<p>不可否認，週三的 Powerball 預計獎金為 1.3 億美元，實在令人心動。儘管現金價值要低得多（還要扣除大約 40% 的税），但最終來説，一張 2 美元的彩票仍然可能價值超過 5 億美元。這將是某人投資的 12.8 億百分比回報，假設他們只購買了一張彩票。即使他們購買了多張彩票，這仍然不是一個糟糕的回報。</p>
<p>問題是，贏得獎金的機會僅為 1/2.92 億。也有可能會有多個贏家平分這筆獎金。</p>
<p>不過，向任何敢於下注的人致敬，這種下注的結果更可能導致 100% 的損失……即使這種損失微不足道。</p>
<p>如果你願意承擔這種風險，為什麼不選擇一種風險較低、賠率較高的下注方式，以換取一個相對可觀、可靠的收益呢？換句話説，為什麼不買股票呢？更具體地説，現在為什麼不趁 <strong>Archer Aviation</strong>（ACHR -3.85%）仍在折扣價交易時試一試？</p>
<p>這就是你可能想要這樣做的原因。</p>
<h2>什麼是 Archer Aviation？</h2>
<p>如果你從未聽説過，Archer 是一家初創公司，正在開發電池驅動的小型飛機，最終將用於飛行出租車。</p>
<p>這並不是一個聽起來那麼瘋狂的想法。畢竟，近年來，世界在開發更輕但更強的材料方面取得了重大進展，而電動車行業也使相對輕便且能量密集的鋰電池成為主流。憑藉這兩個關鍵優勢，工程師在飛機設計上受到了更少的限制。</p>
<p>在 Archer，經過他們的努力，最終的結果是一架五座飛機，配備八個強大的可旋轉電動馬達，使其能夠垂直起降（像直升機一樣），但又能以快速的速度水平飛行，升力由機翼提供（像飛機一樣）。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MzExMjEvYXJjaGVyLWF2aWF0aW9uLW1pZG5pZ2h0LmpwZyZ3PTcwMA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MzExMjEvYXJjaGVyLWF2aWF0aW9uLW1pZG5pZ2h0LmpwZyZ3PTcwMA"/></p>
<p>圖片來源：Archer Aviation。</p>
<p>這不僅僅是一個概念。該公司的 Midnight 飛機已有兩個原型機進行了數百次測試飛行。還有六架這樣的飛機正在建造中，其中三架接近完成。</p>
<p>儘管 Midnight 尚未獲得聯邦航空局（FAA）完全認證以供商業使用，但它已獲得了測試新飛機設計所需的幾項初步認證，以確保其下一階段的認證。</p>
<h2>未來看起來光明</h2>
<p>那麼這一切將走向何方？正如所提到的，Archer 的 eVTOL（電動垂直起降）飛機的最終目標是形成空中出租車服務的骨幹。</p>
<p>這並不是一個聽起來那麼瘋狂的想法。哦，曾幾何時，這確實是一個瘋狂的想法。然而，隨着 Archer 的 Midnight 和競爭對手 <strong>Joby Aviation</strong>（JOBY -5.48%）製造的類似飛機不斷證明自己，專家們越來越期待看到這些新型靈活飛行器變得商業可行。</p>
<p>事實上，Archer 已經與航空公司 <strong>United</strong> 建立了合作關係，以在紐約市及周邊地區建立空中出租車服務。相比之下，從曼哈頓市中心到附近任何機場的汽車行程可能需要一個小時或更長時間，而 Archer 的飛機可以在大約 10 分鐘內完成這一點，預計每位乘客的費用在 50 到 100 美元之間。</p>
<p>不過，這不僅僅是紐約市中心。Archer 在阿聯酋的混合直升機停機坪的初步設計已獲得該國民航局的批准，幾周前在阿布扎比開始了測試飛行。Archer Aviation 還被指定為 2028 年將在洛杉磯舉行的夏季奧運會的官方空中出租車服務提供商。鑑於所有這些交易都是在客户等待 Midnight 獲得 FAA 認證之前簽署的，顯然對這架飛機有一定的信心。</p>
<p>該行業也正在迎來相對新的順風。在 6 月，唐納德·特朗普總統簽署了一項行政命令，要求交通部長創建一個 &#34;eVTOL [電動垂直起降] 集成試點計劃（eIPP），作為 BEYOND 計劃的延伸，以加速在美國安全和合法的 eVTOL 運營的部署。&#34; 這只是 Precedence Research 預計美國將在未來到 2034 年之間以近 29% 的年均增長率引領全球飛行出租車業務的原因之一。</p>
<p>在這種背景下，Archer 計劃到 2030 年建立一個能夠每年生產 650 輛 eVTOL 的製造設施，似乎並不不合理。</p>
<h2>風險與潛在回報相匹配</h2>
<p>這家公司仍然面臨許多風險。其中最主要的是 Midnight 的 FAA 批准並不是絕對的定局，即使市場表現得好像它是。而即使 FAA 最終批准它（從現實的角度來看，這似乎更可能），也不能保證消費者會接受電池驅動的飛行出租車，即使它們確實提供相對實惠和快速的旅行，也不能保證公司能夠確保所有所需的着陸區，以在其希望運營的城市建立完整的業務。而且，即使它能做到，也不能保證 Archer 能夠以盈利的方式做到這一切。</p>
<p>不過，每個問題都有可能像希望的那樣順利解決。而且，Archer 一切順利的幾率比你贏得彩票的幾率高出數百萬倍，儘管對投資者的潛在回報遠沒有那麼大。</p>
<p>談到回報，分析師社區表示，Archer Aviation 的股票目前被低估。事實上，目前一年的共識目標價為 12.39 美元，比該股票的現價高出超過 30%。覆蓋該公司的大多數分析師目前對 Archer 的評級為強烈買入。這對於任何新的投機交易來説，都是一個不錯的開端。</p>

ACHR

<p>這篇文章將 Powerball 彩票獎金的吸引力與投資 Archer Aviation 股票進行了比較。文章強調了 Archer 在電池驅動飛行出租車方面的發展，特別提到其原型和合作夥伴關係，包括與聯合航空在紐約市提供空中出租車服務的合作。文章指出，eVTOL 飛機的可行性日益增強，預計飛行出租車市場將以 29% 的年增長率增長，直到 2034 年。它暗示，投資 Archer 可能提供比高風險的 Powerball 賭博更可靠的回報</p>

<p>There's no denying it. Powerball's estimated $1.3 million jackpot for Wednesday's drawing is wildly tempting. Even though the cash value is considerably lower (then take out another 40% or so for taxes), when all is said and done, a winning $2 ticket could still be worth more than a half of a billion dollars. That would be a 12.8-billion-percent return on somebody's investment, assuming they only purchased one ticket. Even if they bought more than one ticket, though, that's still not a bad return.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>不可否認，週三的 Powerball 預計獎金為 1.3 億美元，實在令人心動。儘管現金價值要低得多（還要扣除大約 40% 的税），但最終來説，一張 2 美元的彩票仍然可能價值超過 5 億美元。這將是某人投資的 12.8 億百分比回報，假設他們只購買了一張彩票。即使他們購買了多張彩票，這仍然不是一個糟糕的回報。</p>
