<h4><strong>英偉達財報前瞻</strong></h4>
<p>請點擊這裏查看 <strong>NVIDIA Corp</strong> NVDA 的放大圖表。</p>
<p>請注意以下幾點：</p>
<ul>
<li>本文討論的是大局，而非個別股票。NVDA 的圖表用於説明這一觀點。</li>
<li>圖表顯示，即使在美聯儲主席鮑威爾暗示即將降息後，股市大幅上漲，NVDA 股票仍未能進入區域 1（阻力位）。</li>
<li>圖表上的成交量顯示，週五的上漲並未伴隨大量成交。這表明在財報發佈前缺乏信心。</li>
<li>圖表顯示趨勢線已被突破。</li>
<li>圖表上的相對強弱指數（RSI）顯示 NVDA 股票不再超賣。</li>
<li>英偉達將在週三常規交易結束後發佈財報。</li>
<li><strong>英偉達財報的私下預期數字高於共識數字。</strong> 私下預期數字是分析師與其最佳客户私下分享的數字。私下預期數字通常與同一分析師為公眾發佈的共識數字不同。分析師通常只向其最佳客户提供私下預期數字，而不向公眾提供。</li>
<li><strong>在我們的分析中，英偉達的財報將是對人工智能反彈的考驗。</strong></li>
<li><strong>英特爾公司</strong> INTC 因美國政府將持有約 10% 的股份而上漲。雖然市場熱潮未能察覺，但在我們的分析中，這對英特爾是負面的。原因是英特爾之前將從政府的先前項目中獲得免費注資，但現在英特爾需要以約 10% 的股份來支付。這對現有股東來説是巨大的稀釋。我們已發出信號，建議在 INTC 股票上逐步獲利，利用其強勢表現。</li>
<li>週五，股市在鮑威爾暗示九月降息後表現得非常樂觀。</li>
</ul>
<blockquote>
<p>在我們的分析中，九月降息的概率現在為 95%。只有在九月的通脹數據顯著惡於預期時，降息才可能不會發生。</p>
</blockquote>
<ul>
<li>謹慎的投資者應注意以下關鍵點：
<ul>
<li>目前尚不清楚九月的降息幅度是 25 個基點還是 50 個基點。</li>
<li>目前尚不清楚本輪降息將有多少次。</li>
<li>股市正在預期明年將有五次降息。</li>
<li>通脹繼續高於美聯儲的 2% 目標。</li>
</ul>
</li>
</ul>
<h4><strong>資金流入中國股票</strong></h4>
<p>隨着投資者認為中國在與美國的貿易談判中佔據上風，資金持續流入中國股票。香港恒生指數達到了近四年來的最高水平，而中國的上海綜合指數則達到了自 2015 年以來的最高水平。</p>
<p>作為完全披露，內地中國 ETF <strong>Xtrackers Hvst CSI 300 China A Shs ETF Class A</strong> ASHR 和香港 ETF <strong>iShares China Large-Cap ETF</strong> FXI 在我們的投資組合中。</p>
<h4><strong>熱錢與聰明資金在股票中的表現</strong></h4>
<p>投資者可以通過了解 SPY 和 QQQ 的資金流動來獲得優勢。通過了解聰明資金何時購買股票、黃金和石油，投資者可以獲得更大的優勢。黃金最受歡迎的 ETF 是 <strong>SPDR Gold Trust</strong> (GLD)。白銀最受歡迎的 ETF 是 <strong>iShares Silver Trust</strong> (SLV)。石油最受歡迎的 ETF 是 <strong>United States Oil ETF</strong> (USO)。</p>
<h4><strong>比特幣</strong></h4>
<p><strong>比特幣</strong> BTC/USD 正在經歷拋售。<strong>看起來比特幣鯨魚利用鮑威爾講話引發的零售投資者的熱情，在強勢中拋售比特幣。</strong></p>
<h4><strong>現在該做什麼</strong></h4>
<p>考慮繼續持有良好的、長期的現有頭寸。根據個人風險偏好，考慮由現金或國債、短期戰術交易以及短期到中期對沖組成的保護帶。這是一種保護自己並同時參與上漲的好方法。</p>
<p>您可以通過將現金添加到對沖中來確定您的保護帶。保護的高帶適合年長或保守的人。保護的低帶適合年輕或激進的人。如果您不進行對沖，總現金水平應高於上述所述，但顯著低於現金加對沖的總和。</p>
<p>0% 的保護帶將非常看漲，表明全額投資且現金為 0%。100% 的保護帶將非常看跌，表明需要通過現金和對沖或激進的賣空進行強有力的保護。</p>
<p><strong>值得提醒的是，如果您沒有持有足夠的現金，就無法利用即將到來的新機會。</strong> 在調整對沖水平時，考慮調整股票頭寸（非 ETF）的部分止損數量；考慮對剩餘數量使用更寬的止損，併為高貝塔股票留出更多空間。高貝塔股票是指那些波動幅度大於市場的股票。</p>
<h4><strong>傳統 60/40 投資組合</strong></h4>
<p>基於概率的風險回報調整考慮到通脹，目前並不支持長期戰略債券配置。</p>
<p>那些希望堅持傳統 60% 股票和 40% 債券配置的人，可以考慮僅關注高質量債券和五年期或更短的債券。那些願意在投資中引入複雜性的投資者，可以考慮在此時將債券 ETF 作為戰術頭寸，而非戰略頭寸。</p>
<p><strong><em>Benzinga 免責聲明：本文來自一位未付的外部貢獻者。它不代表 Benzinga 的報道，並且未經過內容或準確性的編輯。</em></strong></p>

