<p><strong>家得寶</strong>(HD 3.84%) 是歷史上最成功的股票之一。該股票於 1981 年首次公開募股（IPO），距離其成立僅兩年。如今，它在美國、加拿大和墨西哥運營着超過 2300 家門店。</p>
<p>然而，在北美以外的擴張失敗後，它每月新開門店的數量少於一家。隨着其當前市場接近飽和，預測家得寶股票在未來五年的表現是值得的。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MzAzOTIvaGQuanBnJnc9NzAw?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MzAzOTIvaGQuanBnJnc9NzAw"/></p>
<p>圖片來源：家得寶。</p>
<h2>家得寶的現狀</h2>
<p>家得寶是第一大家居改善零售商。平均每個門店為進行家庭項目的 DIY 愛好者提供服務，庫存約 35,000 種產品。</p>
<p>由於家得寶遠大於普通五金店，它成為了家居改善的一站式購物中心，改變了美國人購買此類商品的方式。在其同行中，只有 <strong>Lowe's</strong>，美國另一家主要的家居改善零售商，能夠接近完全競爭，儘管像 <strong>Floor &amp; Decor</strong> 或 <strong>Tractor Supply</strong> 這樣的連鎖店在特定領域也有競爭。</p>
<p>儘管如此，家得寶最令人擔憂的威脅可能是其成功。大約 90% 的美國人口居住在距離其門店 10 英里以內。在其在北美以外的擴張努力失敗後，家得寶似乎在超額增長方面幾乎沒有選擇。</p>
<p>除非它能找到在新市場取得成功的方法，否則這種動態不太可能改變。因此，家得寶在過去五年中表現不及 <strong>標準普爾 500 指數</strong> 也就不足為奇了，即使考慮到股息。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/19a403608adcff93c4d3a62b6a5c1f03.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/19a403608adcff93c4d3a62b6a5c1f03.png"/></p>
<p>HD 總回報水平數據來自 YCharts。</p>
<h2>家得寶的財務狀況</h2>
<p>與企業的現狀一樣，財務狀況反映出一家成熟企業的特徵。在 2025 年上半年，收入為 850 億美元，比 2024 年同期增長了 7%。</p>
<p>不幸的是，在此期間，其銷售成本和運營費用的增長速度超過了收入。因此，運營收入在該期間僅增長了 0.6%。此外，利息收入下降和利息支出上升使得 2025 年前兩個季度的淨收入降至 80 億美元，比去年同期減少了 2.2%。</p>
<p>此外，第三季度的預測顯示銷售增長為 2.8%。儘管如此，即使家得寶超出該預期，環比增長放緩似乎也是不可避免的。</p>
<p>相反，股息無疑已成為持有家得寶股票的最佳理由。其首次股息是在 1987 年，金額為每股約六分之一美分的拆分調整年支付額。從那時起，經過多次增加，目前的年支付額已達到每股 9.20 美元。這相當於 2.25% 的股息收益率，遠高於標準普爾 500 指數的 1.2% 平均水平。</p>
<p>該支付額每年大多數情況下都會增加，使其對收入投資者更具吸引力。此外，這一記錄使得長期股東有充分理由繼續持有該股票，因為股息收益率將相對於他們的初始投資而上升。</p>
<p>挑戰可能出現在公司的市盈率（P/E）上。該收益倍數略高於 27，低於標準普爾 500 指數的 30 的平均水平。儘管如此，考慮到公司的緩慢增長，投資者可能會認為這一估值過高，可能促使新投資者尋求其他地方的股票和股息回報。</p>
<h2>家得寶在五年內的展望</h2>
<p>在未來五年中，投資者應期待股息上升和更高的回報，但不足以超越標準普爾 500 指數。</p>
<p>鑑於其在家居改善領域的角色，該公司和股票可能會受益於緩慢而穩定的回報。這應該會逐漸推動股票及其股息隨時間上升。</p>
<p>不幸的是，家得寶並未為其投資者提供超出通貨膨脹和人口增長的有意義的增長前景。這種情況使得超越市場變得困難，給投資者留下了很少的理由去以 27 倍的收益購買一隻回報低於標準普爾 500 指數的股票。</p>
<p>最終，持續上升的股息應繼續為零售股票的股東提供更多的好處，使他們幾乎沒有理由出售。然而，可能的表現不佳意味着投資者可能應該將新資本投入到其他地方。</p>

家得寶

<p>家得寶，作為領先的家居改善零售商，由於市場飽和和擴張失敗面臨增長挑戰。儘管在 2025 年初收入增長了 7%，但成本上升導致營業收入僅增長了 0.6%。在過去五年中，該股票的表現低於標準普爾 500 指數，市盈率為 27，低於標準普爾的平均水平。投資者可以期待股息上升，但增長前景有限，這表明新資本可能更適合投資於其他地方</p>

<p><strong>Home Depot</strong>(HD 3.84%) has one of the most successful stocks in history. The stock launched its initial public offering (IPO) in 1981, just two years after its founding. Today, it operates over 2,300 stores in the U.S., Canada, and Mexico.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>家得寶</strong>(HD 3.84%) 是歷史上最成功的股票之一。該股票於 1981 年首次公開募股（IPO），距離其成立僅兩年。如今，它在美國、加拿大和墨西哥運營着超過 2300 家門店。</p>
</div><p>However, after expansion outside of North America failed, it has opened fewer than one new location per month. With its current markets close to saturation, it's worth predicting where Home Depot stock will be over the next five years.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，在北美以外的擴張失敗後，它每月新開門店的數量少於一家。隨着其當前市場接近飽和，預測家得寶股票在未來五年的表現是值得的。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MzAzOTIvaGQuanBnJnc9NzAw" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F830392%2Fhd.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Home Depot.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>圖片來源：家得寶。</p>
