<p><strong>英偉達</strong>（NVDA）在人工智能（AI）芯片市場的主導地位使其成為全球最有價值的公司，截至目前市值達到 4.32 萬億美元。重要的是，儘管收入基數龐大，英偉達的增長依然穩健。</p>
<p>考慮到未來五年預計在 AI 數據中心上支出的鉅額資金，這家芯片製造商在未來也應能保持其顯著的增長。過去三年，投資者對英偉達的熱情推動了其股價上漲，使其估值達到了高水平。</p>
<p>英偉達的股票目前交易於 47 倍的過去收益和 25 倍的銷售額。儘管英偉達的穩健增長前景很可能證明這一估值是合理的，但公司可能會受到 AI 芯片市場競爭加劇以及關税和監管障礙等地緣政治因素的制約。</p>
<p>如果真是這樣，那麼看到英偉達失去全球最有價值公司稱號也就不足為奇了，接下來將介紹的公司可能會取而代之。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MzE4OTkvYWktd3JpdHRlbi1vbi1jbG91ZC1zaWxob3V0dGUuanBnJnc9NzAw?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="700" height="376" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MzE4OTkvYWktd3JpdHRlbi1vbi1jbG91ZC1zaWxob3V0dGUuanBnJnc9NzAw"/></p>
<p>圖片來源：Getty Images</p>
<h2>巨大的積壓訂單將推動這家公司的增長</h2>
<p>與英偉達類似，<strong>微軟</strong>（MSFT 0.20%）也是 AI 領域的先驅，得益於其對 OpenAI 的早期投資。微軟迅速將 OpenAI 的知識產權（IP）整合到其各種產品中，並從過去三年的 AI 相關舉措中獲得了豐厚回報。</p>
<p>在剛剛結束的 2025 財年（截至 6 月 30 日），公司的收入增長了 15%，達到 2820 億美元，而調整後的每股收益則躍升了 16%，達到 13.64 美元。微軟在所有業務板塊都實現了令人印象深刻的增長，其中 Azure 雲業務表現最佳，上一季度收入同比增長 39%。</p>
<p>更好的是，微軟的收入管道增長速度遠快於其收入。由於對 Azure 雲和 Microsoft 365 產品的強勁需求，公司商業訂單增長了 37%，超過 1000 億美元。這些新合同使公司的商業剩餘履約義務（RPO）達到了 3680 億美元，比去年同期增長了 37%。</p>
<p>RPO 是公司將在未來某個時間履行的合同的總價值。因此，與收入相比，這一指標的更快增長是微軟未來營收加速的潛在指標。此外，考慮到雲 AI 市場的增長機會，微軟的收入管道在未來進一步改善也並不令人驚訝。</p>
<p>微軟的 Azure 及其他雲收入在上一季度增長了 39%。這個數字本可以更高，但由於公司 AI 雲服務的需求超過了供應，因此它一直在增加數據中心的容量。公司的 Azure 雲業務在 2025 財年產生了 750 億美元的收入。因此，公司的合同積壓表明這一業務在未來有很大的增長空間。</p>
<p>此外，預計到本世紀末，基於雲的 AI 服務的需求將以近 40% 的年增長率增加。這可能為微軟未來的積壓訂單和收入進一步增長鋪平道路，特別是考慮到它在建設以 AI 為首的數據中心上投入的鉅額資金。</p>
<p>更高的數據中心容量理想情況下應能讓微軟在未來五年加速其收入增長。分析師預計這家 “七巨頭” 公司的營收增長將在未來加速，並已上調了他們的預期。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/35c1f791a05d1478a34c52614ae5cc6a.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="720" height="380" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/35c1f791a05d1478a34c52614ae5cc6a.png"/></p>
<p>數據來源：YCharts。</p>
<h2>微軟真的能超越英偉達的市值嗎？</h2>
<p>上面的圖表顯示，分析師預計微軟的收入將在未來三財年中增長中位數的十幾個百分點，到 2028 財年（將於當年 6 月結束）接近 4250 億美元。然而，雲 AI 市場的長期增長機會，以及其 Microsoft 365 套件的 AI 驅動生產力工具的採用改善，可能會幫助其超越華爾街的預期。</p>
<p>但即使微軟在 2028 財年之後的兩年內維持 15% 的年增長率，其收入到本世紀末可能達到 5620 億美元。微軟目前是全球第二大公司，市值為 3.72 萬億美元，比英偉達的市值低 16%。重要的是，截至目前，微軟的市銷率僅為 13 倍。這是英偉達市銷率的一半。</p>
<p>看到微軟在五年後維持其銷售倍數（這高於美國科技行業平均銷售倍數 8.5 倍）並不令人驚訝，因為其增長率在改善。但即使在 2030 年以折扣價 10 倍銷售交易並達到 5620 億美元的收入，其市值也可能躍升至 5.6 萬億美元。</p>
<p>英偉達可能無法匹配這一市值，因為其收入增長預計將放緩，這可能促使其交易的高估值溢價減少。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/5e37e1759b842753cff2a9401a005a58.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="720" height="380" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/5e37e1759b842753cff2a9401a005a58.png"/></p>
<p>數據來源：YCharts。</p>
<p>因此，微軟在 2030 年超越英偉達成為全球最大公司的可能性不能被排除。</p>

