<p>作者：William Watts</p><p>核心 CPI 數據將是投資者尋找服務業通脹上行壓力跡象時最為關注的：策略師們表示</p><p>通脹擔憂尚未消散。</p><p>投資者可能不會對本週的通脹數據感到緊張，因為他們完全預期美聯儲將在勞動力市場明顯放緩的情況下降息。但他們不應過於樂觀。</p><p>週五，聯邦基金期貨交易員在非農就業數據顯示 8 月份僅增加 22,000 個職位，並且對前幾個月的下調修正將 6 月份的數據推入負值後，預計 9 月 17 日降息的概率為 100%。甚至還有 50 個基點的大幅降息可能性被提上日程，交易員們根據 CME FedWatch 工具預計這種大幅變動的概率為 11%。</p><p>紐約人壽投資公司的經濟學家兼首席市場策略師 Lauren Goodwin 在接受 MarketWatch 電話採訪時表示：&#34;我認為很難有一個 CPI 數字能夠抵消就業報告……不過，我認為值得討論通脹作為市場的宏觀風險。&#34;</p><p>而芝加哥聯邦儲備銀行行長 Austan Goolsbee，作為今年貨幣政策制定的聯邦公開市場委員會的投票成員，週五表示他仍在考慮是否支持 9 月降息。他告訴彭博電視：&#34;我們也必須關注通脹方面。&#34;</p><p>Goolsbee 和其他人將在週三開始關注這一點，屆時將於東部時間上午 8:30 發佈 8 月份生產者價格指數。主要事件將在週四，屆時將發佈 8 月份消費者價格指數。</p><p>經濟學家預計 CPI 將顯示月度上漲 0.3%，同比增長 2.9%，高於 7 月份的 2.7%。剔除波動較大的食品和能源成分的核心 CPI 預計將上漲 0.3%，同比保持在 3.1%。</p><p>核心 CPI 數據的細節將是最重要的，BMO 資本市場的利率策略師 Ian Lyngen 和 Vail Hartman 在週五的報告中表示。</p><p>&#34;我們擔心的風險是重複 7 月份的構成——軟商品通脹與粘性的服務壓力——這並不容易被忽視，&#34;他們寫道。&#34;像 7 月份那樣的單次、受航空票價影響的價格調整是容易被忽視的。然而，如果服務行業的再通脹出現廣泛化，就不能不假設這將對委員會願意發出未來降息信號的程度產生有限影響。&#34;</p><p>投資者本週還將再次關注就業市場，週二將發佈一組稱為《季度就業和工資普查》的修正數據。華爾街經濟學家預計這將顯示美國在 2024 年 4 月至 2025 年 3 月之間新增的就業崗位比之前報告的少 50 萬個，但這一數字可能高達 100 萬個。</p><p>投資者相信，如果 Goolsbee 反對 9 月降息，他將處於少數派。但通脹數據可能會影響對進一步降息的預期，因為預計與關税相關的價格壓力尚未完全傳導到零售層面。</p><p>在週五的就業數據發佈後，股市開盤上漲，投資者預計到年底將總共降息 75 個基點，但隨後回落，最終略微下跌。不過，對於標準普爾 500 指數 SPX 來説，這是一個成功的一週，週四上漲 0.3%，創下歷史新高，而以科技股為主的納斯達克綜合指數 COMP 上漲 1.1%。道瓊斯工業平均指數 DJIA 則落後，周跌幅為 0.3%。在週五的數據發佈後，國債收益率下降，美國美元貶值。</p><p>閲讀：標準普爾 500 指數必須保持在 6400 以上，才能繼續上漲——在 8 月份的就業報告震動市場後，策略師表示。</p><p>股市多頭寄希望於&#34;壞消息就是好消息&#34;的動態，即疲軟的勞動數據和經濟放緩的跡象為降息鋪平道路，同時避免經濟衰退。</p><p>與此同時，關於關税措施如何轉化為價格壓力的不確定性使得美聯儲在 2025 年保持觀望，這讓特朗普總統感到憤怒。</p><p>但上個月，在懷俄明州傑克遜霍爾的演講中，美聯儲主席傑羅姆·鮑威爾強調了對就業市場疲軟的擔憂，表明政策制定者正朝着在 9 月會議上降息的方向前進。</p><p>關於關税相關的進口商品價格上漲有多少傳導到零售層面的估計將是未來幾個月需要關注的關鍵，GlobalData TS Lombard 的首席經濟學家 Freya Beamish 在週五的報告中表示。</p><p>&#34;如果傳導率從目前的 10-20% 上升到 50%，將意味着個人消費支出 (PCE) 通脹超過 3%，&#34;Beamish 寫道，指的是美聯儲偏好的通脹指標個人消費支出指數。美聯儲的通脹目標為 2%。</p><p>Beamish 預計就業市場將在秋季反彈，最近的&#34;模糊信號&#34;可能是對關税引發的經濟放緩的反應，但不太可能將經濟推入衰退。</p><p>而且，勞動力市場的復甦不需要太多，Beamish 表示，美聯儲仍然獨立，可能會再次發出鷹派信號。&#34;目前，美聯儲傾向於關注由關税引起的價格水平變化。但更大的圖景是通脹率的上升，&#34;她説。</p><p>紐約人壽的 Goodwin 不認為關税會導致個人消費支出 (PCE) 的急劇飆升，但指出持續的每月約 0.3% 的增長可能會對消費者和企業構成挑戰，而更大幅度的激增風險是投資者應當關注的。</p><p>也就是説，Goodwin 認為 CPI 再次推高至 2022 年超過 9% 的同比高點的可能性很小。再次推高需要市場相信美聯儲已經改變了對通脹的&#34;心態&#34;。</p><p>雖然特朗普被廣泛認為試圖重塑美聯儲，以便允許比其他情況下更低的利率，但迄今為止市場的反應，預計 2025 年將有三次降息，2026 年還會有幾次，表明投資者並不認為中央銀行會實質性改變其政策。</p><p>不要錯過：特朗普的 “學徒” 風格的美聯儲主席競爭現在開始。以下是您需要了解的內容。</p><p>“我認為市場對美聯儲的期望過高，但根據我們在經濟週期中的位置，這並不是一個嚴重的定價錯誤，” 她説。</p><p>因此，即使市場預計的約 200 個基點的降息可能過於雄心勃勃，但 Goodwin 表示，偶爾的降息信號可能足以在未來六到九個月內限制美國股票的下行風險，因為投資者關注關税和其他政策變化如何影響經濟。</p><p>-威廉·瓦茨</p><p>此內容由 MarketWatch 創建，MarketWatch 由道瓊斯公司運營。MarketWatch 與道瓊斯新聞通訊和《華爾街日報》獨立出版。</p>

納斯達克 OMX 交易所

<p>華爾街預計美聯儲將在 9 月 17 日降息，原因是疲弱的勞動力市場和通脹數據。聯邦基金期貨顯示降息的概率為 100%，同時也考慮到可能的 50 個基點的降息。關鍵的通脹指標，特別是核心消費者物價指數（CPI），將在本週發佈，這將影響未來的降息預期。儘管在初期上漲後股票略有回落，但標準普爾 500 指數和納斯達克綜合指數在本週結束時表現積極。投資者希望疲軟的勞動力數據能夠促使降息，而不會引發經濟衰退</p>

