<p>在過去三年中，華爾街上沒有什麼比人工智能（AI）的崛起更引人注目。賦予軟件和系統以人工智能，使其能夠在無需人類監督的情況下做出瞬間決策，這是一個數萬億美元的全球機會。</p>
<p>雖然許多公司都從人工智能的發展中受益，但 <strong>英偉達</strong>（NVDA 1.10%）目前處於領先地位。自 2022 年底以來，其市值增加了 4 萬億美元，其圖形處理單元（GPU）作為推動人工智能加速數據中心決策的 “大腦”。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MzA3MDEvbnZpZGlhLXZveWFnZXItaGVhZHF1YXJ0ZXJzLWFydGlmaWNpYWwtaW50ZWxsaWdlbmNlLWdwdS1haS1zZW1pY29uZHVjdG9yLmpwZyZ3PTcwMA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="700" height="466" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MzA3MDEvbnZpZGlhLXZveWFnZXItaGVhZHF1YXJ0ZXJzLWFydGlmaWNpYWwtaW50ZWxsaWdlbmNlLWdwdS1haS1zZW1pY29uZHVjdG9yLmpwZyZ3PTcwMA"/></p>
<p>圖片來源：英偉達。</p>
<p>對華爾街和投資者來説，最重要的莫過於能夠深入瞭解英偉達的季度運營結果，這些結果將在今天 8 月 27 日收盤後公佈。</p>
<p>儘管華爾街最大的上市公司習慣於輕鬆超越分析師的共識收入和每股收益（EPS）預期，但還有一個不太被談論的指標將最終決定英偉達的 2026 財年第二季度運營結果是令人驚歎還是糟糕的消息。</p>
<h2>英偉達的光輝時刻即將到來</h2>
<p>當英偉達在幾個小時後揭開 “蓋子” 時，華爾街將期待該公司在 2026 財年第二季度實現 460 億美元的銷售額（其財年在 1 月底結束），並每股實現 1.01 美元的 EPS。在之前的四個季度中，英偉達的 EPS 超出了共識預期 0.04 至 0.06 美元。</p>
<p>除了這些頭條數字外，還有其他數據和時間表將吸引投資者的關注。</p>
<p>例如，唐納德·特朗普政府最近給予英偉達向中國出口其 H20 芯片的綠燈，而中國是全球第二大經濟體。在喬·拜登政府的最後兩年以及特朗普第二任期的前六個月，向中國出口高性能 AI-GPU 及相關設備受到限制。隨着這些出口現在重新回到桌面上，投資者將密切關注這將如何影響公司的全年銷售指引。</p>
<p>此外，首席執行官黃仁勳的創新時間表也將成為焦點。黃仁勳表示，他打算每年推出一款新的 AI 先進芯片。投資者應該期待關於 2025 年下半年 Blackwell Ultra 出貨量的更新，以及 Vera Rubin 和 Vera Rubin Ultra 的開發預測，這兩款產品預計將在 2026 年和 2027 年上市。兩者都將基於全新的 Vera 處理器。</p>
<p>黃仁勳的電話會議評論也以強調新開發的合作伙伴關係和正在進行的合作而聞名。例如，黃仁勳與全球最大的芯片製造公司 <strong>台灣半導體制造公司</strong>（通常稱為 “台積電”）建立了緊密的關係，其高帶寬內存的封裝技術是 AI 加速數據中心的必要條件。英偉達希望增加向中國的新/現有 AI 芯片的生產，與台積電的緊密合作可以實現這一目標。</p>
