<p>投資於零排放飛行器聽起來是一個令人興奮的增長機會。目前最熱門的趨勢之一是投資於電動垂直起降（eVTOL）飛機市場的公司。這些飛機可以作為空中出租車，高效地運輸人們，同時比直升機更環保、噪音更小。</p>
<p>在這個領域的領先公司是 <strong>Joby Aviation</strong>（JOBY 0.42%）。該公司正在取得進展，並希望在明年開始商業運營。鑑於這些預期，股票的估值在過去 12 個月中上漲了超過 160%。</p>
<p>但由於公司產生的收入有限且虧損嚴重，商業模式仍需證明其盈利能力，因此股票存在相當大的風險。在過去一個月中，Joby 的股價下跌了超過 20%。這是否意味着股票可能已經見頂，還是這只是未來可能仍然是一個有前景的長期增長投資的一個小波折？</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MzA2OTMvYW4tdmVydGljYWwtdGFrZS1vZmYtYW5kLWxhbmRpbmctYWlyY3JhZnQtdGhhdC1oYXMtbGFuZGVkLmpwZyZ3PTcwMA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MzA2OTMvYW4tdmVydGljYWwtdGFrZS1vZmYtYW5kLWxhbmRpbmctYWlyY3JhZnQtdGhhdC1oYXMtbGFuZGVkLmpwZyZ3PTcwMA"/></p>
<p>圖片來源：Getty Images。</p>
<h2>投機而非基本面推動 Joby 的股票</h2>
<p>Joby 的股票最近表現不佳，但總體而言，今年仍上漲超過 60%（截至上週末）。對於一家尚未開始商業運營的公司，投資者顯然對 Joby 寄予厚望。</p>
<p>但對於這一切的結果並沒有確定性。考慮到基礎設施以及飛機的實用性等眾多疑問，我對 eVTOL 股票持懷疑態度。Joby 的飛機可以運輸多達四名乘客，但除非空中有數百架這樣的飛機，否則在繁忙的城市中可能並不能緩解交通擁堵，這對空中交通來説也許並不理想。</p>
<p>這也是一個資本密集型的業務，直到 Joby 開始擴展併產生收入，投資者才會對該業務盈利的可能性有一個清晰的認識。雖然這些飛機看起來時尚且未來感十足，但這並不意味着它們在長期內會非常實用或為 Joby 帶來盈利。</p>
<h2>投資者是否開始重新考慮？</h2>
<p>在八月份，Joby 完成了其首次在公共機場之間的有人駕駛空中出租車飛行，標誌着其運營的一個里程碑。該飛行在加利福尼亞州的馬里納和蒙特雷之間進行，公司將其視為朝商業化邁出的 “重大一步”。</p>
<p>然而，股票在這一消息發佈後並沒有上漲，反而自那時以來下跌。也許投資者對 Joby 的期望更高，或者他們只是想從今年股票強勁反彈中兑現利潤。但根據分析師的説法，eVTOL 股票可能還有更大的下跌空間。共識分析師的目標價格僅為 10.50 美元，這意味着從當前交易價格來看，存在超過 20% 的下行風險。</p>
<p>價格目標並不能保證股票最終的價格，但可以為投資者提供一個良好的衡量標準，以判斷股票是被低估還是高估。由於 Joby 的股價仍遠高於共識平均水平，這突顯了今年購買該股票的投機性。如果投資者確實在更仔細地考慮估值，Joby 的股票可能在不久的將來會有更多的修正。</p>
<h2>Joby 的股票可能已經定價過高</h2>
<p>如果你今天購買 Joby 的股票，你將為一家處於早期增長階段的企業支付高額溢價。以約 110 億美元的市值來看，你需要對 eVTOL 市場未來將會龐大以及 Joby 將成為其中關鍵參與者有相當強的信心，才能認為今天的股票是一個好的買入時機。</p>
<p>我對這兩點都沒有信心，這就是為什麼我認為對 Joby 採取觀望態度是最安全的選擇。我相信該股票可能已經在短期內達到了峯值。然而，長期表現如何仍然難以判斷。除非你有極高的風險承受能力，否則即使在股票最近貶值的情況下，你可能也更適合在場外觀望，而不是投資 Joby。</p>

JOBY

<p>Joby Aviation 的股票在過去一年中上漲了超過 160%，但最近下跌超過 20%。儘管完成了首次有人駕駛的空中出租車飛行，但由於收入有限和高額虧損，投資者仍持懷疑態度。分析師建議的共識目標價為 10.50 美元，暗示可能進一步下跌。該股票當前的估值可能反映了過高的增長預期，導致謹慎的前景。建議投資者採取觀望態度，因為 Joby 在電動垂直起降（eVTOL）市場的長期可行性仍然不確定</p>

<p>Investing in zero-emission flying vehicles sounds like a fantastic growth opportunity for investors. And one of the hottest trends right now involves investing in companies that are in the electric vertical take-off and landing (eVTOL) aircraft market. The aircraft can act as air taxis, transporting people efficiently while also being greener and less noisy options than helicopters.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>投資於零排放飛行器聽起來是一個令人興奮的增長機會。目前最熱門的趨勢之一是投資於電動垂直起降（eVTOL）飛機市場的公司。這些飛機可以作為空中出租車，高效地運輸人們，同時比直升機更環保、噪音更小。</p>
</div><p>A leading company in that space is <strong>Joby Aviation</strong>(JOBY 0.42%). The company has been making progress and hopes to commence commercial operations by next year. In light of those expectations, the stock's valuation has climbed by more than 160% in just the past 12 months.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在這個領域的領先公司是 <strong>Joby Aviation</strong>（JOBY 0.42%）。該公司正在取得進展，並希望在明年開始商業運營。鑑於這些預期，股票的估值在過去 12 個月中上漲了超過 160%。</p>
