<p><strong>比特幣</strong>（BTC 0.61%），全球最大的加密貨幣，市值超過 2.3 萬億美元，在過去一年中大幅上漲，漲幅超過 90%。但最近，這一漲勢停滯，比特幣自 8 月峯值以來下跌近 12%（截至 9 月 2 日）。</p>
<p>考慮到比特幣歷史上對利率下降的反應通常是積極的，這種情況有些奇怪。美聯儲主席傑羅姆·鮑威爾最近表示，美聯儲正在考慮放鬆貨幣政策，這導致市場預計美聯儲在 9 月會議上降息的可能性很大。比特幣會反彈還是繼續下跌？</p>
<h2>加密貨幣是不可預測的</h2>
<p>自唐納德·特朗普在 11 月贏得總統選舉以來，比特幣表現極為出色，即使其他加密貨幣在其他挑戰中掙扎或停滯不前。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MzE0NDAvYm9hcmRyb29tLTEuanBnJnc9NzAw?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MzE0NDAvYm9hcmRyb29tLTEuanBnJnc9NzAw"/></p>
<p>圖片來源：Getty Images。</p>
<p>特朗普政府推動加密領域的放鬆監管，任命了支持加密的顧問和內閣首腦，甚至宣佈計劃啓動美國戰略比特幣儲備。監管方面的綠燈使許多機構投資者和主流金融機構將更多資本投入該領域，幾乎沒有對監管反擊的擔憂。</p>
<p>人們可能會認為，鮑威爾向市場暗示美聯儲在 9 月可能降息會進一步推動該領域的發展。但最近，比特幣經歷了一次閃電崩盤，一位持有大量比特幣的投資者突然出售了價值 27 億美元的 24,000 個比特幣。</p>
<p>自那時以來，比特幣的價格從每個代幣超過 124,000 美元下滑至約 111,000 美元。閃電崩盤後恢復並不罕見，但這次下跌持續的時間比投資者預期的要長。很可能其他大户感到緊張，現在正在出售以鎖定利潤，因為這段時間的表現極為強勁。</p>
<p>也有可能加密投資者擔心美聯儲在 9 月會議上不會實際降息，或者未來的其他降息不會實現。雖然看起來可能性很大，但在美聯儲 9 月會議之前仍會有經濟數據發佈，這可能會影響其行動。強勁的就業報告和高於預期的通脹數據可能會促使市場甚至美聯儲重新考慮 9 月的降息。</p>
<p>投資者還應記住，比特幣只有大約 15 年的歷史，市場對這一數字資產可能還有很多未知。加密貨幣往往不可預測，因此交易方式也不可預測。</p>
<h2>比特幣會繼續下跌嗎？</h2>
<p>短期內會發生什麼，誰也無法預測。大户可能會繼續出售。如果經濟數據阻止美聯儲在 9 月降息，或改變市場對未來降息的預期，那麼比特幣和其他加密市場可能會受到重創。利率上升往往會增強美元的強度，而美元與加密貨幣的交易歷史上通常是反向的。</p>
<p>但從長遠來看，我預計比特幣會反彈並最終上漲。無論這是否會成真，市場上相當一部分人認為比特幣的供應量有限，只有 2100 萬個，類似於數字黃金，因此是對抗通脹的對沖工具。特朗普簽署了一項行政命令，使投資者更容易將比特幣納入他們的退休投資組合，而全球最大的資產管理公司 <strong>黑石</strong> 甚至表示，投資者應該放心在多資產投資組合中分配一小部分資本給比特幣。</p>
<p>比特幣在過去經歷過幾次巨大的下跌，隨後反彈並達到新高。我認為這次也不會例外。</p>

GBTC

<p>比特幣自 8 月峯值以來已下跌近 12%，目前交易價格約為 111,000 美元。儘管今年表現強勁，漲幅超過 90%，但近期市場動態，包括一位主要投資者的大規模拋售，導致了不確定性。美聯儲可能的降息措施可能會影響比特幣的復甦，但經濟數據可能會影響美聯儲的決策。雖然短期預測不確定，但長期預期依然樂觀，比特幣被視為對抗通脹的工具，以及類似於黃金的數字資產</p>