</div><h2>The state of Home Depot</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>家得寶的現狀</h2>
</div><p>Home Depot is the No. 1 home improvement retailer. The average location serves do-it-yourselfers working on projects around the home, stocking around 35,000 products.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>家得寶是第一大家居改善零售商。平均每個門店為進行家庭項目的 DIY 愛好者提供服務，庫存約 35,000 種產品。</p>
</div><p>Since Home Depot was far larger than the average hardware store, it made itself a one-stop shop for home improvement, changing the way Americans shopped for such items. Of its peers, only <strong>Lowe's</strong>, the other major home improvement retailer in the U.S., comes close to fully competing, though chains like <strong>Floor &amp; Decor</strong> or <strong>Tractor Supply</strong> compete in specific areas.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>由於家得寶遠大於普通五金店，它成為了家居改善的一站式購物中心，改變了美國人購買此類商品的方式。在其同行中，只有 <strong>Lowe's</strong>，美國另一家主要的家居改善零售商，能夠接近完全競爭，儘管像 <strong>Floor &amp; Decor</strong> 或 <strong>Tractor Supply</strong> 這樣的連鎖店在特定領域也有競爭。</p>
</div><p>Nonetheless, Home Depot's most concerning threat may be its success. Approximately 90% of the U.S. population lives within 10 miles of one of its locations. Amid its failed expansion efforts outside of North America, Home Depot appears to have few options for outsized growth.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>儘管如此，家得寶最令人擔憂的威脅可能是其成功。大約 90% 的美國人口居住在距離其門店 10 英里以內。在其在北美以外的擴張努力失敗後，家得寶似乎在超額增長方面幾乎沒有選擇。</p>
</div><p>Unless it can find a way to succeed in new markets, that dynamic is unlikely to change. Thus, it will probably come as little surprise that Home Depot has underperformed the <strong>S&amp;P 500</strong> over the previous five years, even when accounting for dividends.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>除非它能找到在新市場取得成功的方法，否則這種動態不太可能改變。因此，家得寶在過去五年中表現不及 <strong>標準普爾 500 指數</strong> 也就不足為奇了，即使考慮到股息。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/19a403608adcff93c4d3a62b6a5c1f03.png" alt="" original-src="https://media.ycharts.com/charts/19a403608adcff93c4d3a62b6a5c1f03.png"/></p>
<p>HD Total Return Level data by YCharts.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>HD 總回報水平數據來自 YCharts。</p>
</div><h2>Home Depot's financials</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>家得寶的財務狀況</h2>
</div><p>Like the state of the enterprise, the financials reflect a mature business. In the first half of 2025, revenue of $85 billion grew 7% compared to the same period in 2024.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>與企業的現狀一樣，財務狀況反映出一家成熟企業的特徵。在 2025 年上半年，收入為 850 億美元，比 2024 年同期增長了 7%。</p>
</div><p>Unfortunately, both its costs of sales and operating expenses rose faster than revenue during that time frame. Consequently, operating income grew by only 0.6% for the period. Also, falling interest income and rising interest expenses helped take its net income for the first two quarters of 2025 to $8 billion, a 2.2% reduction versus year-ago levels.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>不幸的是，在此期間，其銷售成本和運營費用的增長速度超過了收入。因此，運營收入在該期間僅增長了 0.6%。此外，利息收入下降和利息支出上升使得 2025 年前兩個季度的淨收入降至 80 億美元，比去年同期減少了 2.2%。</p>
