<p><strong>Opendoor Technologies</strong>（OPEN 4.30%）在過去三個月中飆升，最初基於其可能成為下一個 <strong>Carvana</strong> 的論點而引發的迷因股反彈，現在可能正在轉變為一個真正的轉機。</p>
<p>Opendoor 剛剛任命了一位新首席執行官，聘請 <strong>Shopify</strong> 首席運營官 Kaz Nejatian 擔任最高職位，兩位聯合創始人也迴歸董事會，其中一位 Keith Rabois 成為新任董事長。</p>
<p>但推動 Opendoor 上漲的不僅僅是迷因投資者和新領導層。投資者還寄希望於美聯儲降息的幫助。8 月 22 日，當美聯儲主席傑羅姆·鮑威爾在傑克遜霍爾的講話中暗示降息時機已到，股價飆升，市場普遍預計美聯儲將在週三將聯邦基金利率下調 25 個基點，這是今年的首次降息。抵押貸款利率已經在預期基準借貸利率降低的情況下下滑，目前接近一年來的低點。</p>
<p>作為一家以翻轉房屋為業務的公司，Opendoor 本質上是以高於購買價的價格轉售房屋並收取服務費，較低的抵押貸款利率似乎對公司是個利好。</p>
<p>然而，這可能並不是投資者一直在等待的盈利解決方案。讓我們仔細看看原因。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MzM2ODQvZmVkZXJhbC1yZXNlcnZlLmpwZyZ3PTcwMA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MzM2ODQvZmVkZXJhbC1yZXNlcnZlLmpwZyZ3PTcwMA"/></p>
<p>圖片來源：Getty Images。</p>
<h2>好消息</h2>
<p>較低的抵押貸款利率可能會給房地產市場帶來急需的活動刺激。利率仍然徘徊在 6% 以上，是疫情期間的兩倍多。</p>
<p>抵押貸款利率的飆升造成了 “鎖定效應”，這意味着在疫情期間購買或再融資房屋的美國人不願意放棄那些利率更高的抵押貸款，即使他們想要搬家。</p>
<p>因此，現有房屋銷售在過去幾年一直處於低迷狀態。從下面的圖表可以看出，現有房屋銷售在過去三年中一直保持在每年約 400 萬套，較疫情前水平下降約 30%。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/33e284d8b2c9ebd8321de57a99ea15c6.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/33e284d8b2c9ebd8321de57a99ea15c6.png"/></p>
<p>美國現有房屋銷售數據來源於 YCharts</p>
<p>如果抵押貸款利率大幅下降，更多潛在的購房者和賣家應該會進入市場，這將使 Opendoor 受益，房屋庫存也可能會增加。更多的庫存為公司提供了更多的購房機會和潛在交易，從而推動其業務。更活躍的房地產市場也可能減少 Opendoor 持有房屋的時間，從而為公司節省資金。</p>
<p>此外，Opendoor 還受益於較低的利率，因為它利用債務市場來資助其購房。它在第二季度結束時擁有 12 億美元的資產支持債務和 15 億美元的房地產庫存。</p>
<h2>可能無關緊要的原因</h2>
<p>可以説，影響 Opendoor 的最重要的房地產市場因素不是現有房屋交易的數量，而是房價，因為公司顯然受益於房價上漲。</p>
<p>然而，儘管房地產市場活動停滯不前，房價仍然保持在歷史高位。根據標準普爾 CoreLogic Case-Shiller 美國國家房價指數，截至 6 月，該指數為 331.5，比疫情開始時上漲了約 50%。根據全國房地產經紀人協會的數據，2025 年 7 月的房屋中位銷售價格為 422,400 美元。</p>
<p>房價可能會繼續上漲，但由於美國存在嚴重的住房短缺，估計數量在數百萬之上，房價上漲的空間可能不大，多個指標指向住房可負擔性危機。根據一些測量，房價與收入的比率從未如此之高。</p>
<p>當然，較低的抵押貸款利率將降低月供，鼓勵買家進入市場，但 “鎖定效應” 的解除也可能增加供應，給價格施加壓力。</p>
<p>此外，疲軟的勞動力市場可能會抑制購房需求。</p>
<h2>對 Opendoor 的影響</h2>
<p>無論房地產市場發生什麼，結果都需要時間來顯現，尤其是傑羅姆·鮑威爾已經表明採取謹慎的態度，擔心通脹仍高於美聯儲 2% 的目標。</p>
<p>儘管如此，任何改善宏觀環境的跡象都可能對 Opendoor 的股票產生利好。該業務能否利用更活躍的房地產市場並實現盈利仍有待觀察。隨着投資者調整對 Opendoor 的預期，他們應當記住，房價已經顯得有些高企，這意味着 Opendoor 的上行空間可能有限。</p>

