<p>整個第三季度最重要的數據發佈即將到來。2023 年 8 月 27 日星期三收盤後，華爾街最大的上市公司、推動人工智能（AI）演變的創新領導者 <strong>Nvidia</strong>（NVDA 1.65%）將公佈其財政第二季度的運營結果（其財政年度在 1 月底結束）。</p>
<p>在華爾街，沒有哪個技術進步比人工智能更火熱。賦予軟件和系統人工智能，使其能夠在瞬間做出決策並隨着時間的推移在沒有人類干預的情況下變得更加高效，這是一場顛覆性的變革，可以加速全球大多數行業的增長。在《Sizing the Prize》中，普華永道的分析師預計，到 2030 年，人工智能的經濟影響將達到 15.7 萬億美元。</p>
<p>儘管自 2023 年初以來，Nvidia 的股價上漲了約 1100%，這表明該公司正在全力以赴，但可以説，人工智能革命的面孔在一個遠非完美的市場和趨勢中被定價得過於完美。儘管其股價幾乎呈拋物線式上升，但 Nvidia 在 8 月 27 日可能難以滿足華爾街的高期望。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MzA0NTQvbnZpZGlhLXZveWFnZXItaGVhZHF1YXJ0ZXJzLWFydGlmaWNpYWwtaW50ZWxsaWdlbmNlLWdwdS1haS1zZW1pY29uZHVjdG9yLmpwZyZ3PTcwMA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="700" height="466" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MzA0NTQvbnZpZGlhLXZveWFnZXItaGVhZHF1YXJ0ZXJzLWFydGlmaWNpYWwtaW50ZWxsaWdlbmNlLWdwdS1haS1zZW1pY29uZHVjdG9yLmpwZyZ3PTcwMA"/></p>
<p>圖片來源：Nvidia。</p>
<h2>利潤率將成為焦點，可能會成為拖累因素</h2>
<p>在人工智能圖形處理單元（GPU）方面，Nvidia 一直是行業的領頭羊。其 Hopper（H100）和 Blackwell GPU 在高計算數據中心的部署數量超過其他任何芯片，與競爭對手相比，Nvidia 硬件的計算能力依然強大。</p>
<p>但比 Nvidia 的競爭優勢更重要的是持續的 AI-GPU 短缺。</p>
<p>供需法則表明，當對某種商品或服務的需求超過其供應時，該商品或服務的價格將上漲，直到需求減弱。由於其 AI-GPU 的訂單積壓，Nvidia 能夠為其硬件收取溢價，這反過來使其公認會計原則（GAAP）毛利率在 2025 財年第一季度達到了 78.4% 的高位。只要這種 AI 先進芯片的短缺持續，Nvidia 的毛利率就會保持在高位。</p>
<p>Nvidia 面臨的問題是，它不再是唯一的競爭者。<strong>Advanced Micro Devices</strong> 和中國的華為是積極擴大其數據中心芯片生產的外部競爭者。然而，對 Nvidia 的 GAAP 毛利率構成最大威脅的可能來自內部。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/45ca0272bab9bb53e5f8ea87b8fa0ffb.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="720" height="441" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/45ca0272bab9bb53e5f8ea87b8fa0ffb.png"/></p>
<p>Nvidia 毛利率（季度）數據來源於 YCharts。</p>
<p>在淨銷售額方面，Nvidia 的主要客户一直是 “七大巨頭” 的成員。這些領先客户大多數正在內部開發 AI GPU 和解決方案，以在各自的數據中心使用。儘管這些芯片對 Nvidia 的計算優勢沒有威脅，但它們的價格明顯更便宜，並且不像 Blackwell 那樣積壓。在我看來，內部芯片開發必然會讓 Nvidia 失去寶貴的數據中心資源。</p>
