<p>（無變化重複）</p><p>週四發佈的 CPI 數據，PPI 則在前一天發佈</p><p>市場普遍預計美聯儲將在 9 月 16-17 日會議上降息</p><p>週五疲弱的就業報告提高了寬鬆的預期</p><p>法院裁決後關税不確定性重新浮現</p><p>作者：路易斯·克勞斯科普夫</p><p>紐約，9 月 5 日（路透社）——在即將到來的這一週，隨着市場面臨關於關税和政府債券收益率的新不確定性，美國股票投資者將迎來一系列通脹數據，而股市則在高估值附近徘徊。儘管 9 月開局不平穩，但基準標準普爾 500 指數（.SPX）週四仍創下歷史新高，過去 35 年中，9 月通常是股票表現最差的月份。週五，隨着美國 8 月就業報告顯示就業增長疲軟，股市出現回調。</p><p>“9 月通常被認為會削弱市場情緒，” Manulife John Hancock Investments 的聯合首席投資策略師馬修·米斯金表示。</p><p>與此同時，他表示，“目前股票並沒有定價很多風險。它們看起來已經完全被高估。”</p><p>週四發佈的美國消費者價格指數突顯了下週的經濟數據，投資者關注通脹數據對利率削減前景和關税對價格影響的信號。在美聯儲主席傑羅姆·鮑威爾上個月末的講話中提到就業風險上升後，市場普遍預計美聯儲將在 9 月 16-17 日的會議上首次降息，時隔九個月。</p><p>在疲弱的就業報告後，投資者押注於更大幅度的寬鬆。</p><p>根據 LSEG 截至週五下午的數據，聯邦基金期貨顯示會議上降息 25 個基點的概率為 90%，降息 50 個基點的概率約為 10%。</p><p>只有 CPI 數據 “遠高於” 預期，才能削弱對貨幣政策即將寬鬆的假設，B Riley Wealth 的首席市場策略師阿特·霍根表示。</p><p>根據期貨數據，到 12 月預計將有約 70 個基點的寬鬆，或近三次標準降息。</p><p>最近，“美聯儲降息的前景一直是推動股市情緒更積極的主要因素，” 米斯金表示。“如果這一趨勢逆轉，那麼對股市可能會造成問題。” 除了 CPI，週三的生產者價格報告也可能揭示進口關税的影響。上個月的 PPI 數據顯示，美國生產者價格在 7 月上漲幅度為三年來最大，因商品和服務成本激增。今年早些時候，關税及其經濟影響是市場面臨的主要風險，但其他因素，如對美聯儲獨立性的質疑和對人工智能交易的謹慎，最近變得更加突出。隨着美國上訴法院裁定特朗普總統的大部分關税是非法的，這一問題本週重新浮出水面。儘管特朗普政府已請求美國最高法院審理保留這些廣泛關税的申請，但這一裁決為市場注入了新的不確定性。</p><p>“感覺貿易戰的迷霧正在消散，而現在我們又回到了其中，” 霍根表示。“這對美國企業、消費者和投資者的決策沒有幫助。” 投資者表示，關税收入的潛在損失加劇了美國財政赤字，這可能是導致美國長期政府債務收益率在本週初大幅上升的一個因素，這一走勢也跟隨了英國和其他地區收益率的大幅跳升。儘管全球長期收益率隨後有所平穩，但其飆升被認為是本週初股市疲軟的一個原因。本週 30 年期美國國債收益率首次突破 5%。這一收益率水平在過去幾年對風險偏好造成了 “問題”，LPL Financial 的首席技術策略師亞當·特恩奎斯特表示。長期債券收益率最後約為 4.78%，在就業數據發佈後收益率普遍下跌。標準普爾 500 指數今年迄今上漲約 10%，最近受到第二季度強勁財報季的推動。根據 LSEG Datastream，標準普爾 500 指數的市盈率攀升至 22.4 倍，基於未來 12 個月的盈利預期，這一估值遠高於其長期平均水平 15.9 倍。</p><p>“投資者面臨來自貿易和關税不確定性的持續威脅，以及可能的經濟數據發佈……這些都可能最終挑戰高企的股票估值，” Ameriprise Financial 的首席市場策略師安東尼·薩格林貝內在一篇評論中寫道。</p><p>“也就是説，投資者已經在幾個月內應對這些動態，股票仍然持續上漲。”</p>

標普 500 指數

<p>美國股市投資者下週將面臨通脹數據，週四將公佈消費者物價指數（CPI）報告，前一天將公佈生產者物價指數（PPI）。市場預計在 9 月 16 日至 17 日的會議上，美聯儲將降息，此前的就業報告表現疲弱。由於法院裁定特朗普大部分關税為非法，關税不確定性再次浮現。標普 500 指數仍接近歷史高位，但分析師警告稱，股票在持續的貿易風險和潛在經濟挑戰下似乎已完全被高估</p>

<p>(Repeats with no changes)</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>（無變化重複）</p>
</div><p>CPI data set for Thursday, PPI a day earlier</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>週四發佈的 CPI 數據，PPI 則在前一天發佈</p>
</div><p>Markets widely expect Fed rate cut at September 16-17 meeting</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>市場普遍預計美聯儲將在 9 月 16-17 日會議上降息</p>
</div><p>Weak jobs report on Friday raises expectations for easing</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>週五疲弱的就業報告提高了寬鬆的預期</p>
</div><p>Tariff uncertainty re-emerges following court ruling</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>法院裁決後關税不確定性重新浮現</p>
</div><p>By Lewis Krauskopf</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>作者：路易斯·克勞斯科普夫</p>
</div><p>NEW YORK, Sept 5 (Reuters) - A spate of inflation data confronts U.S. stock investors in the coming week as markets grapple with fresh uncertainty over tariffs and government bond yields, while equities hover at lofty valuations. The benchmark S&amp;P 500 index (.SPX) closed at a record high on Thursday despite an uneven start to September, which has been the worst month for stocks on average over the past 35 years. Stocks were pulling back on Friday after the monthly U.S. employment report showed job growth weakened in August.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>紐約，9 月 5 日（路透社）——在即將到來的這一週，隨着市場面臨關於關税和政府債券收益率的新不確定性，美國股票投資者將迎來一系列通脹數據，而股市則在高估值附近徘徊。儘管 9 月開局不平穩，但基準標準普爾 500 指數（.SPX）週四仍創下歷史新高，過去 35 年中，9 月通常是股票表現最差的月份。週五，隨着美國 8 月就業報告顯示就業增長疲軟，股市出現回調。</p>
