<p>儘管市場上有許多不同投資者的各種觀點，但 “聰明資金” 仍然備受推崇。這裏所説的聰明資金是指專業投資者，他們中的許多人管理自己的基金，擁有數十年的投資經驗，並且能夠展示長期的回報以支持他們的觀點。</p>
<p>就像市場一樣，專業人士在個別股票上很少達成一致。因此，當你看到一羣精英對沖基金和億萬富翁湧入某隻股票時，這可能是一個強烈的指標。</p>
<p><strong>聯合健康集團</strong>（UNH 1.34%）今年的股票遭遇重創，原因多種多樣。但儘管在今年第二季度繼續大幅拋售，一些華爾街最知名的對沖基金和億萬富翁開始湧入該股票。他們顯然認為找到了一個不對稱的機會，也就是説，他們認為該股票的潛在上漲遠遠超過潛在下跌。</p>
<h2>巴菲特和其他億萬富翁正在投資</h2>
<p>聯合健康最近獲得了巨大的推動，因為沃倫·巴菲特的 <strong>Berkshire Hathaway</strong> 披露在第二季度末持有超過 15 億美元的頭寸。巴菲特及其團隊本質上是價值投資者，尋找那些被低估的股票，這些股票可以在更長的時間框架內獲得回報。但不僅僅是巴菲特在投資；一整羣對沖基金投資者也購買了該股票。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84Mjk1NjIvcGVvcGxlLXRhbGtpbmcuanBnJnc9NzAw?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84Mjk1NjIvcGVvcGxlLXRhbGtpbmcuanBnJnc9NzAw"/></p>
<p>圖片來源：Getty Images。</p>
<p>由億萬富翁投資者大衞·泰珀（David Tepper）管理的 <strong>Appaloosa Management</strong> 將其持股增加了 1300%，從第一季度的 175,000 股增至第二季度的 245 萬股。該頭寸的價值超過 7.64 億美元。</p>
<p>由在電影《大空頭》中出現的邁克爾·伯裏（Michael Burry）管理的 <strong>Scion Asset Management</strong> 在第二季度購買了 1200 萬美元的股票，以及 35 萬份長期看漲期權。看漲期權是給予投資者在特定價格之前或在特定日期之前購買股票的權利（但不是義務）的合約。每份看漲期權的價值為 100 股，如果股票的市場價格在特定日期之前超過看漲期權的行使價格，投資者將獲利。購買看漲期權是對股票價格上漲的押注，因此是樂觀的跡象。</p>
<p>由億萬富翁斯蒂芬·曼德爾（Stephen Mandel Jr.）管理的 <strong>Lone Pine Capital</strong> 購買了超過 169 萬股。</p>
<p>由彼得·布朗（Peter Brown）管理的 <strong>Renaissance Technologies</strong> 購買了大約 135 萬股。</p>
<p>雖然在第二季度也有基金拋售聯合健康，但並不是每天都能看到一些華爾街最成功和最有聲望的投資者在同一季度購買同一只股票。</p>
<h2>短期挑戰可能掩蓋核心業務</h2>
<p>聯合健康今年確實面臨挑戰。醫療成本比預期高出數十億美元，整個行業的趨勢，包括昂貴的醫療保健、更高的利用率、價格高昂的處方藥和老齡化人口，都造成了強大的逆風。</p>
<p>這預計將顯著壓低公司今年的收益。管理層預計調整後的每股收益（EPS）“至少為 16 美元”，低於去年的約 27.66 美元。</p>
<p>而且，美國司法部（DOJ）正在調查聯合健康在其醫療保險優勢計費實踐中的潛在刑事問題。管理層似乎對其計費實踐在法律範圍內充滿信心，並正在配合司法部的調查。公司還啓動了對其政策和程序的第三方審查。</p>
<p>聯合健康仍然是美國最大的健康保險公司，因此擁有定價權。公司在財務上似乎也仍然穩健。管理層對 16 美元調整後每股收益的預期顯然可能被低估。</p>
<p>儘管公司在資產負債表上有相當多的債務，但它也產生足夠的經營收益和現金流來謹慎管理債務。公司的股息收益率約為 2.9%，考慮到聯合健康過去 12 個月的自由現金流收益率接近 9%，股息支付似乎很容易管理。</p>
<p>當然，仍然存在可能繼續傷害業務的風險。美國的醫療趨勢似乎每年都在惡化，可能會繼續影響該行業和公司。更持久的通貨膨脹和司法部的調查是其他風險。</p>
<p>但華爾街一些最有才華的投資者顯然認為這些風險在今年的大幅拋售後已經反映在股價中。聯合健康集團的交易價格約為未來收益預期的 19 倍。這低於過去兩年半的平均水平，並且是基於預期收益顯著低於正常水平，至少自 2022 年以來如此。</p>
<p>雖然控制 “聰明資金” 的專業投資者非常擅長他們的工作，但他們當然也是人，因此會犯很多錯誤。此外，SEC 的文件並不總能顯示投資者頭寸的真實情況，這就是為什麼投資者不應該盲目跟隨聰明資金，而需要進行自己的盡職調查。</p>
<p>儘管如此，考慮到聯合健康的資產負債表強度、在保險市場的領先地位以及大幅拋售，股票的風險回報前景是有利的。</p>

