<p><strong>伯克希爾哈撒韋</strong>(BRK.A 1.06%)(BRK.B 0.87%) 在 2016 年第一季度首次購買了 <strong>蘋果</strong>(AAPL 0.52%) 的股票，距今已有九年多。沃倫·巴菲特負責該集團的資本配置決策，他意識到蘋果是一個強大且持久的消費品牌。這項投資表現相當不錯，因為自 2016 年初以來，這隻被稱為 “七大奇蹟” 的股票上漲了 766%（截至 8 月 26 日）。</p>
<p>然而，奧馬哈的先知似乎變得不那麼看好。從 2023 年第四季度開始，伯克希爾已出售了 6.35 億股蘋果股票，過去七個季度中有五個季度進行了銷售。僅在今年的第二季度，就出售了 2000 萬股。目前蘋果的持股價值為 640 億美元，佔伯克希爾投資組合的 21.4%。</p>
<p>蘋果仍然是巴菲特領導的企業中最大的單一持倉，因為它擁有 2.8 億股這家科技巨頭的股票。但這些近期的舉動到底是怎麼回事？</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MzA1MjUvYnVmZmV0dC12aWV3LW9mLWxlZnQtc2lkZS1vZi1oaXMtZmFjZS11cC1jbG9zZS5wbmcmdz03MDA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="700" height="466" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MzA1MjUvYnVmZmV0dC12aWV3LW9mLWxlZnQtc2lkZS1vZi1oaXMtZmFjZS11cC1jbG9zZS5wbmcmdz03MDA"/></p>
<p>圖片來源：The Motley Fool。</p>
<h2>蘋果不是一個顯而易見的投資機會</h2>
<p>蘋果持倉顯著減少的一個可能原因是，這不再是一個穩賺不賠的投資機會。當伯克希爾在近十年前首次開始購買股票時，蘋果的股票估值要低得多。如今情況已不再如此，該股票的市盈率（P/E）為 34.6，遠高於其過去五年和十年的平均水平。</p>
<p>當然，這是一家世界頂級企業。因此，很容易認為蘋果值得這樣的估值。然而，巴菲特可能並不認為從這一點出發能夠實現強勁的回報。</p>
<p>蘋果的增長已經放緩。公平地説，它在第三季度（截至 6 月 28 日）確實實現了 9.6% 的同比收入增長。但這種增速並不可持續。蘋果的銷售額與三年前的同一時期相比僅增長了 13.4%。在如此高的收入基礎上，想要實現有意義的擴張是困難的，同時還要銷售已經廣泛採用的硬件設備。</p>
<h2>預期潛在的税收變化</h2>
<p>巴菲特在商業和投資界已經領導了數十年。正因如此，加上他卓越的成功，他或許比其他人更能洞察市場形勢。蘋果股票的出售可能與奧馬哈先知對未來税收政策變化的看法有關。</p>
<p>很難預測不同的總統政府將如何改變税法。不過，巴菲特可能確實看到了某些端倪。美國聯邦債務高達 36 萬億美元，自大蕭條以來急劇上升。而政府的財政赤字也非常龐大。對此趨勢似乎沒有盡頭。</p>
<p>相信税收可能會增加以資助政府是有道理的。目前的企業税率為 21%。從歷史角度來看，這個税率極低。此外，資本利得税未來也可能會上升。</p>
<p>在山姆大叔可能要求更多税款之前，提前兑現可觀的利潤，看起來是巴菲特的明智之舉。</p>
<h2>為格雷格·阿貝爾做準備</h2>
<p>伯克希爾一直是股票的淨賣方。作為一個在決策過程中優先考慮安全邊際的投資者，巴菲特可能不僅關注蘋果的市盈率，還關注整體市場的估值。這或許可以解釋伯克希爾高達 3440 億美元的現金頭寸。</p>
<p>巴菲特計劃在今年年底退休。他可能正在進行這些操作，以便給他的繼任者格雷格·阿貝爾更多的財務資源進行操作。蘋果無疑是奧馬哈先知做出的最佳投資決策。現在他希望阿貝爾能建立自己的遺產。</p>
<p>蘋果的股東或許應該深入思考伯克希爾和巴菲特出售蘋果的原因。也許現在是跟隨這些舉動的好時機。</p>

