<p>無論市場如何波動，關注沃倫·巴菲特的動向始終是個好主意。他在股票方面的理解和將其轉化為投資成功的能力，隨着時間的推移得到了證明。這位頂級投資者在 <strong>伯克希爾哈撒韋</strong> 的掌舵近 60 年，在此期間推動了約 20% 的年複合回報率。這遠遠超過了 <strong>標準普爾 500 指數</strong>（^GSPC -0.32%），後者的回報率為 10%。</p>
<p>在市場不確定性時期，向巴菲特尋求指導尤其有趣。現在可能正是這樣的時刻——標準普爾 500 指數徘徊在歷史高點附近，而我們正開始進入一個歷來對投資者來説最糟糕的月份。巴菲特最近在做什麼呢？實際上，這位投資巨頭在過去近三年裏，幾乎每個季度都是股票的淨賣出者。</p>
<p>事實上，他的操作導致 <strong>伯克希爾哈撒韋</strong> 的現金儲備達到了 3440 億美元，這可能被視為對華爾街的警告，響亮而清晰。這是否意味着你應該在可能困難的九月份買入或避免股票？讓我們來看看。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MzIxNDQvd2FycmVuLWJ1ZmZldHQtNC10bWYtbWF5LTIwMTQuanBnJnc9NzAw?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MzIxNDQvd2FycmVuLWJ1ZmZldHQtNC10bWYtbWF5LTIwMTQuanBnJnc9NzAw"/></p>
<p>圖片來源：The Motley Fool。</p>
<h2>九月份的股票</h2>
<p>首先，讓我們談談九月份。歷史上，這個月對投資者來説是最糟糕的，如果我們查看最近的數據，這一趨勢得到了證實。在過去五年中，標準普爾 500 指數在九月份僅上漲過一次——去年上漲了 2%。其他九月份則導致了約 3% 到 9% 的損失。如果歷史正確，我們可能正面臨另一個艱難的月份，這可能會暫時降低你的投資組合價值。</p>
<p>現在，讓我們繼續討論巴菲特的警告。這位億萬富翁從不參與大規模的市場運動。例如，如果大家都在購買人工智能（AI）股票，巴菲特就不會加入這個人羣。他這樣做並不是為了反其道而行，而是更傾向於關注價值股——那些今天可能被市場忽視，但具備長期增長潛力的優質公司。</p>
<p>因此，在最近幾個季度，隨着投資者湧向科技股和成長股，標準普爾 500 指數飆升，巴菲特則選擇性地購買，並增加了他的現金儲備，為未來的投資機會做好準備。巴菲特的警告本質上是：股票變得昂貴，因此市場可能隨時回調。</p>
<p>我們可以通過標準普爾 500 指數的 Shiller CAPE 比率看到這一點，目前的水平僅在標準普爾 500 作為 500 家公司指數推出以來出現過兩次。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/5fa74bc65673e5a8c2a7fd0f1bbe5c81.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/5fa74bc65673e5a8c2a7fd0f1bbe5c81.png"/></p>
<p>標準普爾 500 Shiller CAPE 比率數據來源於 YCharts</p>
<h2>巴菲特在這種投資環境中的做法</h2>
<p>Shiller CAPE 比率是一個特別可靠的指標，因為它衡量的是公司每股收益，經過通貨膨脹調整，計算為 10 年期的平均值。目前的水平顯示，整體股票價格昂貴，使得巴菲特在這種環境中採取謹慎態度。</p>
<p>考慮到這一切，在通常被認為是股市最糟糕的月份，你應該買入還是避免股票？像巴菲特一樣，我們都應該密切關注估值，避免購買看起來被高估的股票——但這是一個在任何時候都應遵循的重要規則，無論整體市場是上漲還是下跌。（當然，可能會有一些例外。例如，激進的投資者可能會考慮那些交易價格高昂但長期前景光明的高成長科技公司的股票。）</p>
<h2>未來的機會？</h2>
<p>不過，這並不意味着我們應該完全避免股票，巴菲特也沒有告訴我們停止投資。相反，他龐大的現金儲備暗示目前機會可能有限，很多情況下是由於高估值。但好消息是，如果股票真的遵循歷史趨勢在九月份下跌，這可能會創造機會——因此九月份可能是長期投資者尋找股票的絕佳時機。</p>
<p>巴菲特對此觀點的支持可以從他曾經説過的一句話中看出：“部署資本的最佳時機是當事情下跌時。”</p>
<p>畢竟，整體市場和優質股票隨着時間的推移表明，它們不會永遠處於低迷狀態。因此，當你在低點買入並持有數年時，你可能會為自己創造一個巨大的勝利。</p>
<p>所有這些意味着，是的，你應該考慮在一年中最糟糕的月份買入股票——只要像巴菲特一樣，確保價格合適。</p>