<p>By William Watts</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>作者：William Watts</p>
</div><p>Core CPI reading will matter most as investors look for signs of upward pressure on services inflation: strategists</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>核心 CPI 數據將是投資者尋找服務業通脹上行壓力跡象時最為關注的：策略師們表示</p>
</div><p>Inflation fears haven't been put to bed.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>通脹擔憂尚未消散。</p>
</div><p>Investors probably won't sweat this week's inflation data as they fully pencil in a Federal Reserve rate cut following clear signs the labor market is slowing down. They shouldn't take it too far.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>投資者可能不會對本週的通脹數據感到緊張，因為他們完全預期美聯儲將在勞動力市場明顯放緩的情況下降息。但他們不應過於樂觀。</p>
</div><p>Fed-funds futures traders on Friday priced in a 100% probability of a rate cut on Sept. 17 after nonfarm payrolls showed a rise of just 22,000 in August, accompanied by downside revisions to previous months that pushed the June reading into negative territory. Even the possibility of an outsize 50 basis point cut was put on the table, with traders pricing in a 11% probability of an outsize move, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>週五，聯邦基金期貨交易員在非農就業數據顯示 8 月份僅增加 22,000 個職位，並且對前幾個月的下調修正將 6 月份的數據推入負值後，預計 9 月 17 日降息的概率為 100%。甚至還有 50 個基點的大幅降息可能性被提上日程，交易員們根據 CME FedWatch 工具預計這種大幅變動的概率為 11%。</p>
</div><p>&#34;I think it would be very difficult to have a CPI number that offsets the jobs report...That said, I think it's worth talking about inflation as a macro risk for markets,&#34; Lauren Goodwin, economist and chief market strategist at New York Life Investments, told MarketWatch in a phone interview.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>紐約人壽投資公司的經濟學家兼首席市場策略師 Lauren Goodwin 在接受 MarketWatch 電話採訪時表示：&#34;我認為很難有一個 CPI 數字能夠抵消就業報告……不過，我認為值得討論通脹作為市場的宏觀風險。&#34;</p>
</div><p>And for his part, Chicago Federal Reserve Bank President Austan Goolsbee, a voting member this year of the rate-setting Federal Open Market Committee, said Friday he was still on the fence about whether to back a September cut. &#34;We've got to look at the inflation side, too,&#34; he told Bloomberg Television.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>而芝加哥聯邦儲備銀行行長 Austan Goolsbee，作為今年貨幣政策制定的聯邦公開市場委員會的投票成員，週五表示他仍在考慮是否支持 9 月降息。他告訴彭博電視：&#34;我們也必須關注通脹方面。&#34;</p>
</div><p>Goolsbee and everyone else will get that look beginning on Wednesday, with the release at 8:30 a.m. ET of the August producer-price index. The main event will be Thursday, with the release of the August consumer-price index.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Goolsbee 和其他人將在週三開始關注這一點，屆時將於東部時間上午 8:30 發佈 8 月份生產者價格指數。主要事件將在週四，屆時將發佈 8 月份消費者價格指數。</p>
