<p>一些鐵路道口有柵欄，在火車接近時阻止司機通行。其他道口則有閃爍的燈光來提醒司機火車即將到來。司機可以繼續行駛，但這樣做是有風險的。</p>
<p>股市沒有類似於柵欄的東西來阻止投資者在危險來臨時虧損。然而，我認為它確實有類似於閃爍燈光的東西。它的名字是沃倫·巴菲特。</p>
<p>巴菲特研究市場已有數十年，知道何時需要謹慎。而他目前正在發出 3440 億美元的警告，華爾街（以及許多投資者）對此卻心安理得地視而不見。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MzI4MDMvYnVmZmV0dDItdG1mLmpwZyZ3PTcwMA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="700" height="466" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MzI4MDMvYnVmZmV0dDItdG1mLmpwZyZ3PTcwMA"/></p>
<p>圖片來源：The Motley Fool。</p>
<h2>錢説話的分量</h2>
<p>可以肯定的是，巴菲特並沒有在電視上預言股市的厄運。他沒有在主要報紙上撰寫社論，建議投資者要謹慎。這種做法並不是巴菲特的風格。然而，他正在做的事情——以及沒有做的事情——與 <strong>伯克希爾哈撒韋</strong>（BRK.A -0.55%）（BRK.B -0.59%）的資金，意義重大。</p>
<p>截至 2025 年第二季度末，巴菲特為伯克希爾積累的現金儲備（包括現金、現金等價物和短期美國國債投資）總額達 3440 億美元。該集團唯一一次擁有更多現金是在前一個季度，當時其現金頭寸接近 3480 億美元。</p>
<p>巴菲特沒有用伯克希爾的錢購買許多股票。他已經連續 11 個季度成為股票的淨賣家。這位傳奇投資者自去年中期以來甚至沒有授權回購伯克希爾哈撒韋的股票。</p>
<p>這對華爾街和投資者來説是一個閃爍的警告嗎？我認為是的。巴菲特似乎在用伯克希爾的錢表示，目前大多數股票的價格太高，不值得購買。</p>
<h2>心安理得地忽視奧馬哈的先知</h2>
<p>華爾街和許多投資者確實心安理得地忽視了奧馬哈的先知。有兩個因素證實了這一點。</p>
<p>首先，分析師總體上似乎對整體股票估值幾乎沒有擔憂。舉個例子，<strong>標準普爾 500 指數</strong> 中的 405 只股票的共識分析師評級為買入或更好。只有三隻股票在這個廣受關注的指數中有共識賣出評級。</p>
<p>其次，標準普爾 500 指數的交易價格達到了歷史最高點。你甚至可以説，許多投資者最近變得貪婪。這讓人想起巴菲特在 1987 年致伯克希爾哈撒韋股東的信中著名的聲明：“我們只是試圖在別人貪婪時保持恐懼，而在別人恐懼時保持貪婪。”</p>
<p>回顧巴菲特在二十多年前所説的事情也是很有啓發性的。在 2001 年為《財富》雜誌撰寫的一篇文章中，他討論了美國股市總市值與國民生產總值（GNP）的比率。這個估值比率，現在用國內生產總值（GDP）替代 GNP，被稱為巴菲特指標。巴菲特當時表示，當這個指標接近 200% 時，投資者 “是在玩火”。</p>
<p>那麼，巴菲特指標現在處於什麼水平？它超過了 213%。</p>
<h2>投資者應該怎麼做？</h2>
<p>也許投資者不應該關注巴菲特。也許這位傳奇投資者應該大舉購買股票，而不是建立鉅額現金頭寸。他會是第一個承認自己過去曾錯的人。</p>
<p>然而，我認為忽視巴菲特的警告並不是最佳選擇。相反，遵循這位億萬富翁的一般方法似乎是明智的做法，因為股市估值處於歷史高位。</p>
<p>重要的是，巴菲特並沒有恐慌性拋售。伯克希爾仍然持有約 3000 億美元的股票。這突顯了巴菲特對長期的關注，我認為所有投資者都應該具備這種觀點。他甚至在購買一些符合他嚴格選擇標準的股票（儘管不多）。正如我們已經看到的，巴菲特還建立了一個龐大的現金頭寸，他（或他的繼任者）可以在股票估值更具吸引力時加以利用。</p>
<p>這種專注於長期、對購買哪些股票高度挑剔以及在股票估值過高時保持現金的策略，是巴菲特幾十年來一直採用的。這是一種極為成功的方法。</p>
<p>忽視這位傳奇投資者的警告，可能會對你的投資組合造成潛在的危險。</p>

