<p>三十年前，互聯網的出現和普及永遠改變了美國企業的增長軌跡。這項顛覆性的技術使企業能夠超越傳統的實體店面，同時也為普通投資者打破了壁壘，讓他們可以通過點擊按鈕訪問財務報表、資產負債表、公司演示和領先的商業故事。</p>
<p>幾十年來，投資者一直在等待下一個推動美國企業前進的重大技術。人工智能（AI）的演變似乎回應了這一呼喚。</p>
<p>在《Sizing the Prize》中，普華永道的分析師預測，到 2030 年，全球國內生產總值將因人工智能而增加 15.7 萬億美元。如此龐大的可尋址市場，難怪人工智能股票飆升。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MzE5NTQvbnZpZGlhLXZveWFnZXItaGVhZHF1YXJ0ZXJzLWFydGlmaWNpYWwtaW50ZWxsaWdlbmNlLWdwdS1haS1zZW1pY29uZHVjdG9yLmpwZyZ3PTcwMA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="700" height="466" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MzE5NTQvbnZpZGlhLXZveWFnZXItaGVhZHF1YXJ0ZXJzLWFydGlmaWNpYWwtaW50ZWxsaWdlbmNlLWdwdS1haS1zZW1pY29uZHVjdG9yLmpwZyZ3PTcwMA"/></p>
<p>圖片來源：Nvidia。</p>
<p>但在數百家以某種方式受益於人工智能革命的上市公司中，沒有一家比 <strong>Nvidia</strong>（NVDA -2.78%）獲得的提升更大。這家全球最大的上市公司自 2023 年開始以來，市值增加了約 3.8 萬億美元，其股價上漲了驚人的 1,070%，考慮到 2024 年 6 月的歷史性 10 比 1 股票拆分。</p>
<p>儘管 Nvidia 看似勢不可擋，但瞭解它的人發出了一個無可否認的警告……_如果_投資者在關注的話。</p>
<h2>Nvidia 幾乎與 “人工智能” 同義</h2>
<p>Nvidia 因其圖形處理單元（GPU）而成為人工智能革命的代名詞，這些 GPU 是企業數據中心的 “大腦”。其 Hopper（H100）和 Blackwell 芯片佔據了所有在人工智能加速數據中心中部署的 GPU 的主要份額。</p>
<p>Nvidia 的核心優勢之一是沒有外部競爭對手能夠接近其人工智能硬件的計算能力。Nvidia 首席執行官黃仁勳希望保持這種狀態，黃仁勳監督着下一代芯片的預期年度發佈。</p>
<p>Blackwell 繼任者 Blackwell Ultra 的生產已經開始，Vera Rubin 和 Vera Rubin Ultra 的交付預計將在 2026 年下半年和 2027 年進行。Nvidia 不太可能在短期內放棄其計算優勢。</p>
<p>在這一點上，人工智能 GPU 的稀缺性對 Nvidia 有利。即使 <strong>台灣半導體制造公司</strong> 盡其所能地擴大其每月的芯片 - 硅片 - 基板產能，Nvidia 的 GPU 需求仍然遠遠超過供應。這是一個令人羨慕的地位，使 Nvidia 能夠在其硬件上維持高價，從而提升了其毛利率。</p>
