<p>包括 <strong>比特幣</strong>(BTC -1.47%) 和 <strong>以太坊</strong>(ETH -2.84%) 在內的許多市場頂級加密貨幣在過去一年中創下了歷史新高。這一看漲的狂潮是由新批准的比特幣和以太坊現貨價格 ETF 推動的，這吸引了更多的機構和零售投資者；利率下降為投機性投資帶來了順風；以及特朗普政府更為友好的加密政策。美元和其他法定貨幣的貶值進一步放大了這些收益。</p>
<p>但隨着加密市場再次升温，投資者是否應該為另一個加密寒冬做好準備？在過去十年中，加密市場已經經歷了三次崩潰——分別是在 2014 年、2018 年和 2022 年——所以可能又要面臨一次下滑。讓我們權衡一下市場的看漲和看跌情況，以便做出決定。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MzAzMDIvZGlnaXRhbC1tb25leS1jdWJlLXBsYWNlZC1vbi1hLWJsb2NrY2hhaW4uanBnJnc9NzAw?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MzAzMDIvZGlnaXRhbC1tb25leS1jdWJlLXBsYWNlZC1vbi1hLWJsb2NrY2hhaW4uanBnJnc9NzAw"/></p>
<p>圖片來源：Getty Images。</p>
<h2>為什麼看漲者預計加密貨幣將繼續上漲</h2>
<p>看漲者預計，隨着利率下降、法定貨幣走軟，以及像比特幣和以太坊這樣的 “藍籌” 加密貨幣被視為 “數字黃金”，加密價格將繼續上漲。過去一年中，機構對其現貨價格 ETF 的大量流入支持了這一看漲論點。</p>
<p>隨着越來越多的機構投資者、公司和國家積累比特幣，它應該會被更廣泛地用於主流支付。其他加密貨幣，尤其是穩定幣，應該會從向數字原生支付的轉變中受益。更多的現實資產也可能在這些區塊鏈上進行代幣化，以實現安全交易。</p>
<p>像以太坊這樣的權益證明（PoS）區塊鏈——支持用於開發去中心化應用（dApps）、非同質化代幣（NFT）和其他加密資產的智能合約——應該會吸引更多開發者。該生態系統的增長應該會挑戰中心化應用商店，同時穩定其基礎加密貨幣的價格。像比特幣這樣的工作量證明（PoW）區塊鏈，由於需要挖礦，將繼續因其稀缺性而被重視。</p>
<p>隨着這一進程的發展，金融監管機構應該會為交易和使用加密貨幣提供更清晰的規則。這種清晰度可能會引發更大的機構投資。長期的地緣政治衝突和宏觀逆風也可能使其成為有吸引力的避險選擇。</p>
<p>最後，歷史不一定要重演。過去十年的三次加密寒冬主要是由於技術故障造成的，這淘汰了較弱的代幣和交易所。</p>
<p>當時最大的比特幣交易所 Mt. Gox 的崩潰引發了 2014 年的加密崩潰。2018 年的崩潰發生在首次代幣發行（ICO）泡沫破裂後，導致全球監管的打擊。2022 年的崩潰應歸咎於利率上升以及幾起高調的失敗（Terra/LUNA、Three Arrows Capital、Celsius 和 FTX）損害了市場的聲譽。</p>
<p>如今，加密市場由像 <strong>Coinbase</strong>(COIN -1.20%) 這樣的穩定交易所主導。ICO 市場現在比過去更加嚴格監管，投資者通常不再熱衷於購買炒作驅動的迷因幣。這就是為什麼 <strong>柴犬幣</strong>(SHIB -1.25%) 的價格在比特幣和以太坊上漲時，今年下跌了超過 40%。</p>
<p>因此，利率是加密市場唯一持久的逆風。美聯儲尚未在 2025 年前降低基準利率，但大多數分析師預計到年底至少會有一到兩次降息。如果發生這種情況，頂級加密貨幣——以及股市——應該會更高。</p>
<h2>對加密貨幣的看跌論點是什麼？</h2>
<p>看跌者預計，利率高企、監管趨嚴以及對能源密集型挖礦方法（尤其是比特幣和其他 PoW 代幣）的反對將再次抑制加密貨幣市場。他們還警告説，市場崩潰可能會使機構投資者遠離比特幣、以太坊和其他加密貨幣的現貨價格 ETF。</p>
<p>此外，隨着面向開發者的 PoS 區塊鏈的擴展，重大安全故障的風險也在增加。如果發生這種情況，開發者可能會對像以太坊這樣的去中心化平台望而卻步——這種放緩將降低其基礎代幣的價值。</p>
<h2>投資者應該有多擔心？</h2>
<p>我相信，加密貨幣的長期看漲論點仍然比看跌論點更強。利率應該會下降，法定貨幣應該會走弱，藍籌加密貨幣應該會成為黃金和其他商品的有吸引力的替代品。因此，即使市場將保持波動，未來幾年可能不會再次崩潰。</p>

ETHE

<p>加密貨幣市場在比特幣和以太坊的引領下，因新批准的 ETF 和有利政策等因素達到了歷史新高。然而，市場過去曾經歷過下跌，潛在崩盤的擔憂依然存在。看漲者認為，利率下降和機構採用增加將支撐價格，而看跌者則警告監管挑戰和能源問題。儘管市場波動性較大，但長期前景依然樂觀，預計將會降息，加密貨幣將成為傳統資產的可行替代品</p>

<p>Many of the market's top cryptocurrencies, including <strong>Bitcoin</strong>(BTC -1.47%) and <strong>Ethereum</strong>(ETH -2.84%), set record highs over the past year. That bullish stampede was driven by the newly approved spot price ETFs for Bitcoin and Ethereum, which brought in more institutional and retail investors; lower interest rates, which generated tailwinds for speculative investments; and the Trump administration's more crypto-friendly policies. The devaluation of the U.S. dollar and other fiat currencies amplified those gains.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>包括 <strong>比特幣</strong>(BTC -1.47%) 和 <strong>以太坊</strong>(ETH -2.84%) 在內的許多市場頂級加密貨幣在過去一年中創下了歷史新高。這一看漲的狂潮是由新批准的比特幣和以太坊現貨價格 ETF 推動的，這吸引了更多的機構和零售投資者；利率下降為投機性投資帶來了順風；以及特朗普政府更為友好的加密政策。美元和其他法定貨幣的貶值進一步放大了這些收益。</p>
