<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://invezz.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/05/Gold-bars-in-a-reserve.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://invezz.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/05/Gold-bars-in-a-reserve.png"/></p>
<p>美國聯邦儲備委員會近期對降息預期的上升顯著推動了黃金價格的上漲。</p>
<p>這導致德國商業銀行（Commerzbank AG）上調了對 2025 年和 2026 年黃金價格的預測。</p>
<p>市場確信美國聯邦儲備委員會將在本週的會議上降息。</p>
<p>本月初，另一組疲軟的美國勞動力市場數據提高了 50 個基點大幅降息的希望。</p>
<h2>黃金價格預測</h2>
<p>德國商業銀行的商品分析師卡斯滕·弗裏茨（Carsten Fritsch）週二表示：“我們預計美聯儲將在年底前降息 75 個基點，明年再降 125 個基點，降至 2.5%。”</p>
<blockquote>
<p>這略高於美聯儲基金期貨目前的定價。</p>
</blockquote>
<p>德國商業銀行現在預計到年底黃金價格將平均達到每盎司 3600 美元。</p>
<p>它還預計到 2026 年底黃金價格將平均達到每盎司 3800 美元。</p>
<p>這比德國商業銀行之前的預測高出每盎司 200 美元。</p>
<p>黃金價格在九月初繼續上漲，幾乎每天都創下新高，包括週一和週二，超過了四月份創下的前紀錄。</p>
<p>COMEX 上 12 月黃金合約的當前紀錄高點為每盎司 3735 美元，週二觸及。</p>
<p>自年初以來，黃金價格已上漲超過 40%，這一趨勢在多種貨幣中均有體現，而不僅僅是對美元。</p>
<p>弗裏茨表示：</p>
<blockquote>
<p>最近黃金在歐元計價中也達到了新的歷史高點，超過 3100 歐元每盎司。其他貨幣如英鎊、瑞士法郎和日元的黃金價格也是如此。</p>
</blockquote>
<h2>為什麼黃金價格持續上漲</h2>
<p>黃金價格的飆升可以歸因於多個因素，主要是年初由於美國總統唐納德·特朗普的關税政策引發的不確定性。</p>
<p>美國對黃金進口的關税前景導致黃金交付到美國顯著增加，導致其他交易中心的貴金屬短缺。</p>
<p>弗裏茨表示，最近價格上漲的觸發因素是特朗普對美國聯邦儲備委員會獨立性的前所未有的攻擊。</p>
<p>特朗普頻繁且公開地批評美聯儲主席鮑威爾未能滿足他對降息的要求。</p>
<p>這一持續的爭執最近升級，特朗普試圖解僱一位美聯儲理事，該決定目前正在等待法院裁決。</p>
<p>與此同時，副總統 JD·範斯（JD Vance）提倡選舉官員在貨幣政策決策中更大程度的參與。</p>
<h2>黃金的價值</h2>
<p>弗裏茨指出：“政府影響的貨幣政策將增加長期通脹風險，正如今天的土耳其或上世紀 70 年代的美國所示。”</p>
<blockquote>
<p>因此，美元的聲譽在最近幾個月顯著受到削弱。</p>
</blockquote>
<p>投資者越來越多地轉向黃金作為避風港和價值儲存，顯著的資金流入黃金 ETF 便是明證。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://invezz.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/image-825.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://invezz.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/image-825.png"/></p>
<p>來源：德國商業銀行研究</p>
<p>根據世界黃金協會的數據，自年初以來，黃金持有量已增加 470 噸，8 月份達到了三年來的最高水平。</p>
<p>在今年前八個月中，七個月記錄了資金流入，只有一個月出現了小幅流出。</p>
<p>自八月底以來，彭博社追蹤的黃金 ETF 的資金流入顯著增加。</p>
<h2>白銀將上漲</h2>
<p>預計白銀將跟隨黃金的近期上漲趨勢，也將經歷積極的走勢。</p>
<p>弗裏茨表示：“這可能也與黃金價格已經很高，令一些投資者望而卻步，因此他們在尋找更便宜的替代品有關。”</p>
<blockquote>
<p>這可以從白銀 ETF 的強勁資金流入中看出。</p>
</blockquote>
<p>因此，我們預計到明年年底白銀價格將強勁上漲，超出之前的預期。</p>
<p>德國商業銀行現在預計到今年年底白銀價格將達到每盎司 41 美元，到 2026 年底將達到每盎司 43 美元。</p>
<p>COMEX 上的白銀價格最近突破了每盎司 43 美元，這是自 2011 年以來未見的水平。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://invezz.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/image-826.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://invezz.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/image-826.png"/></p>
<p>來源：德國商業銀行研究</p>
<p>在週五的下跌後，黃金/白銀比率徘徊在 86 左右，接近九月初創下的年度低點。</p>
<p>自年初以來，白銀價格上漲近 50%，甚至超過了黃金的表現。</p>
<p>本文首發於 Invezz，標題為《德國商業銀行上調黃金預測，因美聯儲降息預期；白銀將繼續上漲》。</p>

<p>德國商業銀行（Commerzbank AG）因對美國聯邦儲備委員會降息預期的增加而上調了黃金價格預測。該銀行預計到 2025 年底，黃金價格將平均達到每盎司 3,600 美元，到 2026 年將達到每盎司 3,800 美元，比之前的估計增加了 200 美元。今年黃金價格已上漲超過 40%，在多種貨幣中創下歷史新高。白銀也預計將上漲，預計到 2025 年底每盎司將達到 41 美元，到 2026 年將達到 43 美元，這主要是由於投資者對更便宜的黃金替代品的興趣</p>

<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://invezz.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/05/Gold-bars-in-a-reserve.png" alt="" original-src="https://invezz.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/05/Gold-bars-in-a-reserve.png"/></p>
<p>The recent rise in expectations for interest rate cuts by the US Federal Reserve has provided a significant boost to gold prices.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美國聯邦儲備委員會近期對降息預期的上升顯著推動了黃金價格的上漲。</p>
</div><p>This has led Commerzbank AG to revise upwards its forecast for gold prices in 2025 and 2026.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這導致德國商業銀行（Commerzbank AG）上調了對 2025 年和 2026 年黃金價格的預測。</p>
</div><p>The market is certain that the US Fed will cut interest rates at its meeting this week.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>市場確信美國聯邦儲備委員會將在本週的會議上降息。</p>
</div><p>At the beginning of the month, another weak set of US labour market data raised hope of a larger cut of 50 basis points.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>本月初，另一組疲軟的美國勞動力市場數據提高了 50 個基點大幅降息的希望。</p>
</div><h2>Gold price forecasts</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>黃金價格預測</h2>
