<p>華爾街投資者常被視為擁有超凡洞察力，與普通參與者有所不同。雖然許多機構交易者確實採用先進的算法策略，但他們的操作並非完全對公眾隱秘。</p>
<p>美國證券交易委員會（SEC）要求管理超過 1 億美元股票的公司在每個季度末提交 13F 表格。這些文件揭示了哪些股票被買入和賣出，為投資者提供了一個瞭解 “聰明資金” 流向的難得窗口。我密切關注的一位投資者是杜克斯家族辦公室的斯坦利·德魯肯米勒。</p>
<p>今年早些時候，德魯肯米勒退出了杜克斯對數據分析專家 <strong>Palantir Technologies</strong> 的投資。同時，在過去四個季度中，他一直在穩步增持 <strong>台積電</strong>（TSM 0.24%）的股份。</p>
<p>讓我們來看看削減對 Palantir 的投資是否是一個及時的決定，以及將資金重新分配到台積電如何在長期內產生更強的回報。</p>
<h2>現在出售 Palantir 股票是否合理？</h2>
<p>在過去三年中，Palantir 在人工智能革命中一直是一個主導力量。其人工智能平台（AIP）的推出引發了對公司 Apollo、Gotham 和 Foundry 應用程序的前所未有的需求——這些應用程序在主要公司和政府機構中深度集成。公司的迅猛崛起令人矚目，為投資者提供了一個引人注目的敍述，超越了傳統的 “七大巨頭”。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/b30c14773010e433e7c98a78ba675c02.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="720" height="541" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/b30c14773010e433e7c98a78ba675c02.png"/></p>
<p>PLTR PS 比率數據來源於 YCharts</p>
<p>儘管如此，我認為 Palantir 的估值是其最明顯的擔憂。以 126 的市銷率（P/S）計算，該股票的交易水平不僅遠高於其軟件同行，而且超出了互聯網泡沫期間所見的極端水平。</p>
<p>雖然 Palantir 在長期內仍是一傢俱有重要上行潛力的公司，但目前該股票已變得過熱。德魯肯米勒減少對 Palantir 的投資反映了謹慎的風險管理——他在之前也曾對 Palantir 股票表現出這種謹慎。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MzMwMDcvZ2V0dHlpbWFnZXMtMTQ2ODI2NjE1MS00LmpwZyZ3PTcwMA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="700" height="393" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MzMwMDcvZ2V0dHlpbWFnZXMtMTQ2ODI2NjE1MS00LmpwZyZ3PTcwMA"/></p>
<p>圖片來源：Getty Images。</p>
<h2>德魯肯米勒可能喜歡台積電股票的原因是什麼？</h2>
<p>多年來，投資者聽説大型科技公司向芯片和網絡設備投入數千億美元，以推動下一代數據中心。顯而易見的結論是，資本支出（capex）的上升為 <strong>Nvidia</strong> 和 <strong>Advanced Micro Devices</strong> 創造了強勁的順風，因其在提供使生成性人工智能成為現實的 GPU 方面的角色。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/ce8cc2da7a08f4d9d0319fd5536a9023.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="720" height="507" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/ce8cc2da7a08f4d9d0319fd5536a9023.png"/></p>
<p>AMZN 資本支出（TTM）數據來源於 YCharts</p>
<p>然而，討論得較少的是，Nvidia、AMD 及許多其他公司的設計最終依賴於台積電的代工服務。簡單來説，台積電（TSMC）是實際組裝芯片的公司。我喜歡用的比喻是，台積電在人工智能淘金熱中出售鏟子。</p>
<p>這個故事並不僅限於生成性人工智能。自動系統、機器人和量子計算等新應用類別才剛剛開始出現。當它們朝着商業可行性擴展時，台積電無與倫比的代工能力將再次成為持續人工智能基礎設施投資的關鍵支柱。</p>
<p>我懷疑這些長期的順風正是德魯肯米勒試圖利用的：一家不僅參與人工智能運動的公司，最終仍將是其演變不可或缺的基礎。</p>
<h2>現在台積電股票值得購買嗎？</h2>
<p>乍一看，很難説台積電股票是 “便宜的”，因為其前瞻市盈率（P/E）為 26。目前估值擴張顯然正在發生，受到科技領域樂觀宏觀背景的推動。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/a2faf215078466dc3c5bd8acdf4c80e8.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="720" height="441" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/a2faf215078466dc3c5bd8acdf4c80e8.png"/></p>
<p>TSM 前瞻市盈率（PE）數據來源於 YCharts</p>
<p>然而，在表面之下，像德魯肯米勒這樣的投資者似乎認識到台積電在人工智能價值鏈中的角色。儘管如此，該公司仍然被更引人注目的同行所掩蓋。一些投資者可能也因與中國的潛在地緣政治緊張關係而猶豫是否投資台積電。</p>
<p>雖然這些擔憂是合理的，但我認為對台積電長期潛力的看法已經扭曲。換句話説，一些這些因素以及集中在其他芯片股票上的炒作正在削弱本來清晰的投資案例。</p>
<p>對我來説，台積電可能是更廣泛人工智能方程中最關鍵的變量。對於長期投資者來説，台積電股票看起來是一個不容錯過的買入和持有機會，因為人工智能敍述將繼續展開。</p>

