<p>每當有限資產遇到似乎無止境的需求時，價格往往會不斷上漲。</p>
<p>這正是 <strong>比特幣</strong>（BTC -1.30%）今天所處的狀態。一方面，協議的最新減半意味着每天新挖掘的幣量幾乎只是開胃菜的份量。另一方面，一類新的穩定買家帶着大量資本出現，他們希望獲得一頓七道菜的資產。</p>
<p>供需之間的不匹配可能不會消失。那麼，讓我們更詳細地探討這一動態，並解讀它對比特幣長期的意義。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MzE4MTgvYml0Y29pbi1nZXR0eS5qcGcmdz03MDA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MzE4MTgvYml0Y29pbi1nZXR0eS5qcGcmdz03MDA"/></p>
<p>圖片來源：Getty Images。</p>
<h2>新買家是結構性的，而新供應是固定且緩慢的</h2>
<p>在比特幣 2024 年 4 月的減半後，平均每天挖掘約 450 個新幣。請記住，這個新供應量是未來將生產的最多的，因為未來的減半將不斷將挖礦獎勵減半。</p>
<p>美國現貨交易所交易基金（ETFs）越來越多地吸收超過每日新發行的比特幣。8 月 25 日，淨流入總額約為 1.735 億美元，這一數字相當於當天挖礦產出的三倍。但這個數字實際上顯著低估了需求的強勁，因為它僅僅是一天的數據，且只來自一種買家。</p>
<p>在 2025 年，基金和 ETF 平均每天購買 1,430 個比特幣，極大地加劇了需求的不平衡。儘管如此，實際上今年最大的淨買家是企業，2025 年公司平均每天吸納約 1,755 個比特幣。越來越多的公司宣佈計劃在其企業財庫中持有該資產；與此同時，越來越多的新加密財庫企業也在成立。</p>
<p>換句話説，這裏呈現的是一組多樣化的買家相互競爭，競相出價以獲取一些現有的比特幣供應，因為新挖掘的供應遠遠不足以滿足他們的需求。完全有可能的是，這種情況永遠不會改變。</p>
<h2>為什麼這可能推動多年的上漲趨勢</h2>
<p>當具有長期投資時間框架的結構性買家超越新供應時，價格發現的過程就轉向説服現有持有者出售他們的幣。</p>
<p>這往往需要隨着時間的推移而提高價格。即使某一購買羣體明天停止購買，其他羣體仍然會在平均一天內吸納遠超礦工的產出，保持市場的基本支撐。</p>
<p>此外，比特幣的存量已經大部分發行：協議的 2100 萬個可挖掘幣中，已有 1990 萬個，或 95% 存在，且如前所述，發行量在每次減半後將繼續減緩。這個想法是，隨着時間的推移，新供應將逐漸減緩，而需求來源將多樣化、機構化，並在很大程度上拒絕出售。</p>
<p>在買家面臨看跌的宏觀經濟條件或難以資助其購買之前——這在短期內非常不可能，因為主要資產管理公司和金融機構通常不會缺乏資本——因此，比特幣的價格偏向上漲。滿足買家的需求可能需要數年時間，甚至可能永遠不會發生。</p>
<p>當然，比特幣仍然可能會大幅下跌，至少是暫時的。</p>
<p>同樣，提供大額流入的 ETF 管道如果情緒轉變也可能導致流出。企業購買也往往是集中進行的，如果董事會變得謹慎或融資成本上升，購買可能會暫停。而且顯然，全球流動性的急劇收緊可能會削弱需求。</p>
<p>因此，將持續的供應緊縮視為一種持久的順風，而不是一種全時的保證。假設 ETF 大多數月份保持淨流入，企業繼續積累幣，供應曲線將有利於持有者。價格將發揮配給有限資產的作用。</p>
<p>對於長期投資者來説，這裏的策略是耐心地隨着時間的推移積累幣，最好採用自動化的方式，比如定投（DCA）。比特幣核心的供需不平衡將會處理剩下的事情。</p>

GBTC

<p>比特幣因其最新的減半事件正經歷顯著的需求激增，這一事件將每日新供應量限制在約 450 個幣。包括企業和 ETF 在內的結構性買家正在購買超過每日挖礦產出的比特幣，造成持續的供需失衡。這一動態表明，比特幣的價格在長期內可能會繼續上漲，因為現有持有者有動力在更高的價格出售。然而，潛在的市場波動和宏觀經濟條件可能會影響需求。建議長期投資者逐步積累比特幣，利用當前的供應緊縮</p>

<p>Whenever a finite asset runs into a seemingly insatiable amount of demand, prices tend to go up and up.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>每當有限資產遇到似乎無止境的需求時，價格往往會不斷上漲。</p>
</div><p>And that's about where <strong>Bitcoin</strong>(BTC -1.30%) sits today. On one side, the protocol's latest halving means that barely an appetizer's worth of new coins are mined each day. On the other side, a new category of steady buyers with a huge amount of capital on hand has arrived, and they're looking for a seven-course meal's worth of the asset.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這正是 <strong>比特幣</strong>（BTC -1.30%）今天所處的狀態。一方面，協議的最新減半意味着每天新挖掘的幣量幾乎只是開胃菜的份量。另一方面，一類新的穩定買家帶着大量資本出現，他們希望獲得一頓七道菜的資產。</p>
