<p>由於美國法院系統的判決，<strong>蘋果</strong>(AAPL -0.16%) 的未來變得不再模糊。在針對谷歌搜索的壟斷案中，法官去年裁定該業務確實違反了美國的反競爭法律。從那時起，關於如何保持公平商業實踐的補救措施進行了討論。</p>
<p>儘管該案件並不是針對蘋果的，但訴訟對其與谷歌搜索的現金牛許可協議構成了重大威脅，該案件提到的壟斷行為可能被視為非法。在一些人看來是意外的裁決中，法官在 9 月 2 日決定，只要這些支付不是獨佔協議，蘋果可以接受來自谷歌搜索的這些款項。</p>
<p>每年超過 200 億美元的許可費用，這對蘋果來説是一個巨大的利潤驅動因素，這也是為什麼在公告發布後，股票上漲了 4%。以下是該裁決對蘋果及其股票在人工智能（AI）時代的影響。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MzIwNDUvd29tYW4tbG9va2luZy1hdC1waG9uZS5qcGcmdz03MDA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="700" height="466" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MzIwNDUvd29tYW4tbG9va2luZy1hdC1waG9uZS5qcGcmdz03MDA"/></p>
<p>圖片來源：Getty Images。</p>
<h2>軟件許可協議</h2>
<p>蘋果的客户羣體是一個極具盈利潛力的人羣。它擁有超過 20 億台活躍的計算設備——從 iPhone 到 Air Pods——這些設備的使用傾向於西方國家的高收入人羣。這為移動應用和軟件開發者提供了巨大的收入機會。</p>
<p>為了保持在搜索引擎市場的主導地位，谷歌及其母公司 <strong>Alphabet</strong>(GOOG 1.04%) 開始向蘋果支付許可費用，以使谷歌搜索成為蘋果 Safari 瀏覽器的默認搜索提供商。包括在 Safari 上發生的搜索收入分成，蘋果從谷歌獲得的支付隨着業務增長而增加，目前報告的金額已達到每年 200 億美元或更高。</p>
<p>蘋果的合併運營收益為 1300 億美元。儘管該公司仍然主要通過銷售 iPhone 獲得利潤，但來自谷歌的這筆單一費用佔其年度運營收益的 15% 以上。加上潛在的其他許可協議，蘋果現在已被確認可以合法地接受這些款項。</p>
<h2>蘋果在 AI 領域是否落後？</h2>
<p>保留谷歌的支付可能讓蘋果的股東鬆了一口氣。如果裁決結果相反，將會使蘋果的市值蒸發數千億美元，並導致股價下跌。</p>
<p>股東們今天應該關注的是蘋果在 AI 領域是否落後。其品牌的 “蘋果智能” 產品在消費者中反響平平，而其搭載 AI 的新硬件工具，如 Vision Pro，表現不佳。更糟糕的是，蘋果據報道失去了大量 AI 開發人才，流向了 OpenAI、XAI 和 Alphabet 等公司，這可能進一步使其在競爭中處於劣勢。</p>
<p>這使得蘋果重新回到了其舊有的技術許可戰略。它與製造谷歌搜索的同一家公司：Alphabet。Alphabet 的 Gemini 聊天機器人目前不如 ChatGPT 受歡迎，但由於其在雲計算和半導體投資方面的領先基礎設施，能夠在數十億用户中擴展使用。隨着法院裁決的結果，新聞媒體報道，新的 AI 搜索工具可能會由 Siri 驅動 Gemini，儘管協議尚未最終確定。</p>
<p>問題是：蘋果會因這項合作從 Alphabet 獲得支付嗎？鑑於 AI 與傳統搜索引擎市場之間的差異，目前尚不清楚協議將如何運作。構建和部署 AI 是昂貴的。如果蘋果要用 Gemini 為 Siri 提供動力，可能需要承擔部分費用。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/1c669243d09e4b2144863ce2bfbd4cdd.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="720" height="441" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/1c669243d09e4b2144863ce2bfbd4cdd.png"/></p>
<p>AAPL 市盈率數據來自 YCharts。</p>
<h2>這對蘋果股票意味着什麼</h2>
<p>蘋果每年仍能從 Alphabet 獲得 200 億美元或更多的收入顯然是個積極信號。從長遠來看，股票的價格將隨着其基本盈利能力的提升而上漲，如果蘋果在未來五年內能從 Alphabet 獲得 1000 億美元的總許可收入，對業務來説無疑是更好的。</p>
<p>但投資者應該關注的是搜索引擎和 AI 聊天機器人市場的動態變化。五年後，搜索可能會被 ChatGPT 或 Alphabet 自家開發的 Gemini 聊天機器人徹底顛覆，這將消除剛剛獲得美國法院批准的谷歌搜索許可協議。以 3.5 萬億美元的市值來看，五年內獲得 1000 億美元的收益對於今天考慮購買蘋果股票的人來説並不特別相關。</p>
<p>蘋果需要弄清楚的是——投資者需要思考的是——如何成為 AI 時代的首選個人計算硬件。無論是通過新的計算形式還是與 AI 軟件製造商的許可協議，如果蘋果能夠成為人們訪問互聯網和 AI 的首要方式，其收益在長期內應該會增長。</p>
<p>關於蘋果是否能實現這一目標存在許多不確定性。以 36 的市盈率來看，股票並未反映這種不確定性。投資者可能最好暫時避免購買蘋果股票。</p>