伯克希爾哈撒韋-B

伯克希爾哈撒韋-A

南方兩倍做多伯克希爾

<p>沃倫·巴菲特向華爾街和投資者發出了 3440 億美元的警告，指出許多股票被高估。儘管持有大量現金，巴菲特在過去 11 個季度裏一直是股票的淨賣家，自去年以來沒有授權回購。分析師們依然樂觀，大多數標準普爾 500 指數股票被評為買入，而巴菲特指標顯示股票市場市值已達到 GDP 的 213%。投資者被建議關注巴菲特的警告，專注於長期策略，而不是忽視他的警示</p>

<p>Some railroad crossings have gates that block drivers from going through when a train is approaching. Others have flashing lights to alert drivers that a train is coming. They could drive on, but doing so is risky.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>一些鐵路道口有柵欄，在火車接近時阻止司機通行。其他道口則有閃爍的燈光來提醒司機火車即將到來。司機可以繼續行駛，但這樣做是有風險的。</p>
</div><p>The stock market doesn't have the equivalent of a gate that prevents investors from losing money when danger lies ahead. However, I think it does have something similar to a flashing light. His name is Warren Buffett.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>股市沒有類似於柵欄的東西來阻止投資者在危險來臨時虧損。然而，我認為它確實有類似於閃爍燈光的東西。它的名字是沃倫·巴菲特。</p>
</div><p>Buffett has studied the market for decades and knows when caution is warranted. And he's currently flashing a $344 billion warning that Wall Street (and many investors) are blissfully ignoring.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>巴菲特研究市場已有數十年，知道何時需要謹慎。而他目前正在發出 3440 億美元的警告，華爾街（以及許多投資者）對此卻心安理得地視而不見。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MzI4MDMvYnVmZmV0dDItdG1mLmpwZyZ3PTcwMA" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F832803%2Fbuffett2-tmf.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: The Motley Fool.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>圖片來源：The Motley Fool。</p>
</div><h2>Money speaks volumes</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>錢説話的分量</h2>
</div><p>To be sure, Buffett isn't appearing on TV prophesying stock market doom and gloom. He hasn't written op-ed pieces in major newspapers advising investors to exercise caution. Such efforts aren't Buffett's style. However, what he is doing -- and not doing -- with <strong>Berkshire Hathaway</strong>'s (BRK.A -0.55%)(BRK.B -0.59%) money speaks volumes.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>可以肯定的是，巴菲特並沒有在電視上預言股市的厄運。他沒有在主要報紙上撰寫社論，建議投資者要謹慎。這種做法並不是巴菲特的風格。然而，他正在做的事情——以及沒有做的事情——與 <strong>伯克希爾哈撒韋</strong>（BRK.A -0.55%）（BRK.B -0.59%）的資金，意義重大。</p>
</div><p>Buffett has amassed a cash stockpile (including cash, cash equivalents, and short-term investments in U.S. Treasuries) for Berkshire that totaled $344 billion at the end of the second quarter of 2025. The only time the conglomerate has had more cash was in the previous quarter, when its cash position stood at nearly $348 billion.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>截至 2025 年第二季度末，巴菲特為伯克希爾積累的現金儲備（包括現金、現金等價物和短期美國國債投資）總額達 3440 億美元。該集團唯一一次擁有更多現金是在前一個季度，當時其現金頭寸接近 3480 億美元。</p>
</div><p>What Buffett isn't doing with Berkshire's money is buying many stocks. He has been a net seller of stocks for 11 consecutive quarters. The legendary investor hasn't even authorized stock buybacks of Berkshire Hathaway shares since the middle of last year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>巴菲特沒有用伯克希爾的錢購買許多股票。他已經連續 11 個季度成為股票的淨賣家。這位傳奇投資者自去年中期以來甚至沒有授權回購伯克希爾哈撒韋的股票。</p>
</div><p>Is this a flashing warning for Wall Street and investors? I think so. Buffett appears to be saying (with Berkshire's money) that most stocks are too expensive to buy right now.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這對華爾街和投資者來説是一個閃爍的警告嗎？我認為是的。巴菲特似乎在用伯克希爾的錢表示，目前大多數股票的價格太高，不值得購買。</p>
</div><h2>Blissfully ignoring the Oracle of Omaha</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>心安理得地忽視奧馬哈的先知</h2>
</div><p>Wall Street and many investors are indeed blissfully ignoring the Oracle of Omaha. Two factors confirm this.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>華爾街和許多投資者確實心安理得地忽視了奧馬哈的先知。有兩個因素證實了這一點。</p>