台積電

PLTR

半導體 3 倍做多 - Direxion

<p>億萬富翁投資者斯坦利·德魯肯米勒已出售其在 Palantir Technologies 的股份，並增加對台積電的投資。德魯肯米勒退出 Palantir 的決定反映了謹慎的風險管理，因為該公司的市銷率較高。他認為，台積電在滿足日益增長的人工智能基礎設施需求方面處於有利位置，因為它在主要科技公司的芯片製造中發揮着關鍵作用。儘管對估值和地緣政治緊張局勢存在擔憂，台積電仍被視為人工智能領域的強勁長期投資</p>

<p>Wall Street investors are often seen as possessing a sage-like insight that sets them apart from everyday participants. While many institutional traders do employ advanced algorithmic strategies, their moves are not entirely hidden from the public.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>華爾街投資者常被視為擁有超凡洞察力，與普通參與者有所不同。雖然許多機構交易者確實採用先進的算法策略，但他們的操作並非完全對公眾隱秘。</p>
</div><p>The Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) requires firms managing $100 million or more in stocks to file a form 13F at the end of each quarter. These filings reveal which stocks were bought and sold, offering investors a rare window into where &#34;smart money&#34; is moving. One investor I follow closely is Stanley Druckenmiller of the Duquesne Family Office.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美國證券交易委員會（SEC）要求管理超過 1 億美元股票的公司在每個季度末提交 13F 表格。這些文件揭示了哪些股票被買入和賣出，為投資者提供了一個瞭解 “聰明資金” 流向的難得窗口。我密切關注的一位投資者是杜克斯家族辦公室的斯坦利·德魯肯米勒。</p>
</div><p>Earlier this year, Druckenmiller exited Duquesne's stake in data analytics specialist <strong>Palantir Technologies</strong>. Meanwhile, over the past four quarters, he has been steadily building a position in <strong>Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing</strong>(TSM 0.24%).</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>今年早些時候，德魯肯米勒退出了杜克斯對數據分析專家 <strong>Palantir Technologies</strong> 的投資。同時，在過去四個季度中，他一直在穩步增持 <strong>台積電</strong>（TSM 0.24%）的股份。</p>
</div><p>Let's examine why trimming exposure to Palantir could prove a timely decision -- and how reallocating capital into Taiwan Semi could generate stronger returns in the long run.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>讓我們來看看削減對 Palantir 的投資是否是一個及時的決定，以及將資金重新分配到台積電如何在長期內產生更強的回報。</p>
</div><h2>Does Selling Palantir stock make sense right now?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>現在出售 Palantir 股票是否合理？</h2>
</div><p>Palantir has been a dominant force in the AI revolution over the past three years. The launch of its Artificial Intelligence Platform (AIP) has ignited unprecedented demand for the company's Apollo, Gotham, and Foundry applications -- each of which are deeply integrated across major corporations and government agencies. The company's meteoric rise has been remarkable, giving investors a compelling narrative outside of the traditional &#34;Magnificent Seven.&#34;</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在過去三年中，Palantir 在人工智能革命中一直是一個主導力量。其人工智能平台（AIP）的推出引發了對公司 Apollo、Gotham 和 Foundry 應用程序的前所未有的需求——這些應用程序在主要公司和政府機構中深度集成。公司的迅猛崛起令人矚目，為投資者提供了一個引人注目的敍述，超越了傳統的 “七大巨頭”。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/b30c14773010e433e7c98a78ba675c02.png" alt="" original-src="https://media.ycharts.com/charts/b30c14773010e433e7c98a78ba675c02.png"/></p>
