<p>隨着沃倫·巴菲特即將迎來 95 歲生日，他仍然是全球最受尊敬的投資經理之一。這一點在 <strong>伯克希爾哈撒韋</strong>(BRK.A -0.13%)(BRK.B -0.06%) 的股票對他將於明年 1 月 1 日辭去首席執行官職務的消息的反應中顯而易見。</p>
<p>自那時以來，股價下跌了約 10%，幾乎完全是由於其估值倍數的收縮。顯然，投資者在沒有巴菲特掌舵的情況下，不願意為伯克希爾的運營和資產負債表支付那麼高的價格。</p>
<p>但投資者仍然有幾個月的時間可以關注巴菲特在伯克希爾公開交易的投資組合中的動向。該集團在第二季度繼續賣出股票，買入股票的數量少於賣出，已經連續 11 個季度淨賣出。<strong>蘋果</strong>(AAPL 1.21%) 和 <strong>美國銀行</strong>(BAC 2.55%) 再次被列入待售名單，但巴菲特向一隻被打壓的價值股投入了約 20 億美元，使其成為他過去一年中最大的購買之一。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84Mjk5ODQvYnVmZmV0dDExLXRtZi5qcGcmdz03MDA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="700" height="466" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84Mjk5ODQvYnVmZmV0dDExLXRtZi5qcGcmdz03MDA"/></p>
<p>圖片來源：The Motley Fool。</p>
<h2>削減大贏家</h2>
<p>伯克希爾對蘋果和美國銀行的投資為伯克希爾哈撒韋帶來了可觀的利潤。巴菲特在 5 月的年度會議上開玩笑説：“蒂姆·庫克為伯克希爾賺的錢比我賺的還多。” 但這些利潤在伯克希爾出售投資之前並不算真正的利潤，而巴菲特正在將伯克希爾的部分收益兑現。</p>
<p>巴菲特在第二季度出售了 2000 萬股蘋果和 2600 萬股美國銀行。這佔據了第二季度 690 億美元總股票銷售的很大一部分。總體而言，自 2023 年中以來，巴菲特已經處置了伯克希爾在蘋果中 69% 的股份，以及在美國銀行中 41% 的股份。</p>
<p>巴菲特最近出售的原因有幾個。</p>
<p>首先，巴菲特認為當前的税收環境對企業特別友好。伯克希爾在其收益上僅支付 21% 的税。這是自 1930 年代以來最低的企業税率。巴菲特認為這並不可持續，他正在利用這個機會。他甚至在 2024 年致股東的信中誇耀了伯克希爾的税單規模。</p>
<p>但僅僅為了（可能）在長期內節省税款而出售股票是沒有太大意義的。巴菲特的出售也可能受到兩隻股票估值的影響。蘋果股票的前瞻市盈率在大部分季度內介於 27 到 29 之間。這遠高於巴菲特在 2016 年為蘋果支付的個位數倍數。</p>
<p>同樣，美國銀行的股票看起來也很貴。該股票的價格與有形賬面價值的比率在第二季度一度超過 1.7。美國銀行持有的長期債券數量超過了平均水平，這在加息期間是一個障礙，但在降息期間則是一個好處。不幸的是，對於股東來説，降息的速度比預期慢，這影響了持有長期債券的超額收益。因此，自去年秋季以來，美國銀行的股票大多橫盤交易。</p>
<p>估值是巴菲特在當前市場中難以找到大量購買機會的一個重要原因。幾個估值指標表明當前市場被高估。但奧馬哈的先知在第二季度能夠找到一隻被打壓的價值股，將大量伯克希爾的現金投入其中。</p>
<h2>巴菲特正在購買的逆勢價值股</h2>
<p>過去一年中表現最差的市場板塊無疑是醫療保健。整個行業的股票都在下跌，但該行業最大的公司之一為巴菲特提供了一個將大量資金投入的重大機會：<strong>聯合健康集團</strong>(UNH 1.24%)。</p>
<p>聯合健康在過去一年中經歷了很多。消費者和投資者的情緒已經轉向對該公司的反對。這種情況因高利用率和不斷上升的護理成本對其財務結果造成壓力而加劇。聯合健康的淨利潤率在第二季度降至 3.1%，低於去年同期的 4.3%。管理層在 5 月撤回指引後也修訂了全年盈利預期。現在預計每股收益 “至少” 為 16 美元，低於 2024 年的 27.66 美元。</p>
<p>除此之外，該公司還因其醫療保險優勢計劃受到司法部的調查。作為全國最大的醫療保險優勢提供商，該調查可能導致數十億美元的罰款和追回的收入。</p>
<p>該股票遭受了嚴厲打擊，股價在 2024 年 7 月底和 8 月初下跌超過 60%。但考慮到聯合健康的競爭護城河仍然完好，這可能是股價下跌幅度過大。</p>
<p>聯合健康仍然是美國最大的管理醫療組織之一，其規模賦予了其顯著的優勢。更大的規模使其在談判中擁有更大的槓桿，幫助其保持價格不至於過快上漲。隨着成本的上升，聯合健康的處境比該領域的小公司要好得多。</p>
<p>其藥品福利管理部門 Optum Rx 也受益於規模和網絡效應。Optum 能夠比小型競爭對手談判出更好的藥品價格，這吸引了更多客户到其藥品福利管理中，從而進一步增強了其談判能力。</p>
<p>聯合健康還擁有穩健的資產負債表，現金儲備不斷增長（320 億美元），這應有助於其抵禦因司法部調查而產生的任何負面後果。它還具有在想要進一步積累資金時暫停股票回購的靈活性。79 億美元的債務在其可預測的保費收入產生的現金流不斷增長的情況下看起來是可控的。</p>
<p>該股票目前的交易價格約為 2026 年每股收益預期的 16 倍。考慮到管理層對每股收益年增長率在 13% 到 16% 之間的預期，這看起來現在是一個很好的價值。儘管面臨着重大風險，包括司法部的調查懸而未決、監管帶來一些收入阻力，以及醫療利用率仍然較高。但現在看來，這是一個在他人恐懼時貪婪的機會。</p>

