<p>儘管美國電動車（EV）市場的增長速度比預期慢，但未來幾乎肯定會朝這個方向發展。找到合適的電動車製造商並長期持有可能會為投資者帶來豐厚的回報，但選擇合適的電動車製造商並非易事。我們將快速回顧一下，為什麼聰明的投資者可能會面臨即將到來的買入機會。</p>
<h2>買入機會</h2>
<p>對於消費者來説，預計在 9 月底之前，電動車將會有大幅折扣和激勵措施，因為 7500 美元的聯邦税收抵免將在此時正式結束。</p>
<p>這意味着消費者在税收抵免消失之前會急於購買，從而產生了需求的 “拉動效應”。雖然這對電動車製造商在第三季度來説是件好事，但在第四季度將會出現同樣強烈的需求低迷，可能需要幾個月才能恢復正常。</p>
<p>考慮到電動車行業在第四季度可能面臨的困難，這可能提供了一個買入機會——但哪些電動車製造商值得你的投資呢？</p>
<h2>買入這個：Rivian</h2>
<p>如果你必須選擇一個在第四季度放緩中受影響較小的電動車製造商，那很可能是 <strong>Rivian</strong>（RIVN 3.69%）。這主要是因為該汽車製造商在 2025 年沒有新車發佈，並且其 R1 車型的需求已經開始減弱。相反，<strong>Lucid</strong> 最近推出了其 Gravity SUV 電動車，並且正好在放緩之際開始加速生產——這真是時機不佳。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MzIwNjgvMjAyMi1yaXZpYW4tcjFzLTA3LmpwZyZ3PTcwMA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MzIwNjgvMjAyMi1yaXZpYW4tcjFzLTA3LmpwZyZ3PTcwMA"/></p>
<p>Rivian 的 R1S。圖片來源：Rivian。</p>
<p>話雖如此，Rivian 已經為其備受期待的 R2 SUV 在 2026 年上半年推出做好了準備，隨後將推出 R3 和 R3X。這對該汽車製造商的短期發展至關重要，原因有幾個。</p>
<p>首先，Rivian 專注於顯著降低 R2 的生產成本，相較於其旗艦 R1 系列車型。Rivian 減少了一半的材料清單（BOM），並開發了一種新的精簡製造流程，採用了新的壓鑄方法等。</p>
<p>其次，部分由於所有這些成本降低和流程改進，R2 的起售價將約為 45,000 美元，比其 R1 前身便宜數萬美元。這將顯著打開更主流的美國消費者市場。2026 年將成為 Rivian 更具盈利潛力的一年，而美國電動車市場也應該在此時恢復，為電動車製造商加速生產至關重要的 R2 做好準備。</p>
<h2>不買這個：VinFast Auto</h2>
<p><strong>VinFast Auto</strong>（VFS 0.30%）曾是一個引人注目的電動車投資，如果能夠從其主導的越南市場擴展到美國和歐洲，將有巨大的上行空間。不幸的是，該電動車製造商以昂貴的擴張計劃試圖大展拳腳，但最終失敗了。</p>
<p>現在，該公司正在收縮其全球雄心，專注於亞洲市場，並似乎在創始人兼首席執行官 Pham Nhat Vuong 承諾再向該汽車製造商提供 15 億美元以換取研發資產後，急需新資本。</p>
<p>部分由於其全球擴張嘗試，這家越南電動車製造商在第二季度報告了 8.12 億美元的淨虧損，比去年增加了 15%。</p>
<p>這些數字也沒有好轉，第二季度車輛交付量大幅增長 172%，但收入僅增長 91%，顯示出定價疲軟。此外，儘管第二季度交付量大幅增長 172%，該公司的上半年總交付量僅為 72,167 輛，遠低於其 20 萬輛的年度目標。</p>
<p>VinFast 迄今未能打破美國或歐洲市場的代碼，正在大量虧損，可能僅限於其越南市場，這對投資者來説並不足以承擔持有該股票的風險。相反，儘管 Rivian 的股票今年表現不佳，但明年對該汽車製造商來説將是一個重要年份，而第四季度可能會為你提供一個買入機會，以開始建立一個小的持倉。</p>

RIVN

<p>美國電動車（EV）市場正面臨放緩，為投資者創造了潛在的買入機會。由於 Rivian 將在 2026 年推出 R2 SUV 並進行成本削減，因此被推薦為強勁投資；而 VinFast Auto 則因其全球擴張失敗和重大虧損而不被推薦。Rivian 的股票可能在第四季度提供買入機會，而 VinFast 則在努力實現目標的同時，可能僅限於越南市場</p>

<p>While the U.S. electric vehicle (EV) market has accelerated more slowly off the line than predicted, the future is still almost certainly headed in that direction. Finding the right EV makers and holding them long term could prove lucrative for investors, but picking the right EV maker is easier said than done. We'll take a quick look at why there might be an upcoming buying opportunity for savvy investors.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>儘管美國電動車（EV）市場的增長速度比預期慢，但未來幾乎肯定會朝這個方向發展。找到合適的電動車製造商並長期持有可能會為投資者帶來豐厚的回報，但選擇合適的電動車製造商並非易事。我們將快速回顧一下，為什麼聰明的投資者可能會面臨即將到來的買入機會。</p>
</div><h2>A buying opportunity</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>買入機會</h2>
</div><p>For consumers, you can expect serious discounts and incentives on EVs through the end of September, when the $7,500 federal tax credit on EV purchases officially ends.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>對於消費者來説，預計在 9 月底之前，電動車將會有大幅折扣和激勵措施，因為 7500 美元的聯邦税收抵免將在此時正式結束。</p>