</div><p>Economists expect CPI to show a 0.3% monthly rise and to increase 2.9% year over year, up from 2.7% in July. Core CPI, which strips out volatile food and energy components, is expected to show a rise of 0.3% with the year-over-year rate steady at 3.1%.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>經濟學家預計 CPI 將顯示月度上漲 0.3%，同比增長 2.9%，高於 7 月份的 2.7%。剔除波動較大的食品和能源成分的核心 CPI 預計將上漲 0.3%，同比保持在 3.1%。</p>
</div><p>The details of the core CPI reading will matter most, said Ian Lyngen and Vail Hartman, rates strategists at BMO Capital Markets, in a Friday note.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>核心 CPI 數據的細節將是最重要的，BMO 資本市場的利率策略師 Ian Lyngen 和 Vail Hartman 在週五的報告中表示。</p>
</div><p>&#34;The risk we're worrying about is a repeat of July's composition - soft goods inflation with sticky services pressure - that isn't as easy to ignore,&#34; they wrote. &#34;A one-off, airfare-inspired price adjustment as was seen in July is easy to dismiss. However, if there is a broadening out of service sector reflation, one would be remiss not to assume it would have a limited impact on the extent to which the Committee will be willing to signal future rate cuts.&#34;</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>&#34;我們擔心的風險是重複 7 月份的構成——軟商品通脹與粘性的服務壓力——這並不容易被忽視，&#34;他們寫道。&#34;像 7 月份那樣的單次、受航空票價影響的價格調整是容易被忽視的。然而，如果服務行業的再通脹出現廣泛化，就不能不假設這將對委員會願意發出未來降息信號的程度產生有限影響。&#34;</p>
</div><p>Investors will also get another look at the jobs market this week, with the release Tuesday of a set of revisions known as the Quarterly Census on Employment and Wages. Wall Street economists expect it to show the U.S. added 500,000 fewer jobs between April 2024 and March 2025 than previously reported - but the tally could be as high as 1 million fewer jobs.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>投資者本週還將再次關注就業市場，週二將發佈一組稱為《季度就業和工資普查》的修正數據。華爾街經濟學家預計這將顯示美國在 2024 年 4 月至 2025 年 3 月之間新增的就業崗位比之前報告的少 50 萬個，但這一數字可能高達 100 萬個。</p>
</div><p>Investors are confident that Goolsbee will be in the minority if he holds out against a September rate cut. But the inflation data may shape expectations for further cuts given expectations tariff-related price pressures have yet to fully feed through at the retail level.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>投資者相信，如果 Goolsbee 反對 9 月降息，他將處於少數派。但通脹數據可能會影響對進一步降息的預期，因為預計與關税相關的價格壓力尚未完全傳導到零售層面。</p>
</div><p>Stocks opened higher following the Friday jobs data as investors priced in a total of 75 basis points of cuts by year-end, but later pulled back to end the session slightly lower. Still, it was a winning week for the S&amp;P 500 SPX, which rose 0.3% and closed at a record on Thursday, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite COMP, up 1.1%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA lagged behind, losing 0.3% for the week. Treasury yields dropped and the U.S. dollar sank following Friday's data.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在週五的就業數據發佈後，股市開盤上漲，投資者預計到年底將總共降息 75 個基點，但隨後回落，最終略微下跌。不過，對於標準普爾 500 指數 SPX 來説，這是一個成功的一週，週四上漲 0.3%，創下歷史新高，而以科技股為主的納斯達克綜合指數 COMP 上漲 1.1%。道瓊斯工業平均指數 DJIA 則落後，周跌幅為 0.3%。在週五的數據發佈後，國債收益率下降，美國美元貶值。</p>