伯克希爾哈撒韋-B

伯克希爾哈撒韋-A

<p>沃倫·巴菲特最近的舉動向投資者發出了謹慎的信號，因為他一直是股票的淨賣家，在伯克希爾哈撒韋積累了 3440 億美元的現金儲備。歷史上，九月通常是股票表現最差的月份，標準普爾 500 指數在大多數年份都出現虧損。巴菲特的策略側重於價值股，避免高估股票，儘管市場趨勢相反。雖然他建議保持謹慎，但他也暗示，如果股價下跌，九月可能為長期投資者提供買入機會</p>

<p>No matter what the market is doing, it's a great idea to keep an eye on the moves of Warren Buffett. He's proved his understanding of stocks over time and his ability to translate that into investing success. The top investor has sat at the helm of <strong>Berkshire Hathaway</strong> for nearly 60 years, and over that time period has helped drive a compounded annual return of about 20%. That far outshines the <strong>S&amp;P 500</strong>(^GSPC -0.32%), which delivered a 10% such return.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>無論市場如何波動，關注沃倫·巴菲特的動向始終是個好主意。他在股票方面的理解和將其轉化為投資成功的能力，隨着時間的推移得到了證明。這位頂級投資者在 <strong>伯克希爾哈撒韋</strong> 的掌舵近 60 年，在此期間推動了約 20% 的年複合回報率。這遠遠超過了 <strong>標準普爾 500 指數</strong>（^GSPC -0.32%），後者的回報率為 10%。</p>
</div><p>And during times of market uncertainty, it's particularly interesting to look to Buffett for guidance. Now may be one of those times -- with the S&amp;P 500 lingering near record highs and as we start off a month that's historically been the worst for investors. What has Buffett been doing in recent times? Well, the investing giant has been a net seller of stocks quarter after quarter for almost three years.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在市場不確定性時期，向巴菲特尋求指導尤其有趣。現在可能正是這樣的時刻——標準普爾 500 指數徘徊在歷史高點附近，而我們正開始進入一個歷來對投資者來説最糟糕的月份。巴菲特最近在做什麼呢？實際上，這位投資巨頭在過去近三年裏，幾乎每個季度都是股票的淨賣出者。</p>
</div><p>In fact, his moves have resulted in a $344 billion cash pile at Berkshire Hathaway, and this may be seen as a warning to Wall Street that's ringing out loud and clear. Does this mean you should buy or avoid stocks during the potentially difficult month of September? Let's find out.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>事實上，他的操作導致 <strong>伯克希爾哈撒韋</strong> 的現金儲備達到了 3440 億美元，這可能被視為對華爾街的警告，響亮而清晰。這是否意味着你應該在可能困難的九月份買入或避免股票？讓我們來看看。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MzIxNDQvd2FycmVuLWJ1ZmZldHQtNC10bWYtbWF5LTIwMTQuanBnJnc9NzAw" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F832144%2Fwarren-buffett-4-tmf-may-2014.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: The Motley Fool.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>圖片來源：The Motley Fool。</p>
</div><h2>Stocks in September</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>九月份的股票</h2>
</div><p>So, first, let's talk about the month of September. It's been the worst for investors over time, and this trend is confirmed if we look at recent data. Over the past five years, the S&amp;P 500 only advanced once in September -- by 2% last year. The other Septembers resulted in losses of about 3% to 9%. If history is correct, we may be heading for another tough month that could lower the value of your portfolio, at least temporarily.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>首先，讓我們談談九月份。歷史上，這個月對投資者來説是最糟糕的，如果我們查看最近的數據，這一趨勢得到了證實。在過去五年中，標準普爾 500 指數在九月份僅上漲過一次——去年上漲了 2%。其他九月份則導致了約 3% 到 9% 的損失。如果歷史正確，我們可能正面臨另一個艱難的月份，這可能會暫時降低你的投資組合價值。</p>
</div><p>Now, let's move on to Buffett's warning. The billionaire never joins in big market movements. For example, if everyone is buying artificial intelligence (AI) stocks, Buffett won't be part of this crowd. He doesn't do this just to be contrary. Instead, Buffett prefers focusing on value stocks -- quality companies that may be overlooked by the general market today but have what it takes to deliver growth over the long run.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>現在，讓我們繼續討論巴菲特的警告。這位億萬富翁從不參與大規模的市場運動。例如，如果大家都在購買人工智能（AI）股票，巴菲特就不會加入這個人羣。他這樣做並不是為了反其道而行，而是更傾向於關注價值股——那些今天可能被市場忽視，但具備長期增長潛力的優質公司。</p>
</div><p>So, in recent quarters, as investors flocked to technology and growth stocks and the S&amp;P 500 soared, Buffett bought selectively and grew his pile of cash, readying himself for future investment opportunities. Buffett's warning is essentially this: Stocks have become expensive, and as a result, the market could pull back at any moment.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>因此，在最近幾個季度，隨着投資者湧向科技股和成長股，標準普爾 500 指數飆升，巴菲特則選擇性地購買，並增加了他的現金儲備，為未來的投資機會做好準備。巴菲特的警告本質上是：股票變得昂貴，因此市場可能隨時回調。</p>