<p>更重要的是，這種內部開發正在削弱 Nvidia 一直以來珍視的 AI-GPU 短缺。隨着對 AI 加速芯片的需求逐漸平息，Nvidia 的定價能力和 GAAP 毛利率將隨着時間的推移而減弱。我們已經目睹了超過一年的穩定毛利率下降。</p>
<h2>Nvidia 在多個方面都將難以證明其估值合理性</h2>
<p>除了毛利率備受關注外，Nvidia 還將面臨幾乎不可能的任務，即在一個歷史上價格高企的市場中證明其估值溢價的合理性。</p>
<p>明確地説，我認為 Nvidia 確實值得擁有估值溢價，因為其競爭優勢。問題在於，這種溢價能被拉伸到多遠，才不會變得過於誇張，這個問題是主觀的。</p>
<p>歷史先例告訴我們，處於下一個重大趨勢的行業領導者在延長估值方面的容忍度相對較短。在 25 年前互聯網泡沫破裂之前，<strong>Cisco Systems</strong>、<strong>Microsoft</strong> 和 <strong>Amazon</strong> 等知名互聯網領導者的市銷率（P/S）分別達到了 31 到 43 的高峰。除了 <strong>Palantir Technologies</strong>，其市銷率最近進入了一個獨立的軌道，沒有任何在顛覆性技術前沿的巨頭公司能夠在較長時間內維持 30 到 40 的市銷率。</p>
<p>不到一週前，Nvidia 的過去 12 個月的市銷率徘徊在 30 以上。儘管在報告預計的財年第二季度同比銷售增長 53% 時，其市銷率會略有下降，但仍將處於一個遠高於歷史可持續水平的倍數。</p>
<p>除了個別價格高企外，Nvidia 還是少數幾隻高增長科技股之一，這些股票將 <strong>S&amp;P 500</strong>（^GSPC 1.52%）的 Shiller 市盈率提升至 154 年來持續牛市中的第三高倍數。之前記錄的股市如此昂貴的情況，最終都伴隨着基準 S&amp;P 500 的 20% 或更多的下跌。</p>
<p>在上述毛利率討論後，抱歉使用了這個雙關語，但確實沒有容錯的餘地。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MzA0NTQvc3RvY2stY2hhcnQtY3Jhc2gtaW52ZXN0LWJyb2tlci10YWJsZXQtY3J5cHRvLXBsdW5nZS1idWJibGUtZ2V0dHkuanBnJnc9NzAw?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="700" height="464" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MzA0NTQvc3RvY2stY2hhcnQtY3Jhc2gtaW52ZXN0LWJyb2tlci10YWJsZXQtY3J5cHRvLXBsdW5nZS1idWJibGUtZ2V0dHkuanBnJnc9NzAw"/></p>
<p>圖片來源：Getty Images。</p>
<h2>歷史先例對華爾街領先的 AI 股票構成不可否認的擔憂</h2>
<p>幫助解釋為什麼 Nvidia 在 8 月 27 日（及之後）可能會令人失望的最後一塊拼圖與歷史有關。</p>
<p>在過去近三十年的大部分時間裏，投資者見證了許多下一個大趨勢和顛覆性創新的出現。雖然這些趨勢中的許多對美國企業產生了積極影響，包括互聯網的出現，但它們都經歷了早期泡沫破裂的事件。</p>
<p>被炒作的創新問題在於，投資者在廣泛採用時間表和早期效用方面總是高估。例如，企業直到互聯網普及多年後才完全理解如何利用這場革命。顛覆性創新需要時間來成熟，這使得人工智能在短短兩年多的時間內已經成熟的可能性不大。</p>
<p>儘管對人工智能數據中心基礎設施和人工智能軟件的需求令人印象深刻，但大多數企業尚未優化其人工智能解決方案，也沒有很多企業從人工智能投資中獲得正回報。這些都是投資者再次高估人工智能影響力的明顯跡象，至少在早期階段是如此。</p>
<p>在所有大型公司的增長中，沒有哪家公司的增長比 Nvidia 更依賴於投資者對人工智能發展的熱情，Nvidia 在不到三年的時間裏增加了近 4 萬億美元的市值。即使是最輕微的波動也可能打亂這種炒作。</p>
<p>重申一下，Nvidia 是一家穩健且經過時間考驗的公司，不會消失。但它遠非完美——而完美正是華爾街目前所追求的。</p>