</div><p>But with the company generating limited revenue and incurring massive losses, and a business model that still needs to prove it can be profitable, there's ample risk with the stock. In just the past month, shares of Joby are down by more than 20%. Is this a sign that the stock may have peaked, or is this just a slight bump in the road for what may still prove to be a promising long-term growth investment?</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但由於公司產生的收入有限且虧損嚴重，商業模式仍需證明其盈利能力，因此股票存在相當大的風險。在過去一個月中，Joby 的股價下跌了超過 20%。這是否意味着股票可能已經見頂，還是這只是未來可能仍然是一個有前景的長期增長投資的一個小波折？</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MzA2OTMvYW4tdmVydGljYWwtdGFrZS1vZmYtYW5kLWxhbmRpbmctYWlyY3JhZnQtdGhhdC1oYXMtbGFuZGVkLmpwZyZ3PTcwMA" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F830693%2Fan-vertical-take-off-and-landing-aircraft-that-has-landed.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>圖片來源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><h2>Speculation, not fundamentals, is fueling Joby's stock</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>投機而非基本面推動 Joby 的股票</h2>
</div><p>Joby's stock has struggled recently, but overall, it's still up more than 60% this year (as of the end of last week). For a company that still hasn't begun its commercial operations, investors are clearly jumping the gun on this one and expecting big things from Joby in the future.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Joby 的股票最近表現不佳，但總體而言，今年仍上漲超過 60%（截至上週末）。對於一家尚未開始商業運營的公司，投資者顯然對 Joby 寄予厚望。</p>
</div><p>But there is no certainty as to how all that plays out. I'm skeptical about eVTOL stocks as a whole, given the numerous question marks about not only infrastructure but also how practical the aircraft are. Joby's aircraft can transport up to four passengers, which may not really alleviate much traffic in busy urban cities unless you have hundreds of these aircraft in the skies, which may not be ideal for air traffic.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但對於這一切的結果並沒有確定性。考慮到基礎設施以及飛機的實用性等眾多疑問，我對 eVTOL 股票持懷疑態度。Joby 的飛機可以運輸多達四名乘客，但除非空中有數百架這樣的飛機，否則在繁忙的城市中可能並不能緩解交通擁堵，這對空中交通來説也許並不理想。</p>
</div><p>This is also a capital-intensive business, and until Joby starts to scale and generate revenue, investors won't have a clear idea as to how likely it will be for the business to turn a profit. The aircraft may look sleek and futuristic, but that doesn't mean it may be all that practical or result in profitability for Joby in the long run.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這也是一個資本密集型的業務，直到 Joby 開始擴展併產生收入，投資者才會對該業務盈利的可能性有一個清晰的認識。雖然這些飛機看起來時尚且未來感十足，但這並不意味着它們在長期內會非常實用或為 Joby 帶來盈利。</p>
</div><h2>Are investors having second thoughts?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>投資者是否開始重新考慮？</h2>