</div><p>That means there's a &#34;pull-through&#34; of demand from consumers rushing in to buy before the credit is gone. As wonderful as that will be for EV makers during the third quarter, it sets up a whiplash when an equally strong lull in demand will follow during the fourth quarter, and it may take months to normalize.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這意味着消費者在税收抵免消失之前會急於購買，從而產生了需求的 “拉動效應”。雖然這對電動車製造商在第三季度來説是件好事，但在第四季度將會出現同樣強烈的需求低迷，可能需要幾個月才能恢復正常。</p>
</div><p>With a rough fourth quarter in store for the EV industry, it could provide a buying opportunity -- but which EV makers deserve your investment?</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>考慮到電動車行業在第四季度可能面臨的困難，這可能提供了一個買入機會——但哪些電動車製造商值得你的投資呢？</p>
</div><h2>Buy this: Rivian</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>買入這個：Rivian</h2>
</div><p>If you had to pick one EV maker that will be impacted less by the fourth-quarter slowdown, it would likely be <strong>Rivian</strong>(RIVN 3.69%). That's simply because the automaker has no vehicle launches in 2025 and has already seen softening demand for its R1 vehicles. On the flip side of that scenario is <strong>Lucid</strong>, which recently launched its Gravity SUV EV and is just beginning to accelerate production right as the slowdown hits -- simply unfortunate timing.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如果你必須選擇一個在第四季度放緩中受影響較小的電動車製造商，那很可能是 <strong>Rivian</strong>（RIVN 3.69%）。這主要是因為該汽車製造商在 2025 年沒有新車發佈，並且其 R1 車型的需求已經開始減弱。相反，<strong>Lucid</strong> 最近推出了其 Gravity SUV 電動車，並且正好在放緩之際開始加速生產——這真是時機不佳。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MzIwNjgvMjAyMi1yaXZpYW4tcjFzLTA3LmpwZyZ3PTcwMA" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F832068%2F2022-rivian-r1s-07.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Rivian's R1S. Image source: Rivian.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Rivian 的 R1S。圖片來源：Rivian。</p>
</div><p>That said, Rivian has positioned itself to take a big step forward when it launches its highly anticipated R2 SUV in the first half of 2026, followed later by the R3 and R3X. It's going to be absolutely crucial to the automaker's near term for a couple of reasons.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>話雖如此，Rivian 已經為其備受期待的 R2 SUV 在 2026 年上半年推出做好了準備，隨後將推出 R3 和 R3X。這對該汽車製造商的短期發展至關重要，原因有幾個。</p>
</div><p>First, Rivian focused on significantly reducing the cost to produce the R2 compared to its flagship R1 line of vehicles. Rivian removed half of the bill of materials (BOM) and developed a new streamlined manufacturing process with new die-casting methods, among other things.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>首先，Rivian 專注於顯著降低 R2 的生產成本，相較於其旗艦 R1 系列車型。Rivian 減少了一半的材料清單（BOM），並開發了一種新的精簡製造流程，採用了新的壓鑄方法等。</p>