<p>還有 Nvidia 運營模式中的無名英雄：CUDA 軟件平台。CUDA 是開發者用來最大化 Nvidia GPU 計算能力的工具包，包括構建和訓練大型語言模型。CUDA 是一個有效的誘餌，使現有客户忠於 Nvidia 的硬件和服務生態系統。</p>
<p>隨着對中國的人工智能 GPU 出貨恢復以及下一代芯片的訂單積壓，Nvidia 似乎前景無限——但從其內部人士的記錄來看，你可能不會這樣認為。</p>
<h2>Nvidia 的內部人士向華爾街和投資者發出明確警告</h2>
<p>“內部人士” 是指在上市公司中擁有非公開信息的人，例如執行團隊成員、董事會成員或持有超過 10% 股份的受益股東。沒有人比這些人更瞭解他們公司的催化劑和陷阱。</p>
<p>由於華爾街的法規，內部人士必須在交易後的兩個工作日內通過向證券交易委員會提交的 Form 4 報告其交易活動。換句話説，如果公司的內部人士在買賣股票或行使期權合約，投資者將會知道。</p>
<p>Nvidia 的內部交易活動發出了一個警告，華爾街和投資者最好不要忽視。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MzE5NTQvcmVkLWRpY2UtYnV5LXNlbGwtc3RvY2stY2hhcnQtZmluYW5jaWFsLWRhdGEtaW52ZXN0LWJpbGxpb25haXJlLWdldHR5LmpwZyZ3PTcwMA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="700" height="525" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MzE5NTQvcmVkLWRpY2UtYnV5LXNlbGwtc3RvY2stY2hhcnQtZmluYW5jaWFsLWRhdGEtaW52ZXN0LWJpbGxpb25haXJlLWdldHR5LmpwZyZ3PTcwMA"/></p>
<p>圖片來源：Getty Images。</p>
<p>在過去五年（截至 9 月 3 日）的時間裏，內部人士淨售出了價值 47 億美元的 Nvidia 股票。</p>
<p>然而，內部人士賣出活動伴隨着一個註釋——即高管們的薪酬大部分以普通股和/或期權的形式獲得。通常，股票需要被出售以覆蓋他們的聯邦和/或州税負。同樣，期權需要在到期前行使，這可能導致基於税務的賣出。關鍵點是，內部人士的賣出活動並不自動意味着壞事。</p>
<p>但這枚硬幣還有另一面——這才是真正的擔憂所在。</p>
<p>儘管過去五年賣出活動持續不斷，但買入幾乎不存在。最後一次來自高管或董事會成員的購買發生在 2020 年 12 月 3 日，首席財務官 Colette Kress 報告為她的兩個兒子各購買了 100 股。在 Kress 之前，董事 Stephen Neal 在 2020 年 9 月 21 日至 2020 年 9 月 25 日期間累計購買了 948 股。總的來説，瞭解 Nvidia 最好的人在過去五年中僅花費了 581,000 美元購買其股票。</p>
<p>雖然存在許多賣出股票的理由，但只有一個買入的理由：你相信股價會上漲。如果 Nvidia 的高管和董事都不願意在不到三年內股價上漲 1,070% 的情況下進行投資，為什麼投資者應該被期望跳入呢？</p>
<p>儘管英偉達擁有樂觀的長期預測，但其超過 25 的市銷率已接近泡沫區域。此外，過去 30 多年沒有任何一項下一個重大技術進步能夠避免最終的早期泡沫破裂事件。內部人士缺乏買入行為所描繪的圖景不言而喻。</p>