</div><p>First, analysts in aggregate seem to have few concerns about overall stock valuations. As a case in point, 405 stocks in the <strong>S&amp;P 500</strong> have consensus analyst ratings of buy or better. Only three stocks in the widely followed index have consensus sell ratings.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>首先，分析師總體上似乎對整體股票估值幾乎沒有擔憂。舉個例子，<strong>標準普爾 500 指數</strong> 中的 405 只股票的共識分析師評級為買入或更好。只有三隻股票在這個廣受關注的指數中有共識賣出評級。</p>
</div><p>Second, the S&amp;P 500 is trading at an all-time high. You might even say that many investors are being greedy these days. That brings to mind Buffett's famous statement in his 1987 letter to Berkshire Hathaway shareholders: &#34;We simply attempt to be fearful when others are greedy and to be greedy only when others are fearful.&#34;</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>其次，標準普爾 500 指數的交易價格達到了歷史最高點。你甚至可以説，許多投資者最近變得貪婪。這讓人想起巴菲特在 1987 年致伯克希爾哈撒韋股東的信中著名的聲明：“我們只是試圖在別人貪婪時保持恐懼，而在別人恐懼時保持貪婪。”</p>
</div><p>It's also instructive to look back at something Buffett said more than two decades ago. In an article for <em>Fortune</em> magazine in 2001, he discussed the ratio of total U.S. stock market capitalization to gross national product (GNP). This valuation ratio, with gross domestic product (GDP) replacing GNP, is now known as the Buffett indicator. Buffett stated then that when this indicator approaches 200%, investors &#34;are playing with fire.&#34;</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>回顧巴菲特在二十多年前所説的事情也是很有啓發性的。在 2001 年為《財富》雜誌撰寫的一篇文章中，他討論了美國股市總市值與國民生產總值（GNP）的比率。這個估值比率，現在用國內生產總值（GDP）替代 GNP，被稱為巴菲特指標。巴菲特當時表示，當這個指標接近 200% 時，投資者 “是在玩火”。</p>
</div><p>Where does the Buffett indicator stand today? It's over 213%.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>那麼，巴菲特指標現在處於什麼水平？它超過了 213%。</p>
</div><h2>What should investors do?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>投資者應該怎麼做？</h2>
</div><p>Maybe investors shouldn't pay attention to Buffett. Perhaps the legendary investor should be buying stocks hand over fist rather than building a huge cash position. He would be the first to admit that he has been wrong in the past.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>也許投資者不應該關注巴菲特。也許這位傳奇投資者應該大舉購買股票，而不是建立鉅額現金頭寸。他會是第一個承認自己過去曾錯的人。</p>
</div><p>However, I don't think ignoring Buffett's warning is the best move. Instead, following the multibillionaire's general approach seems to be a prudent course of action, given that stock market valuations are at historically high levels.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，我認為忽視巴菲特的警告並不是最佳選擇。相反，遵循這位億萬富翁的一般方法似乎是明智的做法，因為股市估值處於歷史高位。</p>
</div><p>Importantly, Buffett isn't panic-selling. Berkshire still owns around $300 billion worth of stocks. This underscores Buffett's underlying focus on the long term, a view that I think all investors should have. He is even buying some stocks (albeit not many) that meet his stringent selection criteria. As we've already seen, Buffett has also built a large cash position that he (or his successor) can put to use when stock valuations are more attractive.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>重要的是，巴菲特並沒有恐慌性拋售。伯克希爾仍然持有約 3000 億美元的股票。這突顯了巴菲特對長期的關注，我認為所有投資者都應該具備這種觀點。他甚至在購買一些符合他嚴格選擇標準的股票（儘管不多）。正如我們已經看到的，巴菲特還建立了一個龐大的現金頭寸，他（或他的繼任者）可以在股票估值更具吸引力時加以利用。</p>
</div><p>This strategy of focusing on the long term, being highly selective about which stocks to buy, and staying in cash when stock valuations are frothy is one that Buffett has employed for decades, by the way. It's an approach that has been enormously successful.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這種專注於長期、對購買哪些股票高度挑剔以及在股票估值過高時保持現金的策略，是巴菲特幾十年來一直採用的。這是一種極為成功的方法。</p>
</div><p>Ignore the legendary investor's warning at your portfolio's potential peril.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>忽視這位傳奇投資者的警告，可能會對你的投資組合造成潛在的危險。</p>
</div>

Warren Buffett's $344 Billion Warning That Wall Street (and Many Investors) Are Blissfully Ignoring

- 巴菲特警告稱，當前股票估值過高，現金儲備達 3440 億美元。  
- 他已連續 11 個季度淨賣出股票，未進行股票回購。  
- 投資者應謹慎，遵循巴菲特的長期投資策略。  

沃倫·巴菲特發出的 3440 億美元警告，華爾街和許多投資者卻在無憂無慮地忽視