微軟

英偉達

2 倍做多 MSFT ETF - GraniteShares

MSFO

微軟每日 1 倍做空 ETF - Direxion

微軟每日 2 倍做多 ETF - Direxion

MSFX

MSFY

<p>英偉達目前在人工智能芯片市場中領先，市值為 4.32 萬億美元，但競爭正在加劇。微軟的市值為 3.72 萬億美元，在人工智能領域迅速增長，特別是通過其 Azure 雲服務，收入增長了 39%。分析師預測，到 2030 年，微軟的收入可能達到 5620 億美元，可能會超過英偉達的市值。微軟的市銷率為 13，低於英偉達的 25，這表明它在未來幾年可能會維持增長和估值改善</p>

<p><strong>Nvidia</strong>'s (NVDA) dominance of the artificial intelligence (AI) chip market has helped it become the world's most valuable company with a market cap of $4.32 trillion as of this writing. Importantly, Nvidia's growth remains solid despite its huge revenue base.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>英偉達</strong>（NVDA）在人工智能（AI）芯片市場的主導地位使其成為全球最有價值的公司，截至目前市值達到 4.32 萬億美元。重要的是，儘管收入基數龐大，英偉達的增長依然穩健。</p>
</div><p>The chipmaker should maintain its remarkable growth in the future as well, considering the incredible amount of money that's expected to be spent on AI data centers over the next five years. Investor enthusiasm regarding Nvidia in the past three years has pushed its stock price higher and taken its valuation to premium levels.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>考慮到未來五年預計在 AI 數據中心上支出的鉅額資金，這家芯片製造商在未來也應能保持其顯著的增長。過去三年，投資者對英偉達的熱情推動了其股價上漲，使其估值達到了高水平。</p>
</div><p>Nvidia's stock now trades at 47 times trailing earnings and 25 times sales. Though there is a good chance that Nvidia's solid growth prospects justify that valuation, the company's upside could be handicapped by the growing competition in the AI chip market as well as geopolitical factors such as tariffs and regulatory hurdles.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>英偉達的股票目前交易於 47 倍的過去收益和 25 倍的銷售額。儘管英偉達的穩健增長前景很可能證明這一估值是合理的，但公司可能會受到 AI 芯片市場競爭加劇以及關税和監管障礙等地緣政治因素的制約。</p>
</div><p>If that's indeed the case, then it won't be surprising to see Nvidia relinquish its title as the world's most valuable company to the one being featured below.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如果真是這樣，那麼看到英偉達失去全球最有價值公司稱號也就不足為奇了，接下來將介紹的公司可能會取而代之。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MzE4OTkvYWktd3JpdHRlbi1vbi1jbG91ZC1zaWxob3V0dGUuanBnJnc9NzAw" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F831899%2Fai-written-on-cloud-silhoutte.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>圖片來源：Getty Images</p>
</div><h2>A massive backlog is going to supercharge this company's growth</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>巨大的積壓訂單將推動這家公司的增長</h2>
</div><p>Just like Nvidia, <strong>Microsoft</strong>(MSFT 0.20%) is a pioneer in AI thanks to its early investment in OpenAI. Microsoft moved quickly to integrate OpenAI's intellectual property (IP) into its various offerings, and it is reaping the rewards of the AI-focused moves it has made over the past three years.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>與英偉達類似，<strong>微軟</strong>（MSFT 0.20%）也是 AI 領域的先驅，得益於其對 OpenAI 的早期投資。微軟迅速將 OpenAI 的知識產權（IP）整合到其各種產品中，並從過去三年的 AI 相關舉措中獲得了豐厚回報。</p>
