continued to lose money until after their IPOs, and did so every day they stayed in business until they ran out of money. In hundreds of cases, money raised by IPOs was buried in less than a year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在互聯網泡沫崩潰期間，許多自成立以來就虧損的公司在首次公開募股後仍然持續虧損，並且在它們經營的每一天都在虧損，直到耗盡資金。在數百個案例中，通過首次公開募股籌集的資金在不到一年內就被耗盡。</p>
</div><h2>This Year Is Different</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>今年有所不同</h2>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://247wallst.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/03/imageForEntry11-6mS.jpg" alt="" original-src="https://247wallst.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/03/imageForEntry11-6mS.jpg"/></p>
<p>This year has one important difference, however. A forward multiple of 28 signals that the stock market is rich. While this is rich, it is not. It might be 20% higher than the historic average.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，今年有一個重要的不同之處。28 倍的前瞻性市盈率表明股市價格昂貴。雖然這確實很高，但並不是。它可能比歷史平均水平高出 20%。</p>
</div><p>Valuations based on artificial intelligence (AI) have driven up some major stocks. Microsoft is almost 40% higher than it was at the 2025 low. However, it has more than doubled since late 2022. Much of this is the expectation that AI will drive its revenue higher than ever before. AI stocks have already begun to reset. If the forecast for AI growth slows considerably, the stocks of companies like Microsoft could drop by half. Smaller companies that rely on AI for most of their revenue growth could drop more.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>基於人工智能（AI）的估值推動了一些主要股票的上漲。微軟的股價比 2025 年的低點高出近 40%。然而，自 2022 年底以來，它的股價已經翻了一番。大部分原因是市場預期人工智能將使其收入達到前所未有的水平。人工智能股票已經開始重置。如果對人工智能增長的預測顯著放緩，像微軟這樣的公司的股票可能會下跌一半。依賴人工智能作為主要收入增長來源的小公司可能會下跌得更多。</p>
</div><p>The final challenge to the Nasdaq is tariff-driven hyperinflation. If the Consumer Price Index (CPI) were to grow at the rate it did under President Carter, it would decimate the economy. The CPI was over 18% in the first quarter of 1980.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>對納斯達克的最終挑戰是由關税驅動的惡性通貨膨脹。如果消費者物價指數（CPI）以卡特總統時期的速度增長，將會摧毀經濟。1980 年第一季度的 CPI 超過 18%。</p>
</div><p>If the Nasdaq has a hard reset, it won’t be an accident.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如果納斯達克發生劇烈重置，那將不是意外。</p>
</div><p>Billionaire Larry Fink Says Financial Systems Are ‘Safe and Sound’—Is He Right?</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>億萬富翁拉里·芬克表示金融系統 “安全穩健”——他是對的嗎？</p>
</div><p>The post Nasdaq Would Drop 16,000 in Dot-Com Era Market Crash appeared first on 24/7 Wall St..</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>納斯達克在互聯網泡沫崩潰中將下跌 16,000 點的文章最初出現在 24/7 Wall St.。</p>
</div>

Nasdaq Would Drop 16,000 in Dot-Com Era Market Crash

- 納斯達克在 2000 年至 2002 年間下跌 76%，稱為互聯網泡沫崩潰。  
- 如果今天發生類似崩潰，納斯達克將下跌 16,000 點至 5,000 點。  
- 當前市場估值高，AI 驅動的股票可能面臨大幅下跌風險。  

納斯達克指數在互聯網泡沫時代的市場崩潰中可能會跌至 16,000 點