英偉達

英特爾

2 倍做多英偉達 ETF - GraniteShares

南方兩倍做多英偉達

南方兩倍做空英偉達

英偉達期權收益策略 ETF - YieldMax

1 倍做空英偉達 ETF - Direxion

2 倍做多 NVDA ETF - T-Rex

2 倍做空 NVDA ETF - T-Rex

半導體 3 倍做多 - Direxion

<p>英偉達即將發佈的財報被視為人工智能反彈的關鍵測試，分析師的私下預期數字超過了市場共識。儘管在美聯儲主席鮑威爾暗示降息後，股市近期出現了上漲，但英偉達的股票並未顯示出強勁的成交量或信心。同時，英特爾面臨稀釋，因為美國政府獲得了 10% 的股份，這促使市場建議部分獲利了結。投資者被建議保持長期持倉，同時考慮保護性現金或對沖，特別是在持續的通脹和潛在的降息背景下</p>

<h4><strong>Nvidia Earnings Ahead</strong></h4>
<div class="lb-trans"><h4><strong>英偉達財報前瞻</strong></h4>
</div><p>Please click here for an enlarged chart of <strong>NVIDIA Corp</strong> NVDA.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>請點擊這裏查看 <strong>NVIDIA Corp</strong> NVDA 的放大圖表。</p>
</div><p>Note the following:</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>請注意以下幾點：</p>
</div><ul>
<li>This article is about the big picture, not an individual stock. The chart of NVDA is being used to illustrate the point.</li>
<li>The chart shows that even after the large move up in the stock market after Fed Chair Powell hinted a rate cut is ahead, NVDA stock was not able to enter zone 1 (resistance).</li>
<li>Volume on the chart shows that the move up on Friday was not on heavy volume. This indicates a lack of conviction ahead of earnings.</li>
<li>The chart shows the trendline has been broken.</li>
<li>RSI on the chart shows NVDA stock is no longer oversold.</li>
<li>Nvidia reports earnings after the regular session close on Wednesday.</li>
<li><strong>Whisper numbers for Nvidia earnings are higher than the consensus numbers.</strong> Whisper numbers are the numbers analysts privately share with their best clients. Whisper numbers are often different from consensus numbers published by the same analysts for public consumption. Analysts typically provide whisper numbers only to their best clients, and not the public.</li>
<li><strong>In our analysis, Nvidia earnings will be a test of the AI rally.</strong></li>
<li><strong>Intel Corp</strong> INTC has run up on the news that the U.S. government is taking about a 10% stake. The momo crowd is oblivious, but in our analysis, this is negative for Intel. The reason is Intel was previously going to get a free infusion from prior government programs but now Intel is paying for it with about 10% of the company. <strong>This is a massive dilution for existing shareholders.</strong> We have given a signal to take more partial profits on INTC stock, taking advantage of the strength.</li>
<li>The stock market was euphoric on Friday after Powell hinted at a rate cut in September.</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li>本文討論的是大局，而非個別股票。NVDA 的圖表用於説明這一觀點。</li>
<li>圖表顯示，即使在美聯儲主席鮑威爾暗示即將降息後，股市大幅上漲，NVDA 股票仍未能進入區域 1（阻力位）。</li>
<li>圖表上的成交量顯示，週五的上漲並未伴隨大量成交。這表明在財報發佈前缺乏信心。</li>
<li>圖表顯示趨勢線已被突破。</li>
<li>圖表上的相對強弱指數（RSI）顯示 NVDA 股票不再超賣。</li>
<li>英偉達將在週三常規交易結束後發佈財報。</li>
<li><strong>英偉達財報的私下預期數字高於共識數字。</strong> 私下預期數字是分析師與其最佳客户私下分享的數字。私下預期數字通常與同一分析師為公眾發佈的共識數字不同。分析師通常只向其最佳客户提供私下預期數字，而不向公眾提供。</li>
<li><strong>在我們的分析中，英偉達的財報將是對人工智能反彈的考驗。</strong></li>
<li><strong>英特爾公司</strong> INTC 因美國政府將持有約 10% 的股份而上漲。雖然市場熱潮未能察覺，但在我們的分析中，這對英特爾是負面的。原因是英特爾之前將從政府的先前項目中獲得免費注資，但現在英特爾需要以約 10% 的股份來支付。這對現有股東來説是巨大的稀釋。我們已發出信號，建議在 INTC 股票上逐步獲利，利用其強勢表現。</li>
<li>週五，股市在鮑威爾暗示九月降息後表現得非常樂觀。</li>
</ul>
</div><blockquote>