<p>雖然看起來英偉達的舞台已經搭建好，但還有一個指標在 Blackwell Ultra 更新、最近的合作伙伴關係甚至 2026 財年全年銷售指引之上顯得尤為重要。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MzA3MDEvYWNjb3VudGFudC1iYWxhbmNlLXNoZWV0LWNvcnBvcmF0ZS1pbmNvbWUtc3RhdGVtZW50LWVhcm5pbmdzLWNhbGN1bGF0b3ItZ2V0dHkuanBnJnc9NzAw?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="700" height="465" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MzA3MDEvYWNjb3VudGFudC1iYWxhbmNlLXNoZWV0LWNvcnBvcmF0ZS1pbmNvbWUtc3RhdGVtZW50LWVhcm5pbmdzLWNhbGN1bGF0b3ItZ2V0dHkuanBnJnc9NzAw"/></p>
<p>圖片來源：Getty Images。</p>
<h2>該是關注毛利率的時候了</h2>
<p>一個可能決定英偉達成敗的指標是其公認會計原則（GAAP）毛利率指引。</p>
<p>由於人工智能革命，英偉達的 GAAP 毛利率飆升。在低至中 60% 的範圍內徘徊後，其毛利率在 2025 財年第一季度達到了 78.4% 的峯值。這一激增直接反映了對其 Hopper 芯片的需求遠遠超過供應，使得英偉達能夠相對於同行收取 100% 到 300% 的高額溢價。</p>
<p>這種溢價定價能力可能是黃仁勳希望每年推出一款新的 AI-GPU 的主要原因之一。能夠保持公司在計算能力上的優勢，理論上應該使英偉達有理由對其硬件收取溢價。</p>
<p>但可以合理地認為，AI-GPU 的稀缺性是推動英偉達毛利率飆升的主要因素。缺乏可用產品可能比英偉達擁有更優越的數據中心 GPU 更為重要。</p>
<p>使公司毛利率預測備受關注的是英偉達現在面臨的外部和內部競爭的不可否認的加劇。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/1addea4465c752d28f5b46406d8b1ff4.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="720" height="441" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/1addea4465c752d28f5b46406d8b1ff4.png"/></p>
<p>英偉達的 GAAP 毛利率已經連續四個季度下降。NVDA 毛利率（季度）數據來源於 YCharts。</p>
<p>大多數投資者密切關注 <strong>超微半導體</strong>Instinct 系列 AI 加速芯片的開發和生產進展，以及中國華為的 AI 解決方案的推出。然而，對英偉達毛利率的最大威脅可能來自內部。</p>
<p>許多英偉達的主要客户按淨銷售額計算都是 “七大巨頭” 的成員。這些行業領先的企業擁有大量現金流和龐大的數據中心需求，正在為 Hopper 和 Blackwell 芯片花費鉅額資金。問題是，這些企業也在內部開發用於其數據中心的 AI-GPU。儘管它們對 Hopper 或 Blackwell 不是外部威脅，但它們成本更低、供應更充足，並且準備佔據寶貴的數據中心空間。</p>
<p>還有一個未知因素是，黃仁勳的激進創新週期是否最終會對他的公司造成傷害。每 12 個月推出先進芯片的做法威脅到之前一代 AI-GPU（如 Hopper）的價值迅速貶值。這可能會促使企業推遲升級週期和/或選擇成本更低但仍然非常有效的前一代 AI-GPU。這兩種選擇都會對英偉達的 GAAP 毛利率造成不利影響。</p>
<p>所有這些擔憂可能正在我們眼前上演。排除上個季度由於中國 H20 芯片相關費用導致的毛利率大幅下降，該公司的 GAAP 毛利率已經連續四個季度下降。</p>
<p>英偉達的 GAAP 毛利率將向華爾街和投資者透露 AI-GPU 的稀缺性是否仍然存在，以及公司是否保持或預計將保持其溢價定價能力。這是收盤後需要關注的首要運營指標。</p>