蘋果

2 倍做多 AAPL ETF - GraniteShares

蘋果每日 1 倍做空 ETF - Direxion

蘋果每日 2 倍做多 ETF - Direxion

AAPX

AAPY

APLY

<p>美國法院的裁決允許蘋果繼續從谷歌獲得每年超過 200 億美元的搜索許可費，這對公司的利潤驅動作用顯著。該決定緩解了人們對可能影響蘋果收入的反壟斷問題的擔憂。然而，蘋果仍面臨挑戰，因為在人工智能領域的競爭加劇，有報道稱其人才流失到競爭對手。蘋果股票的未來可能取決於其適應不斷變化的搜索和人工智能市場的能力，因為傳統的許可協議可能會因人工智能技術的進步而受到衝擊</p>

<p>The future for <strong>Apple</strong>(AAPL -0.16%) just got a lot less murky thanks to the United States court system. In the monopoly case against Google Search, a judge ruled last year that the business was indeed violating anticompetitive laws in the United States. Since then, there has been deliberation on what the remedies would be to keep fair business practices.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>由於美國法院系統的判決，<strong>蘋果</strong>(AAPL -0.16%) 的未來變得不再模糊。在針對谷歌搜索的壟斷案中，法官去年裁定該業務確實違反了美國的反競爭法律。從那時起，關於如何保持公平商業實踐的補救措施進行了討論。</p>
</div><p>Even though the case was not against Apple, the lawsuit posed a major threat to its cash cow licensing deal for Google Search, which the case mentioned as monopolistic behavior that could be deemed illegal. In what some saw as a surprise ruling, the judge decided on Sept. 2 that it was permissible for Apple to receive these payments from Google Search as long as they are not exclusive deals.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>儘管該案件並不是針對蘋果的，但訴訟對其與谷歌搜索的現金牛許可協議構成了重大威脅，該案件提到的壟斷行為可能被視為非法。在一些人看來是意外的裁決中，法官在 9 月 2 日決定，只要這些支付不是獨佔協議，蘋果可以接受來自谷歌搜索的這些款項。</p>
</div><p>At more than $20 billion in licensing fees a year, this is a huge profit driver for Apple, which is why the stock shot up 4% on the announcement. Here's what the ruling means for Apple and the stock going forward into the age of artificial intelligence (AI).</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>每年超過 200 億美元的許可費用，這對蘋果來説是一個巨大的利潤驅動因素，這也是為什麼在公告發布後，股票上漲了 4%。以下是該裁決對蘋果及其股票在人工智能（AI）時代的影響。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MzIwNDUvd29tYW4tbG9va2luZy1hdC1waG9uZS5qcGcmdz03MDA" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F832045%2Fwoman-looking-at-phone.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>圖片來源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><h2>Software licensing deals</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>軟件許可協議</h2>
</div><p>Apple's customer base is a highly lucrative demographic. It has more than 2 billion active computing devices -- ranging from the iPhone to Air Pods -- that skew usage toward the top earners in countries, especially in the West. This is a huge revenue opportunity for mobile application and software developers.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>蘋果的客户羣體是一個極具盈利潛力的人羣。它擁有超過 20 億台活躍的計算設備——從 iPhone 到 Air Pods——這些設備的使用傾向於西方國家的高收入人羣。這為移動應用和軟件開發者提供了巨大的收入機會。</p>