OPEN

<p>Opendoor Technologies 的股票大幅上漲，主要受到新領導層和潛在的美聯儲降息的推動。雖然較低的抵押貸款利率可能刺激房地產市場活動，從而有利於 Opendoor 的房屋翻轉業務，但仍面臨挑戰。房價處於歷史高位，住房可負擔性危機依然存在。公司的盈利能力取決於如何應對這些市場動態，因為美聯儲在持續的通脹擔憂中保持謹慎態度。投資者應意識到，儘管存在機會，但由於房價高企，Opendoor 的上行空間可能有限</p>

<p><strong>Opendoor Technologies</strong>(OPEN 4.30%) has skyrocketed over the last three months as what started out as a meme-stock rally based on the argument that it could be the next <strong>Carvana</strong> could now be turning into a legitimate turnaround.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>Opendoor Technologies</strong>（OPEN 4.30%）在過去三個月中飆升，最初基於其可能成為下一個 <strong>Carvana</strong> 的論點而引發的迷因股反彈，現在可能正在轉變為一個真正的轉機。</p>
</div><p>Opendoor just brought in a new CEO, tapping <strong>Shopify</strong> COO Kaz Nejatian for the top spot, and two of its co-founders have returned to the board with one of them, Keith Rabois, becoming the new chair.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Opendoor 剛剛任命了一位新首席執行官，聘請 <strong>Shopify</strong> 首席運營官 Kaz Nejatian 擔任最高職位，兩位聯合創始人也迴歸董事會，其中一位 Keith Rabois 成為新任董事長。</p>
</div><p>But there's more than just meme investors and new leadership fueling the Opendoor run. Investors are also banking on help from Fed interest rate cuts. The stock soared on Aug. 22 when Fed chair Jerome Powell hinted that the time had arrived for rate cuts at his Jackson Hole address, and the central bank is widely expected to cut the Fed funds rate by 25 basis points on Wednesday, which would be its first cut this year. Mortgage rates are already falling in anticipation of a lower benchmark borrowing rate, and are now around 1-year lows.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但推動 Opendoor 上漲的不僅僅是迷因投資者和新領導層。投資者還寄希望於美聯儲降息的幫助。8 月 22 日，當美聯儲主席傑羅姆·鮑威爾在傑克遜霍爾的講話中暗示降息時機已到，股價飆升，市場普遍預計美聯儲將在週三將聯邦基金利率下調 25 個基點，這是今年的首次降息。抵押貸款利率已經在預期基準借貸利率降低的情況下下滑，目前接近一年來的低點。</p>
</div><p>As a company whose business is built on flipping homes, essentially reselling them for more than they purchased them for and collecting service fees in the process, lower mortgage rates would seem to be a positive for the company.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>作為一家以翻轉房屋為業務的公司，Opendoor 本質上是以高於購買價的價格轉售房屋並收取服務費，較低的抵押貸款利率似乎對公司是個利好。</p>
</div><p>However, it might not be the solution to profitability that investors have been waiting for. Let's take a closer look to see why.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，這可能並不是投資者一直在等待的盈利解決方案。讓我們仔細看看原因。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MzM2ODQvZmVkZXJhbC1yZXNlcnZlLmpwZyZ3PTcwMA" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F833684%2Ffederal-reserve.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>圖片來源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><h2>The good news</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>好消息</h2>
</div><p>Lower mortgage rates are likely to give the housing market a much-needed jolt in activity. Rates are still hovering above 6%, more than double what they were during much of the pandemic.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>較低的抵押貸款利率可能會給房地產市場帶來急需的活動刺激。利率仍然徘徊在 6% 以上，是疫情期間的兩倍多。</p>
</div><p>The spike in mortgage rates has created a &#34;lock-in effect,&#34; meaning Americans who bought or refinanced homes during the pandemic are reluctant to give up those mortgages when rates are so much higher, even if they'd like to move.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>抵押貸款利率的飆升造成了 “鎖定效應”，這意味着在疫情期間購買或再融資房屋的美國人不願意放棄那些利率更高的抵押貸款，即使他們想要搬家。</p>
</div><p>As a result, existing home sales have been in the dumps for years now. As you can see from the chart below, existing home sales have been trending at around 4 million annually for the last three years, down about 30% from pre-pandemic levels.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>因此，現有房屋銷售在過去幾年一直處於低迷狀態。從下面的圖表可以看出，現有房屋銷售在過去三年中一直保持在每年約 400 萬套，較疫情前水平下降約 30%。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/33e284d8b2c9ebd8321de57a99ea15c6.png" alt="" original-src="https://media.ycharts.com/charts/33e284d8b2c9ebd8321de57a99ea15c6.png"/></p>
<p>US Existing Home Sales data by YCharts</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美國現有房屋銷售數據來源於 YCharts</p>