英偉達

2 倍做多英偉達 ETF - GraniteShares

南方兩倍做多英偉達

南方兩倍做空英偉達

英偉達期權收益策略 ETF - YieldMax

1 倍做空英偉達 ETF - Direxion

2 倍做多 NVDA ETF - T-Rex

2 倍做空 NVDA ETF - T-Rex

半導體 3 倍做多 - Direxion

<p>英偉達的市場價值顯著上升，自 2023 年初以來增加了約 3.8 萬億美元，這主要歸功於其在人工智能領域的主導地位。然而，內部人士對此表示擔憂，因為在過去五年中，他們淨出售了 47 億美元的股票，買入活動極少。這一趨勢表明，儘管英偉達在人工智能市場中處於強勢地位且對其 GPU 的需求持續，但投資者仍需保持謹慎</p>

<p>Three decades ago, the advent and proliferation of the internet changed the growth arc of corporate America forever. This game-changing technology allowed businesses to move beyond their brick-and-mortar settings, as well as broke down barriers for everyday investors by giving them access to financial statements, balance sheets, corporate presentations, and leading business stories at the click of a button.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>三十年前，互聯網的出現和普及永遠改變了美國企業的增長軌跡。這項顛覆性的技術使企業能夠超越傳統的實體店面，同時也為普通投資者打破了壁壘，讓他們可以通過點擊按鈕訪問財務報表、資產負債表、公司演示和領先的商業故事。</p>
</div><p>For decades, investors have been waiting for the next big technology to push corporate America forward. The evolution of artificial intelligence (AI) looks to have answered the call.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>幾十年來，投資者一直在等待下一個推動美國企業前進的重大技術。人工智能（AI）的演變似乎回應了這一呼喚。</p>
</div><p>In <em>Sizing the Prize</em>, the analysts at PwC forecast a $15.7 trillion jump in global gross domestic product by 2030, courtesy of AI. With an addressable market this large, it's no wonder AI stocks have soared.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在《Sizing the Prize》中，普華永道的分析師預測，到 2030 年，全球國內生產總值將因人工智能而增加 15.7 萬億美元。如此龐大的可尋址市場，難怪人工智能股票飆升。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MzE5NTQvbnZpZGlhLXZveWFnZXItaGVhZHF1YXJ0ZXJzLWFydGlmaWNpYWwtaW50ZWxsaWdlbmNlLWdwdS1haS1zZW1pY29uZHVjdG9yLmpwZyZ3PTcwMA" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F831954%2Fnvidia-voyager-headquarters-artificial-intelligence-gpu-ai-semiconductor.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Nvidia.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>圖片來源：Nvidia。</p>
</div><p>But among the hundreds of public companies that have benefited in some way, form, or shape from the AI revolution, none has enjoyed a bigger boost than <strong>Nvidia</strong>(NVDA -2.78%). The world's largest publicly traded company has added around $3.8 trillion in market value since 2023 began, with its shares up a cool 1,070%, factoring in a historic 10-for-1 stock split in June 2024.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但在數百家以某種方式受益於人工智能革命的上市公司中，沒有一家比 <strong>Nvidia</strong>（NVDA -2.78%）獲得的提升更大。這家全球最大的上市公司自 2023 年開始以來，市值增加了約 3.8 萬億美元，其股價上漲了驚人的 1,070%，考慮到 2024 年 6 月的歷史性 10 比 1 股票拆分。</p>
</div><p>Although Nvidia would appear to be unstoppable, the people who know it best are sounding a warning that's arguably unmistakable... <em>if</em> investors are paying attention.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>儘管 Nvidia 看似勢不可擋，但瞭解它的人發出了一個無可否認的警告……_如果_投資者在關注的話。</p>
</div><h2>Nvidia has become practically synonymous with &#34;artificial intelligence&#34;</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>Nvidia 幾乎與 “人工智能” 同義</h2>
</div><p>Nvidia became the face of the AI revolution thanks to its graphics processing units (GPUs), which act as the brains of enterprise data centers. Its Hopper (H100) and Blackwell chips account for the bulk of all GPUs deployed in AI-accelerated data centers.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Nvidia 因其圖形處理單元（GPU）而成為人工智能革命的代名詞，這些 GPU 是企業數據中心的 “大腦”。其 Hopper（H100）和 Blackwell 芯片佔據了所有在人工智能加速數據中心中部署的 GPU 的主要份額。</p>