</div><p>The company's revenue in the recently concluded fiscal 2025 (which ended on June 30) increased by 15% to $282 billion, while adjusted earnings jumped by 16% to $13.64 per share. Microsoft witnessed impressive growth across all of its business segments, with the Azure cloud business being the top performer with a 39% year-over-year jump in revenue in the previous quarter.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在剛剛結束的 2025 財年（截至 6 月 30 日），公司的收入增長了 15%，達到 2820 億美元，而調整後的每股收益則躍升了 16%，達到 13.64 美元。微軟在所有業務板塊都實現了令人印象深刻的增長，其中 Azure 雲業務表現最佳，上一季度收入同比增長 39%。</p>
</div><p>Even better, Microsoft's revenue pipeline increased at a much faster pace than its revenue. The company's commercial bookings jumped by 37% to more than $100 billion on the back of strong demand for its Azure cloud and Microsoft 365 production. These new contracts took the company's commercial remaining performance obligations (RPO) to a whopping $368 billion, up by 37% from the year-ago period.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>更好的是，微軟的收入管道增長速度遠快於其收入。由於對 Azure 雲和 Microsoft 365 產品的強勁需求，公司商業訂單增長了 37%，超過 1000 億美元。這些新合同使公司的商業剩餘履約義務（RPO）達到了 3680 億美元，比去年同期增長了 37%。</p>
</div><p>RPO is the total value of a company's contracts that will be fulfilled at a future date. So, the faster growth in this metric as compared to the revenue is an indicator of a potential acceleration in Microsoft's top line in the future. Also, it won't be surprising to see Microsoft's revenue pipeline improving further going forward, thanks to the growth opportunity in the cloud AI market.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>RPO 是公司將在未來某個時間履行的合同的總價值。因此，與收入相比，這一指標的更快增長是微軟未來營收加速的潛在指標。此外，考慮到雲 AI 市場的增長機會，微軟的收入管道在未來進一步改善也並不令人驚訝。</p>
</div><p>Microsoft's Azure and other cloud revenue were up by 39% last quarter. That figure could have been higher, but the demand for the company's AI cloud services is exceeding supply, which is why it has been bringing online more data center capacity. The company's Azure cloud business generated $75 billion in revenue in fiscal 2025. So, the company's contracted backlog indicates that this business has a lot of room for growth in the future.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>微軟的 Azure 及其他雲收入在上一季度增長了 39%。這個數字本可以更高，但由於公司 AI 雲服務的需求超過了供應，因此它一直在增加數據中心的容量。公司的 Azure 雲業務在 2025 財年產生了 750 億美元的收入。因此，公司的合同積壓表明這一業務在未來有很大的增長空間。</p>
</div><p>Also, the demand for cloud-based AI services is expected to increase at an annual rate of almost 40% through the end of the decade. This could pave the way for further growth in Microsoft's backlog and revenue in the future, especially considering the massive amount of money it is spending to build AI-first data centers.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>此外，預計到本世紀末，基於雲的 AI 服務的需求將以近 40% 的年增長率增加。這可能為微軟未來的積壓訂單和收入進一步增長鋪平道路，特別是考慮到它在建設以 AI 為首的數據中心上投入的鉅額資金。</p>
</div><p>Higher data center capacity should ideally allow Microsoft to accelerate its revenue growth over the next five years. Analysts expect this &#34;Magnificent Seven&#34; company's top-line growth to pick up going forward and have hiked their estimates.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>更高的數據中心容量理想情況下應能讓微軟在未來五年加速其收入增長。分析師預計這家 “七巨頭” 公司的營收增長將在未來加速，並已上調了他們的預期。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/35c1f791a05d1478a34c52614ae5cc6a.png" alt="" original-src="https://media.ycharts.com/charts/35c1f791a05d1478a34c52614ae5cc6a.png"/></p>