</div><p>In August, Joby completed its first piloted air taxi flight between public airports, marking a milestone for its operations. The flight was in California, between Marina and Monterey, and the company regarded it as a &#34;major step&#34; in its progress toward commercialization.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在八月份，Joby 完成了其首次在公共機場之間的有人駕駛空中出租車飛行，標誌着其運營的一個里程碑。該飛行在加利福尼亞州的馬里納和蒙特雷之間進行，公司將其視為朝商業化邁出的 “重大一步”。</p>
</div><p>However, the stock didn't rise on that news, and instead, it has fallen since then. Perhaps investors were expecting more from Joby, or they simply wanted to cash out profits from the stock's strong rally this year. But according to analysts, there may be much more room for the eVTOL stock to fall. The consensus analyst price target is just $10.50, which implies a downside risk of more than 20% from where the stock trades today.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，股票在這一消息發佈後並沒有上漲，反而自那時以來下跌。也許投資者對 Joby 的期望更高，或者他們只是想從今年股票強勁反彈中兑現利潤。但根據分析師的説法，eVTOL 股票可能還有更大的下跌空間。共識分析師的目標價格僅為 10.50 美元，這意味着從當前交易價格來看，存在超過 20% 的下行風險。</p>
</div><p>Price targets are not a guarantee of where a stock might end up, but they can give investors a good gauge of how underpriced or overpriced a stock may be. And with Joby still being well above the consensus average, it highlights just how speculative a buy it has been this year. If investors are indeed thinking about the valuation more closely, there could be more of a correction to come for Joby's stock in the near future.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>價格目標並不能保證股票最終的價格，但可以為投資者提供一個良好的衡量標準，以判斷股票是被低估還是高估。由於 Joby 的股價仍遠高於共識平均水平，這突顯了今年購買該股票的投機性。如果投資者確實在更仔細地考慮估值，Joby 的股票可能在不久的將來會有更多的修正。</p>
</div><h2>Joby's stock may already have too much growth priced in</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>Joby 的股票可能已經定價過高</h2>
</div><p>If you're buying Joby's stock today, you're paying a hefty premium for a business that's so early on in its growth. At around $11 billion in market cap, you would need to have fairly strong confidence that not only is the eVTOL market going to be big in the future, but that Joby will also be a key player in it for the stock to appear to be a good buy today.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如果你今天購買 Joby 的股票，你將為一家處於早期增長階段的企業支付高額溢價。以約 110 億美元的市值來看，你需要對 eVTOL 市場未來將會龐大以及 Joby 將成為其中關鍵參與者有相當強的信心，才能認為今天的股票是一個好的買入時機。</p>
</div><p>I'm not confident in either one of those things being true, which is why I think a wait-and-see approach is the safest one to take with Joby. I believe the stock may have reached a peak, at least in the short run. How it does in the long term, however, is still too hard to tell. And unless you have an extremely high risk tolerance, you may be better off waiting on the sidelines than investing in Joby, even with the stock's recent decline in value.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>我對這兩點都沒有信心，這就是為什麼我認為對 Joby 採取觀望態度是最安全的選擇。我相信該股票可能已經在短期內達到了峯值。然而，長期表現如何仍然難以判斷。除非你有極高的風險承受能力，否則即使在股票最近貶值的情況下，你可能也更適合在場外觀望，而不是投資 Joby。</p>
</div>

Joby Aviation 的股票是否已經達到頂峯？