英偉達

2 倍做多英偉達 ETF - GraniteShares

南方兩倍做多英偉達

南方兩倍做空英偉達

英偉達期權收益策略 ETF - YieldMax

1 倍做空英偉達 ETF - Direxion

2 倍做多 NVDA ETF - T-Rex

2 倍做空 NVDA ETF - T-Rex

半導體 3 倍做多 - Direxion

<p>英偉達的財報備受期待，華爾街將其毛利率指引視為關鍵指標。由於人工智能的進步，該公司的市場價值顯著上升，但其毛利率已連續四個季度下降。投資者渴望瞭解最近對中國的出口批准和新芯片開發將如何影響銷售指引。英偉達旨在在人工智能 GPU 市場日益激烈的競爭中保持其高端定價能力</p>

<p>Over the past three years, nothing has garnered more attention on Wall Street than the rise of artificial intelligence (AI). Empowering software and systems with AI to make split-second decisions without the need for human oversight is a multitrillion-dollar global opportunity.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在過去三年中，華爾街上沒有什麼比人工智能（AI）的崛起更引人注目。賦予軟件和系統以人工智能，使其能夠在無需人類監督的情況下做出瞬間決策，這是一個數萬億美元的全球機會。</p>
</div><p>While a long list of companies has benefited from the evolution of AI, <strong>Nvidia</strong>(NVDA 1.10%) currently finds itself atop the pedestal. It's added $4 trillion in market value since the end of 2022, with its graphics processing units (GPUs) acting as the &#34;brains&#34; powering decision-making in AI-accelerated data centers.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>雖然許多公司都從人工智能的發展中受益，但 <strong>英偉達</strong>（NVDA 1.10%）目前處於領先地位。自 2022 年底以來，其市值增加了 4 萬億美元，其圖形處理單元（GPU）作為推動人工智能加速數據中心決策的 “大腦”。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MzA3MDEvbnZpZGlhLXZveWFnZXItaGVhZHF1YXJ0ZXJzLWFydGlmaWNpYWwtaW50ZWxsaWdlbmNlLWdwdS1haS1zZW1pY29uZHVjdG9yLmpwZyZ3PTcwMA" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F830701%2Fnvidia-voyager-headquarters-artificial-intelligence-gpu-ai-semiconductor.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Nvidia.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>圖片來源：英偉達。</p>
</div><p>Perhaps nothing is more important to Wall Street and investors than being able to dive into Nvidia's quarterly operating results, which are due after the closing bell today, Aug. 27.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>對華爾街和投資者來説，最重要的莫過於能夠深入瞭解英偉達的季度運營結果，這些結果將在今天 8 月 27 日收盤後公佈。</p>
</div><p>Although Wall Street's largest publicly traded company has made it a habit of handily outpacing consensus revenue and earnings per share (EPS) estimates from analysts, there's a less-talked-about metric that'll ultimately determine if Nvidia's fiscal second-quarter operating results are incredible or terrible news.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>儘管華爾街最大的上市公司習慣於輕鬆超越分析師的共識收入和每股收益（EPS）預期，但還有一個不太被談論的指標將最終決定英偉達的 2026 財年第二季度運營結果是令人驚歎還是糟糕的消息。</p>
</div><h2>The stage is set for Nvidia to shine</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>英偉達的光輝時刻即將到來</h2>
</div><p>When Nvidia lifts the proverbial hood just hours from now, Wall Street will be looking for the company to have generated $46 billion in second-quarter sales for fiscal 2026 (its fiscal year ends in late January), and deliver $1.01 per share in EPS. Nvidia has surpassed consensus EPS projections by $0.04 to $0.06 in each of the previous four quarters.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>當英偉達在幾個小時後揭開 “蓋子” 時，華爾街將期待該公司在 2026 財年第二季度實現 460 億美元的銷售額（其財年在 1 月底結束），並每股實現 1.01 美元的 EPS。在之前的四個季度中，英偉達的 EPS 超出了共識預期 0.04 至 0.06 美元。</p>
</div><p>Beyond these headline numbers, there are other figures and timelines investors will be focusing on.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>除了這些頭條數字外，還有其他數據和時間表將吸引投資者的關注。</p>
</div><p>For example, the Donald Trump administration somewhat recently gave Nvidia the green light to export its H20 chip to China, the world's No. 2 economy by gross domestic product. During the final two years and change of the Joe Biden administration, and Trump's first six months in office for his second term, the export of high-powered AI-GPUs and related equipment to China was restricted. With these exports now back on the table, investors will be keen to see how this impacts the company's full-year sales guidance.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>例如，唐納德·特朗普政府最近給予英偉達向中國出口其 H20 芯片的綠燈，而中國是全球第二大經濟體。在喬·拜登政府的最後兩年以及特朗普第二任期的前六個月，向中國出口高性能 AI-GPU 及相關設備受到限制。隨着這些出口現在重新回到桌面上，投資者將密切關注這將如何影響公司的全年銷售指引。</p>