英偉達

2 倍做多英偉達 ETF - GraniteShares

南方兩倍做多英偉達

南方兩倍做空英偉達

英偉達期權收益策略 ETF - YieldMax

1 倍做空英偉達 ETF - Direxion

2 倍做多 NVDA ETF - T-Rex

2 倍做空 NVDA ETF - T-Rex

半導體 3 倍做多 - Direxion

<p>英偉達定於 8 月 27 日公佈其 2024 財年第二季度業績，市場對其能否滿足華爾街的高期望表示擔憂。儘管股價大幅上漲，但 AI-GPU 的稀缺性以及來自 AMD 和華為等公司的競爭加劇可能會影響英偉達的毛利率。此外，主要客户的內部芯片開發可能進一步削弱英偉達的定價能力。該公司的高估值，市銷率超過 30 倍，使得在歷史高價市場中的可持續性問題引發關注</p>

<p>Arguably the most important data release of the entire third quarter is just days away. Following the closing bell on Wednesday, Aug. 27, Wall Street's largest publicly traded company, and the innovative leader fueling the evolution of artificial intelligence (AI), <strong>Nvidia</strong>(NVDA 1.65%), will report its fiscal second-quarter operating results (its fiscal year ends in late January).</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>整個第三季度最重要的數據發佈即將到來。2023 年 8 月 27 日星期三收盤後，華爾街最大的上市公司、推動人工智能（AI）演變的創新領導者 <strong>Nvidia</strong>（NVDA 1.65%）將公佈其財政第二季度的運營結果（其財政年度在 1 月底結束）。</p>
</div><p>No technological advancement has been hotter on Wall Street than AI. Empowering software and systems with AI so they can make split-second decisions and grow more efficient over time without human intervention is a game changer that can accelerate growth in most industries around the globe. In <em>Sizing the Prize</em>, analysts at PwC pegged the economic impact of AI at $15.7 trillion come 2030.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在華爾街，沒有哪個技術進步比人工智能更火熱。賦予軟件和系統人工智能，使其能夠在瞬間做出決策並隨着時間的推移在沒有人類干預的情況下變得更加高效，這是一場顛覆性的變革，可以加速全球大多數行業的增長。在《Sizing the Prize》中，普華永道的分析師預計，到 2030 年，人工智能的經濟影響將達到 15.7 萬億美元。</p>
</div><p>While an approximately 1,100% increase in Nvidia's stock since the start of 2023 signals that the company is firing on all cylinders, a case can be made that the face of the AI revolution is priced for perfection in a market and trend that are anything but perfect. Despite its near-parabolic ascent, Nvidia will likely struggle to live up to Wall Street's sky-high expectations on Aug. 27.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>儘管自 2023 年初以來，Nvidia 的股價上漲了約 1100%，這表明該公司正在全力以赴，但可以説，人工智能革命的面孔在一個遠非完美的市場和趨勢中被定價得過於完美。儘管其股價幾乎呈拋物線式上升，但 Nvidia 在 8 月 27 日可能難以滿足華爾街的高期望。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MzA0NTQvbnZpZGlhLXZveWFnZXItaGVhZHF1YXJ0ZXJzLWFydGlmaWNpYWwtaW50ZWxsaWdlbmNlLWdwdS1haS1zZW1pY29uZHVjdG9yLmpwZyZ3PTcwMA" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F830454%2Fnvidia-voyager-headquarters-artificial-intelligence-gpu-ai-semiconductor.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Nvidia.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>圖片來源：Nvidia。</p>
</div><h2>Margins will be in the spotlight and likely act as a drag</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>利潤率將成為焦點，可能會成為拖累因素</h2>
</div><p>In terms of AI-graphics processing units (GPUs), Nvidia has been the kingpin. Its Hopper (H100) and Blackwell GPUs have been deployed more than any other chips in high-compute data centers, with the respective compute capabilities of Nvidia's hardware standing tall when compared to the competition.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在人工智能圖形處理單元（GPU）方面，Nvidia 一直是行業的領頭羊。其 Hopper（H100）和 Blackwell GPU 在高計算數據中心的部署數量超過其他任何芯片，與競爭對手相比，Nvidia 硬件的計算能力依然強大。</p>