</div><p>“We expect the Fed to cut interest rates by 75 basis points by the end of the year and by a further 125 basis points next year to 2.5%,” Carsten Fritsch, commodity analyst at Commerzbank AG, said on Tuesday.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>德國商業銀行的商品分析師卡斯滕·弗裏茨（Carsten Fritsch）週二表示：“我們預計美聯儲將在年底前降息 75 個基點，明年再降 125 個基點，降至 2.5%。”</p>
</div><blockquote>
<p>This is slightly more than the Fed Funds Futures are currently pricing in.</p>
</blockquote>
<div class="lb-trans"><blockquote>
<p>這略高於美聯儲基金期貨目前的定價。</p>
</blockquote>
</div><p>The German bank now sees gold prices averaging $3,600 per ounce by the end of the year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>德國商業銀行現在預計到年底黃金價格將平均達到每盎司 3600 美元。</p>
</div><p>It also sees gold averaging $3,800 per ounce by the end of 2026.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>它還預計到 2026 年底黃金價格將平均達到每盎司 3800 美元。</p>
</div><p>This is $200 per ounce higher than Commerzbank’s previous forecast.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這比德國商業銀行之前的預測高出每盎司 200 美元。</p>
</div><p>Gold prices continued their upward trend in early September, consistently reaching new record highs almost daily, including Monday and Tuesday, after exceeding the previous record set in April.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>黃金價格在九月初繼續上漲，幾乎每天都創下新高，包括週一和週二，超過了四月份創下的前紀錄。</p>
</div><p>The current record high for the December gold contract on COMEX is $3,735 per ounce, touched on Tuesday.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>COMEX 上 12 月黃金合約的當前紀錄高點為每盎司 3735 美元，週二觸及。</p>
</div><p>Gold prices have surged over 40% since the start of the year, a trend observed across various currencies, not solely against the US dollar.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>自年初以來，黃金價格已上漲超過 40%，這一趨勢在多種貨幣中均有體現，而不僅僅是對美元。</p>
</div><p>Fritsch said:</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>弗裏茨表示：</p>
</div><blockquote>
<p>Gold also recently reached a new all-time high in euro terms, at more than EUR 3,100 per troy ounce. The same applies to the price of gold in other currencies such as the British pound, the Swiss franc, and the Japanese yen.</p>
</blockquote>
<div class="lb-trans"><blockquote>
<p>最近黃金在歐元計價中也達到了新的歷史高點，超過 3100 歐元每盎司。其他貨幣如英鎊、瑞士法郎和日元的黃金價格也是如此。</p>
</blockquote>
</div><h2>Why gold price is on a golden run</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>為什麼黃金價格持續上漲</h2>
</div><p>The gold price surge can be attributed to several factors, primarily the uncertainty early in the year stemming from the US President Donald Trump’s tariff policy.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>黃金價格的飆升可以歸因於多個因素，主要是年初由於美國總統唐納德·特朗普的關税政策引發的不確定性。</p>
</div><p>The prospect of a US tariff on gold imports led to a significant increase in gold deliveries to the US, resulting in a scarcity of the precious metal in other trading centres.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美國對黃金進口的關税前景導致黃金交付到美國顯著增加，導致其他交易中心的貴金屬短缺。</p>
</div><p>The trigger for the recent price increase was US President Trump’s unprecedented attack on the independence of the US Federal Reserve, according to Fritsch.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>弗裏茨表示，最近價格上漲的觸發因素是特朗普對美國聯邦儲備委員會獨立性的前所未有的攻擊。</p>
</div><p>Trump has frequently and publicly criticised Fed Chairman Powell for not acceding to his demands for lower interest rates.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>特朗普頻繁且公開地批評美聯儲主席鮑威爾未能滿足他對降息的要求。</p>
</div><p>This ongoing dispute recently escalated when Trump moved to dismiss a Fed governor, a decision now awaiting a court ruling.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這一持續的爭執最近升級，特朗普試圖解僱一位美聯儲理事，該決定目前正在等待法院裁決。</p>
</div><p>Concurrently, Vice President JD Vance has advocated for greater involvement of elected officials in monetary policy decisions.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>與此同時，副總統 JD·範斯（JD Vance）提倡選舉官員在貨幣政策決策中更大程度的參與。</p>
</div><h2>Gold’s value</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>黃金的價值</h2>