</div><p>Read: The S&amp;P 500 must stay above 6,400 for the rally to continue - after August jobs report rattles market, strategist says</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>閲讀：標準普爾 500 指數必須保持在 6400 以上，才能繼續上漲——在 8 月份的就業報告震動市場後，策略師表示。</p>
</div><p>Stock-market bulls are counting on a &#34;bad news is good news&#34; dynamic, in which soft labor data and signs of a weakening economy pave the way for rate cuts while averting a recession.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>股市多頭寄希望於&#34;壞消息就是好消息&#34;的動態，即疲軟的勞動數據和經濟放緩的跡象為降息鋪平道路，同時避免經濟衰退。</p>
</div><p>Meanwhile, uncertainty about exactly how tariff measures will translate into price pressures is what has kept the Fed on the sidelines in 2025, much to the anger of President Trump.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>與此同時，關於關税措施如何轉化為價格壓力的不確定性使得美聯儲在 2025 年保持觀望，這讓特朗普總統感到憤怒。</p>
</div><p>But last month, in his speech in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, Fed Chair Jerome Powell put the emphasis on concerns about a weakening jobs market, indicating policymakers were on the path to delivering a cut at the September meeting.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但上個月，在懷俄明州傑克遜霍爾的演講中，美聯儲主席傑羅姆·鮑威爾強調了對就業市場疲軟的擔憂，表明政策制定者正朝着在 9 月會議上降息的方向前進。</p>
</div><p>Estimates of how much of the tariff-related increases in prices of imported goods are being passed through to the retail level will be a key thing to watch in the months ahead, said Freya Beamish, chief economist at GlobalData TS Lombard, in a Friday note.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>關於關税相關的進口商品價格上漲有多少傳導到零售層面的估計將是未來幾個月需要關注的關鍵，GlobalData TS Lombard 的首席經濟學家 Freya Beamish 在週五的報告中表示。</p>
</div><p>&#34;A 50% passthrough rate, up from 10-20% currently would imply PCE inflation above 3%,&#34; Beamish wrote, referring to the personal-consumption expenditures index, the Fed's favored inflation gauge. The Fed's inflation target is 2%.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>&#34;如果傳導率從目前的 10-20% 上升到 50%，將意味着個人消費支出 (PCE) 通脹超過 3%，&#34;Beamish 寫道，指的是美聯儲偏好的通脹指標個人消費支出指數。美聯儲的通脹目標為 2%。</p>
</div><p>Beamish expects the jobs market to see a rebound in the fall, with recent &#34;blurred signals&#34; likely a response to a tariff-induced slowdown that's dragging on the economy but unlikely to push it into recession.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Beamish 預計就業市場將在秋季反彈，最近的&#34;模糊信號&#34;可能是對關税引發的經濟放緩的反應，但不太可能將經濟推入衰退。</p>
</div><p>And it won't take much of a labor market recovery to prompt what Beamish says is a still independent Fed to start sounding hawkish again. &#34;For now, the Fed leans towards a level shift in prices, resulting from tariffs. But the bigger picture is an upshift in the rate of inflation,&#34; she said.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>而且，勞動力市場的復甦不需要太多，Beamish 表示，美聯儲仍然獨立，可能會再次發出鷹派信號。&#34;目前，美聯儲傾向於關注由關税引起的價格水平變化。但更大的圖景是通脹率的上升，&#34;她説。</p>