</div><p>One of Nvidia's core advantages is that no external competitors have come particularly close to surpassing the compute capabilities of its AI hardware. Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang would prefer to keep it this way, with Huang overseeing the expected launch of a next-gen chip annually.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Nvidia 的核心優勢之一是沒有外部競爭對手能夠接近其人工智能硬件的計算能力。Nvidia 首席執行官黃仁勳希望保持這種狀態，黃仁勳監督着下一代芯片的預期年度發佈。</p>
</div><p>The production ramp-up has already begun for Blackwell successor Blackwell Ultra, with deliveries of the Vera Rubin and Vera Rubin Ultra expected to take place in the latter half of 2026 and 2027, respectively. Nvidia is unlikely to cede its compute edge anytime soon.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Blackwell 繼任者 Blackwell Ultra 的生產已經開始，Vera Rubin 和 Vera Rubin Ultra 的交付預計將在 2026 年下半年和 2027 年進行。Nvidia 不太可能在短期內放棄其計算優勢。</p>
</div><p>Building on this point, it has AI GPU scarcity working in its favor. Even with <strong>Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing</strong> doing what it can to meaningfully expand its monthly chip-on-wafer-on-substrate capacity, demand for Nvidia's GPUs continues to handily outpace their supply. This is an enviable position that's allowed Nvidia to sustain a premium price on its hardware, which has provided a lift to its gross margin.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在這一點上，人工智能 GPU 的稀缺性對 Nvidia 有利。即使 <strong>台灣半導體制造公司</strong> 盡其所能地擴大其每月的芯片 - 硅片 - 基板產能，Nvidia 的 GPU 需求仍然遠遠超過供應。這是一個令人羨慕的地位，使 Nvidia 能夠在其硬件上維持高價，從而提升了其毛利率。</p>
</div><p>There's also the unsung hero of Nvidia's operating model: the CUDA software platform. CUDA is the toolkit used by developers to maximize the compute abilities of their Nvidia GPUs, which includes building and training large language models. CUDA is an effective lure that keeps existing clients loyal to Nvidia's ecosystem of hardware and services.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>還有 Nvidia 運營模式中的無名英雄：CUDA 軟件平台。CUDA 是開發者用來最大化 Nvidia GPU 計算能力的工具包，包括構建和訓練大型語言模型。CUDA 是一個有效的誘餌，使現有客户忠於 Nvidia 的硬件和服務生態系統。</p>
</div><p>With shipments of AI GPUs to China back on the menu and orders for its next-gen chips backlogged, the sky would appear to be the limit for Nvidia -- but you wouldn't know it by looking at the track record of its insiders.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>隨着對中國的人工智能 GPU 出貨恢復以及下一代芯片的訂單積壓，Nvidia 似乎前景無限——但從其內部人士的記錄來看，你可能不會這樣認為。</p>
</div><h2>Nvidia's insiders offer a clear warning to Wall Street and investors</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>Nvidia 的內部人士向華爾街和投資者發出明確警告</h2>
</div><p>An &#34;insider&#34; is someone at a publicly traded company with access to nonpublic information, such as a member of the executive team, someone on the board of directors, or a beneficial shareholder with a greater than 10% stake. No one understands the catalysts and pitfalls of their company better than these folks.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“內部人士” 是指在上市公司中擁有非公開信息的人，例如執行團隊成員、董事會成員或持有超過 10% 股份的受益股東。沒有人比這些人更瞭解他們公司的催化劑和陷阱。</p>
</div><p>Thanks to Wall Street regulations, insiders are required to report their trading activity within two business days of a transaction via a Form 4 filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission. In other words, if insiders of a company are buying or selling shares or exercising options contracts, investors will know about it.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>由於華爾街的法規，內部人士必須在交易後的兩個工作日內通過向證券交易委員會提交的 Form 4 報告其交易活動。換句話説，如果公司的內部人士在買賣股票或行使期權合約，投資者將會知道。</p>