伯克希爾哈撒韋-A

蘋果

聯合健康

伯克希爾哈撒韋-B

2 倍做多 AAPL ETF - GraniteShares

蘋果每日 1 倍做空 ETF - Direxion

蘋果每日 2 倍做多 ETF - Direxion

AAPX

AAPY

APLY

<p>沃倫·巴菲特正在出售伯克希爾哈撒韋在蘋果和美國銀行的重大股份，自 2023 年中以來分別減持了 69% 和 41%。這一賣出趨勢是連續 11 個季度淨賣出的結果，主要歸因於高估值和有利的税收條件。相反，巴菲特向聯合健康投資了約 20 億美元，這是一隻經歷了 60% 下跌的醫療股票，在其困境和持續調查中呈現出潛在的買入機會</p>

<p>As Warren Buffett approaches his 95th birthday, he remains one of the most well-respected investment managers in the world. That's readily evident in how <strong>Berkshire Hathaway</strong>(BRK.A -0.13%)(BRK.B -0.06%) shares reacted to the news that he would step down as CEO of the company starting Jan. 1 next year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>隨着沃倫·巴菲特即將迎來 95 歲生日，他仍然是全球最受尊敬的投資經理之一。這一點在 <strong>伯克希爾哈撒韋</strong>(BRK.A -0.13%)(BRK.B -0.06%) 的股票對他將於明年 1 月 1 日辭去首席執行官職務的消息的反應中顯而易見。</p>
</div><p>The stock has dropped about 10% since then, due almost entirely to its contracting valuation multiple. Seemingly, investors aren't willing to pay as much for Berkshire's operations and balance sheet without Buffett at the helm.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>自那時以來，股價下跌了約 10%，幾乎完全是由於其估值倍數的收縮。顯然，投資者在沒有巴菲特掌舵的情況下，不願意為伯克希爾的運營和資產負債表支付那麼高的價格。</p>
</div><p>But investors still have a few months left to follow Buffett's moves in Berkshire's publicly traded investment portfolio. The conglomerate continued to sell more stock than it bought in the second quarter, making it 11 straight quarters of net selling. <strong>Apple</strong>(AAPL 1.21%) and <strong>Bank of America</strong>(BAC 2.55%) were once again on the chopping block, but Buffett piled an estimated $2 billion into a beaten down value stock, making it one of his biggest purchases of the past year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但投資者仍然有幾個月的時間可以關注巴菲特在伯克希爾公開交易的投資組合中的動向。該集團在第二季度繼續賣出股票，買入股票的數量少於賣出，已經連續 11 個季度淨賣出。<strong>蘋果</strong>(AAPL 1.21%) 和 <strong>美國銀行</strong>(BAC 2.55%) 再次被列入待售名單，但巴菲特向一隻被打壓的價值股投入了約 20 億美元，使其成為他過去一年中最大的購買之一。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84Mjk5ODQvYnVmZmV0dDExLXRtZi5qcGcmdz03MDA" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F829984%2Fbuffett11-tmf.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: The Motley Fool.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>圖片來源：The Motley Fool。</p>
</div><h2>Trimming the big winners</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>削減大贏家</h2>
</div><p>Berkshire's investments in Apple and Bank of America have produced significant profits for Berkshire Hathaway. Buffett joked that &#34;Tim Cook has made Berkshire a lot more money than I've ever made&#34; at the company's annual meeting in May. But those profits aren't quite real until Berkshire sells the investments, and Buffett is taking a good portion of Berkshire's gains off the table.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>伯克希爾對蘋果和美國銀行的投資為伯克希爾哈撒韋帶來了可觀的利潤。巴菲特在 5 月的年度會議上開玩笑説：“蒂姆·庫克為伯克希爾賺的錢比我賺的還多。” 但這些利潤在伯克希爾出售投資之前並不算真正的利潤，而巴菲特正在將伯克希爾的部分收益兑現。</p>
</div><p>Buffett sold 20 million shares of Apple and 26 million shares of Bank of America in the second quarter. That was a big portion of the $6.9 billion in total stock sales for the second quarter. Overall, Buffett has disposed of 69% of Berkshire's stake in Apple since mid-2023 and 41% of its stake in Bank of America.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>巴菲特在第二季度出售了 2000 萬股蘋果和 2600 萬股美國銀行。這佔據了第二季度 690 億美元總股票銷售的很大一部分。總體而言，自 2023 年中以來，巴菲特已經處置了伯克希爾在蘋果中 69% 的股份，以及在美國銀行中 41% 的股份。</p>
