<p>美國抵押貸款市場正經歷多年來未見的復甦，借貸成本的急劇下降促使了一波再融資活動，提前迎接市場普遍預期的聯邦儲備利率下調——這表明房主並不等待政策確認就鎖定節省。</p>
<p>根據抵押貸款銀行家協會（MBA）的新數據，截至 9 月 12 日的一週，總抵押貸款申請量較前一週激增 29.7%。</p>
<p>這是自 1 月份以來最大的周增幅，也是自 2020 年 3 月 COVID-19 危機期間歷史性利率崩潰以來的第二大增幅。</p>
<h2>隨着抵押貸款利率下降，再融資熱潮爆發</h2>
<p>這一激增恰逢基準 30 年期固定抵押貸款利率顯著下降 10 個基點，降至 6.39%，為近一年來的最低水平。再融資活動引領了這一波浪潮，MBA 的抵押貸款再融資指數從前一週的 1,012.4 飆升 57.7% 至 1,596.7，這是自 2022 年 3 月以來的最高讀數。</p>
<p>根據 MBA 首席經濟學家 <strong>Mike Fratantoni</strong> 的説法，這一舉動表明借款人正在提前行動，以期待更低的利率。</p>
<p>“房主反應迅速，再融資申請量較前一週幾乎增長了 60%，” Fratantoni 説。</p>
<p>“貸款額度較大的房主首先行動，因為再融資的平均貸款額度達到了我們調查 35 年曆史以來的最高水平，” 他補充道。</p>
<h2>圖表：抵押貸款再融資指數在聯邦儲備利率變動前飆升</h2>
<h2>市場在聯邦儲備之前已做出反應</h2>
<p>Fratantoni 強調，設定長期抵押貸款利率的債券市場對聯邦儲備的鴿派傾向做出了早期反應。</p>
<p>儘管聯邦儲備在週三僅正式將利率下調 25 個基點至 4.00%-4.25%，但國債收益率和抵押貸款利率已經開始下降。</p>
<p>“抵押貸款利率以及長期國債在這一鴿派貨幣政策轉變之前就已達到今年的最低點，” 他説。</p>
<p>“如果抵押貸款利率保持在這些水平，發放活動將會增加，無論是對於過去三年內購房的房主，還是對於潛在的購房者。”</p>
<h2>聯邦儲備暗示未來將進一步降息</h2>
<p>在其更新的預測中，聯邦儲備暗示 2025 年將再降兩次息，2026 年再降一次，同時也承認勞動力市場疲軟。</p>
<p>Fratantoni 將這一政策舉動描述為謹慎，強調聯邦儲備努力支持就業而不引發對經濟狀況的恐慌。</p>
<p>儘管 25 個基點的降息並非一致通過——特朗普任命的聯邦儲備理事 <strong>Stephen Miran</strong> 支持更大幅度的 50 個基點降息，但大多數政策制定者支持這種漸進的方式。</p>
<p>隨着抵押貸款利率的放鬆和對進一步降息的預期加劇，再融資活動可能在年末保持強勁。</p>
<p>住房庫存的增加、更加有利的借貸成本以及改善的經濟背景的結合，可能也會為購房市場注入新活力，而該市場在過去兩年中因 20 年來最高的抵押貸款利率而受到壓制。</p>
<h2>市場反應：房地產股票仍然停滯不前</h2>
<p>儘管抵押貸款激增，房地產股票尚未反映出改善的利率環境。</p>
<p><strong>房地產選擇行業 SPDR 基金</strong> XLRE 在週三連續四個交易日下跌，今年迄今僅上漲 3%，顯著落後於大盤。相比之下，<strong>先鋒標準普爾 500 ETF</strong> VOO 在同一時期上漲近 12%。</p>
<p>住宅房地產板塊表現更差。<strong>住宅 REIT ETF</strong> HAUS 今年迄今下跌 8%，而 <strong>iShares 住宅和多行業房地產 ETF</strong> REZ 則基本持平。</p>
<p>投資者對房地產股票的情緒仍然謹慎，許多人在等待租金穩定、入住率增長和對聯邦儲備下一步行動的更清晰信號。但如果低利率持續，再融資熱潮提升住房需求，房地產股票可能會迎來久違的反彈。</p>
<ul>
<li><strong>歷史警示：標準普爾 500 指數在聯邦儲備降息後往往下滑</strong></li>
</ul>
<p><em>照片：bilanol/shutterstock</em></p>