<p>In our analysis, there is now a 95% rate cut in September. Only if the September inflation data is significantly worse than expectations, the rate cut may not happen.</p>
</blockquote>
<div class="lb-trans"><blockquote>
<p>在我們的分析中，九月降息的概率現在為 95%。只有在九月的通脹數據顯著惡於預期時，降息才可能不會發生。</p>
</blockquote>
</div><ul>
<li>Prudent investors should note the following key points:
<ul>
<li>There is no clarity if the September rate cut will be 25 bps or 50 bps.</li>
<li>There is no clarity as to how many rate cuts there will be in this cycle.</li>
<li>The stock market is discounting five rate cuts going into next year.</li>
<li>Inflation continues to run higher than the Fed's 2% target..</li>
</ul>
</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li>謹慎的投資者應注意以下關鍵點：
<ul>
<li>目前尚不清楚九月的降息幅度是 25 個基點還是 50 個基點。</li>
<li>目前尚不清楚本輪降息將有多少次。</li>
<li>股市正在預期明年將有五次降息。</li>
<li>通脹繼續高於美聯儲的 2% 目標。</li>
</ul>
</li>
</ul>
</div><h4><strong>Money Flowing Into Chinese Stocks</strong></h4>
<div class="lb-trans"><h4><strong>資金流入中國股票</strong></h4>
</div><p>Money continues to move into Chinese stocks as investors perceive that China has gotten the upper hand in trade negotiations with the U.S. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng reached its highest level in nearly four years, and China’s Shanghai Composite hit the highest level since 2015.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>隨着投資者認為中國在與美國的貿易談判中佔據上風，資金持續流入中國股票。香港恒生指數達到了近四年來的最高水平，而中國的上海綜合指數則達到了自 2015 年以來的最高水平。</p>
</div><p>As full disclosure, mainland China ETF <strong>Xtrackers Hvst CSI 300 China A Shs ETF Class A</strong> ASHR and Hong Kong ETF <strong>iShares China Large-Cap ETF</strong> FXI are in our portfolio.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>作為完全披露，內地中國 ETF <strong>Xtrackers Hvst CSI 300 China A Shs ETF Class A</strong> ASHR 和香港 ETF <strong>iShares China Large-Cap ETF</strong> FXI 在我們的投資組合中。</p>
</div><h4><strong>Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks</strong></h4>
<div class="lb-trans"><h4><strong>熱錢與聰明資金在股票中的表現</strong></h4>
</div><p>Investors can gain an edge by knowing money flows in SPY and QQQ. Investors can get a bigger edge by knowing when smart money is buying stocks, gold, and oil. The most popular ETF for gold is <strong>SPDR Gold Trust</strong> (GLD). The most popular ETF for silver is <strong>iShares Silver Trust</strong>(SLV). The most popular ETF for oil is <strong>United States Oil ETF</strong> (USO).</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>投資者可以通過了解 SPY 和 QQQ 的資金流動來獲得優勢。通過了解聰明資金何時購買股票、黃金和石油，投資者可以獲得更大的優勢。黃金最受歡迎的 ETF 是 <strong>SPDR Gold Trust</strong> (GLD)。白銀最受歡迎的 ETF 是 <strong>iShares Silver Trust</strong> (SLV)。石油最受歡迎的 ETF 是 <strong>United States Oil ETF</strong> (USO)。</p>
</div><h4><strong>Bitcoin</strong></h4>
<div class="lb-trans"><h4><strong>比特幣</strong></h4>
</div><p><strong>Bitcoin</strong> BTC/USD is seeing selling. <strong>It appears bitcoin whales took advantage of the euphoria among retail investors caused by Powell's speech to sell bitcoin into the strength.</strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>比特幣</strong> BTC/USD 正在經歷拋售。<strong>看起來比特幣鯨魚利用鮑威爾講話引發的零售投資者的熱情，在強勢中拋售比特幣。</strong></p>
</div><h4><strong>What To Do Now</strong></h4>
<div class="lb-trans"><h4><strong>現在該做什麼</strong></h4>