</div><p>The mismatch between supply and demand probably isn't going anywhere, either. So let's explore this dynamic in a bit more detail and unpack what it means for Bitcoin over the long term.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>供需之間的不匹配可能不會消失。那麼，讓我們更詳細地探討這一動態，並解讀它對比特幣長期的意義。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MzE4MTgvYml0Y29pbi1nZXR0eS5qcGcmdz03MDA" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F831818%2Fbitcoin-getty.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>圖片來源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><h2>The new buyers are structural, while new supply is fixed and slow</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>新買家是結構性的，而新供應是固定且緩慢的</h2>
</div><p>After Bitcoin's April 2024 halving, roughly 450 new coins are mined each day. Recall that this amount of new supply is the most that will ever be produced because future halvings will slash the mining reward in half again and again.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在比特幣 2024 年 4 月的減半後，平均每天挖掘約 450 個新幣。請記住，這個新供應量是未來將生產的最多的，因為未來的減半將不斷將挖礦獎勵減半。</p>
</div><p>U.S. spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) increasingly absorb more than the daily new issuance. On Aug. 25, net inflows totaled about $173.5 million, a figure that equates to about triple that day's mining output. But that figure actually significantly undersells the strength of demand because it's data from just one day and from just one type of buyer.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美國現貨交易所交易基金（ETFs）越來越多地吸收超過每日新發行的比特幣。8 月 25 日，淨流入總額約為 1.735 億美元，這一數字相當於當天挖礦產出的三倍。但這個數字實際上顯著低估了需求的強勁，因為它僅僅是一天的數據，且只來自一種買家。</p>
</div><p>Funds and ETFs bought 1,430 bitcoins per day on average in 2025, intensifying the demand imbalance dramatically. Despite that, it's actually businesses that have been the largest net buyers of the coin this year, with companies pulling in a shocking sum of about 1,755 coins per day on average in 2025. And more and more companies are announcing that they plan to hold the asset in their corporate treasuries; at the same time, more and more new crypto treasury businesses are launching.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在 2025 年，基金和 ETF 平均每天購買 1,430 個比特幣，極大地加劇了需求的不平衡。儘管如此，實際上今年最大的淨買家是企業，2025 年公司平均每天吸納約 1,755 個比特幣。越來越多的公司宣佈計劃在其企業財庫中持有該資產；與此同時，越來越多的新加密財庫企業也在成立。</p>
</div><p>In other words, the picture here is one of a diverse set of buyers competing with each other to bid higher and higher to secure some of the existing Bitcoin supply, as the newly mined supply is nowhere near enough to sate their appetite. It's fully possible that it never will be.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>換句話説，這裏呈現的是一組多樣化的買家相互競爭，競相出價以獲取一些現有的比特幣供應，因為新挖掘的供應遠遠不足以滿足他們的需求。完全有可能的是，這種情況永遠不會改變。</p>
</div><h2>Why this could power a multiyear uptrend</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>為什麼這可能推動多年的上漲趨勢</h2>
</div><p>When structural buyers with long investment time frames outpace fresh supply, price discovery shifts to persuading existing holders to part with coins.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>當具有長期投資時間框架的結構性買家超越新供應時，價格發現的過程就轉向説服現有持有者出售他們的幣。</p>
