<p>在每個季度結束後，管理超過 1 億美元的投資公司需要向證券交易委員會（SEC）提交 13F 表格。這些文件記錄了投資基金在最近一個季度內買入和賣出的股票，為投資者提供了 “聰明資金” 尋找價值和增長的方向。</p>
<p>近年來，億萬富翁投資經理 Stanley Druckenmiller（杜克斯家族辦公室）因承認自己過早退出半導體巨頭 <strong>Nvidia</strong> 而受到關注，他稱自己的決定是一個 “重大錯誤”。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MzA3MTYvZ2V0dHlpbWFnZXMtMTQ5MjMxOTg4NC04LmpwZyZ3PTcwMA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="700" height="393" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MzA3MTYvZ2V0dHlpbWFnZXMtMTQ5MjMxOTg4NC04LmpwZyZ3PTcwMA"/></p>
<p>圖片來源：Getty Images。</p>
<p>自那時以來，Druckenmiller 重新進入了芯片領域，這次他投資了人工智能（AI）基礎設施繁榮的一個關鍵受益者，而不是像 Nvidia、<strong>Advanced Micro Devices</strong> 或 <strong>Broadcom</strong> 這樣的常規選擇。</p>
<p>在過去一年中，Duquesne 在代工專家 <strong>台積電</strong>（TSM 0.64%）上建立了穩固的持倉。在第二季度，Druckenmiller 將其公司在台積電的股份增加了 28%——使其總持倉約達到 765,000 股。</p>
<p>讓我們來分析一下是什麼讓台積電成為如此引人注目的 AI 芯片股票，並評估現在是否是跟隨 Druckenmiller 的好機會。</p>
<h2>台積電全面開花，且...</h2>
<p>下圖突出顯示了台積電在 AI 革命期間的收入和毛利率趨勢。台積電在全球代工市場的估計市場份額為 68%，其運營水平遠高於 <strong>三星</strong> 或 <strong>英特爾</strong> 等競爭對手——這使得公司能夠對其服務行使相當大的定價權。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/f2d6f3a75b1bc91809cf1a55b8cf6514.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="720" height="456" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/f2d6f3a75b1bc91809cf1a55b8cf6514.png"/></p>
<p>TSM 收入（季度）數據來自 YCharts</p>
<h2>...其勢頭並未減弱</h2>
<p>乍一看，投資者可能會擔心台積電的急劇收入增長和擴大的利潤率即將達到頂峯。但數據顯示情況並非如此。</p>
<p>企業在 AI 基礎設施上的支出正在加速，主要由雲計算巨頭 <strong>亞馬遜</strong>、<strong>谷歌母公司 Alphabet</strong> 和 <strong>微軟</strong> 推動，這些公司正在進行歷史性的資本支出（capex）狂潮，以獲取下一代數據中心所需的 GPU 和網絡設備。而不僅僅是雲巨頭，<strong>Meta Platforms</strong>、<strong>蘋果</strong> 和 <strong>特斯拉</strong> 也在大力投資，以推動在機器人技術、自動駕駛和消費電子方面的雄心。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/5f9abda8169974d55201fa3684625d3c.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="720" height="524" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/5f9abda8169974d55201fa3684625d3c.png"/></p>
<p>AMZN 資本支出（TTM）數據來自 YCharts</p>
<p>總體而言，這種支出是 GPU 需求的一個代理。在幕後，這對台積電來説是一個巨大的順風。台積電是負責為 Nvidia、AMD 和許多其他公司製造這些先進芯片的代工廠。</p>
<p>雖然 Nvidia 和 AMD 佔據了大部分頭條新聞，但台積電實際上可能在芯片領域提供了最持久的增長前景。在許多方面，該公司代表了全球 AI 基礎設施建設的長期看漲期權。</p>
<h2>台積電股票值得買嗎？</h2>
<p>對台積電股票的估值有點棘手。與半導體領域的許多同行一樣，該公司近年來經歷了相當大的估值擴張。從簡單的市盈率（P/E）或前瞻市盈率（forward P/E）來看，這隻股票顯然看起來並不便宜。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/ab86484ecf619de62f497622c6e1c183.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="720" height="456" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/ab86484ecf619de62f497622c6e1c183.png"/></p>
<p>TSM 市盈率數據來自 YCharts</p>
<p>但深入挖掘，另一種故事浮現。台積電的 PEG 比率遠低於 1——這表明該公司相對於其未來增長潛力可能被低估。這正是像 Druckenmiller 這樣的投資者可能試圖利用的機會——在增長與價值交匯處的罕見機會。</p>
<p>對於長期投資者來説，我認為台積電是未來幾年值得購買和持有的芯片股票。它可能不會佔據頭條，但在支撐 AI 芯片時代的基礎設施革命中，它扮演着重要的支持角色。</p>