</div><p>Consider continuing to hold good, very long term, existing positions. Based on individual risk preference, consider a protection band consisting of cash or Treasury bills or short-term tactical trades as well as short to medium term hedges and short term hedges. This is a good way to protect yourself and participate in the upside at the same time.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>考慮繼續持有良好的、長期的現有頭寸。根據個人風險偏好，考慮由現金或國債、短期戰術交易以及短期到中期對沖組成的保護帶。這是一種保護自己並同時參與上漲的好方法。</p>
</div><p>You can determine your protection bands by adding cash to hedges. The high band of the protection is appropriate for those who are older or conservative. The low band of the protection is appropriate for those who are younger or aggressive. If you do not hedge, the total cash level should be more than stated above but significantly less than cash plus hedges.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>您可以通過將現金添加到對沖中來確定您的保護帶。保護的高帶適合年長或保守的人。保護的低帶適合年輕或激進的人。如果您不進行對沖，總現金水平應高於上述所述，但顯著低於現金加對沖的總和。</p>
</div><p>A protection band of 0% would be very bullish and would indicate full investment with 0% in cash. A protection band of 100% would be very bearish and would indicate a need for aggressive protection with cash and hedges or aggressive short selling.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>0% 的保護帶將非常看漲，表明全額投資且現金為 0%。100% 的保護帶將非常看跌，表明需要通過現金和對沖或激進的賣空進行強有力的保護。</p>
</div><p><strong>It is worth reminding that you cannot take advantage of new upcoming opportunities if you are not holding enough cash.</strong> When adjusting hedge levels, consider adjusting partial stop quantities for stock positions (non ETF); consider using wider stops on remaining quantities and also allowing more room for high beta stocks. High beta stocks are the ones that move more than the market.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>值得提醒的是，如果您沒有持有足夠的現金，就無法利用即將到來的新機會。</strong> 在調整對沖水平時，考慮調整股票頭寸（非 ETF）的部分止損數量；考慮對剩餘數量使用更寬的止損，併為高貝塔股票留出更多空間。高貝塔股票是指那些波動幅度大於市場的股票。</p>
</div><h4><strong>Traditional 60/40 Portfolio</strong></h4>
<div class="lb-trans"><h4><strong>傳統 60/40 投資組合</strong></h4>
</div><p>Probability based risk reward adjusted for inflation does not favor long duration strategic bond allocation at this time.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>基於概率的風險回報調整考慮到通脹，目前並不支持長期戰略債券配置。</p>
</div><p>Those who want to stick to traditional 60% allocation to stocks and 40% to bonds may consider focusing on only high quality bonds and bonds of five year duration or less. Those willing to bring sophistication to their investing may consider using bond ETFs as tactical positions and not strategic positions at this time.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>那些希望堅持傳統 60% 股票和 40% 債券配置的人，可以考慮僅關注高質量債券和五年期或更短的債券。那些願意在投資中引入複雜性的投資者，可以考慮在此時將債券 ETF 作為戰術頭寸，而非戰略頭寸。</p>
</div><p><strong><em>Benzinga Disclaimer: This article is from an unpaid external contributor. It does not represent Benzinga’s reporting and has not been edited for content or accuracy.</em></strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong><em>Benzinga 免責聲明：本文來自一位未付的外部貢獻者。它不代表 Benzinga 的報道，並且未經過內容或準確性的編輯。</em></strong></p>
</div>

Nvidia Earnings Will Test AI Rally

- Nvidia 股票在即將公佈財報前未能突破阻力區，成交量不足。  
- 投資者對中國股票的興趣上升，香港恒生指數創四年新高。  
- 比特幣鯨魚在市場樂觀情緒中拋售，建議持有長期優質資產。  

英偉達的財報將檢驗人工智能市場的上漲趨勢