</div><p>Nvidia's insider trading activity is sounding a warning that Wall Street and investors would be wise not to ignore.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Nvidia 的內部交易活動發出了一個警告，華爾街和投資者最好不要忽視。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MzE5NTQvcmVkLWRpY2UtYnV5LXNlbGwtc3RvY2stY2hhcnQtZmluYW5jaWFsLWRhdGEtaW52ZXN0LWJpbGxpb25haXJlLWdldHR5LmpwZyZ3PTcwMA" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F831954%2Fred-dice-buy-sell-stock-chart-financial-data-invest-billionaire-getty.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>圖片來源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><p>Over the trailing-five-year period (as of this writing on Sept. 3), insiders have sold a net of $4.7 billion worth of Nvidia stock.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在過去五年（截至 9 月 3 日）的時間裏，內部人士淨售出了價值 47 億美元的 Nvidia 股票。</p>
</div><p>However, there's an asterisk that accompanies insider selling activity -- namely, executives receive the lion's share of their compensation in the form of common stock and/or options. Often, stock needs to be sold to cover their federal and/or state tax liability. Likewise, options need to be exercised before they expire, which can result in tax-based selling. The key point is that selling activity from insiders isn't automatically a bad thing.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，內部人士賣出活動伴隨着一個註釋——即高管們的薪酬大部分以普通股和/或期權的形式獲得。通常，股票需要被出售以覆蓋他們的聯邦和/或州税負。同樣，期權需要在到期前行使，這可能導致基於税務的賣出。關鍵點是，內部人士的賣出活動並不自動意味着壞事。</p>
</div><p>But there's another side to this coin -- and that's where the real worry arises.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但這枚硬幣還有另一面——這才是真正的擔憂所在。</p>
</div><p>While selling activity has been persistent over the last five years, buying has been virtually nonexistent. The last purchase from an executive or board member occurred on Dec. 3, 2020, with CFO Colette Kress reporting respective purchases of 100 shares for each of her sons. Prior to Kress, director Stephen Neal acquired 948 shares, in aggregate, from Sept. 21, 2020, through Sept. 25, 2020. Cumulatively, the people who know Nvidia best have spent only $581,000 of their own money to buy its shares over the trailing half-decade.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>儘管過去五年賣出活動持續不斷，但買入幾乎不存在。最後一次來自高管或董事會成員的購買發生在 2020 年 12 月 3 日，首席財務官 Colette Kress 報告為她的兩個兒子各購買了 100 股。在 Kress 之前，董事 Stephen Neal 在 2020 年 9 月 21 日至 2020 年 9 月 25 日期間累計購買了 948 股。總的來説，瞭解 Nvidia 最好的人在過去五年中僅花費了 581,000 美元購買其股票。</p>
</div><p>Whereas numerous reasons exist to sell stock, there's only one reason to be a buyer: You believe the share price will head higher. If none of Nvidia's executives and directors are willing to take the plunge with shares up 1,070% in less than three years, why should investors be expected to jump in?</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>雖然存在許多賣出股票的理由，但只有一個買入的理由：你相信股價會上漲。如果 Nvidia 的高管和董事都不願意在不到三年內股價上漲 1,070% 的情況下進行投資，為什麼投資者應該被期望跳入呢？</p>
</div><p>Despite Nvidia having a rosy long-term forecast, its price-to-sales ratio of more than 25 is bordering on bubble territory. Further, no next-big-thing technological advancement in over 30 years has avoided an eventual early-stage bubble-bursting event. The lack of buying from insiders paints a picture worth a thousand words.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>儘管英偉達擁有樂觀的長期預測，但其超過 25 的市銷率已接近泡沫區域。此外，過去 30 多年沒有任何一項下一個重大技術進步能夠避免最終的早期泡沫破裂事件。內部人士缺乏買入行為所描繪的圖景不言而喻。</p>
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The People Who Know Nvidia Best Are Sounding a Warning -- but Is Anyone Listening?

- Nvidia 在 2023 年以來市值增加約 3.8 萬億美元，股價上漲 1,070%。
- 內部人士在過去五年淨售出 47 億美元股票，幾乎沒有買入活動。
- 儘管前景樂觀，Nvidia 的市銷率超過 25，接近泡沫邊緣。

最瞭解 NVIDIA 的人正在發出警告——但有人在傾聽嗎？