</div><p>We can see this through the S&amp;P 500 Shiller CAPE ratio, today at levels it's only reached twice before since the S&amp;P 500 launched as a 500-company index.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>我們可以通過標準普爾 500 指數的 Shiller CAPE 比率看到這一點，目前的水平僅在標準普爾 500 作為 500 家公司指數推出以來出現過兩次。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/5fa74bc65673e5a8c2a7fd0f1bbe5c81.png" alt="" original-src="https://media.ycharts.com/charts/5fa74bc65673e5a8c2a7fd0f1bbe5c81.png"/></p>
<p>S&amp;P 500 Shiller CAPE Ratio data by YCharts</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>標準普爾 500 Shiller CAPE 比率數據來源於 YCharts</p>
</div><h2>What Buffett does in this investing environment</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>巴菲特在這種投資環境中的做法</h2>
</div><p>The Shiller CAPE ratio is a particularly sound metric because it measures a company's earnings per share, adjusted for inflation, over a 10-year period. And the current level shows that stocks, overall, are expensive, making this the sort of environment that Buffett approaches with caution.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Shiller CAPE 比率是一個特別可靠的指標，因為它衡量的是公司每股收益，經過通貨膨脹調整，計算為 10 年期的平均值。目前的水平顯示，整體股票價格昂貴，使得巴菲特在這種環境中採取謹慎態度。</p>
</div><p>Considering all of this, should you buy or avoid stocks during what generally is the worst month for the stock market? Like Buffett, we all should pay close attention to valuation and avoid buying stocks that look overvalued -- but this is an important rule to invest by at any time, whether the overall market is rising or falling. (Of course, there may be some exceptions. Aggressive investors might, for example, consider shares of a high-growth tech company that's trading for a steep valuation if the full long-term picture looks bright.)</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>考慮到這一切，在通常被認為是股市最糟糕的月份，你應該買入還是避免股票？像巴菲特一樣，我們都應該密切關注估值，避免購買看起來被高估的股票——但這是一個在任何時候都應遵循的重要規則，無論整體市場是上漲還是下跌。（當然，可能會有一些例外。例如，激進的投資者可能會考慮那些交易價格高昂但長期前景光明的高成長科技公司的股票。）</p>
</div><h2>Opportunities on the horizon?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>未來的機會？</h2>
</div><p>Still, this doesn't mean we should avoid stocks altogether, and Buffett isn't telling us to stop investing either. Instead, his huge cash pile implies opportunities may be limited at the moment, in many cases due to high valuations. But here's the good news. If stocks actually follow the historical trend and decline in September, this may create opportunities -- so September may be a fantastic time for the bargain-hunting long-term investor to go shopping for stocks.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>不過，這並不意味着我們應該完全避免股票，巴菲特也沒有告訴我們停止投資。相反，他龐大的現金儲備暗示目前機會可能有限，很多情況下是由於高估值。但好消息是，如果股票真的遵循歷史趨勢在九月份下跌，這可能會創造機會——因此九月份可能是長期投資者尋找股票的絕佳時機。</p>
</div><p>Buffett backs up this idea as we can see in a comment he once made: &#34;The best chance to deploy capital is when things are going down.&#34;</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>巴菲特對此觀點的支持可以從他曾經説過的一句話中看出：“部署資本的最佳時機是當事情下跌時。”</p>
</div><p>After all, the overall market and quality stocks have shown over time that they don't remain in the doldrums forever. So, when you buy at a low point and hold on for a period of years, you could set yourself up for a big win.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>畢竟，整體市場和優質股票隨着時間的推移表明，它們不會永遠處於低迷狀態。因此，當你在低點買入並持有數年時，你可能會為自己創造一個巨大的勝利。</p>
</div><p>All of this means that, yes, you should consider buying stocks during the worst month of the year -- as long as, like Buffett, you make sure the price is right.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>所有這些意味着，是的，你應該考慮在一年中最糟糕的月份買入股票——只要像巴菲特一樣，確保價格合適。</p>
</div>

Warren Buffett's $344 Billion Warning to Wall Street is Ringing Out Loud and Clear. Should You Buy or Avoid Stocks During the Market's Historically Worst Month?

- 沃倫·巴菲特在市場不確定時的投資策略引人關注。  
- 他在過去三年中持續減持股票，現金儲備達 3440 億美元。  
- 九月曆史上對投資者不利，但可能為長期投資者提供低價買入機會。

沃倫·巴菲特向華爾街發出的 3440 億美元警告響徹雲霄。在市場歷史上表現最差的月份，你應該買入股票還是避開股票？