<p>PLTR PS Ratio data by YCharts</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>PLTR PS 比率數據來源於 YCharts</p>
</div><p>That said, I see Palantir's valuation as its most glaring concern. With a price-to-sales (P/S) ratio of 126, the stock trades at levels not only well above its software peers, but also beyond the extremes that were witnessed during the dot-com bubble.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>儘管如此，我認為 Palantir 的估值是其最明顯的擔憂。以 126 的市銷率（P/S）計算，該股票的交易水平不僅遠高於其軟件同行，而且超出了互聯網泡沫期間所見的極端水平。</p>
</div><p>While Palantir remains a company with meaningful upside potential in the long run, the stock has become frothy at the moment. Druckenmiller's decision to reduce exposure to Palantir reflects prudent risk management -- something he has demonstrated with Palantir stock previously, too.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>雖然 Palantir 在長期內仍是一傢俱有重要上行潛力的公司，但目前該股票已變得過熱。德魯肯米勒減少對 Palantir 的投資反映了謹慎的風險管理——他在之前也曾對 Palantir 股票表現出這種謹慎。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MzMwMDcvZ2V0dHlpbWFnZXMtMTQ2ODI2NjE1MS00LmpwZyZ3PTcwMA" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F833007%2Fgettyimages-1468266151-4.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>圖片來源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><h2>What might Druckenmiller like about TSMC stock?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>德魯肯米勒可能喜歡台積電股票的原因是什麼？</h2>
</div><p>For years, investors have heard about big tech pouring hundreds of billions of dollars into chips and network equipment to power the next generation of data centers. The obvious takeaway is that rising capital expenditures (capex) create a powerful tailwind for <strong>Nvidia</strong> and <strong>Advanced Micro Devices</strong>, given their role in supplying the GPUs that make generative AI a reality.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>多年來，投資者聽説大型科技公司向芯片和網絡設備投入數千億美元，以推動下一代數據中心。顯而易見的結論是，資本支出（capex）的上升為 <strong>Nvidia</strong> 和 <strong>Advanced Micro Devices</strong> 創造了強勁的順風，因其在提供使生成性人工智能成為現實的 GPU 方面的角色。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/ce8cc2da7a08f4d9d0319fd5536a9023.png" alt="" original-src="https://media.ycharts.com/charts/ce8cc2da7a08f4d9d0319fd5536a9023.png"/></p>
<p>AMZN Capital Expenditures (TTM) data by YCharts</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>AMZN 資本支出（TTM）數據來源於 YCharts</p>
</div><p>What is discussed far less, however, is that designs from Nvidia, AMD, and many others ultimately depend on the foundry services of Taiwan Semiconductor. Put simply, TSMC (as it is also known) is the company actually assembling the chips. The metaphor that I like to use is that Taiwan Semi is selling the shovels during the AI gold rush.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，討論得較少的是，Nvidia、AMD 及許多其他公司的設計最終依賴於台積電的代工服務。簡單來説，台積電（TSMC）是實際組裝芯片的公司。我喜歡用的比喻是，台積電在人工智能淘金熱中出售鏟子。</p>