</div><p>In order to retain its dominance in the search engine market, Google and its now parent company <strong>Alphabet</strong>(GOOG 1.04%) began paying Apple a licensing fee to make Google Search the default search provider on the Apple Safari browser. Including its cut of search revenue that happens on Safari, Apple's payment from Google has grown along with the business and is now reported at $20 billion a year or higher.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>為了保持在搜索引擎市場的主導地位，谷歌及其母公司 <strong>Alphabet</strong>(GOOG 1.04%) 開始向蘋果支付許可費用，以使谷歌搜索成為蘋果 Safari 瀏覽器的默認搜索提供商。包括在 Safari 上發生的搜索收入分成，蘋果從谷歌獲得的支付隨着業務增長而增加，目前報告的金額已達到每年 200 億美元或更高。</p>
</div><p>Apple's consolidated operating earnings are $130 billion. Even though the company still makes the majority of its profit from selling iPhones, this single fee from Google makes up more than 15% of its annual operating earnings. Along with potentially other licensing deals, it has now been solidified as legal for Apple to receive these payments.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>蘋果的合併運營收益為 1300 億美元。儘管該公司仍然主要通過銷售 iPhone 獲得利潤，但來自谷歌的這筆單一費用佔其年度運營收益的 15% 以上。加上潛在的其他許可協議，蘋果現在已被確認可以合法地接受這些款項。</p>
</div><h2>Is Apple falling behind in AI?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>蘋果在 AI 領域是否落後？</h2>
</div><p>Keeping the Google payment likely led to a sigh of relief from Apple shareholders. A ruling in the other direction would have wiped out hundreds of billions in value from Apple's market capitalization and led to a fall in the stock price.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>保留谷歌的支付可能讓蘋果的股東鬆了一口氣。如果裁決結果相反，將會使蘋果的市值蒸發數千億美元，並導致股價下跌。</p>
</div><p>What shareholders should be concerned about today is Apple falling behind in AI. Its branded &#34;Apple Intelligence&#34; products have fallen flat with consumers, and its advanced new hardware tools powered with AI, such as the Vision Pro, have been flops. To make matters worse, Apple has reportedly lost a ton of AI developer talent to the likes of OpenAI, XAI, and Alphabet, which could further leave it behind the curve.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>股東們今天應該關注的是蘋果在 AI 領域是否落後。其品牌的 “蘋果智能” 產品在消費者中反響平平，而其搭載 AI 的新硬件工具，如 Vision Pro，表現不佳。更糟糕的是，蘋果據報道失去了大量 AI 開發人才，流向了 OpenAI、XAI 和 Alphabet 等公司，這可能進一步使其在競爭中處於劣勢。</p>
</div><p>That has led Apple to come back to its old strategy of technology licensing. It is with the same company that makes Google Search: Alphabet. Alphabet's Gemini chatbot is not as popular as ChatGPT today, but Alphabet has the leading infrastructure to scale usage across billions of users given its cloud and semiconductor investments. Along with the court case ruling, news outlets are reporting that a new AI search tool with Siri could be powered by Gemini, although a deal has not been finalized.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這使得蘋果重新回到了其舊有的技術許可戰略。它與製造谷歌搜索的同一家公司：Alphabet。Alphabet 的 Gemini 聊天機器人目前不如 ChatGPT 受歡迎，但由於其在雲計算和半導體投資方面的領先基礎設施，能夠在數十億用户中擴展使用。隨着法院裁決的結果，新聞媒體報道，新的 AI 搜索工具可能會由 Siri 驅動 Gemini，儘管協議尚未最終確定。</p>