伯克希爾哈撒韋-B

伯克希爾哈撒韋-A

聯合健康

<p>一些華爾街頂級億萬富翁和對沖基金正在大舉投資聯合健康集團，儘管近期股價下跌，他們仍將其視為一種不對稱的投資機會。沃倫·巴菲特的伯克希爾哈撒韋和大衞·泰珀的阿帕盧薩管理公司等知名投資者顯著增加了他們的持股。儘管聯合健康面臨着醫療成本上升和司法部調查等挑戰，但其強勁的財務狀況和定價能力暗示着復甦的潛力。該股票的估值低於歷史平均水平，這表明精英投資者認為風險已經反映在當前價格中</p>

<p>While the market is full of varying perspectives from many different investors, the &#34;smart money&#34; is still held in high regard. By smart money, I mean professional investors, many of whom run their own funds, have decades of investment experience, and can show long-term returns to back it up.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>儘管市場上有許多不同投資者的各種觀點，但 “聰明資金” 仍然備受推崇。這裏所説的聰明資金是指專業投資者，他們中的許多人管理自己的基金，擁有數十年的投資經驗，並且能夠展示長期的回報以支持他們的觀點。</p>
</div><p>Just like the market, the pros rarely agree on individual stocks. That's why when you do see a group of elite hedge funds and billionaires piling into a stock, it could be a strong indicator.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>就像市場一樣，專業人士在個別股票上很少達成一致。因此，當你看到一羣精英對沖基金和億萬富翁湧入某隻股票時，這可能是一個強烈的指標。</p>
</div><p><strong>UnitedHealth Group</strong>(UNH 1.34%) has seen its stock get crushed this year, for myriad reasons. But while it continued to sell off intensely in the second quarter of the year, some of Wall Street's most prominent hedge funds and billionaires began piling into the name. They clearly think they have found an asymmetric opportunity, meaning they view the stock at a level where the potential upside far exceeds potential downside.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>聯合健康集團</strong>（UNH 1.34%）今年的股票遭遇重創，原因多種多樣。但儘管在今年第二季度繼續大幅拋售，一些華爾街最知名的對沖基金和億萬富翁開始湧入該股票。他們顯然認為找到了一個不對稱的機會，也就是説，他們認為該股票的潛在上漲遠遠超過潛在下跌。</p>
</div><h2>Buffett and other billionaires are in</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>巴菲特和其他億萬富翁正在投資</h2>
</div><p>UnitedHealth got a big jolt recently after Warren Buffett's <strong>B</strong> <strong>erkshire Hathaway</strong> disclosed that it held a position worth over $1.5 billion at the end of the second quarter. Buffett and his team are value investors at their core, seeking out undervalued stocks that can pay off over a longer time frame. But it wasn't just Buffett who got in; a whole group of hedge fund investors bought shares as well.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>聯合健康最近獲得了巨大的推動，因為沃倫·巴菲特的 <strong>Berkshire Hathaway</strong> 披露在第二季度末持有超過 15 億美元的頭寸。巴菲特及其團隊本質上是價值投資者，尋找那些被低估的股票，這些股票可以在更長的時間框架內獲得回報。但不僅僅是巴菲特在投資；一整羣對沖基金投資者也購買了該股票。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84Mjk1NjIvcGVvcGxlLXRhbGtpbmcuanBnJnc9NzAw" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F829562%2Fpeople-talking.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>圖片來源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><p><strong>Appaloosa Management</strong>, run by the billionaire investor David Tepper, increased its stake by 1,300%, from 175,000 shares in the first quarter to 2.45 million in the second quarter. The position is valued at over $764 million.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>由億萬富翁投資者大衞·泰珀（David Tepper）管理的 <strong>Appaloosa Management</strong> 將其持股增加了 1300%，從第一季度的 175,000 股增至第二季度的 245 萬股。該頭寸的價值超過 7.64 億美元。</p>