</div><p>This story doesn't end with generative AI, either. New classes of applications across autonomous systems, robotics, and quantum computing are only just beginning to emerge. As they scale toward commercial viability, TSMC's unrivaled foundry capabilities should once again serve as a critical backbone to ongoing AI infrastructure investment.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這個故事並不僅限於生成性人工智能。自動系統、機器人和量子計算等新應用類別才剛剛開始出現。當它們朝着商業可行性擴展時，台積電無與倫比的代工能力將再次成為持續人工智能基礎設施投資的關鍵支柱。</p>
</div><p>I suspect that these secular tailwinds are precisely what Druckenmiller is trying to capitalize on: a company positioned not just to participate in the AI movement, but ultimately remain an indispensable foundation to its evolution.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>我懷疑這些長期的順風正是德魯肯米勒試圖利用的：一家不僅參與人工智能運動的公司，最終仍將是其演變不可或缺的基礎。</p>
</div><h2>Is Taiwan Semi stock a buy right now?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>現在台積電股票值得購買嗎？</h2>
</div><p>At first glance, it's difficult to argue that Taiwan Semi stock is &#34;cheap&#34; with a forward price-to-earnings (P/E) multiple of 26. Valuation expansion is clearly happening at the moment, fueled by a bullish macro backdrop in the technology landscape.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>乍一看，很難説台積電股票是 “便宜的”，因為其前瞻市盈率（P/E）為 26。目前估值擴張顯然正在發生，受到科技領域樂觀宏觀背景的推動。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/a2faf215078466dc3c5bd8acdf4c80e8.png" alt="" original-src="https://media.ycharts.com/charts/a2faf215078466dc3c5bd8acdf4c80e8.png"/></p>
<p>TSM PE Ratio (Forward) data by YCharts</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>TSM 前瞻市盈率（PE）數據來源於 YCharts</p>
</div><p>Yet beneath the surface, investors like Druckenmiller seem to recognize TSMC's role in the AI value chain. Despite this, the company remains overshadowed by flashier peers. Some investors are also likely hesitating over investing in Taiwan Semi due to potential geopolitical tensions with China.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，在表面之下，像德魯肯米勒這樣的投資者似乎認識到台積電在人工智能價值鏈中的角色。儘管如此，該公司仍然被更引人注目的同行所掩蓋。一些投資者可能也因與中國的潛在地緣政治緊張關係而猶豫是否投資台積電。</p>
</div><p>While these concerns are valid, I think the perception around Taiwan Semi's long-term potential has become distorted. In other words, some of these factors as well as hype concentrated in other chip stocks are undermining what is otherwise a clear investment case.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>雖然這些擔憂是合理的，但我認為對台積電長期潛力的看法已經扭曲。換句話説，一些這些因素以及集中在其他芯片股票上的炒作正在削弱本來清晰的投資案例。</p>
</div><p>To me, TSMC may be the single most critical variable in the broader AI equation. For long-term investors, Taiwan Semi stock looks like a no-brainer opportunity to buy and hold as the AI narrative continues to unfold.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>對我來説，台積電可能是更廣泛人工智能方程中最關鍵的變量。對於長期投資者來説，台積電股票看起來是一個不容錯過的買入和持有機會，因為人工智能敍述將繼續展開。</p>
</div>

Billionaire Stanley Druckenmiller Sold Palantir Stock and Is Piling Into This Specialized AI Chipmaker Instead

- 投資者需關注 SEC 的 13F 報告，瞭解機構投資動向。  
- Stanley Druckenmiller 減持 Palantir，增持台積電，反映風險管理策略。  
- 台積電在 AI 產業鏈中扮演關鍵角色，長期投資價值顯著。  

億萬富翁斯坦利·德魯肯米勒出售了 Palantir Tech 的股票，並轉而投資這家專注於 AI 芯片製造的公司