<p><strong>Bitcoin</strong>(BTC 0.61%), the world's largest cryptocurrency with a market cap of more than $2.3 trillion, has gone on a big run during the past year, up more than 90%. But lately, the rally has stalled and Bitcoin is down almost 12% from its August peak (as of Sept. 2).</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>比特幣</strong>（BTC 0.61%），全球最大的加密貨幣，市值超過 2.3 萬億美元，在過去一年中大幅上漲，漲幅超過 90%。但最近，這一漲勢停滯，比特幣自 8 月峯值以來下跌近 12%（截至 9 月 2 日）。</p>
</div><p>It's a bit odd when you consider that Bitcoin has historically responded positively to falling interest rates. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell recently indicated that the Fed is considering easing monetary policy, leading the market to price in a strong likelihood of an interest rate cut at the Fed's September meeting. Will Bitcoin rebound or continue to fall?</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>考慮到比特幣歷史上對利率下降的反應通常是積極的，這種情況有些奇怪。美聯儲主席傑羅姆·鮑威爾最近表示，美聯儲正在考慮放鬆貨幣政策，這導致市場預計美聯儲在 9 月會議上降息的可能性很大。比特幣會反彈還是繼續下跌？</p>
</div><h2>Crypto is unpredictable</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>加密貨幣是不可預測的</h2>
</div><p>Since Donald Trump's presidential election win in November, Bitcoin has performed extremely well, even while other cryptocurrencies struggled or stalled amid other challenges.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>自唐納德·特朗普在 11 月贏得總統選舉以來，比特幣表現極為出色，即使其他加密貨幣在其他挑戰中掙扎或停滯不前。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MzE0NDAvYm9hcmRyb29tLTEuanBnJnc9NzAw" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F831440%2Fboardroom-1.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>圖片來源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><p>The Trump administration has pushed deregulation in the crypto sector, installed pro-crypto advisors and cabinet heads, and even announced plans to launch a U.S. Strategic Bitcoin Reserve. The green light on the regulatory front has led many institutional investors and mainstream financial institutions to put more capital into the sector, with few concerns about regulatory pushback.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>特朗普政府推動加密領域的放鬆監管，任命了支持加密的顧問和內閣首腦，甚至宣佈計劃啓動美國戰略比特幣儲備。監管方面的綠燈使許多機構投資者和主流金融機構將更多資本投入該領域，幾乎沒有對監管反擊的擔憂。</p>
</div><p>One might have thought that Powell's indication to the market that the Fed is open to a rate cut in September would boost the sector more. But recently, Bitcoin experienced a flash crash after a Bitcoin whale, an investor holding a large amount of coins, suddenly sold 24,000 bitcoins that were worth $2.7 billion at the time of the sale.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>人們可能會認為，鮑威爾向市場暗示美聯儲在 9 月可能降息會進一步推動該領域的發展。但最近，比特幣經歷了一次閃電崩盤，一位持有大量比特幣的投資者突然出售了價值 27 億美元的 24,000 個比特幣。</p>
</div><p>Since then, Bitcoin has floundered from more than $124,000 per token to about $111,000. It's not uncommon for recoveries to follow flash crashes, but this dip has lasted a little longer than investors might have thought. It's quite possible that other whales got nervous and are now selling to book profits after what has been an incredibly strong run.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>自那時以來，比特幣的價格從每個代幣超過 124,000 美元下滑至約 111,000 美元。閃電崩盤後恢復並不罕見，但這次下跌持續的時間比投資者預期的要長。很可能其他大户感到緊張，現在正在出售以鎖定利潤，因為這段時間的表現極為強勁。</p>
</div><p>It's also possible that crypto investors are nervous the Fed won't actually cut interest rates at its September meeting, or that other future rate cuts won't come to fruition. While it seems likely, there is still economic data that will come out before the Fed's September meeting that could influence its actions. A solid jobs report and higher-than-expected inflation data could push the market and even the Fed to reconsider a September cut.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>也有可能加密投資者擔心美聯儲在 9 月會議上不會實際降息，或者未來的其他降息不會實現。雖然看起來可能性很大，但在美聯儲 9 月會議之前仍會有經濟數據發佈，這可能會影響其行動。強勁的就業報告和高於預期的通脹數據可能會促使市場甚至美聯儲重新考慮 9 月的降息。</p>
</div><p>Investors should also keep in mind that Bitcoin is only about 15 years old and there is likely a lot the market doesn't know about the digital asset. Crypto is often unpredictable and therefore trades in an unpredictable fashion.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>投資者還應記住，比特幣只有大約 15 年的歷史，市場對這一數字資產可能還有很多未知。加密貨幣往往不可預測，因此交易方式也不可預測。</p>
</div><h2>Will Bitcoin continue to fall?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>比特幣會繼續下跌嗎？</h2>
</div><p>What happens in the near term is anyone's guess. Whales could continue selling. If economic data prevents the Fed from cutting rates in September or changes the market's expectations for rate cuts in the future, then Bitcoin and the rest of the crypto market could get hit hard. Rising interest rates tend to boost the strength of the U.S. dollar, which has historically traded inversely to crypto.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>短期內會發生什麼，誰也無法預測。大户可能會繼續出售。如果經濟數據阻止美聯儲在 9 月降息，或改變市場對未來降息的預期，那麼比特幣和其他加密市場可能會受到重創。利率上升往往會增強美元的強度，而美元與加密貨幣的交易歷史上通常是反向的。</p>
</div><p>But long term, I expect Bitcoin to rebound and eventually move higher. Whether it turns out to be true, a significant portion of the market believes Bitcoin, with its finite supply of 21 million coins, is akin to digital gold and therefore a hedge against inflation. Trump has signed an executive order making it easier for investors to add Bitcoin to their retirement portfolios, and <strong>BlackRock</strong>, the world's largest asset manager, has even said that investors should feel OK allocating a small portion of capital in a multi-asset portfolio to Bitcoin.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但從長遠來看，我預計比特幣會反彈並最終上漲。無論這是否會成真，市場上相當一部分人認為比特幣的供應量有限，只有 2100 萬個，類似於數字黃金，因此是對抗通脹的對沖工具。特朗普簽署了一項行政命令，使投資者更容易將比特幣納入他們的退休投資組合，而全球最大的資產管理公司 <strong>黑石</strong> 甚至表示，投資者應該放心在多資產投資組合中分配一小部分資本給比特幣。</p>
</div><p>Bitcoin has experienced several huge declines in the past, only to rebound and reach new highs. I see no reason that won't happen again.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>比特幣在過去經歷過幾次巨大的下跌，隨後反彈並達到新高。我認為這次也不會例外。</p>
</div>

Bitcoin Is Down 12% From Its August Record. Will It Continue to Fall?

- 比特幣在過去一年上漲超過 90%，但近期下跌近 12%。  
- 美聯儲主席表示可能降息，市場對此反應強烈。  
- 大量比特幣鯨魚拋售導致價格波動，未來走勢仍不確定。  

比特幣自八月創紀錄以來已下跌 12%。它會繼續下跌嗎？