</div><p>Additionally, CEO Jensen Huang's innovation timeline is bound to come into focus. Huang has stated his intent to bring a new AI-advanced chip to market on an annual basis. Investors should expect updates on the ramp up of Blackwell Ultra shipments in the latter-half of 2025, as well as development projections for Vera Rubin and Vera Rubin Ultra, which are believed to be coming to market by 2026 and 2027, respectively. Both will be operating on the all-new Vera processor.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>此外，首席執行官黃仁勳的創新時間表也將成為焦點。黃仁勳表示，他打算每年推出一款新的 AI 先進芯片。投資者應該期待關於 2025 年下半年 Blackwell Ultra 出貨量的更新，以及 Vera Rubin 和 Vera Rubin Ultra 的開發預測，這兩款產品預計將在 2026 年和 2027 年上市。兩者都將基於全新的 Vera 處理器。</p>
</div><p>Huang's conference call commentary is also known for highlighting newly developed partnerships and collaborations, as well as those currently in the works. For instance, Huang has built a close-knit relationship with the world's largest chip fabrication company <strong>Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing</strong> (commonly known as &#34;TSMC&#34;), whose packaging technology of high-bandwidth memory is a necessity for AI-accelerated data centers. Nvidia would love to increase production of new/existing AI chips to China, and working closely with TSMC can make that happen.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>黃仁勳的電話會議評論也以強調新開發的合作伙伴關係和正在進行的合作而聞名。例如，黃仁勳與全球最大的芯片製造公司 <strong>台灣半導體制造公司</strong>（通常稱為 “台積電”）建立了緊密的關係，其高帶寬內存的封裝技術是 AI 加速數據中心的必要條件。英偉達希望增加向中國的新/現有 AI 芯片的生產，與台積電的緊密合作可以實現這一目標。</p>
</div><p>While the stage would appear to be set for Nvidia to thrive, there's another metric that stands head-and-shoulders above Blackwell Ultra updates, recent partnerships, and even fiscal 2026 full-year sales guidance.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>雖然看起來英偉達的舞台已經搭建好，但還有一個指標在 Blackwell Ultra 更新、最近的合作伙伴關係甚至 2026 財年全年銷售指引之上顯得尤為重要。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MzA3MDEvYWNjb3VudGFudC1iYWxhbmNlLXNoZWV0LWNvcnBvcmF0ZS1pbmNvbWUtc3RhdGVtZW50LWVhcm5pbmdzLWNhbGN1bGF0b3ItZ2V0dHkuanBnJnc9NzAw" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F830701%2Faccountant-balance-sheet-corporate-income-statement-earnings-calculator-getty.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>圖片來源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><h2>It's time to shine a light on gross margin</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>該是關注毛利率的時候了</h2>
</div><p>The one metric that has the potential to make or break Nvidia is its generally accepted accounting principles (GAAP) gross margin guidance.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>一個可能決定英偉達成敗的指標是其公認會計原則（GAAP）毛利率指引。</p>
</div><p>Nvidia's GAAP gross margin has soared thanks to the AI revolution. After hovering in the low-to-mid 60% range, its gross margin catapulted to a peak of 78.4% during the first quarter of fiscal 2025. This spike is a direct reflection of demand for its Hopper chip handily outstripping supply, which allowed Nvidia to charge a hearty premium of 100% to 300% per chip, relative to its peers.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>由於人工智能革命，英偉達的 GAAP 毛利率飆升。在低至中 60% 的範圍內徘徊後，其毛利率在 2025 財年第一季度達到了 78.4% 的峯值。這一激增直接反映了對其 Hopper 芯片的需求遠遠超過供應，使得英偉達能夠相對於同行收取 100% 到 300% 的高額溢價。</p>
</div><p>This premium pricing power is probably one of the main reasons Jensen Huang wants to bring a new AI-GPU to market on an annual basis. Being able to maintain his company's compute edge should, on paper, afford Nvidia a reason to charge a premium for its hardware.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這種溢價定價能力可能是黃仁勳希望每年推出一款新的 AI-GPU 的主要原因之一。能夠保持公司在計算能力上的優勢，理論上應該使英偉達有理由對其硬件收取溢價。</p>