</div><p>There are a couple of explanations for Buffett's recent selling.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>巴菲特最近出售的原因有幾個。</p>
</div><p>First, Buffett sees the current tax environment as particularly friendly for corporations. Berkshire pays just 21% in taxes on its earnings. That's the lowest corporate tax rate since the 1930s. Buffett doesn't think that's sustainable, and he's taking advantage of the opportunity while he can. He even bragged about the size of Berkshire's tax bill in his 2024 letter to shareholders.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>首先，巴菲特認為當前的税收環境對企業特別友好。伯克希爾在其收益上僅支付 21% 的税。這是自 1930 年代以來最低的企業税率。巴菲特認為這並不可持續，他正在利用這個機會。他甚至在 2024 年致股東的信中誇耀了伯克希爾的税單規模。</p>
</div><p>But it makes little sense to sell a stock just to (potentially) save on taxes in the long run. Buffett's selling is also likely motivated by the valuation of both stocks. The forward PE ratio of Apple stock sat between 27 and 29 for most of the quarter. That's well above the single-digit multiple Buffett paid for Apple in 2016.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但僅僅為了（可能）在長期內節省税款而出售股票是沒有太大意義的。巴菲特的出售也可能受到兩隻股票估值的影響。蘋果股票的前瞻市盈率在大部分季度內介於 27 到 29 之間。這遠高於巴菲特在 2016 年為蘋果支付的個位數倍數。</p>
</div><p>Likewise, Bank of America stock looks expensive as well. The stock's price to tangible book value climbed above 1.7 at one point in the second quarter. Bank of America holds more long-duration bonds than the average bank, which was a hindrance amid rate hikes, but it's a boon during rate cuts. Unfortunately for shareholders, rate cuts have come more slowly than anticipated, which has weighed on the outsized benefit of holding long-duration bonds. As such, Bank of America stock has mostly traded sideways since last fall.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>同樣，美國銀行的股票看起來也很貴。該股票的價格與有形賬面價值的比率在第二季度一度超過 1.7。美國銀行持有的長期債券數量超過了平均水平，這在加息期間是一個障礙，但在降息期間則是一個好處。不幸的是，對於股東來説，降息的速度比預期慢，這影響了持有長期債券的超額收益。因此，自去年秋季以來，美國銀行的股票大多橫盤交易。</p>
</div><p>Valuation is a big reason Buffett has been struggling to find a lot to buy in the current market. Several valuation indicators suggest the current market is overbought. But the Oracle of Omaha was able to find one beaten-down value stock to sink a significant amount of Berkshire's cash into during the second quarter.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>估值是巴菲特在當前市場中難以找到大量購買機會的一個重要原因。幾個估值指標表明當前市場被高估。但奧馬哈的先知在第二季度能夠找到一隻被打壓的價值股，將大量伯克希爾的現金投入其中。</p>
</div><h2>The contrarian value stock Buffett's buying</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>巴菲特正在購買的逆勢價值股</h2>
</div><p>By far the worst performing sector of the market over the past year has been healthcare. Stocks across the industry are down, but one of the biggest companies in the sector presented a big opportunity for Buffett to put a lot of money to work: <strong>UnitedHealth Group</strong>(UNH 1.24%).</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>過去一年中表現最差的市場板塊無疑是醫療保健。整個行業的股票都在下跌，但該行業最大的公司之一為巴菲特提供了一個將大量資金投入的重大機會：<strong>聯合健康集團</strong>(UNH 1.24%)。</p>
</div><p>United has gone through a lot over the past year. Consumer and investor sentiment has turned against the company. That's been exacerbated by high utilization rates and increasing cost of care weighing on its financial results. United's net margin fell to 3.1% in the second quarter, down from 4.3% in the same period a year ago. Management also revised its full-year earnings outlook after withdrawing its guidance in May. It now expects &#34;at least&#34; $16 in earnings per share, down from $27.66 in 2024.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>聯合健康在過去一年中經歷了很多。消費者和投資者的情緒已經轉向對該公司的反對。這種情況因高利用率和不斷上升的護理成本對其財務結果造成壓力而加劇。聯合健康的淨利潤率在第二季度降至 3.1%，低於去年同期的 4.3%。管理層在 5 月撤回指引後也修訂了全年盈利預期。現在預計每股收益 “至少” 為 16 美元，低於 2024 年的 27.66 美元。</p>