台積電

半導體 3 倍做多 - Direxion

<p>億萬富翁投資者斯坦利·德魯肯米勒（Stanley Druckenmiller）已將其在台積電（TSMC）的持股增加了 28%，目前持有約 765,000 股。台積電在人工智能半導體市場中佔據關鍵地位，受益於企業在人工智能基礎設施上的支出增加。儘管對估值存在擔憂，台積電的 PEG 比率表明，相較於其增長潛力，它可能被低估，這使其成為人工智能芯片領域一個有吸引力的長期投資機會</p>

<p>Following the end of each quarter, investment firms that manage over $100 million are required to file a form 13F with the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). These filings document the stocks that investment funds bought and sold during the most recent quarter -- providing investors with an idea of where &#34;smart money&#34; is looking for value and growth.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在每個季度結束後，管理超過 1 億美元的投資公司需要向證券交易委員會（SEC）提交 13F 表格。這些文件記錄了投資基金在最近一個季度內買入和賣出的股票，為投資者提供了 “聰明資金” 尋找價值和增長的方向。</p>
</div><p>In recent years, billionaire money manager Stanley Druckenmiller of the Duquesne Family Office came into the spotlight after the investor admitted he exited semiconductor powerhouse <strong>Nvidia</strong> far too early -- calling his decision a &#34;big mistake.&#34;</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>近年來，億萬富翁投資經理 Stanley Druckenmiller（杜克斯家族辦公室）因承認自己過早退出半導體巨頭 <strong>Nvidia</strong> 而受到關注，他稱自己的決定是一個 “重大錯誤”。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MzA3MTYvZ2V0dHlpbWFnZXMtMTQ5MjMxOTg4NC04LmpwZyZ3PTcwMA" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F830716%2Fgettyimages-1492319884-8.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>圖片來源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><p>Since then, Druckenmiller has reentered the chip landscape -- this time plowing into a key beneficiary of the artificial intelligence (AI) infrastructure boom beyond the usual suspects like Nvidia, <strong>Advanced Micro Devices</strong>, or <strong>Broadcom</strong>.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>自那時以來，Druckenmiller 重新進入了芯片領域，這次他投資了人工智能（AI）基礎設施繁榮的一個關鍵受益者，而不是像 Nvidia、<strong>Advanced Micro Devices</strong> 或 <strong>Broadcom</strong> 這樣的常規選擇。</p>
</div><p>Over the past year, Duquesne has built a solid position in foundry specialist <strong>Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing</strong>(TSM 0.64%). During Q2, Druckenmiller increased his firm's stake in Taiwan Semi by 28% -- bringing its total exposure to roughly 765,000 shares.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在過去一年中，Duquesne 在代工專家 <strong>台積電</strong>（TSM 0.64%）上建立了穩固的持倉。在第二季度，Druckenmiller 將其公司在台積電的股份增加了 28%——使其總持倉約達到 765,000 股。</p>
</div><p>Let's unpack what makes TSMC such a compelling AI chip stock, and assess if now is a good opportunity for you to follow Druckenmiller's lead.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>讓我們來分析一下是什麼讓台積電成為如此引人注目的 AI 芯片股票，並評估現在是否是跟隨 Druckenmiller 的好機會。</p>
</div><h2>Taiwan Semi is rolling on all cylinders, and...</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>台積電全面開花，且...</h2>
</div><p>The chart below highlights revenue and gross profit margin trends throughout the AI revolution for TSMC. With an estimated 68% share of the global foundry market, Taiwan Semi is operating on a level far above rivals like <strong>Samsung</strong> or <strong>Intel</strong> -- giving the company the ability to exercise substantial pricing power for its services.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>下圖突出顯示了台積電在 AI 革命期間的收入和毛利率趨勢。台積電在全球代工市場的估計市場份額為 68%，其運營水平遠高於 <strong>三星</strong> 或 <strong>英特爾</strong> 等競爭對手——這使得公司能夠對其服務行使相當大的定價權。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/f2d6f3a75b1bc91809cf1a55b8cf6514.png" alt="" original-src="https://media.ycharts.com/charts/f2d6f3a75b1bc91809cf1a55b8cf6514.png"/></p>
<p>TSM Revenue (Quarterly) data by YCharts</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>TSM 收入（季度）數據來自 YCharts</p>
</div><h2>...its momentum isn't slowing down</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>...其勢頭並未減弱</h2>
</div><p>At first glance, investors might worry that TSMC's steep revenue growth and expanding profit margins are nearing a peak. But the data suggests otherwise.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>乍一看，投資者可能會擔心台積電的急劇收入增長和擴大的利潤率即將達到頂峯。但數據顯示情況並非如此。</p>