</div><p>But a solid argument can be made that AI-GPU scarcity has been the primary driver of Nvidia's soaring gross margin. A lack of available product has potentially mattered much more than Nvidia boasting superior data-center GPUs.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但可以合理地認為，AI-GPU 的稀缺性是推動英偉達毛利率飆升的主要因素。缺乏可用產品可能比英偉達擁有更優越的數據中心 GPU 更為重要。</p>
</div><p>What puts the company's gross margin forecast squarely in the spotlight is the undeniable ramp in external and internal competition Nvidia is now contending with.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>使公司毛利率預測備受關注的是英偉達現在面臨的外部和內部競爭的不可否認的加劇。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/1addea4465c752d28f5b46406d8b1ff4.png" alt="" original-src="https://media.ycharts.com/charts/1addea4465c752d28f5b46406d8b1ff4.png"/></p>
<p>Nvidia's GAAP gross margin has declined for four consecutive quarters. NVDA Gross Profit Margin (Quarterly) data by YCharts.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>英偉達的 GAAP 毛利率已經連續四個季度下降。NVDA 毛利率（季度）數據來源於 YCharts。</p>
</div><p>Most investors are closely following the development and production ramp of <strong>Advanced Micro Devices</strong> Instinct series AI-accelerating chips, as well as the rollout of China-based Huawei's AI solutions. However, the greatest threat to Nvidia's gross margin possibly comes from within.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>大多數投資者密切關注 <strong>超微半導體</strong>Instinct 系列 AI 加速芯片的開發和生產進展，以及中國華為的 AI 解決方案的推出。然而，對英偉達毛利率的最大威脅可能來自內部。</p>
</div><p>Many of Nvidia's top customers by net sales are members of the &#34;Magnificent Seven.&#34; Industry-leading businesses with boatloads of cash flow and mammoth data center needs are spending big bucks on Hopper and Blackwell chips. The problem is these same businesses are also internally developing AI-GPUs for use in their data centers. Though they're not an external threat to Hopper or Blackwell, they're less costly, more readily available, and poised to take up valuable data center real estate.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>許多英偉達的主要客户按淨銷售額計算都是 “七大巨頭” 的成員。這些行業領先的企業擁有大量現金流和龐大的數據中心需求，正在為 Hopper 和 Blackwell 芯片花費鉅額資金。問題是，這些企業也在內部開發用於其數據中心的 AI-GPU。儘管它們對 Hopper 或 Blackwell 不是外部威脅，但它們成本更低、供應更充足，並且準備佔據寶貴的數據中心空間。</p>
</div><p>There's also the unknown of whether Huang's aggressive innovation cycle will ultimately end up hurting his company. Bringing advanced chips to market every 12 months threatens to rapidly depreciate the value of prior-generation AI-GPUs, such as Hopper. This could encourage businesses to delay upgrade cycles and/or opt for less costly but still very effective prior-generation AI-GPUs. Both decisions would be detrimental to Nvidia's GAAP gross margin.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>還有一個未知因素是，黃仁勳的激進創新週期是否最終會對他的公司造成傷害。每 12 個月推出先進芯片的做法威脅到之前一代 AI-GPU（如 Hopper）的價值迅速貶值。這可能會促使企業推遲升級週期和/或選擇成本更低但仍然非常有效的前一代 AI-GPU。這兩種選擇都會對英偉達的 GAAP 毛利率造成不利影響。</p>
</div><p>All of these fears may be playing out before our very eyes. Excluding the steep drop-off in gross margin during the previous quarter, which was related to a charge on H20 chips for China, the company's GAAP gross margin has fallen for four consecutive quarters.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>所有這些擔憂可能正在我們眼前上演。排除上個季度由於中國 H20 芯片相關費用導致的毛利率大幅下降，該公司的 GAAP 毛利率已經連續四個季度下降。</p>
</div><p>Nvidia's GAAP gross margin will clue Wall Street and investors into whether AI-GPU scarcity still persists, and if the company has maintained, or expects to retain, its premium pricing power. It's the premier operating metric to home in on after the closing bell.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>英偉達的 GAAP 毛利率將向華爾街和投資者透露 AI-GPU 的稀缺性是否仍然存在，以及公司是否保持或預計將保持其溢價定價能力。這是收盤後需要關注的首要運營指標。</p>
</div>

Nvidia Earnings Day Has Arrived, and This Metric Will Determine If It's Incredible or Terrible News (Hint: It's Not Sales or EPS)

- Nvidia 在 2022 年底以來增加了 4 萬億美元市值。  
- 投資者關注其第二季度銷售額和每股收益的預期。  
- GAAP 毛利率的變化將影響 Nvidia 的市場競爭力。  

英偉達的財報日已經到來，這項指標將決定這是令人驚喜還是糟糕的消息（提示：不是銷售額或每股收益）