</div><p>“A monetary policy influenced by the government would increase longer-term inflation risks, as a look at Turkey today or back at the US in the 1970s shows,” Fritsch noted.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>弗裏茨指出：“政府影響的貨幣政策將增加長期通脹風險，正如今天的土耳其或上世紀 70 年代的美國所示。”</p>
</div><blockquote>
<p>As a result, the reputation of the US dollar has been visibly undermined in recent months.</p>
</blockquote>
<div class="lb-trans"><blockquote>
<p>因此，美元的聲譽在最近幾個月顯著受到削弱。</p>
</blockquote>
</div><p>Investors are increasingly turning to gold as a safe haven and store of value, as evidenced by significant inflows into gold ETFs.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>投資者越來越多地轉向黃金作為避風港和價值儲存，顯著的資金流入黃金 ETF 便是明證。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://invezz.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/image-825.png" alt="" original-src="https://invezz.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/image-825.png"/></p>
<p>Source: Commerzbank Research</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>來源：德國商業銀行研究</p>
</div><p>Gold holdings have surged by 470 tons since the start of the year, reaching a three-year high in August, according to World Gold Council data.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>根據世界黃金協會的數據，自年初以來，黃金持有量已增加 470 噸，8 月份達到了三年來的最高水平。</p>
</div><p>Over the first eight months of the year, inflows were recorded in seven, with only one month experiencing minor outflows.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在今年前八個月中，七個月記錄了資金流入，只有一個月出現了小幅流出。</p>
</div><p>Gold ETFs tracked by Bloomberg have experienced a noticeable increase in inflows since late August.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>自八月底以來，彭博社追蹤的黃金 ETF 的資金流入顯著增加。</p>
</div><h2>Silver to rise</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>白銀將上漲</h2>
</div><p>Silver is expected to follow gold’s recent upward trajectory and also experience a positive trend.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>預計白銀將跟隨黃金的近期上漲趨勢，也將經歷積極的走勢。</p>
</div><p>“This is probably also due to the fact that the already high gold price is deterring some investors, who are therefore looking for cheaper alternatives,” Fritsch said.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>弗裏茨表示：“這可能也與黃金價格已經很高，令一些投資者望而卻步，因此他們在尋找更便宜的替代品有關。”</p>
</div><blockquote>
<p>This can be seen in the strong inflows into silver ETFs.</p>
</blockquote>
<div class="lb-trans"><blockquote>
<p>這可以從白銀 ETF 的強勁資金流入中看出。</p>
</blockquote>
</div><p>We therefore expect the price of silver to rise strongly than previously assumed by the end of next year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>因此，我們預計到明年年底白銀價格將強勁上漲，超出之前的預期。</p>
</div><p>Commerzbank now sees silver prices trading at $41 per ounce by the end of this year, and $43 an ounce by the end of 2026.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>德國商業銀行現在預計到今年年底白銀價格將達到每盎司 41 美元，到 2026 年底將達到每盎司 43 美元。</p>
</div><p>Silver prices on COMEX breached the $43 per ounce recently, a level not seen since 2011.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>COMEX 上的白銀價格最近突破了每盎司 43 美元，這是自 2011 年以來未見的水平。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://invezz.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/image-826.png" alt="" original-src="https://invezz.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/image-826.png"/></p>
<p>Source: Commerzbank Research</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>來源：德國商業銀行研究</p>
</div><p>After Friday’s decline, the gold/silver ratio is hovering around 86, close to the year’s low recorded in early September.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在週五的下跌後，黃金/白銀比率徘徊在 86 左右，接近九月初創下的年度低點。</p>
</div><p>Since the beginning of the year, silver has gained nearly 50%, outperforming even gold.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>自年初以來，白銀價格上漲近 50%，甚至超過了黃金的表現。</p>
</div><p>The post Commerzbank lifts gold forecasts on Fed rate cut hopes; silver to continue rising appeared first on Invezz</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>本文首發於 Invezz，標題為《德國商業銀行上調黃金預測，因美聯儲降息預期；白銀將繼續上漲》。</p>
</div>

德國商業銀行因預期美聯儲降息而上調黃金價格預測；白銀價格預計將繼續上漲