AOMR

<p>美國抵押貸款市場正在經歷顯著復甦，抵押貸款申請量因借貸成本下降而增加了 29.7%，這主要是由於市場預期美聯儲將降息。30 年期固定抵押貸款利率降至 6.39%，促使再融資活動上升了 57.7%。儘管如此，房地產股票表現不佳，投資者情緒依然謹慎。美聯儲最近的降息及未來降息的預測可能會支持持續的再融資，並有可能振興住房市場，儘管房地產股依然疲軟</p>

<p>The U.S. mortgage market is experiencing a resurgence not seen in years, as a sharp drop in borrowing costs prompted a wave of refinancing activity ahead of the Federal Reserve's widely expected interest rate cut—signaling that homeowners aren't waiting for policy confirmation to lock in savings.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美國抵押貸款市場正經歷多年來未見的復甦，借貸成本的急劇下降促使了一波再融資活動，提前迎接市場普遍預期的聯邦儲備利率下調——這表明房主並不等待政策確認就鎖定節省。</p>
</div><p>During the week ending Sept. 12, total mortgage application volume jumped 29.7% from the prior week, according to new data from the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA).</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>根據抵押貸款銀行家協會（MBA）的新數據，截至 9 月 12 日的一週，總抵押貸款申請量較前一週激增 29.7%。</p>
</div><p>That's the largest weekly gain since January and the second-sharpest increase since the historic rate collapse during the COVID-19 crisis in March 2020.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這是自 1 月份以來最大的周增幅，也是自 2020 年 3 月 COVID-19 危機期間歷史性利率崩潰以來的第二大增幅。</p>
</div><h2>Refi Frenzy Breaks Out as Mortgage Rates Fall</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>隨着抵押貸款利率下降，再融資熱潮爆發</h2>
</div><p>The surge coincided with a notable 10 basis point drop in the benchmark 30-year fixed mortgage rate, which fell to 6.39%, the lowest level in nearly a year. Refinancing activity led the wave, with the MBA's Mortgage Refinance Index skyrocketing 57.7% to 1,596.7, from 1,012.4 the week prior—its highest reading since March 2022.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這一激增恰逢基準 30 年期固定抵押貸款利率顯著下降 10 個基點，降至 6.39%，為近一年來的最低水平。再融資活動引領了這一波浪潮，MBA 的抵押貸款再融資指數從前一週的 1,012.4 飆升 57.7% 至 1,596.7，這是自 2022 年 3 月以來的最高讀數。</p>
</div><p>According to MBA chief economist <strong>Mike Fratantoni,</strong> this move shows borrowers are moving ahead of monetary policy in anticipation of lower rates.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>根據 MBA 首席經濟學家 <strong>Mike Fratantoni</strong> 的説法，這一舉動表明借款人正在提前行動，以期待更低的利率。</p>
</div><p>&#34;Homeowners responded swiftly, with refinance application volume jumping almost 60 percent compared to the prior week,&#34; Fratantoni said.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“房主反應迅速，再融資申請量較前一週幾乎增長了 60%，” Fratantoni 説。</p>
</div><p>&#34;Homeowners with larger loans jumped first, as the average loan size on refinances reached its highest level in the 35-year history of our survey,&#34; he added.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“貸款額度較大的房主首先行動，因為再融資的平均貸款額度達到了我們調查 35 年曆史以來的最高水平，” 他補充道。</p>
</div><h2>Chart: Mortgage Refinance Index Rockets Ahead Of Fed Rate Move</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>圖表：抵押貸款再融資指數在聯邦儲備利率變動前飆升</h2>
</div><h2>Market Moved Ahead Of The Fed</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>市場在聯邦儲備之前已做出反應</h2>
</div><p>Fratantoni highlighted that the bond market, which sets long-term mortgage rates, reacted early to the Federal Reserve's dovish tilt.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Fratantoni 強調，設定長期抵押貸款利率的債券市場對聯邦儲備的鴿派傾向做出了早期反應。</p>
</div><p>Despite the Fed only officially cutting rates by 25 basis points to 4.00%-4.25% on Wednesday, Treasury yields and mortgage rates had already begun their descent.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>儘管聯邦儲備在週三僅正式將利率下調 25 個基點至 4.00%-4.25%，但國債收益率和抵押貸款利率已經開始下降。</p>
</div><p>&#34;Mortgage rates, along with longer-term Treasuries moving in advance of this dovish shift in monetary policy, reached their lowest point for the year last week,&#34; he said.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“抵押貸款利率以及長期國債在這一鴿派貨幣政策轉變之前就已達到今年的最低點，” 他説。</p>
</div><p>&#34;If mortgage rates hold at these levels, origination activity will be boosted, both for homeowners who purchased in the last three years and for potential homebuyers.&#34;</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“如果抵押貸款利率保持在這些水平，發放活動將會增加，無論是對於過去三年內購房的房主，還是對於潛在的購房者。”</p>