</div><p>But as the crypto market heats up again, should investors be bracing for another crypto winter? The crypto market has already crashed three times over the past decade -- in 2014, 2018, and 2022 -- so it might be due for another downturn. Let's weigh the bull and bear cases for the market to decide.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但隨着加密市場再次升温，投資者是否應該為另一個加密寒冬做好準備？在過去十年中，加密市場已經經歷了三次崩潰——分別是在 2014 年、2018 年和 2022 年——所以可能又要面臨一次下滑。讓我們權衡一下市場的看漲和看跌情況，以便做出決定。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MzAzMDIvZGlnaXRhbC1tb25leS1jdWJlLXBsYWNlZC1vbi1hLWJsb2NrY2hhaW4uanBnJnc9NzAw" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F830302%2Fdigital-money-cube-placed-on-a-blockchain.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>圖片來源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><h2>Why the bulls expect cryptocurrencies to keep rising</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>為什麼看漲者預計加密貨幣將繼續上漲</h2>
</div><p>The bulls expect crypto prices to keep rising as interest rates decline, fiat currencies soften, and &#34;blue chip&#34; cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin and Ether are adopted as &#34;digital gold.&#34; The big institutional inflows into their spot price ETFs over the past year support that bullish thesis.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>看漲者預計，隨着利率下降、法定貨幣走軟，以及像比特幣和以太坊這樣的 “藍籌” 加密貨幣被視為 “數字黃金”，加密價格將繼續上漲。過去一年中，機構對其現貨價格 ETF 的大量流入支持了這一看漲論點。</p>
</div><p>As more institutional investors, companies, and countries accumulate Bitcoin, it should be more widely used for mainstream payments. Other cryptocurrencies, especially stablecoins, should benefit from that shift toward digitally native payments. More real-world assets could also be tokenized on those blockchains for secure transactions.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>隨着越來越多的機構投資者、公司和國家積累比特幣，它應該會被更廣泛地用於主流支付。其他加密貨幣，尤其是穩定幣，應該會從向數字原生支付的轉變中受益。更多的現實資產也可能在這些區塊鏈上進行代幣化，以實現安全交易。</p>
</div><p>Proof of stake (PoS) blockchains like Ethereum -- which support the smart contracts used to develop decentralized apps (dApps), non-fungible tokens (NFTs), and other crypto assets -- should draw in more developers. The growth of that ecosystem should challenge centralized app stores while stabilizing the prices of their underlying cryptocurrencies. Proof of work (PoW) blockchains like Bitcoin, which need to be mined, will continue to be valued by their scarcity.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>像以太坊這樣的權益證明（PoS）區塊鏈——支持用於開發去中心化應用（dApps）、非同質化代幣（NFT）和其他加密資產的智能合約——應該會吸引更多開發者。該生態系統的增長應該會挑戰中心化應用商店，同時穩定其基礎加密貨幣的價格。像比特幣這樣的工作量證明（PoW）區塊鏈，由於需要挖礦，將繼續因其稀缺性而被重視。</p>
</div><p>As that happens, financial regulators should provide clearer rules for trading and spending cryptocurrencies. That clarity could spark even bigger institutional investments. Protracted geopolitical conflicts and macro headwinds could also make them appealing safe-haven plays.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>隨着這一進程的發展，金融監管機構應該會為交易和使用加密貨幣提供更清晰的規則。這種清晰度可能會引發更大的機構投資。長期的地緣政治衝突和宏觀逆風也可能使其成為有吸引力的避險選擇。</p>
</div><p>Lastly, history doesn't necessarily have to repeat itself. The three crypto winters of the past decade were mainly caused by technical failures, which weeded out the weaker tokens and exchanges.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>最後，歷史不一定要重演。過去十年的三次加密寒冬主要是由於技術故障造成的，這淘汰了較弱的代幣和交易所。</p>