</div><p><strong>Scion Asset Management</strong>, run by Michael Burry, who was featured in the film <em>The Big Short</em>, bought $12 million of the stock in the second quarter, as well as 350,000 long call options. Call options are contracts that give the investor the right (but not the obligation) to purchase a stock at a specific price before or by a certain date. Each call option is worth 100 shares and if the market price of a stock exceeds what's referred to as the strike price of a call option before or by a certain date, the investor will make money. Buying call options is a bet on a stock price rising and therefore a sign of optimism.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>由在電影《大空頭》中出現的邁克爾·伯裏（Michael Burry）管理的 <strong>Scion Asset Management</strong> 在第二季度購買了 1200 萬美元的股票，以及 35 萬份長期看漲期權。看漲期權是給予投資者在特定價格之前或在特定日期之前購買股票的權利（但不是義務）的合約。每份看漲期權的價值為 100 股，如果股票的市場價格在特定日期之前超過看漲期權的行使價格，投資者將獲利。購買看漲期權是對股票價格上漲的押注，因此是樂觀的跡象。</p>
</div><p><strong>Lone Pine Capital</strong>, run by the billionaire Stephen Mandel Jr., purchased over 1.69 million shares.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>由億萬富翁斯蒂芬·曼德爾（Stephen Mandel Jr.）管理的 <strong>Lone Pine Capital</strong> 購買了超過 169 萬股。</p>
</div><p><strong>Renaissance Technologies</strong>, run by Peter Brown, bought roughly 1.35 million shares.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>由彼得·布朗（Peter Brown）管理的 <strong>Renaissance Technologies</strong> 購買了大約 135 萬股。</p>
</div><p>While funds were definitely selling UnitedHealth as well in the second quarter, it's not every day you see funds led by some of the most successful and storied investors on Wall Street all buy shares in the same quarter.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>雖然在第二季度也有基金拋售聯合健康，但並不是每天都能看到一些華爾街最成功和最有聲望的投資者在同一季度購買同一只股票。</p>
</div><h2>Near-term challenges may be overshadowing the core business</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>短期挑戰可能掩蓋核心業務</h2>
</div><p>UnitedHealth has certainly faced challenges this year. Medical costs have come in billions of dollars higher than expected, as sectorwide trends including expensive healthcare, higher utilization, pricey subscription drugs, and an aging population all created strong headwinds.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>聯合健康今年確實面臨挑戰。醫療成本比預期高出數十億美元，整個行業的趨勢，包括昂貴的醫療保健、更高的利用率、價格高昂的處方藥和老齡化人口，都造成了強大的逆風。</p>
</div><p>This is expected to significantly depress the company's earnings this year. Management is guiding for &#34;at least $16&#34; of adjusted earnings per share (EPS), down from about $27.66 last year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這預計將顯著壓低公司今年的收益。管理層預計調整後的每股收益（EPS）“至少為 16 美元”，低於去年的約 27.66 美元。</p>
</div><p>And the U.S. Department of Justice (DOJ) is investigating UnitedHealth in a potential criminal matter for its Medicare Advantage billing practices. Management seems confident that its billing practices are within the law and is cooperating with the DOJ. And the company has launched third-party reviews of its policies and procedures.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>而且，美國司法部（DOJ）正在調查聯合健康在其醫療保險優勢計費實踐中的潛在刑事問題。管理層似乎對其計費實踐在法律範圍內充滿信心，並正在配合司法部的調查。公司還啓動了對其政策和程序的第三方審查。</p>