</div><h2>Fed Signals More Cuts Ahead</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>聯邦儲備暗示未來將進一步降息</h2>
</div><p>In its updated projections, the Fed signaled two additional cuts in 2025 and another in 2026, while also acknowledging a weaker labor market.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在其更新的預測中，聯邦儲備暗示 2025 年將再降兩次息，2026 年再降一次，同時也承認勞動力市場疲軟。</p>
</div><p>Fratantoni described the policy move as measured, highlighting the Fed's effort to support employment without triggering panic about economic conditions.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Fratantoni 將這一政策舉動描述為謹慎，強調聯邦儲備努力支持就業而不引發對經濟狀況的恐慌。</p>
</div><p>Though the 25-basis-point rate cut was not unanimous—with Trump-appointed Fed Governor <strong>Stephen Miran</strong> favoring a larger 50-basis-point move—the majority of policymakers supported the gradual approach.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>儘管 25 個基點的降息並非一致通過——特朗普任命的聯邦儲備理事 <strong>Stephen Miran</strong> 支持更大幅度的 50 個基點降息，但大多數政策制定者支持這種漸進的方式。</p>
</div><p>With mortgage rates easing and expectations for further rate cuts building, refinancing could remain strong through year-end.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>隨着抵押貸款利率的放鬆和對進一步降息的預期加劇，再融資活動可能在年末保持強勁。</p>
</div><p>The combination of rising housing inventory, more favorable borrowing costs, and an improving economic backdrop may also breathe new life into the purchase market, which has struggled under the weight of 20-year high mortgage rates over the past two years.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>住房庫存的增加、更加有利的借貸成本以及改善的經濟背景的結合，可能也會為購房市場注入新活力，而該市場在過去兩年中因 20 年來最高的抵押貸款利率而受到壓制。</p>
</div><h2>Market Reactions: Real Estate Stocks Still Stuck</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>市場反應：房地產股票仍然停滯不前</h2>
</div><p>Despite the mortgage surge, real estate stocks have yet to reflect the improving rate environment.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>儘管抵押貸款激增，房地產股票尚未反映出改善的利率環境。</p>
</div><p>The <strong>Real Estate Select Sector SPDR Fund</strong> XLRE has fallen for four straight sessions through Wednesday and is up just 3% year-to-date, significantly underperforming the broader market. For comparison, the <strong>Vanguard S&amp;P 500 ETF</strong> VOO has rallied nearly 12% in the same period.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>房地產選擇行業 SPDR 基金</strong> XLRE 在週三連續四個交易日下跌，今年迄今僅上漲 3%，顯著落後於大盤。相比之下，<strong>先鋒標準普爾 500 ETF</strong> VOO 在同一時期上漲近 12%。</p>
</div><p>The residential real estate sector has fared even worse. The <strong>Residential REIT ETF</strong> HAUS is down 8% year-to-date, while the <strong>iShares Residential and Multisector Real Estate ETF</strong> REZ is broadly flat.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>住宅房地產板塊表現更差。<strong>住宅 REIT ETF</strong> HAUS 今年迄今下跌 8%，而 <strong>iShares 住宅和多行業房地產 ETF</strong> REZ 則基本持平。</p>
</div><p>Investor sentiment toward property stocks remains cautious, with many waiting for tangible signs of rent stabilization, occupancy growth, and more clarity on the Fed's next moves. But if lower rates persist and the refinance boom lifts housing demand, real estate equities may be poised for a long-overdue rebound.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>投資者對房地產股票的情緒仍然謹慎，許多人在等待租金穩定、入住率增長和對聯邦儲備下一步行動的更清晰信號。但如果低利率持續，再融資熱潮提升住房需求，房地產股票可能會迎來久違的反彈。</p>
</div><ul>
<li><strong>History Warns: S&amp;P 500 Often Slips After Fed Rate Cuts</strong></li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li><strong>歷史警示：標準普爾 500 指數在聯邦儲備降息後往往下滑</strong></li>
</ul>
</div><p><em>Photo: bilanol/shutterstock</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>照片：bilanol/shutterstock</em></p>
</div>

This Mortgage Boom Didn't Even Wait For The Fed To Say 'Cut'

- 美國抵押貸款市場因借貸成本下降而復甦，申請量增長 29.7%。  
- 30 年固定抵押貸款利率降至 6.39%，創近一年新低。  
- 預計進一步降息將推動再融資活動，購房市場也可能復甦。  

這次抵押貸款熱潮甚至在美聯儲宣佈 ‘降息’ 之前就已經開始了