</div><p>But what's been even more important than Nvidia's competitive advantages is persistent AI-GPU scarcity.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但比 Nvidia 的競爭優勢更重要的是持續的 AI-GPU 短缺。</p>
</div><p>The law of supply and demand states that when demand for a good or service outpaces its supply, the price of said good or service will climb until demand tapers. With an impressive backlog for its AI-GPUs, Nvidia has been able to command a premium price for its hardware, which in turn sent its generally accepted accounting principles (GAAP) gross margin to a high of 78.4% during the first quarter of fiscal 2025. As long as this AI-advanced chip scarcity persists, Nvidia's gross margin is golden.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>供需法則表明，當對某種商品或服務的需求超過其供應時，該商品或服務的價格將上漲，直到需求減弱。由於其 AI-GPU 的訂單積壓，Nvidia 能夠為其硬件收取溢價，這反過來使其公認會計原則（GAAP）毛利率在 2025 財年第一季度達到了 78.4% 的高位。只要這種 AI 先進芯片的短缺持續，Nvidia 的毛利率就會保持在高位。</p>
</div><p>The problem for Nvidia is that it's no longer the only rodeo in town. <strong>Advanced Micro Devices</strong> and China-based Huawei are external competitors that are actively ramping up production of their data-center chips. However, the biggest threat to Nvidia's GAAP gross margin potentially comes from within.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Nvidia 面臨的問題是，它不再是唯一的競爭者。<strong>Advanced Micro Devices</strong> 和中國的華為是積極擴大其數據中心芯片生產的外部競爭者。然而，對 Nvidia 的 GAAP 毛利率構成最大威脅的可能來自內部。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/45ca0272bab9bb53e5f8ea87b8fa0ffb.png" alt="" original-src="https://media.ycharts.com/charts/45ca0272bab9bb53e5f8ea87b8fa0ffb.png"/></p>
<p>NVDA Gross Profit Margin (Quarterly) data by YCharts.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Nvidia 毛利率（季度）數據來源於 YCharts。</p>
</div><p>Nvidia's top customers, in terms of net sales, have consistently been members of the &#34;Magnificent Seven.&#34; Most of these leading clients are internally developing AI GPUs and solutions to use in their respective data centers. Even though these chips are no threat to Nvidia's compute advantages, they are considerably cheaper and not backlogged like Blackwell. In my view, it's inevitable that internal chip development will cost Nvidia precious data center real estate.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在淨銷售額方面，Nvidia 的主要客户一直是 “七大巨頭” 的成員。這些領先客户大多數正在內部開發 AI GPU 和解決方案，以在各自的數據中心使用。儘管這些芯片對 Nvidia 的計算優勢沒有威脅，但它們的價格明顯更便宜，並且不像 Blackwell 那樣積壓。在我看來，內部芯片開發必然會讓 Nvidia 失去寶貴的數據中心資源。</p>
</div><p>More importantly, this internal development is working against the AI-GPU scarcity that Nvidia has held so dear. As the insatiable demand for AI-accelerating chips calms, Nvidia should see its pricing power and GAAP gross margin fade over time. We've already been witnessing steady gross margin erosion for more than a year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>更重要的是，這種內部開發正在削弱 Nvidia 一直以來珍視的 AI-GPU 短缺。隨着對 AI 加速芯片的需求逐漸平息，Nvidia 的定價能力和 GAAP 毛利率將隨着時間的推移而減弱。我們已經目睹了超過一年的穩定毛利率下降。</p>
</div><h2>Nvidia will have a difficult time justifying its valuation in multiple respects</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>Nvidia 在多個方面都將難以證明其估值合理性</h2>