</div><p>“September has been known to see a wearing down of the sentiment picture,” said Matthew Miskin, co-chief investment strategist at Manulife John Hancock Investments.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“9 月通常被認為會削弱市場情緒，” Manulife John Hancock Investments 的聯合首席投資策略師馬修·米斯金表示。</p>
</div><p>At the same time, he said, “stocks aren’t pricing in a lot of risks right now. They look fully valued.”</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>與此同時，他表示，“目前股票並沒有定價很多風險。它們看起來已經完全被高估。”</p>
</div><p>The monthly U.S. consumer price index on Thursday highlights next week’s economic releases, with investors focused on signals from the inflation data about the prospects for interest rate cuts and the fallout from tariffs on prices. Following Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s remarks late last month that flagged rising risks to employment, markets have been widely expecting the central bank to lower rates for the first time in nine months at its September 16-17 meeting.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>週四發佈的美國消費者價格指數突顯了下週的經濟數據，投資者關注通脹數據對利率削減前景和關税對價格影響的信號。在美聯儲主席傑羅姆·鮑威爾上個月末的講話中提到就業風險上升後，市場普遍預計美聯儲將在 9 月 16-17 日的會議上首次降息，時隔九個月。</p>
</div><p>Investors bet on even more accelerated easing after the weak jobs report.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在疲弱的就業報告後，投資者押注於更大幅度的寬鬆。</p>
</div><p>Fed Funds futures were baking in a 90% chance of a quarter-point rate cut at the meeting, and a roughly 10% chance of a heftier half-percentage point cut, LSEG data as of Friday afternoon showed.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>根據 LSEG 截至週五下午的數據，聯邦基金期貨顯示會議上降息 25 個基點的概率為 90%，降息 50 個基點的概率約為 10%。</p>
</div><p>Only a CPI number that comes in “egregiously higher” than estimates could dent assumptions of imminent monetary policy easing, said Art Hogan, chief market strategist at B Riley Wealth.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>只有 CPI 數據 “遠高於” 預期，才能削弱對貨幣政策即將寬鬆的假設，B Riley Wealth 的首席市場策略師阿特·霍根表示。</p>
</div><p>About 70 basis points of easing, or nearly three standard cuts, are projected by December, according to the futures data.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>根據期貨數據，到 12 月預計將有約 70 個基點的寬鬆，或近三次標準降息。</p>
</div><p>Recently, “the prospect of the Fed cutting has been the overwhelming factor driving equity sentiment to be more positive,” Miskin said. “And so if that reverses, then it could be problematic for equities.” Along with CPI, a Wednesday report on producer prices could also reveal impacts from import tariffs. Last month’s PPI data showed U.S. producer prices increased by the most in three years in July as the costs of goods and services surged. Tariffs and their economic implications were the main risk facing markets earlier this year, but other factors such as questions over Fed independence and caution about the artificial intelligence trade have been more prominent recently. The issue returned to the fore this week after a U.S. appeals court ruled that most of President Donald Trump’s tariffs are illegal. While the Trump administration has asked the U.S. Supreme Court to hear a bid to preserve the sweeping tariffs, the ruling injected fresh uncertainty for markets.