</div><p>Second, in part because of all those cost reductions and process improvements, the R2 starting price will be around $45,000, tens of thousands of dollars cheaper than its R1 predecessors. This will significantly open the door to a more mainstream U.S. consumer. 2026 is setting up to be a much more lucrative year for Rivian, and the U.S. EV market should be recovered just in time for the EV maker to ramp up production of the critically important R2.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>其次，部分由於所有這些成本降低和流程改進，R2 的起售價將約為 45,000 美元，比其 R1 前身便宜數萬美元。這將顯著打開更主流的美國消費者市場。2026 年將成為 Rivian 更具盈利潛力的一年，而美國電動車市場也應該在此時恢復，為電動車製造商加速生產至關重要的 R2 做好準備。</p>
</div><h2>Not that: VinFast Auto</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>不買這個：VinFast Auto</h2>
</div><p><strong>VinFast Auto</strong>(VFS 0.30%) was an intriguing EV investment that had massive upside if it could expand from its home market of Vietnam, which it dominates, into the U.S. and Europe. Unfortunately, the EV swung for the fences with an expensive expansion plan, and struck out.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>VinFast Auto</strong>（VFS 0.30%）曾是一個引人注目的電動車投資，如果能夠從其主導的越南市場擴展到美國和歐洲，將有巨大的上行空間。不幸的是，該電動車製造商以昂貴的擴張計劃試圖大展拳腳，但最終失敗了。</p>
</div><p>Now the company is dialing back its global ambitions, focusing on Asian markets, and seems in need of new capital after its founder and CEO Pham Nhat Vuong pledged another $1.5 billion to the automaker in exchange for R&amp;D assets.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>現在，該公司正在收縮其全球雄心，專注於亞洲市場，並似乎在創始人兼首席執行官 Pham Nhat Vuong 承諾再向該汽車製造商提供 15 億美元以換取研發資產後，急需新資本。</p>
</div><p>In part due to its global expansion attempt, the Vietnamese EV maker reported a net loss of $812 million for the second quarter, an increase of 15% from the prior year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>部分由於其全球擴張嘗試，這家越南電動車製造商在第二季度報告了 8.12 億美元的淨虧損，比去年增加了 15%。</p>
</div><p>The numbers don't get better, either, as a large 172% surge in vehicle deliveries during the quarter drove a much more modest 91% gain in revenue, suggesting pricing weakness. Further, despite the large 172% surge in second-quarter deliveries, the company's first half total reached only 72,167 vehicles, a pace that will fall far short of its annual target of 200,000 units.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這些數字也沒有好轉，第二季度車輛交付量大幅增長 172%，但收入僅增長 91%，顯示出定價疲軟。此外，儘管第二季度交付量大幅增長 172%，該公司的上半年總交付量僅為 72,167 輛，遠低於其 20 萬輛的年度目標。</p>
</div><p>VinFast has so far failed to break the code of U.S. or European markets, is bleeding cash, and might be limited to its Vietnam market, which wouldn't provide investors enough growth for the risk of owning the stock. On the flipside, while Rivian's stock has been stuck in the mud this year, next year is setting up to be a big one for the automaker, and the fourth quarter just might bring you a buying opportunity to start a small position.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>VinFast 迄今未能打破美國或歐洲市場的代碼，正在大量虧損，可能僅限於其越南市場，這對投資者來説並不足以承擔持有該股票的風險。相反，儘管 Rivian 的股票今年表現不佳，但明年對該汽車製造商來説將是一個重要年份，而第四季度可能會為你提供一個買入機會，以開始建立一個小的持倉。</p>
</div>

買這個，不買那個：一個電動汽車製造商的風險信號正在閃爍