</div><p>That tends to require higher prices over time. Even if one buying cohort stopped tomorrow, the others would still be taking in much more than miners produce on an average day, keeping a tailwind under the market's baseline.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這往往需要隨着時間的推移而提高價格。即使某一購買羣體明天停止購買，其他羣體仍然會在平均一天內吸納遠超礦工的產出，保持市場的基本支撐。</p>
</div><p>Plus Bitcoin's stock is already mostly issued: 19.9 million, or 95%, of the protocol's 21 million mineable coins now exist, and issuance will keep slowing after each halving as mentioned previously. The idea is that over time there will be a steadily slowing trickle of new supply while demand sources diversify, institutionalize, and largely refuse to sell.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>此外，比特幣的存量已經大部分發行：協議的 2100 萬個可挖掘幣中，已有 1990 萬個，或 95% 存在，且如前所述，發行量在每次減半後將繼續減緩。這個想法是，隨着時間的推移，新供應將逐漸減緩，而需求來源將多樣化、機構化，並在很大程度上拒絕出售。</p>
</div><p>Until buyers face bearish macroeconomic conditions or struggle to fund their purchases -- which is very unlikely in the near term, as major asset managers and financial institutions are typically not short on capital -- Bitcoin's price is thus biased to the upside. Satisfying buyers' hunger could take years, if it ever happens.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在買家面臨看跌的宏觀經濟條件或難以資助其購買之前——這在短期內非常不可能，因為主要資產管理公司和金融機構通常不會缺乏資本——因此，比特幣的價格偏向上漲。滿足買家的需求可能需要數年時間，甚至可能永遠不會發生。</p>
</div><p>Of course, Bitcoin could still go down by a lot, at least temporarily.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>當然，比特幣仍然可能會大幅下跌，至少是暫時的。</p>
</div><p>The same ETF pipes that deliver big inflows can deliver outflows if sentiment shifts. Corporate buying also comes in lumps, and can pause if boardrooms get cautious or if financing costs rise. And it's obvious that a sharp tightening of global liquidity could dent demand.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>同樣，提供大額流入的 ETF 管道如果情緒轉變也可能導致流出。企業購買也往往是集中進行的，如果董事會變得謹慎或融資成本上升，購買可能會暫停。而且顯然，全球流動性的急劇收緊可能會削弱需求。</p>
</div><p>Therefore, treat the persistent supply squeeze as a durable tailwind, not an all-weather guarantee. Assuming that the ETFs maintain net inflows most months, and corporations continue to accumulate coins, the supply curve will favor holders. Price will do the work of rationing a finite asset.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>因此，將持續的供應緊縮視為一種持久的順風，而不是一種全時的保證。假設 ETF 大多數月份保持淨流入，企業繼續積累幣，供應曲線將有利於持有者。價格將發揮配給有限資產的作用。</p>
</div><p>For long-term investors, the strategy here is to accumulate coins patiently over time, preferably in an automated fashion like with dollar-cost averaging (DCAing). The core supply-demand imbalance at the heart of Bitcoin will take care of the rest.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>對於長期投資者來説，這裏的策略是耐心地隨着時間的推移積累幣，最好採用自動化的方式，比如定投（DCA）。比特幣核心的供需不平衡將會處理剩下的事情。</p>
</div>

這一新的動態可能會在未來幾年持續推動比特幣價格上漲