<p>美國生產者價格意外大幅下跌，增強了降息的預期，但由於週三即將公佈消費者價格指數，投資者需要為可能更頑固的通脹形勢做好準備。</p>
<p>經濟學家預測，8 月份的消費者價格指數將顯示年通脹率上升至 2.9%，高於 7 月份的 2.7%。如果得到確認，這將是自 2025 年 1 月以來的最高年增速。</p>
<p>剔除波動較大的食品和能源價格後的核心通脹率預計將保持在 3.1%，這表明潛在的價格壓力仍遠高於美聯儲可接受的目標。</p>
<h2>PPI 意外提升降息預期</h2>
<p>低於預期的 8 月份生產者價格指數增強了市場對美聯儲將在下週開始降息的信心。</p>
<p>整體 PPI 環比下降 0.1%，與預期的 0.3% 上升相悖。年率降至 2.6%，遠低於 3.3% 的預測。核心 PPI 也環比下降 0.1%，年率從 3.4% 降至 2.8%。</p>
<p>“這份低於預期且積極的 PPI 報告證實了我們認為 FOMC 將在下週至少降息 25 個基點的觀點，” 藍籌日報的首席技術策略師 Larry Tentarelli 表示。“在我們看來，降息 50 個基點會更有效，但這尚未被市場定價。”</p>
<p>根據 CME FedWatch 工具，交易員對下週三會議降息 25 個基點的概率賦予了 89.8% 的可能性，而降息 50 個基點的可能性僅為 10.2%。</p>
<h2>另一個熱通脹報告即將來臨，經濟學家警告</h2>
<p>在高盛，經濟學家 <strong>Jessica Rindels</strong> 預測 8 月份的消費者價格指數報告將高於預期，預計核心通脹將上升 0.36%，略高於 0.3% 的共識。這將使年核心通脹率達到 3.13%。</p>
<p>Rindels 預計二手車價格將上漲 1.2%，原因是拍賣價格上漲，而新車價格可能因經銷商激勵措施減少而上漲 0.2%。汽車保險也是另一個上漲壓力的領域，預計保費上漲約 0.4%，原因是維修和訴訟成本上升。</p>
<p>預計機票價格將上漲 3%，受到季節性扭曲和旅行活動增加的推動。此外，關税似乎正在逐漸推高多個類別的價格，特別是家庭用品、服裝和電子產品，導致她所描述的廣泛但受控的通脹動能。</p>
<p>在美國銀行，經濟學家 <strong>Stephen Juneau</strong> 也預測整體和核心 CPI 將環比上漲 0.3%，年核心通脹率將保持在 3.1%。</p>
<p>他將 8 月份的價格壓力主要歸因於非住房服務的堅挺以及關税對商品的持續傳導。Juneau 預計核心商品通脹將保持正增長，傢俱、服裝和娛樂等類別將繼續吸收與關税相關的成本。</p>
<p>在服務方面，這位經濟學家預計機票和外出住宿價格將再次上漲，受到夏季旅行和經過幾個月疲軟後的均值迴歸的推動。</p>
<p>Juneau 警告稱，8 月份上漲的能源價格可能會繼續推動整體通脹上升。儘管如此，他指出美聯儲越來越關注核心指標和長期趨勢，而不僅僅是月度波動。</p>
<h2>這對美聯儲和市場意味着什麼</h2>
<p>華爾街在週三早盤交易中飆升至新的歷史高點，迎接週四的關鍵通脹報告。所有三大主要大型股指數均創下新紀錄，<strong>標準普爾 500 指數</strong>（由 <strong>先鋒標準普爾 500 ETF</strong> VOO 跟蹤）上漲 0.5%，達到 6540 點，使其年初至今的漲幅達到 11%。</p>
<p>9 月份降息被廣泛視為已成定局，但高於預期的 CPI 讀數可能會使 10 月和 12 月的降息預期面臨風險。如果通脹強勁，可能還會重新點燃對滯漲的擔憂，尤其是在 8 月份的勞動市場數據大幅疲軟之後。</p>
<p>上個月，非農就業人數僅增加 22,000，而失業率上升至 4.3%。更令人擔憂的是，美國勞工統計局週二將 2024 年 4 月至 2025 年 3 月期間的就業人數修正下調了驚人的 911,000 個。</p>
<ul>
<li><strong>特朗普抨擊美聯儲，歷史性就業修正——是否為 ‘太晚’ 修復？</strong></li>
</ul>
<p><em>圖像由人工智能通過 Midjourney 生成。</em></p>