</div><p>Enterprise spending on AI infrastructure is accelerating, led by cloud hyperscalers <strong>Amazon</strong>, <strong>Alphabet</strong>, and <strong>Microsoft</strong>, which are in the midst of a historic capital expenditure (capex) spree to acquire GPUs and networking equipment for next-generation data centers. And it's not just the cloud giants. <strong>Meta Platforms</strong>, <strong>Apple</strong>, and <strong>Tesla</strong> are also investing heavily to advance ambitions in robotics, autonomous driving, and consumer electronics.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>企業在 AI 基礎設施上的支出正在加速，主要由雲計算巨頭 <strong>亞馬遜</strong>、<strong>谷歌母公司 Alphabet</strong> 和 <strong>微軟</strong> 推動，這些公司正在進行歷史性的資本支出（capex）狂潮，以獲取下一代數據中心所需的 GPU 和網絡設備。而不僅僅是雲巨頭，<strong>Meta Platforms</strong>、<strong>蘋果</strong> 和 <strong>特斯拉</strong> 也在大力投資，以推動在機器人技術、自動駕駛和消費電子方面的雄心。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/5f9abda8169974d55201fa3684625d3c.png" alt="" original-src="https://media.ycharts.com/charts/5f9abda8169974d55201fa3684625d3c.png"/></p>
<p>AMZN Capital Expenditures (TTM) data by YCharts</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>AMZN 資本支出（TTM）數據來自 YCharts</p>
</div><p>Collectively, this spending acts as a proxy for GPU demand. Behind the scenes, this is an enormous tailwind for Taiwan Semi -- the foundry responsible for manufacturing these advanced chipsets for Nvidia, AMD, and many others.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>總體而言，這種支出是 GPU 需求的一個代理。在幕後，這對台積電來説是一個巨大的順風。台積電是負責為 Nvidia、AMD 和許多其他公司製造這些先進芯片的代工廠。</p>
</div><p>While Nvidia and AMD capture most of the headline news, TSMC may actually offer the most durable growth prospects in the chip realm. In many ways, the company represents a long-term call option for the global buildout of AI infrastructure.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>雖然 Nvidia 和 AMD 佔據了大部分頭條新聞，但台積電實際上可能在芯片領域提供了最持久的增長前景。在許多方面，該公司代表了全球 AI 基礎設施建設的長期看漲期權。</p>
</div><h2>Is TSMC stock a buy?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>台積電股票值得買嗎？</h2>
</div><p>Valuing TSMC stock is a bit tricky. Like many of peers in the semiconductor landscape, the company has witnessed considerable valuation expansion in recent years. On a simple price-to-earnings (P/E) or forward P/E basis, the stock certainly doesn't look like a bargain.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>對台積電股票的估值有點棘手。與半導體領域的許多同行一樣，該公司近年來經歷了相當大的估值擴張。從簡單的市盈率（P/E）或前瞻市盈率（forward P/E）來看，這隻股票顯然看起來並不便宜。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/ab86484ecf619de62f497622c6e1c183.png" alt="" original-src="https://media.ycharts.com/charts/ab86484ecf619de62f497622c6e1c183.png"/></p>
<p>TSM PE Ratio data by YCharts</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>TSM 市盈率數據來自 YCharts</p>
</div><p>But dig deeper, and a different story emerges. Taiwan Semiconductor trades at a PEG ratio well-below 1 -- suggesting the company may actually be undervalued relative to its future growth potential. That's the kind of setup investors like Druckenmiller might be trying to capitalize on -- a rare opportunity at the intersection of growth and value.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但深入挖掘，另一種故事浮現。台積電的 PEG 比率遠低於 1——這表明該公司相對於其未來增長潛力可能被低估。這正是像 Druckenmiller 這樣的投資者可能試圖利用的機會——在增長與價值交匯處的罕見機會。</p>
</div><p>For long-term investors, I see TSMC as a no-brainer chip stock to buy and hold over the next several years. It may not command the spotlight, but it's playing a supporting role in the infrastructure revolution that underpins the AI chip era.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>對於長期投資者來説，我認為台積電是未來幾年值得購買和持有的芯片股票。它可能不會佔據頭條，但在支撐 AI 芯片時代的基礎設施革命中，它扮演着重要的支持角色。</p>
</div>

Billionaire Stanley Druckenmiller Just Increased Duquesne's Stake in This Monster Artificial Intelligence (AI) Semiconductor Stock (Hint: It's Not Nvidia)

- 投資公司需向 SEC 提交 13F 表格，披露股票買賣情況。  
- 斯坦利·德魯肯米勒重返半導體領域，增持台積電股份 28%。  
- 台積電在 AI 基礎設施中扮演重要角色，未來增長潛力被低估。  

億萬富翁斯坦利·德魯肯米勒剛剛增加了杜克斯在這個龐大的人工智能（AI）半導體股票中的持股（提示：不是英偉達）