</div><p>Problem? There's only a 1-in-292-million chance of winning the jackpot. It's also possible there could be more than one winner who would split this jackpot evenly between them.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>問題是，贏得獎金的機會僅為 1/2.92 億。也有可能會有多個贏家平分這筆獎金。</p>
</div><p>Still, kudos to anyone with the guts to make a bet that is vastly more likely to result in a 100% loss... even if that loss is negligible.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>不過，向任何敢於下注的人致敬，這種下注的結果更可能導致 100% 的損失……即使這種損失微不足道。</p>
</div><p>If you're willing to take on this sort of risk, though, why not take a lower-risk, higher-odds bet with a limited degree of downside in exchange for a respectably sized, reliable upside? In other words, why not buy stocks? More specifically right now, why not take a shot on <strong>Archer Aviation</strong>(ACHR -3.85%) while it's still trading at a discount?</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如果你願意承擔這種風險，為什麼不選擇一種風險較低、賠率較高的下注方式，以換取一個相對可觀、可靠的收益呢？換句話説，為什麼不買股票呢？更具體地説，現在為什麼不趁 <strong>Archer Aviation</strong>（ACHR -3.85%）仍在折扣價交易時試一試？</p>
</div><p>Here's why you might want to do just that.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這就是你可能想要這樣做的原因。</p>
</div><h2>What's Archer Aviation?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>什麼是 Archer Aviation？</h2>
</div><p>If you've never heard of it, Archer is a start-up company developing battery-powered small aircraft that will ultimately be used as flying taxis.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如果你從未聽説過，Archer 是一家初創公司，正在開發電池驅動的小型飛機，最終將用於飛行出租車。</p>
</div><p>It's not nearly as wild an idea as it might sound at first blush. After all, the world has made some serious strides in recent years in terms of developing lighter-yet-stronger materials, while the electric vehicle industry has mainstreamed relatively light and energy-dense lithium-based batteries. With these two key advantages in hand, engineers have been less constrained in their aircraft designs.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這並不是一個聽起來那麼瘋狂的想法。畢竟，近年來，世界在開發更輕但更強的材料方面取得了重大進展，而電動車行業也使相對輕便且能量密集的鋰電池成為主流。憑藉這兩個關鍵優勢，工程師在飛機設計上受到了更少的限制。</p>
</div><p>At Archer, the end result of their efforts has been a five-passenger aircraft with eight powerful pivoting electric motors that allow it to take off and land vertically (like a helicopter), but fly horizontally at a fast clip with its lift provided by its wings (like an airplane).</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在 Archer，經過他們的努力，最終的結果是一架五座飛機，配備八個強大的可旋轉電動馬達，使其能夠垂直起降（像直升機一樣），但又能以快速的速度水平飛行，升力由機翼提供（像飛機一樣）。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MzExMjEvYXJjaGVyLWF2aWF0aW9uLW1pZG5pZ2h0LmpwZyZ3PTcwMA" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F831121%2Farcher-aviation-midnight.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Archer Aviation.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>圖片來源：Archer Aviation。</p>