高盛

<p>美國生產者價格的意外下降提高了市場對美聯儲降息的預期，下週 25 個基點降息的概率為 89.8%。然而，經濟學家預測消費者價格指數（CPI）同比將上升至 2.9%，這表明通脹壓力依然存在。高盛和美國銀行的分析師預計，由於二手車價格、機票和關税的上漲，核心通脹將會增加。儘管 9 月份降息似乎很可能，但如果 CPI 強於預期，可能會危及未來的降息，並在疲弱的勞動力市場數據中引發滯脹擔憂</p>

<p>A sharper-than-expected drop in U.S. producer prices is bolstering expectations for rate cuts, but with Wednesday's Consumer Price Index on deck, investors will need to brace for a potentially stickier inflation picture.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美國生產者價格意外大幅下跌，增強了降息的預期，但由於週三即將公佈消費者價格指數，投資者需要為可能更頑固的通脹形勢做好準備。</p>
</div><p>Economists forecast that the August Consumer Price Index will show headline inflation climbing to 2.9% year-over-year, up from 2.7% in July. If confirmed, that would be the highest annual pace since January 2025.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>經濟學家預測，8 月份的消費者價格指數將顯示年通脹率上升至 2.9%，高於 7 月份的 2.7%。如果得到確認，這將是自 2025 年 1 月以來的最高年增速。</p>
</div><p>The core inflation rate, which strips out volatile food and energy prices, is expected to remain steady at 3.1%, indicating that underlying price pressures remain well above the Fed’s acceptable target.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>剔除波動較大的食品和能源價格後的核心通脹率預計將保持在 3.1%，這表明潛在的價格壓力仍遠高於美聯儲可接受的目標。</p>
</div><h2>PPI Surprise Boosts Cut Hopes</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>PPI 意外提升降息預期</h2>
</div><p>The softer-than-expected August Producer Price Index has strengthened market conviction that the Federal Reserve will begin cutting rates next week.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>低於預期的 8 月份生產者價格指數增強了市場對美聯儲將在下週開始降息的信心。</p>
</div><p>Headline PPI declined 0.1% month-over-month, defying expectations for a 0.3% rise. The annual rate cooled to 2.6%, well below forecasts for 3.3%. Core PPI also fell 0.1% monthly, with the annual reading dropping from 3.4% to 2.8%.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>整體 PPI 環比下降 0.1%，與預期的 0.3% 上升相悖。年率降至 2.6%，遠低於 3.3% 的預測。核心 PPI 也環比下降 0.1%，年率從 3.4% 降至 2.8%。</p>
</div><p>“This below-forecast and bullish PPI report confirms our view that the FOMC will cut rates by at least 25 basis points next week,” said Larry Tentarelli, chief technical strategist at Blue Chip Daily Trend Report. “In our view, a 50-bps cut would be more effective, but that's not priced in yet.”</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“這份低於預期且積極的 PPI 報告證實了我們認為 FOMC 將在下週至少降息 25 個基點的觀點，” 藍籌日報的首席技術策略師 Larry Tentarelli 表示。“在我們看來，降息 50 個基點會更有效，但這尚未被市場定價。”</p>
</div><p>According to the CME FedWatch Tool, traders assign a 89.8% probability to a 25-basis-point cut at next Wednesday's meeting, with just 10.2% odds of a larger half-point move.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>根據 CME FedWatch 工具，交易員對下週三會議降息 25 個基點的概率賦予了 89.8% 的可能性，而降息 50 個基點的可能性僅為 10.2%。</p>
</div><h2>Another Hot Inflation Report Looms, Economists Warn</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>另一個熱通脹報告即將來臨，經濟學家警告</h2>
</div><p>At Goldman Sachs, economist <strong>Jessica Rindels</strong> is forecasting a hotter-than-expected Consumer Price Index report for August, projecting a 0.36% increase in core inflation, slightly above the consensus of 0.3%. That would bring the year-over-year core rate to 3.13%</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在高盛，經濟學家 <strong>Jessica Rindels</strong> 預測 8 月份的消費者價格指數報告將高於預期，預計核心通脹將上升 0.36%，略高於 0.3% 的共識。這將使年核心通脹率達到 3.13%。</p>
</div><p>Rindels sees used car prices jumping 1.2%, citing a rise in auction prices, while new car prices likely climbed 0.2% due to a drop in dealer incentives. Car insurance is another area of upward pressure, with premiums up an estimated 0.4% amid higher repair and litigation costs.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Rindels 預計二手車價格將上漲 1.2%，原因是拍賣價格上漲，而新車價格可能因經銷商激勵措施減少而上漲 0.2%。汽車保險也是另一個上漲壓力的領域，預計保費上漲約 0.4%，原因是維修和訴訟成本上升。</p>