</div><p>The question is: Will Apple receive a payment from Alphabet for this partnership? It is unclear exactly how a deal would work out today given the differences between AI and the traditional search engine market. Building and deploying AI is expensive. If Apple is going to power Siri with Gemini, it may need to foot some of this bill.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>問題是：蘋果會因這項合作從 Alphabet 獲得支付嗎？鑑於 AI 與傳統搜索引擎市場之間的差異，目前尚不清楚協議將如何運作。構建和部署 AI 是昂貴的。如果蘋果要用 Gemini 為 Siri 提供動力，可能需要承擔部分費用。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/1c669243d09e4b2144863ce2bfbd4cdd.png" alt="" original-src="https://media.ycharts.com/charts/1c669243d09e4b2144863ce2bfbd4cdd.png"/></p>
<p>AAPL PE Ratio data by YCharts.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>AAPL 市盈率數據來自 YCharts。</p>
</div><h2>What it all means for Apple stock</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>這對蘋果股票意味着什麼</h2>
</div><p>It is clearly a positive that Apple can still receive $20 billion or more a year from Alphabet. In the long run, a stock will appreciate in price along with its underlying profitability, and if Apple can milk $100 billion in total licensing revenue from Alphabet over the next five years, all the better for the business.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>蘋果每年仍能從 Alphabet 獲得 200 億美元或更多的收入顯然是個積極信號。從長遠來看，股票的價格將隨着其基本盈利能力的提升而上漲，如果蘋果在未來五年內能從 Alphabet 獲得 1000 億美元的總許可收入，對業務來説無疑是更好的。</p>
</div><p>But what should give investors pause is the changing dynamics of the search engine and AI chatbot market. Five years from now, search may be totally upended by ChatGPT or even Alphabet's homegrown Gemini chatbot, which would eliminate the Google Search licensing deal that was just given the go-ahead by the United States court system. With a market cap of $3.5 trillion, $100 billion in earnings over five years is not particularly relevant for anyone considering buying Apple stock today.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但投資者應該關注的是搜索引擎和 AI 聊天機器人市場的動態變化。五年後，搜索可能會被 ChatGPT 或 Alphabet 自家開發的 Gemini 聊天機器人徹底顛覆，這將消除剛剛獲得美國法院批准的谷歌搜索許可協議。以 3.5 萬億美元的市值來看，五年內獲得 1000 億美元的收益對於今天考慮購買蘋果股票的人來説並不特別相關。</p>
</div><p>What Apple needs to figure out -- and what investors need to think about -- is how to be the go-to personal computing hardware for the AI era. Whether through new computing form factors or licensing deals with the AI software makers, Apple's earnings should grow over the long term if it can be the No.1 way people access both the <em>internet and AI</em>.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>蘋果需要弄清楚的是——投資者需要思考的是——如何成為 AI 時代的首選個人計算硬件。無論是通過新的計算形式還是與 AI 軟件製造商的許可協議，如果蘋果能夠成為人們訪問互聯網和 AI 的首要方式，其收益在長期內應該會增長。</p>
</div><p>Uncertainty abounds over whether Apple can make this happen. With an expensive-looking price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 36, the stock is not reflecting this uncertainty. It is probably best for investors to avoid buying Apple stock for the time being.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>關於蘋果是否能實現這一目標存在許多不確定性。以 36 的市盈率來看，股票並未反映這種不確定性。投資者可能最好暫時避免購買蘋果股票。</p>
</div>

Apple's $20 Billion Search Payment Survives: Here's What It Means for the Stock

- 美國法院裁定蘋果可合法收取谷歌的 20 億美元許可費。  
- 此判決緩解了蘋果股東的擔憂，股價上漲 4%。  
- 然而，蘋果在人工智能領域的競爭力仍需關注。  

蘋果 200 億美元的搜索支付協議得以保留：這對其股票意味着什麼