</div><p>In addition to gross margin being front and center, Nvidia is going to have a near-impossible task of justifying its valuation premium amid a historically pricey market.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>除了毛利率備受關注外，Nvidia 還將面臨幾乎不可能的任務，即在一個歷史上價格高企的市場中證明其估值溢價的合理性。</p>
</div><p>To be abundantly clear, I believe Nvidia <em>is</em> deserving of a valuation premium thanks to its competitive advantages. The issue, while subjective, is how far this premium can be stretched before it becomes excessive.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>明確地説，我認為 Nvidia 確實值得擁有估值溢價，因為其競爭優勢。問題在於，這種溢價能被拉伸到多遠，才不會變得過於誇張，這個問題是主觀的。</p>
</div><p>Historical precedent tells us that industry leaders of next-big-thing trends have a relatively short leash when it comes to extended valuations. Prior to the bursting of the dot-com bubble a quarter-century ago, prominent internet leaders like <strong>Cisco Systems</strong>, <strong>Microsoft</strong>, and <strong>Amazon</strong> peaked at price-to-sales (P/S) ratios ranging from 31 to 43, respectively. Except for <strong>Palantir Technologies</strong>, whose P/S ratio recently entered a separate orbit, no megacap company on the leading edge of a game-changing technology has been able to maintain a P/S ratio in the 30 to 40 range for a substantial length of time.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>歷史先例告訴我們，處於下一個重大趨勢的行業領導者在延長估值方面的容忍度相對較短。在 25 年前互聯網泡沫破裂之前，<strong>Cisco Systems</strong>、<strong>Microsoft</strong> 和 <strong>Amazon</strong> 等知名互聯網領導者的市銷率（P/S）分別達到了 31 到 43 的高峰。除了 <strong>Palantir Technologies</strong>，其市銷率最近進入了一個獨立的軌道，沒有任何在顛覆性技術前沿的巨頭公司能夠在較長時間內維持 30 到 40 的市銷率。</p>
</div><p>Less than a week ago, Nvidia's trailing-12-month P/S ratio was hovering north of 30. While its P/S ratio will decline a bit when it reports projected year-over-year sales growth of 53% in the fiscal second quarter, it'll still be tipping the scales at a multiple that's far above anything that's been historically sustainable.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>不到一週前，Nvidia 的過去 12 個月的市銷率徘徊在 30 以上。儘管在報告預計的財年第二季度同比銷售增長 53% 時，其市銷率會略有下降，但仍將處於一個遠高於歷史可持續水平的倍數。</p>
</div><p>On top of being individually pricey, Nvidia is one of a handful of high-growth tech stocks that have lifted the <strong>S&amp;P 500</strong>'s (^GSPC 1.52%) Shiller price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio to its third-highest multiple during a continuous bull market when back-tested 154 years. Previously documented occasions when the stock market was this expensive were eventually followed by declines of 20% or more in the benchmark S&amp;P 500.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>除了個別價格高企外，Nvidia 還是少數幾隻高增長科技股之一，這些股票將 <strong>S&amp;P 500</strong>（^GSPC 1.52%）的 Shiller 市盈率提升至 154 年來持續牛市中的第三高倍數。之前記錄的股市如此昂貴的情況，最終都伴隨着基準 S&amp;P 500 的 20% 或更多的下跌。</p>