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>最近，“美聯儲降息的前景一直是推動股市情緒更積極的主要因素，” 米斯金表示。“如果這一趨勢逆轉，那麼對股市可能會造成問題。” 除了 CPI，週三的生產者價格報告也可能揭示進口關税的影響。上個月的 PPI 數據顯示，美國生產者價格在 7 月上漲幅度為三年來最大，因商品和服務成本激增。今年早些時候，關税及其經濟影響是市場面臨的主要風險，但其他因素，如對美聯儲獨立性的質疑和對人工智能交易的謹慎，最近變得更加突出。隨着美國上訴法院裁定特朗普總統的大部分關税是非法的，這一問題本週重新浮出水面。儘管特朗普政府已請求美國最高法院審理保留這些廣泛關税的申請，但這一裁決為市場注入了新的不確定性。</p>
</div><p>“It felt as though the fog of trade war was clearing, and now we’re just back into the thick of it,” Hogan said. “And that doesn’t help corporate America make decisions, consumers make decisions, and investors make decisions.” The potential of lost tariff revenue exacerbating the U.S. fiscal deficit was one factor investors said may have driven long-dated U.S. government debt yields sharply higher at the start of the week, moves that also followed big jumps in yields in the UK and other regions. While long-dated yields globally have since calmed, their spikes were cited as contributing to stock weakness initially during the week. The 30-year U.S. Treasury yield this week hit 5% for the first time in over a month. That yield level has been “problematic” for risk appetite over the past few years, said Adam Turnquist, chief technical strategist for LPL Financial. The long-bond yield was last around 4.78%, with yields falling broadly on Friday after the jobs data. The S&amp;P 500 was up about 10% so far in 2025, helped recently by a solid second-quarter earnings season. The S&amp;P 500’s price-to-earnings ratio climbed to 22.4 times, based on earnings estimates for the next 12 months, a valuation well above its long-term average of 15.9, according to LSEG Datastream.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“感覺貿易戰的迷霧正在消散，而現在我們又回到了其中，” 霍根表示。“這對美國企業、消費者和投資者的決策沒有幫助。” 投資者表示，關税收入的潛在損失加劇了美國財政赤字，這可能是導致美國長期政府債務收益率在本週初大幅上升的一個因素，這一走勢也跟隨了英國和其他地區收益率的大幅跳升。儘管全球長期收益率隨後有所平穩，但其飆升被認為是本週初股市疲軟的一個原因。本週 30 年期美國國債收益率首次突破 5%。這一收益率水平在過去幾年對風險偏好造成了 “問題”，LPL Financial 的首席技術策略師亞當·特恩奎斯特表示。長期債券收益率最後約為 4.78%，在就業數據發佈後收益率普遍下跌。標準普爾 500 指數今年迄今上漲約 10%，最近受到第二季度強勁財報季的推動。根據 LSEG Datastream，標準普爾 500 指數的市盈率攀升至 22.4 倍，基於未來 12 個月的盈利預期，這一估值遠高於其長期平均水平 15.9 倍。</p>
</div><p>“Investors face ongoing threats from trade and tariff unknowns as well as potential economic releases … that could ultimately challenge elevated stock valuations,” Anthony Saglimbene, chief market strategist at Ameriprise Financial, wrote in a commentary.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“投資者面臨來自貿易和關税不確定性的持續威脅，以及可能的經濟數據發佈……這些都可能最終挑戰高企的股票估值，” Ameriprise Financial 的首席市場策略師安東尼·薩格林貝內在一篇評論中寫道。</p>
</div><p>“That said, investors have been navigating those dynamics for months, and stocks have continued to grind higher.”</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“也就是説，投資者已經在幾個月內應對這些動態，股票仍然持續上漲。”</p>
</div>

華爾街下週展望——隨着股票接近歷史高位，通脹數據對市場形成壓力