</div><p>The collapse of Mt. Gox, the largest Bitcoin exchange at the time, triggered the 2014 crypto crash. The 2018 crash occurred after the initial coin offering (ICO) bubble burst and sparked a global regulatory crackdown. The 2022 crash should be blamed on both higher interest rates and several high-profile failures (Terra/LUNA, Three Arrows Capital, Celsius, and FTX) that tarnished the market's reputation.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>當時最大的比特幣交易所 Mt. Gox 的崩潰引發了 2014 年的加密崩潰。2018 年的崩潰發生在首次代幣發行（ICO）泡沫破裂後，導致全球監管的打擊。2022 年的崩潰應歸咎於利率上升以及幾起高調的失敗（Terra/LUNA、Three Arrows Capital、Celsius 和 FTX）損害了市場的聲譽。</p>
</div><p>Today, the crypto market is dominated by stable exchanges like <strong>Coinbase</strong>(COIN -1.20%). The ICO market is now much more tightly regulated than it was in the past, and investors are generally less eager to buy hype-driven meme coins. That's why <strong>Shiba Inu</strong>'s (SHIB -1.25%) price declined more than 40% this year as Bitcoin and Ethereum rallied.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如今，加密市場由像 <strong>Coinbase</strong>(COIN -1.20%) 這樣的穩定交易所主導。ICO 市場現在比過去更加嚴格監管，投資者通常不再熱衷於購買炒作驅動的迷因幣。這就是為什麼 <strong>柴犬幣</strong>(SHIB -1.25%) 的價格在比特幣和以太坊上漲時，今年下跌了超過 40%。</p>
</div><p>Therefore, interest rates are the only lasting headwind for the crypto market. The Federal Reserve hasn't cut its benchmark rates for 2025, but most analysts expect at least one or two rate cuts by the end of the year. If that happens, the top cryptocurrencies -- and the stock market -- should soar even higher.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>因此，利率是加密市場唯一持久的逆風。美聯儲尚未在 2025 年前降低基準利率，但大多數分析師預計到年底至少會有一到兩次降息。如果發生這種情況，頂級加密貨幣——以及股市——應該會更高。</p>
</div><h2>What's the bearish case against cryptocurrencies?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>對加密貨幣的看跌論點是什麼？</h2>
</div><p>The bears expect elevated interest rates, tougher regulations, and a backlash against energy-intensive mining methods (especially for Bitcoin and other PoW tokens) to chill the cryptocurrency market again. They also warn that a market crash could drive institutional investors away from the spot price ETFs for Bitcoin, Ether, and other cryptocurrencies.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>看跌者預計，利率高企、監管趨嚴以及對能源密集型挖礦方法（尤其是比特幣和其他 PoW 代幣）的反對將再次抑制加密貨幣市場。他們還警告説，市場崩潰可能會使機構投資者遠離比特幣、以太坊和其他加密貨幣的現貨價格 ETF。</p>
</div><p>Moreover, as developer-oriented PoS blockchains expand, the risk for a major security failure also increases. If that happens, developers could shy away from decentralized platforms like Ethereum -- and that slowdown would reduce the value of its underlying tokens.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>此外，隨着面向開發者的 PoS 區塊鏈的擴展，重大安全故障的風險也在增加。如果發生這種情況，開發者可能會對像以太坊這樣的去中心化平台望而卻步——這種放緩將降低其基礎代幣的價值。</p>
</div><h2>How worried should investors be?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>投資者應該有多擔心？</h2>
</div><p>I believe the bullish long-term case for cryptocurrencies is still stronger than the bearish one. Interest rates should decline, fiat currencies should weaken, and the blue-chip cryptocurrencies should become compelling alternatives to gold and other commodities. So even though the market will stay choppy, it probably won't crash again over the next few years.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>我相信，加密貨幣的長期看漲論點仍然比看跌論點更強。利率應該會下降，法定貨幣應該會走弱，藍籌加密貨幣應該會成為黃金和其他商品的有吸引力的替代品。因此，即使市場將保持波動，未來幾年可能不會再次崩潰。</p>
</div>

投資者是否應該擔心加密貨幣價格的崩盤？