</div><p>Pardon the pun following the gross margin discussion above, but there's simply no margin for error.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在上述毛利率討論後，抱歉使用了這個雙關語，但確實沒有容錯的餘地。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MzA0NTQvc3RvY2stY2hhcnQtY3Jhc2gtaW52ZXN0LWJyb2tlci10YWJsZXQtY3J5cHRvLXBsdW5nZS1idWJibGUtZ2V0dHkuanBnJnc9NzAw" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F830454%2Fstock-chart-crash-invest-broker-tablet-crypto-plunge-bubble-getty.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>圖片來源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><h2>Historical precedent is an undeniable worry for Wall Street's leading AI stocks</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>歷史先例對華爾街領先的 AI 股票構成不可否認的擔憂</h2>
</div><p>The final piece of the puzzle that helps explain why Nvidia is positioned to disappoint come Aug. 27 (and beyond) has to do with history.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>幫助解釋為什麼 Nvidia 在 8 月 27 日（及之後）可能會令人失望的最後一塊拼圖與歷史有關。</p>
</div><p>For the better part of the last three decades, investors have been privy to no shortage of next-big-thing trends and game-changing innovations. While many of these trends went on to positively impact corporate America, including the advent of the internet, all endured early-stage bubble-bursting events.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在過去近三十年的大部分時間裏，投資者見證了許多下一個大趨勢和顛覆性創新的出現。雖然這些趨勢中的許多對美國企業產生了積極影響，包括互聯網的出現，但它們都經歷了早期泡沫破裂的事件。</p>
</div><p>The problem with hyped innovations is that investors consistently overshoot when it comes to widespread adoption timelines and early-stage utility. For example, businesses didn't fully understand how to make the internet revolution work in their favor until many years after it went mainstream. It takes time for game-changing innovations to mature, which makes it unlikely that artificial intelligence has done so in a little over two years.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>被炒作的創新問題在於，投資者在廣泛採用時間表和早期效用方面總是高估。例如，企業直到互聯網普及多年後才完全理解如何利用這場革命。顛覆性創新需要時間來成熟，這使得人工智能在短短兩年多的時間內已經成熟的可能性不大。</p>
</div><p>While demand for AI-data center infrastructure and AI software has been impressive, most businesses aren't yet optimizing their AI solutions, nor are many generating a positive return on their AI investments. These are telltale signs that investors have, yet again, overestimated how impactful artificial intelligence will be, at least in the early going.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>儘管對人工智能數據中心基礎設施和人工智能軟件的需求令人印象深刻，但大多數企業尚未優化其人工智能解決方案，也沒有很多企業從人工智能投資中獲得正回報。這些都是投資者再次高估人工智能影響力的明顯跡象，至少在早期階段是如此。</p>
</div><p>No megacap company's growth has been more reliant on investor euphoria surrounding the evolution of AI than Nvidia, which has added close to $4 trillion in market cap in less than three years. Even the slightest hiccup can disrupt this hype.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在所有大型公司的增長中，沒有哪家公司的增長比 Nvidia 更依賴於投資者對人工智能發展的熱情，Nvidia 在不到三年的時間裏增加了近 4 萬億美元的市值。即使是最輕微的波動也可能打亂這種炒作。</p>
</div><p>To reiterate, Nvidia is a solid and time-tested company that isn't going anywhere. But it's far from perfect -- and perfection is all Wall Street will settle for at this point.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>重申一下，Nvidia 是一家穩健且經過時間考驗的公司，不會消失。但它遠非完美——而完美正是華爾街目前所追求的。</p>
</div>

Prediction: Nvidia Won't Be Able to Live Up to Wall Street's Sky-High Expectations on Aug. 27

- Nvidia 將於 8 月 27 日發佈第二季度財報，市場期待高。  
- AI 芯片需求強勁，但競爭加劇可能影響其毛利率。  
- 歷史數據顯示，過高的估值可能導致股市回調風險。  

預測：英偉達可能無法在 8 月 27 日達到華爾街的高預期