伯克希爾哈撒韋-B

伯克希爾哈撒韋-A

蘋果

2 倍做多 AAPL ETF - GraniteShares

蘋果每日 1 倍做空 ETF - Direxion

蘋果每日 2 倍做多 ETF - Direxion

AAPX

AAPY

APLY

<p>伯克希爾哈撒韋已減少其在蘋果的持股，自 2023 年第四季度以來出售了 6.35 億股，其中在 2023 年第二季度出售了 2000 萬股。目前蘋果的持股價值為 640 億美元，佔伯克希爾投資組合的 21.4%。出售的原因包括蘋果的市盈率高達 34.6、增長放緩以及未來可能的税收增加。沃倫·巴菲特可能在為他的接班人格雷格·阿貝爾進行佈局，因為他準備退休。投資者在評估蘋果股票時應考慮這些因素</p>

<p><strong>Berkshire Hathaway</strong>(BRK.A 1.06%)(BRK.B 0.87%) first purchased shares in <strong>Apple</strong>(AAPL 0.52%) more than nine years ago in the first quarter of 2016. Warren Buffett, who oversees capital allocation decisions for the conglomerate, realized that Apple was a powerful and durable consumer brand. That investment has worked out quite well, as the &#34;Magnificent Seven&#34; stock is up 766% since the start of 2016 (as of Aug. 26).</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>伯克希爾哈撒韋</strong>(BRK.A 1.06%)(BRK.B 0.87%) 在 2016 年第一季度首次購買了 <strong>蘋果</strong>(AAPL 0.52%) 的股票，距今已有九年多。沃倫·巴菲特負責該集團的資本配置決策，他意識到蘋果是一個強大且持久的消費品牌。這項投資表現相當不錯，因為自 2016 年初以來，這隻被稱為 “七大奇蹟” 的股票上漲了 766%（截至 8 月 26 日）。</p>
</div><p>However, the Oracle of Omaha has seemingly become less bullish. Since Q4 2023, Berkshire has sold 635 million shares of Apple, with sales happening in five of the past seven quarters. Just in this year's Q2, 20 million shares were divested. The current Apple stake is valued at $64 billion, representing 21.4% of Berkshire's portfolio.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，奧馬哈的先知似乎變得不那麼看好。從 2023 年第四季度開始，伯克希爾已出售了 6.35 億股蘋果股票，過去七個季度中有五個季度進行了銷售。僅在今年的第二季度，就出售了 2000 萬股。目前蘋果的持股價值為 640 億美元，佔伯克希爾投資組合的 21.4%。</p>
</div><p>Apple remains the largest single position for the Buffett-led business, as it owns 280 million shares of the tech giant. But what's the deal with these recent moves?</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>蘋果仍然是巴菲特領導的企業中最大的單一持倉，因為它擁有 2.8 億股這家科技巨頭的股票。但這些近期的舉動到底是怎麼回事？</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MzA1MjUvYnVmZmV0dC12aWV3LW9mLWxlZnQtc2lkZS1vZi1oaXMtZmFjZS11cC1jbG9zZS5wbmcmdz03MDA" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F830525%2Fbuffett-view-of-left-side-of-his-face-up-close.png&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: The Motley Fool.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>圖片來源：The Motley Fool。</p>
</div><h2>Apple isn't a no-brainer opportunity</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>蘋果不是一個顯而易見的投資機會</h2>
</div><p>One possible reason for the significant reduction in the Apple position could come down to the simple fact that this is no longer a home run investment opportunity. When Berkshire first started buying shares nearly a decade ago, Apple shares traded at a much cheaper valuation. This is no longer the case, with the stock selling for a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 34.6, well above its trailing five- and 10-year averages.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>蘋果持倉顯著減少的一個可能原因是，這不再是一個穩賺不賠的投資機會。當伯克希爾在近十年前首次開始購買股票時，蘋果的股票估值要低得多。如今情況已不再如此，該股票的市盈率（P/E）為 34.6，遠高於其過去五年和十年的平均水平。</p>
</div><p>Of course, this is one of the world's greatest businesses. As a result, it's easy to argue that Apple deserves that valuation. However, Buffett probably doesn't see the potential to achieve strong returns from this point forward.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>當然，這是一家世界頂級企業。因此，很容易認為蘋果值得這樣的估值。然而，巴菲特可能並不認為從這一點出發能夠實現強勁的回報。</p>