<p>Data by YCharts.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>數據來源：YCharts。</p>
</div><h2>Can Microsoft really exceed Nvidia's market cap?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>微軟真的能超越英偉達的市值嗎？</h2>
</div><p>The chart above says analysts expect Microsoft's revenue to grow in the mid-teens over the next three fiscal years, reaching almost $425 billion in fiscal 2028 (which will end in June that year). However, the secular growth opportunities in the cloud AI market, as well as the improving adoption of its Microsoft 365 suite of AI-powered productivity tools, could help it exceed Wall Street's expectations.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>上面的圖表顯示，分析師預計微軟的收入將在未來三財年中增長中位數的十幾個百分點，到 2028 財年（將於當年 6 月結束）接近 4250 億美元。然而，雲 AI 市場的長期增長機會，以及其 Microsoft 365 套件的 AI 驅動生產力工具的採用改善，可能會幫助其超越華爾街的預期。</p>
</div><p>But even if Microsoft sustains a 15% annual growth rate in the two years beyond fiscal 2028, its top line could hit $562 billion by the end of the decade. Microsoft is currently the world's second-largest company with a market cap of $3.72 trillion, which is 16% lower than Nvidia's market cap. Importantly, Microsoft is trading at a much lower 13 times sales as of this writing. That's half of Nvidia's price-to-sales ratio.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但即使微軟在 2028 財年之後的兩年內維持 15% 的年增長率，其收入到本世紀末可能達到 5620 億美元。微軟目前是全球第二大公司，市值為 3.72 萬億美元，比英偉達的市值低 16%。重要的是，截至目前，微軟的市銷率僅為 13 倍。這是英偉達市銷率的一半。</p>
</div><p>It won't be surprising to see Microsoft sustain its sales multiple (which is a premium to the U.S. technology sector's average sales multiple of 8.5) after five years, as its growth rate improves. But even if it trades at a discounted 10 times sales in 2030 and hits $562 billion in revenue, its market cap could jump to $5.6 trillion.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>看到微軟在五年後維持其銷售倍數（這高於美國科技行業平均銷售倍數 8.5 倍）並不令人驚訝，因為其增長率在改善。但即使在 2030 年以折扣價 10 倍銷售交易並達到 5620 億美元的收入，其市值也可能躍升至 5.6 萬億美元。</p>
</div><p>Nvidia may not be able to match that market cap as its top-line growth is expected to slow down going forward, which could prompt a reduction in the big valuation premium it is trading at.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>英偉達可能無法匹配這一市值，因為其收入增長預計將放緩，這可能促使其交易的高估值溢價減少。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/5e37e1759b842753cff2a9401a005a58.png" alt="" original-src="https://media.ycharts.com/charts/5e37e1759b842753cff2a9401a005a58.png"/></p>
<p>Data by YCharts.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>數據來源：YCharts。</p>
</div><p>So, the possibility of Microsoft overtaking Nvidia as the world's largest company by 2030 cannot be ruled out.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>因此，微軟在 2030 年超越英偉達成為全球最大公司的可能性不能被排除。</p>
</div>

Prediction: This Artificial Intelligence (AI) Stock Could Surpass Nvidia's Market Cap by 2030

- Nvidia 市值達 4.32 萬億美元，主導 AI 芯片市場，增長前景樂觀。  
- Microsoft 財年收入增長 15%，預計未來將加速，市值為 3.72 萬億美元。  
- 分析師預測 Microsoft 可能在 2030 年超越 Nvidia，市值達到 5.6 萬億美元。

預測：這隻人工智能（AI）股票可能在 2030 年市值超過英偉達