</div><p>It's no mere concept, either. Two prototypes of the company's Midnight aircraft have already made hundreds of test flights each. Six more such aircraft are under construction, and three of them are near completion.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這不僅僅是一個概念。該公司的 Midnight 飛機已有兩個原型機進行了數百次測試飛行。還有六架這樣的飛機正在建造中，其中三架接近完成。</p>
</div><p>Although the Midnight has not yet been fully certified for commercial use by the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA), it has won several of the initial certifications required to test-fly a new aircraft design in order to secure its next stage of certifications.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>儘管 Midnight 尚未獲得聯邦航空局（FAA）完全認證以供商業使用，但它已獲得了測試新飛機設計所需的幾項初步認證，以確保其下一階段的認證。</p>
</div><h2>The future looks bright</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>未來看起來光明</h2>
</div><p>So where's this all going? As was noted, the ultimate goal is for Archer's eVTOL (electric vertical takeoff and landing) aircraft to form the backbone of air taxi services.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>那麼這一切將走向何方？正如所提到的，Archer 的 eVTOL（電動垂直起降）飛機的最終目標是形成空中出租車服務的骨幹。</p>
</div><p>That's not quite as wild a notion as it might sound on the surface, either. Oh, at one time it would have been, to be sure. However, as Archer's Midnight and a similar aircraft made by rival <strong>Joby Aviation</strong>(JOBY -5.48%) continue to prove themselves, experts increasingly expect to see these new kinds of flexible flying vehicles become commercially viable.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這並不是一個聽起來那麼瘋狂的想法。哦，曾幾何時，這確實是一個瘋狂的想法。然而，隨着 Archer 的 Midnight 和競爭對手 <strong>Joby Aviation</strong>（JOBY -5.48%）製造的類似飛機不斷證明自己，專家們越來越期待看到這些新型靈活飛行器變得商業可行。</p>
</div><p>In fact, Archer has already forged a partnership with airline <strong>United</strong> to establish an air taxi service in and around New York City. Whereas a car trip between downtown Manhattan and any of its nearby airports might take an hour or more through the metropolitan area's congested streets, Archer's aircraft could manage that point-to-point trip in about 10 minutes at an expected cost somewhere in the neighborhood of $50 to $100 per passenger.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>事實上，Archer 已經與航空公司 <strong>United</strong> 建立了合作關係，以在紐約市及周邊地區建立空中出租車服務。相比之下，從曼哈頓市中心到附近任何機場的汽車行程可能需要一個小時或更長時間，而 Archer 的飛機可以在大約 10 分鐘內完成這一點，預計每位乘客的費用在 50 到 100 美元之間。</p>
</div><p>It's not just downtown New York, though. Archer's initial designs for a hybrid heliport in the United Arab Emirates have been approved by that nation's General Civil Aviation Agency, with test flights in Abu Dhabi beginning just a few weeks ago. Archer Aviation has also been named the official air taxi service provider for the 2028 Summer Olympics scheduled to take place in Los Angeles. Given that all of these deals have been inked without the customers waiting for the Midnight to earn FAA certification, clearly there's some confidence in the aircraft.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>不過，這不僅僅是紐約市中心。Archer 在阿聯酋的混合直升機停機坪的初步設計已獲得該國民航局的批准，幾周前在阿布扎比開始了測試飛行。Archer Aviation 還被指定為 2028 年將在洛杉磯舉行的夏季奧運會的官方空中出租車服務提供商。鑑於所有這些交易都是在客户等待 Midnight 獲得 FAA 認證之前簽署的，顯然對這架飛機有一定的信心。</p>