</div><p>Apple's growth has slowed. To be fair, it did register a 9.6% year-over-year revenue gain in Q3 (ended June 28). But that pace isn't sustainable. Apple's sales were up just 13.4% from the same period exactly three years ago. It's difficult to expand meaningfully from such a high revenue base, while also selling hardware devices that are already widely adopted.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>蘋果的增長已經放緩。公平地説，它在第三季度（截至 6 月 28 日）確實實現了 9.6% 的同比收入增長。但這種增速並不可持續。蘋果的銷售額與三年前的同一時期相比僅增長了 13.4%。在如此高的收入基礎上，想要實現有意義的擴張是困難的，同時還要銷售已經廣泛採用的硬件設備。</p>
</div><h2>Anticipating potential tax changes</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>預期潛在的税收變化</h2>
</div><p>Buffett has been a leader in the business and investing worlds for decades. Because of this, and demonstrated by his incredible success, he's perhaps in tune with the landscape more than anyone else. The Apple share sales could have something to do with the Oracle of Omaha's view that changes will come to tax policy in the future.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>巴菲特在商業和投資界已經領導了數十年。正因如此，加上他卓越的成功，他或許比其他人更能洞察市場形勢。蘋果股票的出售可能與奧馬哈先知對未來税收政策變化的看法有關。</p>
</div><p>It's hard to predict how different presidential administrations will alter the tax code. Buffett might be on to something, though. The U.S. federal debt sits at an alarming $36 trillion, as it has soared since the Great Recession. And the government operates with huge fiscal deficits. There is really no end in sight to this trend.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>很難預測不同的總統政府將如何改變税法。不過，巴菲特可能確實看到了某些端倪。美國聯邦債務高達 36 萬億美元，自大蕭條以來急劇上升。而政府的財政赤字也非常龐大。對此趨勢似乎沒有盡頭。</p>
</div><p>It makes sense to believe that taxes could be increased to fund the government. The current corporate tax rate is 21%. On a historical basis, this is extremely low. Additionally, the capital gains tax could also rise in the future.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>相信税收可能會增加以資助政府是有道理的。目前的企業税率為 21%。從歷史角度來看，這個税率極低。此外，資本利得税未來也可能會上升。</p>
</div><p>Taking sizable profits off the table before Uncle Sam potentially demands more money looks like a smart move on Buffett's part.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在山姆大叔可能要求更多税款之前，提前兑現可觀的利潤，看起來是巴菲特的明智之舉。</p>
</div><h2>Getting ready for Greg Abel</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>為格雷格·阿貝爾做準備</h2>
</div><p>Berkshire has been a net seller of stocks. As someone who prioritizes investing with a margin of safety in his decision-making process, Buffett might not only be concerned about Apple's P/E multiple but also the valuation of the overall market. This could explain Berkshire's monster $344 billion cash position.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>伯克希爾一直是股票的淨賣方。作為一個在決策過程中優先考慮安全邊際的投資者，巴菲特可能不僅關注蘋果的市盈率，還關注整體市場的估值。這或許可以解釋伯克希爾高達 3440 億美元的現金頭寸。</p>
</div><p>Buffett is set to retire as CEO at the end of this year. He could be making these moves to give his successor, Greg Abel, more financial firepower to play with. Apple is arguably the Oracle of Omaha's best investment decision. Now he wants Abel to build his own legacy.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>巴菲特計劃在今年年底退休。他可能正在進行這些操作，以便給他的繼任者格雷格·阿貝爾更多的財務資源進行操作。蘋果無疑是奧馬哈先知做出的最佳投資決策。現在他希望阿貝爾能建立自己的遺產。</p>
</div><p>It might be a good idea for Apple shareholders to think deeply about the reasons Berkshire and Buffett have been selling Apple. Perhaps it's a good time to follow these moves.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>蘋果的股東或許應該深入思考伯克希爾和巴菲特出售蘋果的原因。也許現在是跟隨這些舉動的好時機。</p>
</div>

Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway Trims Apple Stake, Again. What's the Deal?

- 伯克希爾·哈撒韋自 2016 年起開始投資蘋果，現持有價值 640 億美元的股份。  
- 自 2023 年第四季度以來，伯克希爾已出售 6.35 億股蘋果，反映出對未來回報的擔憂。  
- 投資者應關注伯克希爾減持蘋果的原因，可能與税收政策變化有關。  

沃倫·巴菲特的伯克希爾哈撒韋再次減持蘋果股份。這背後有什麼原因？