</div><p>On top of all that, the company is being investigated by the DOJ over its Medicare Advantage program. As the largest Medicare Advantage provider in the country, the investigation could result in billions in fines and clawed back revenue.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>除此之外，該公司還因其醫療保險優勢計劃受到司法部的調查。作為全國最大的醫療保險優勢提供商，該調查可能導致數十億美元的罰款和追回的收入。</p>
</div><p>The stock has been absolutely punished, with shares down more than 60% from their late 2024 at the end of July and early August. But that may be a bigger drop in share price than is warranted, especially considering United's competitive moats remain intact.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>該股票遭受了嚴厲打擊，股價在 2024 年 7 月底和 8 月初下跌超過 60%。但考慮到聯合健康的競爭護城河仍然完好，這可能是股價下跌幅度過大。</p>
</div><p>UnitedHealth is still one of the largest managed care organizations in the country, and its scale gives it significant advantages. Greater scale gives it negotiating leverage, helping it keep prices from rising too much. As costs have climbed, United finds itself in a much better position than smaller companies in the space.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>聯合健康仍然是美國最大的管理醫療組織之一，其規模賦予了其顯著的優勢。更大的規模使其在談判中擁有更大的槓桿，幫助其保持價格不至於過快上漲。隨着成本的上升，聯合健康的處境比該領域的小公司要好得多。</p>
</div><p>Its pharmacy benefits management segment, Optum Rx, also benefits from scale and network effects. Optum is able to negotiate better drug pricing than smaller competitors, which attracts more customers to its PBM, which in turn gives it even more negotiating leverage.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>其藥品福利管理部門 Optum Rx 也受益於規模和網絡效應。Optum 能夠比小型競爭對手談判出更好的藥品價格，這吸引了更多客户到其藥品福利管理中，從而進一步增強了其談判能力。</p>
</div><p>United also sports a solid balance sheet with a growing cash buffer ($32 billion), which should help shield it from any negative consequences that arise from the DOJ investigation. It also has the flexibility to pause its share repurchases if it wants to further build up with war chest . Debt at $79 billion looks manageable, given its predictable revenue from premiums producing growing cash flows.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>聯合健康還擁有穩健的資產負債表，現金儲備不斷增長（320 億美元），這應有助於其抵禦因司法部調查而產生的任何負面後果。它還具有在想要進一步積累資金時暫停股票回購的靈活性。79 億美元的債務在其可預測的保費收入產生的現金流不斷增長的情況下看起來是可控的。</p>
</div><p>The stock now trades at about 16-times 2026 earnings per share estimates. With management's expectations for annual EPS growth in the 13% to 16% range, that looks like a great value now. There are significant risks facing the business, as the DOJ investigation hangs over its head, regulations present some revenue headwinds, and medical utilization remains high. But right now, it looks like an opportunity to be greedy while others are fearful.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>該股票目前的交易價格約為 2026 年每股收益預期的 16 倍。考慮到管理層對每股收益年增長率在 13% 到 16% 之間的預期，這看起來現在是一個很好的價值。儘管面臨着重大風險，包括司法部的調查懸而未決、監管帶來一些收入阻力，以及醫療利用率仍然較高。但現在看來，這是一個在他人恐懼時貪婪的機會。</p>
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Warren Buffett Is Selling Apple and Bank of America and Piling Into This Beaten Down Value Stock Instead

- 巴菲特即將年滿 95 歲，仍是備受尊敬的投資經理。  
- 伯克希爾哈撒韋股票因巴菲特將辭任 CEO 而下跌約 10%。  
- 巴菲特在第二季度出售了大量蘋果和美國銀行的股票，同時投資於聯合健康集團。

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沃倫·巴菲特正在出售蘋果和美國銀行股票，並轉而投資於這隻被低估的價值股