</div><p>The industry's catching a relatively new tailwind too. In June, President Donald Trump signed an executive order requiring the secretary of transportation to create an &#34;eVTOL [electric vertical takeoff and landing] Integration Pilot Program (eIPP) as an extension of the BEYOND program to accelerate the deployment of safe and lawful eVTOL operations in the United States.&#34; This is just one of the reasons Precedence Research expects the United States to lead a worldwide flying taxi business that it forecasts will grow at an average annual rate of nearly 29% between now and 2034.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>該行業也正在迎來相對新的順風。在 6 月，唐納德·特朗普總統簽署了一項行政命令，要求交通部長創建一個 &#34;eVTOL [電動垂直起降] 集成試點計劃（eIPP），作為 BEYOND 計劃的延伸，以加速在美國安全和合法的 eVTOL 運營的部署。&#34; 這只是 Precedence Research 預計美國將在未來到 2034 年之間以近 29% 的年均增長率引領全球飛行出租車業務的原因之一。</p>
</div><p>In that context, Archer's goal of building a manufacturing facility capable of producing 650 eVTOLs a year by 2030 doesn't seem unreasonable at all.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在這種背景下，Archer 計劃到 2030 年建立一個能夠每年生產 650 輛 eVTOL 的製造設施，似乎並不不合理。</p>
</div><h2>The risk matches the potential reward</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>風險與潛在回報相匹配</h2>
</div><p>There are still plenty of risks for this company. Chief among them is that the Midnight's FAA approval isn't an absolute foregone conclusion, even if the market is acting as if it is. And even if the FAA ends up approving it (which, realistically speaking, seems more likely than not), there's no assurance that consumers will embrace battery-powered flying taxis even if they do offer reasonably affordable and rapid trips, just as there's no assurance the company will be able to secure all the landing zones it needs to establish full footprints in cities where it wants to operate. And, even if it does, there's no guarantee that Archer can do all of this profitably.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這家公司仍然面臨許多風險。其中最主要的是 Midnight 的 FAA 批准並不是絕對的定局，即使市場表現得好像它是。而即使 FAA 最終批准它（從現實的角度來看，這似乎更可能），也不能保證消費者會接受電池驅動的飛行出租車，即使它們確實提供相對實惠和快速的旅行，也不能保證公司能夠確保所有所需的着陸區，以在其希望運營的城市建立完整的業務。而且，即使它能做到，也不能保證 Archer 能夠以盈利的方式做到這一切。</p>
</div><p>There's a chance, though, that each of these matters will work out as well as hoped. And the odds of everything working out as hoped for Archer are millions of times better than your odds of winning the lottery are, though the potential payoff for investors isn't nearly as big.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>不過，每個問題都有可能像希望的那樣順利解決。而且，Archer 一切順利的幾率比你贏得彩票的幾率高出數百萬倍，儘管對投資者的潛在回報遠沒有那麼大。</p>
</div><p>Speaking of payoffs, for what it's worth, the analyst community says Archer Aviation stock is undervalued right now. The current one-year consensus target of $12.39 is more than 30% above the stock's present price, in fact. The majority of the analysts covering the company rate Archer a strong buy right now, as well. That's not a bad way to start out any new speculative trade.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>談到回報，分析師社區表示，Archer Aviation 的股票目前被低估。事實上，目前一年的共識目標價為 12.39 美元，比該股票的現價高出超過 30%。覆蓋該公司的大多數分析師目前對 Archer 的評級為強烈買入。這對於任何新的投機交易來説，都是一個不錯的開端。</p>
</div>

如果你對強力球彩票感到心動，為什麼不考慮投資 Archer Aviation 的股票呢？