</div><p>Airfares are expected to have surged 3%, lifted by seasonal distortions and a pickup in travel activity. In addition, tariffs appear to be gradually pushing up prices in several categories—particularly household goods, apparel and electronics—contributing to what she describes as broad but contained inflationary momentum.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>預計機票價格將上漲 3%，受到季節性扭曲和旅行活動增加的推動。此外，關税似乎正在逐漸推高多個類別的價格，特別是家庭用品、服裝和電子產品，導致她所描述的廣泛但受控的通脹動能。</p>
</div><p>At Bank of America, economist <strong>Stephen Juneau</strong> is also forecasting a 0.3% monthly increase in both headline and core CPI, with the annual core rate holding steady at 3.1%.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在美國銀行，經濟學家 <strong>Stephen Juneau</strong> 也預測整體和核心 CPI 將環比上漲 0.3%，年核心通脹率將保持在 3.1%。</p>
</div><p>He attributes much of the August price pressure to firm non-housing services and a continued pass-through of tariffs on goods. Juneau expects core goods inflation to remain positive, with categories like furnishings, apparel and recreation continuing to absorb tariff-related costs.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>他將 8 月份的價格壓力主要歸因於非住房服務的堅挺以及關税對商品的持續傳導。Juneau 預計核心商品通脹將保持正增長，傢俱、服裝和娛樂等類別將繼續吸收與關税相關的成本。</p>
</div><p>On the services side, the economist sees airfares and lodging away from home climbing again, driven by summer travel and mean-reversion after several months of weakness.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在服務方面，這位經濟學家預計機票和外出住宿價格將再次上漲，受到夏季旅行和經過幾個月疲軟後的均值迴歸的推動。</p>
</div><p>Juneau warns that energy prices, which firmed in August, will likely keep headline inflation moving higher. Even so, he notes the Fed is increasingly focused on core metrics and longer-term trends, not just monthly swings.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Juneau 警告稱，8 月份上漲的能源價格可能會繼續推動整體通脹上升。儘管如此，他指出美聯儲越來越關注核心指標和長期趨勢，而不僅僅是月度波動。</p>
</div><h2>What This Means For The Fed and Markets</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>這對美聯儲和市場意味着什麼</h2>
</div><p>Wall Street surged to fresh all-time highs in early Wednesday trading, ahead of Thursday's critical inflation report. All three major large-cap indexes reached new records, with the <strong>S&amp;P 500</strong>– tracked by the <strong>Vanguard S&amp;P 500 ETF</strong> VOO – jumping 0.5% to 6,540, bringing its year-to-date gain to 11%.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>華爾街在週三早盤交易中飆升至新的歷史高點，迎接週四的關鍵通脹報告。所有三大主要大型股指數均創下新紀錄，<strong>標準普爾 500 指數</strong>（由 <strong>先鋒標準普爾 500 ETF</strong> VOO 跟蹤）上漲 0.5%，達到 6540 點，使其年初至今的漲幅達到 11%。</p>
</div><p>A September rate cut is widely seen as locked in, but a hotter-than-expected CPI reading could put October and December rate cut expectations at risk. If inflation comes in strong, it could also reignite concerns of stagflation, especially after August's sharply weaker labor market data.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>9 月份降息被廣泛視為已成定局，但高於預期的 CPI 讀數可能會使 10 月和 12 月的降息預期面臨風險。如果通脹強勁，可能還會重新點燃對滯漲的擔憂，尤其是在 8 月份的勞動市場數據大幅疲軟之後。</p>
</div><p>Last month, nonfarm payrolls rose by just 22,000, while the unemployment rate climbed to 4.3%. Adding to the concern, the Bureau of Labor Statistics on Tuesday revised down a staggering 911,000 jobs from previously reported figures between April 2024 and March 2025.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>上個月，非農就業人數僅增加 22,000，而失業率上升至 4.3%。更令人擔憂的是，美國勞工統計局週二將 2024 年 4 月至 2025 年 3 月期間的就業人數修正下調了驚人的 911,000 個。</p>
</div><ul>
<li><strong>Trump Slams Fed After Historic Jobs Revision—Is It ‘Too Late’ To Fix It?</strong></li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li><strong>特朗普抨擊美聯儲，歷史性就業修正——是否為 ‘太晚’ 修復？</strong></li>
</ul>
</div><p><em>Image created using artificial intelligence via Midjourney.</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>圖像由人工智能通過 Midjourney 生成。</em></p>
</div>

One Surprise Inflation Number Could Change The Fed's Next Move

- 美國生產者價格意外下降，增強了降息預期。  
- 預計 8 月消費者價格指數將上升至 2.9%。  
- 若通脹強勁，可能影響未來降息計劃。  

一個意外的通脹數據可能會影響美聯儲的下一步決策