</div><p>If mortgage rates fall substantially, more prospective homebuyers and sellers should enter the market, benefiting Opendoor, and housing inventory is likely to climb. More inventory gives the company more opportunities to buy homes and more potential transactions to drive its business. A more active housing market could also decrease the amount of time that Opendoor keeps homes on its books, which would save the company money.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如果抵押貸款利率大幅下降，更多潛在的購房者和賣家應該會進入市場，這將使 Opendoor 受益，房屋庫存也可能會增加。更多的庫存為公司提供了更多的購房機會和潛在交易，從而推動其業務。更活躍的房地產市場也可能減少 Opendoor 持有房屋的時間，從而為公司節省資金。</p>
</div><p>Additionally, Opendoor benefits from lower interest rates because it uses the debt market to fund its home purchases. It finished the second quarter with $1.2 billion in asset-backed debt and $1.5 billion in real estate inventory.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>此外，Opendoor 還受益於較低的利率，因為它利用債務市場來資助其購房。它在第二季度結束時擁有 12 億美元的資產支持債務和 15 億美元的房地產庫存。</p>
</div><h2>Why it might not matter</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>可能無關緊要的原因</h2>
</div><p>Arguably, the most important housing market factor affecting Opendoor isn't the number of existing home transactions, but home prices, as the company clearly benefits from prices rising.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>可以説，影響 Opendoor 的最重要的房地產市場因素不是現有房屋交易的數量，而是房價，因為公司顯然受益於房價上漲。</p>
</div><p>However, while housing market activity has been stalled, prices have remained at all-time highs. After a brief pullback in 2022, the S&amp;P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index is now at 331.5 as of June, which is up about 50% from when the pandemic started. The median sales price for a home in July 2025 was $422,400, according to the National Association of Realtors.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，儘管房地產市場活動停滯不前，房價仍然保持在歷史高位。根據標準普爾 CoreLogic Case-Shiller 美國國家房價指數，截至 6 月，該指數為 331.5，比疫情開始時上漲了約 50%。根據全國房地產經紀人協會的數據，2025 年 7 月的房屋中位銷售價格為 422,400 美元。</p>
</div><p>Home prices could keep moving higher, but there may not be much room to go up as there's a significant housing shortage in the U.S., estimated to be in the millions, and several metrics point to a housing affordability crisis. According to some measurements, home prices have never been higher compared to income.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>房價可能會繼續上漲，但由於美國存在嚴重的住房短缺，估計數量在數百萬之上，房價上漲的空間可能不大，多個指標指向住房可負擔性危機。根據一些測量，房價與收入的比率從未如此之高。</p>
</div><p>Of course, lower mortgage rates will lower monthly payments, encouraging buyers to come into the market, but an unwinding of the &#34;lock-in effect&#34; could also raise supply, pressuring prices.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>當然，較低的抵押貸款利率將降低月供，鼓勵買家進入市場，但 “鎖定效應” 的解除也可能增加供應，給價格施加壓力。</p>
</div><p>Additionally, the weakening labor market could tamp down demand for home purchases.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>此外，疲軟的勞動力市場可能會抑制購房需求。</p>
</div><h2>What it means for Opendoor</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>對 Opendoor 的影響</h2>
</div><p>Whatever happens in the housing market, it will take time to play out, especially as Jerome Powell has signaled a cautious approach, wary that inflation is still above the Fed's target of 2%.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>無論房地產市場發生什麼，結果都需要時間來顯現，尤其是傑羅姆·鮑威爾已經表明採取謹慎的態度，擔心通脹仍高於美聯儲 2% 的目標。</p>
</div><p>Still, any sign of an improving macro climate is likely to be a boon to Opendoor stock. Whether the business can take advantage of a more active housing market and turn a profit remains to be seen. As investors adjust their expectations for Opendoor, they should keep in mind that housing prices already look stretched, meaning the upside for Opendoor could be limited.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>儘管如此，任何改善宏觀環境的跡象都可能對 Opendoor 的股票產生利好。該業務能否利用更活躍的房地產市場並實現盈利仍有待觀察。隨着投資者調整對 Opendoor 的預期，他們應當記住，房價已經顯得有些高企，這意味着 Opendoor 的上行空間可能有限。</p>
</div>

Will Opendoor Stock Get Another Win From the Fed on Wednesday? It's Not That Simple

- Opendoor Technologies 股票在過去三個月大幅上漲，受益於新 CEO 和利率預期。  
- 低抵押貸款利率可能刺激住房市場活動，但房價仍處於歷史高位。  
- 投資者需關注市場變化，Opendoor 盈利能力仍存不確定性。  

Opendoor 股票能否在週三從美聯儲獲得另一場勝利？事情並不那麼簡單