</div><p>New York Life's Goodwin doesn't expect tariffs to a drive a sharp spike in PCE, but noted that a persistent run of 0.3% or so monthly increases could present a challenge for consumers and businesses, while the risk of a bigger surge is one that should be acknowledged by investors.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>紐約人壽的 Goodwin 不認為關税會導致個人消費支出 (PCE) 的急劇飆升，但指出持續的每月約 0.3% 的增長可能會對消費者和企業構成挑戰，而更大幅度的激增風險是投資者應當關注的。</p>
</div><p>That said, Goodwin puts low odds on a &#34;double peak&#34; that would see CPI pushing back toward the year-over-year top above 9% it scored in 2022. A double peak would require the market coming to believe the Fed has changed its &#34;mindset&#34; toward inflation.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>也就是説，Goodwin 認為 CPI 再次推高至 2022 年超過 9% 的同比高點的可能性很小。再次推高需要市場相信美聯儲已經改變了對通脹的&#34;心態&#34;。</p>
</div><p>While Trump is widely viewed as attempting to reshape the Fed to allow for lower interest rates than would otherwise be the case, the market reaction thus far, pricing in three rate cuts in 2025 and a few more in 2026, indicates investors don't see the central bank materially changing its approach.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>雖然特朗普被廣泛認為試圖重塑美聯儲，以便允許比其他情況下更低的利率，但迄今為止市場的反應，預計 2025 年將有三次降息，2026 年還會有幾次，表明投資者並不認為中央銀行會實質性改變其政策。</p>
</div><p>Don't miss: Trump's 'Apprentice'-style competition for Fed chief starts now. Here's what to know.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>不要錯過：特朗普的 “學徒” 風格的美聯儲主席競爭現在開始。以下是您需要了解的內容。</p>
</div><p>&#34;I think the market is expecting too much from the Fed, but based on where we are in the economic cycle that's not an egregious mispricing,&#34; she said.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“我認為市場對美聯儲的期望過高，但根據我們在經濟週期中的位置，這並不是一個嚴重的定價錯誤，” 她説。</p>
</div><p>So even if the 200 basis points or so in rate cuts penciled in by the markets is likely too ambitious, the signaling of sporadic rate cuts will likely be enough to limit downside for U.S. stocks over the next six to nine months, Goodwin said, as investors monitor how tariffs and other policy changes work their way through the economy.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>因此，即使市場預計的約 200 個基點的降息可能過於雄心勃勃，但 Goodwin 表示，偶爾的降息信號可能足以在未來六到九個月內限制美國股票的下行風險，因為投資者關注關税和其他政策變化如何影響經濟。</p>
</div><p>-William Watts</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>-威廉·瓦茨</p>
</div><p>This content was created by MarketWatch, which is operated by Dow Jones &amp; Co. MarketWatch is published independently from Dow Jones Newswires and The Wall Street Journal.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>此內容由 MarketWatch 創建，MarketWatch 由道瓊斯公司運營。MarketWatch 與道瓊斯新聞通訊和《華爾街日報》獨立出版。</p>
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華爾街視 9 月降息為板上釘釘——CPI 通脹數據可能對未來的走勢產生重大影響