</div><p>UnitedHealth is still the largest health insurer in the U.S. and therefore has pricing power. The company still seems to be on solid footing financially as well. Management's guidance for $16 adjusted EPS certainly could prove to be low.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>聯合健康仍然是美國最大的健康保險公司，因此擁有定價權。公司在財務上似乎也仍然穩健。管理層對 16 美元調整後每股收益的預期顯然可能被低估。</p>
</div><p>While the company has a good amount of debt on its balance sheet, it also generates enough operating earnings and cash flow to manage the debt prudently. The company's dividend yield is about 2.9%, and the dividend payout seems easily manageable considering that UnitedHealth's trailing-12-month free cash flow yield is close to 9%.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>儘管公司在資產負債表上有相當多的債務，但它也產生足夠的經營收益和現金流來謹慎管理債務。公司的股息收益率約為 2.9%，考慮到聯合健康過去 12 個月的自由現金流收益率接近 9%，股息支付似乎很容易管理。</p>
</div><p>There are certainly risks that could continue to hurt the business. U.S. medical trends seem to be getting worse every year, and they could continue to hit the sector and the company. More persistent inflation and the DOJ's investigation are other risks.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>當然，仍然存在可能繼續傷害業務的風險。美國的醫療趨勢似乎每年都在惡化，可能會繼續影響該行業和公司。更持久的通貨膨脹和司法部的調查是其他風險。</p>
</div><p>But a group of some of the most talented investors on Wall Street clearly seem to think those risks were baked into the stock price after the massive sell-off this year. UnitedHealth Group trades at about 19 times forward earnings estimates. That's below the average seen over the last two and a half years and is based on expected earnings that are significantly lower than normal, at least since 2022.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但華爾街一些最有才華的投資者顯然認為這些風險在今年的大幅拋售後已經反映在股價中。聯合健康集團的交易價格約為未來收益預期的 19 倍。這低於過去兩年半的平均水平，並且是基於預期收益顯著低於正常水平，至少自 2022 年以來如此。</p>
</div><p>While professional investors controlling the &#34;smart money&#34; are very good at what they do, they are of course human and therefore make plenty of mistakes. Additionally, SEC filings don't always show the true nature of an investor's position, which is why investors shouldn't just follow the smart money blindly, and need to do their own due diligence.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>雖然控制 “聰明資金” 的專業投資者非常擅長他們的工作，但他們當然也是人，因此會犯很多錯誤。此外，SEC 的文件並不總能顯示投資者頭寸的真實情況，這就是為什麼投資者不應該盲目跟隨聰明資金，而需要進行自己的盡職調查。</p>
</div><p>That said, given UnitedHealth's balance sheet strength, position at the top of the insurance market, and the big sell-off, the risk-reward proposition on the stock is favorable.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>儘管如此，考慮到聯合健康的資產負債表強度、在保險市場的領先地位以及大幅拋售，股票的風險回報前景是有利的。</p>
</div>

Some of Wall Street's Most Prominent Billionaires and Hedge Funds Think They Have Found an Asymmetric Opportunity

- 多位頂級對沖基金和億萬富翁開始增持 UnitedHealth Group 股票。  
- 巴菲特的伯克希爾哈撒韋在第二季度持有超過 15 億美元的股份。  
- 儘管面臨挑戰，投資者認為該股的風險回報比仍然有利。  

華爾街的一些知名億萬富翁和對沖基金認為他們找到了一個不對稱的投資機會