</div><p>Additionally, third-quarter projections call for sales growth of 2.8%. Still, even if Home Depot beats that estimate, a sequential growth slowdown appears likely.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>此外，第三季度的預測顯示銷售增長為 2.8%。儘管如此，即使家得寶超出該預期，環比增長放緩似乎也是不可避免的。</p>
</div><p>Instead, dividends have arguably become the best reason to own Home Depot stock. Its first dividend was in 1987, and it amounted to a split-adjusted annual payout of approximately one-sixth of one cent per share. Since that time, numerous increases have taken its current payout to $9.20 per share yearly. That amounts to a dividend yield of 2.25%, well above the 1.2% average for the S&amp;P 500.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>相反，股息無疑已成為持有家得寶股票的最佳理由。其首次股息是在 1987 年，金額為每股約六分之一美分的拆分調整年支付額。從那時起，經過多次增加，目前的年支付額已達到每股 9.20 美元。這相當於 2.25% 的股息收益率，遠高於標準普爾 500 指數的 1.2% 平均水平。</p>
</div><p>The payout also rises most years, making it more appealing to income investors. Moreover, that track record gives longtime shareholders good reason to stay with the stock since dividend yields will rise relative to their original investment.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>該支付額每年大多數情況下都會增加，使其對收入投資者更具吸引力。此外，這一記錄使得長期股東有充分理由繼續持有該股票，因為股息收益率將相對於他們的初始投資而上升。</p>
</div><p>Where the challenge may come is with the company's price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio. That earnings multiple of just over 27 is below the S&amp;P 500's average of 30. Nonetheless, considering the company's slow growth, investors may perceive that valuation as pricey, possibly prompting new investors to seek stock and dividend returns elsewhere.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>挑戰可能出現在公司的市盈率（P/E）上。該收益倍數略高於 27，低於標準普爾 500 指數的 30 的平均水平。儘管如此，考慮到公司的緩慢增長，投資者可能會認為這一估值過高，可能促使新投資者尋求其他地方的股票和股息回報。</p>
</div><h2>Home Depot in five years</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>家得寶在五年內的展望</h2>
</div><p>Over the next five years, investors should expect rising dividends and higher returns, but not enough to beat the S&amp;P 500.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在未來五年中，投資者應期待股息上升和更高的回報，但不足以超越標準普爾 500 指數。</p>
</div><p>Given its role in the home improvement space, the company and stock will likely benefit from slow, steady returns. This should gradually take the stock and its dividend higher over time.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>鑑於其在家居改善領域的角色，該公司和股票可能會受益於緩慢而穩定的回報。這應該會逐漸推動股票及其股息隨時間上升。</p>
</div><p>Unfortunately, Home Depot is not offering its investors meaningful growth prospects beyond inflation and the increase in population. Such conditions make it difficult to beat the market, giving investors few reasons to pay 27 times earnings for a stock that delivers lower returns than the S&amp;P 500.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>不幸的是，家得寶並未為其投資者提供超出通貨膨脹和人口增長的有意義的增長前景。這種情況使得超越市場變得困難，給投資者留下了很少的理由去以 27 倍的收益購買一隻回報低於標準普爾 500 指數的股票。</p>
</div><p>Ultimately, the rising dividend should continue to offer increased benefits to shareholders in the retail stock, leaving them with little reason to sell. However, a likely underperformance means investors should probably put new capital to work elsewhere.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>最終，持續上升的股息應繼續為零售股票的股東提供更多的好處，使他們幾乎沒有理由出售。然而，可能的表現不佳意味着投資者可能應該將新資本投入到其他地方。</p>
</div>

家得寶的股票能否在未來五年內跑贏市場？