<p><strong>Meta Platforms</strong>(META 0.53%) 在上半年的財務業績令人印象深刻。其強勁的增長得益於強大的廣告需求和活躍的用户基礎，涵蓋了其社交媒體應用程序。該公司擁有 Facebook、Instagram、WhatsApp、Messenger 和 Threads，並在人工智能 (AI) 和創新廣告格式上進行了重大投資——同時收入和收益也在飆升。難怪市場一直在買入該股票。</p>
<p>Meta Platforms 仍然是全球最大的數字廣告銷售商之一——一個以廣告為主的業務，當市場營銷人員支出時可以快速增長，而當他們收縮時也會迅速回落。然而，這種強勁與脆弱的混合正是關鍵所在。儘管 Meta 在核心廣告方面的執行最近令人印象深刻，但有兩個結構性現實使其盈利能力比所謂的 &#34;七大巨頭&#34; 更加波動：對廣告週期的暴露和對主要由 <strong>Apple</strong> 和 <strong>Alphabet</strong> 控制的分發的依賴。再加上對用户注意力的可信競爭，Meta 的市盈率在 20 多倍的水平是合理的，而其他公司則獲得更高的溢價。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MzM5ODcvbWV0YS1wbGF0Zm9ybXMtc3RvY2suanBnJnc9NzAw?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MzM5ODcvbWV0YS1wbGF0Zm9ybXMtc3RvY2suanBnJnc9NzAw"/></p>
<p>圖片來源：Getty Images。</p>
<h2>以廣告驅動的動能及其侷限性</h2>
<p>Meta 最近的業績表現強勁。在 2025 年第二季度，收入同比增長 22% 達到 475 億美元，運營收入增長 38%，運營利潤率擴大至 43%，因為廣告需求保持健康。管理層在公司隨後的第二季度財報電話會議中還指出，需求在各個垂直領域和地理區域廣泛存在，小型廣告客户也為增長做出了貢獻。</p>
<p>為什麼像這樣的企業不會在市盈率上達到三十倍？關鍵在於集中度。Meta 的幾乎所有收入都來自廣告，這些結果隨着市場營銷預算的波動而波動。廣告往往表現得像一種週期性支出：當增長恐懼上升時，許多品牌和直接響應廣告客户會迅速削減支出。這種動態可能會比那些收入更具重複性、合同性或多樣化的企業更突然地壓縮 Meta 的收入和運營槓桿。</p>
<h2>平台依賴性</h2>
<p>Meta 的第二個結構性風險是分發。Meta 的產品依賴於其無法控制的移動操作系統和應用商店。在其年度報告中，該公司警告稱，Apple 或 Alphabet 的變化可能會限制其定位和測量廣告的能力，降低產品功能，甚至使訪問其應用程序變得更加困難——並且 Apple 自 2021 年以來的 iOS 變更對廣告表現和收入產生了負面影響。Apple 的應用追蹤透明度框架正式化了用户對跨應用追蹤的選擇，説明了單一平台政策如何在 Meta 的廣告系統中產生連鎖反應。這些並不是理論上的擔憂；它們是已經影響結果並可能再次影響的已記錄因素。</p>
<h2>對年輕一代的爭奪戰</h2>
<p>對注意力的競爭依然真實。TikTok 的快速崛起表明新的社交平台可以迅速贏得市場份額，而 <strong>Snap</strong> 的 Snapchat 在美國青少年中仍然非常受歡迎，與 Instagram 並駕齊驅。Meta 通過 Reels 和推薦改進做出了良好的回應——最近的季度反映了這一點——但爭奪時間和注意力的競爭比以往任何時候都更加激烈。</p>
<p>雖然 Snap 可能最初看起來對 Meta 不是威脅，但值得注意的是，該公司的日活躍用户正在快速增長。在第二季度，Snap 的日活躍用户同比增長 9%。此外，該公司的月活躍用户數量接近 10 億。</p>
<h2>這對估值意味着什麼</h2>
<p>一個 (1) 依賴於可自由支配的廣告預算，(2) 依賴外部平台進行分發和一些關鍵數據信號，(3) 面臨來自競爭對手的可信關注的企業，其估值應低於平台所有者或擁有更多多樣化、合同性或公用事業型現金流的公司。目前，Meta 的市盈率大約在 20 多倍的高位，低於 <strong>Microsoft</strong> 和 <strong>Amazon</strong>（最近均在低至中 30 倍之間），略高於 Alphabet，後者的市盈率約為 27 倍。這種差距大致是合理的。Microsoft 和 Amazon 更依賴於訂閲、企業和雲支出，而 Alphabet 則有一個以廣告為主的業務。儘管如此，我認為 Alphabet 理應比 Meta 交易更高的倍數。儘管其業務在很大程度上依賴於廣告，但它受益於更廣泛的組合，包括快速增長的雲業務和對 Android 平台的控制。</p>
<p>是的，如果用户參與度保持不變且廣告工具不斷改善，Meta 股票可能會繼續複合增長。此外，Meta 似乎始終為風險做好準備，保持健康的資產負債表——這可能在經濟疲軟時期幫助它。但其收入的性質及其與守門人的關係意味着，總有可能出現宏觀疲軟、新的隱私規則或政策變化比預期更快地影響業績。因此，廣告的週期性、平台的暴露以及對注意力的激烈競爭，表明市場在市盈率維持在 20 多倍的水平是明智的，即使業績依然強勁。</p>

META

<p>Meta Platforms 在上半年展現了強勁的財務業績，得益於強勁的廣告需求。然而，由於依賴廣告週期以及受蘋果和 Alphabet 控制的分發，其盈利能力比同行更具波動性。儘管增長令人印象深刻，Meta 的市盈率仍在 20 倍區間，低於其他 “七大巨頭” 公司，這反映了其對可自由支配廣告預算的依賴以及來自 TikTok 和 Snap 等平台的競爭。該公司保持着健康的資產負債表，但面臨宏觀經濟因素和政策變化帶來的風險</p>

<p><strong>Meta Platforms</strong>(META 0.53%) financial results have been impressive in the first half of the year. Its strong growth has been fueled by robust advertising demand and an engaged user base across its social media apps. The company, which owns Facebook, Instagram, WhatsApp, Messenger, and Threads, is making significant investments in artificial intelligence (AI) and innovative ad formats -- all while revenue and earnings are soaring. No wonder the Street has been buying up the stock.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>Meta Platforms</strong>(META 0.53%) 在上半年的財務業績令人印象深刻。其強勁的增長得益於強大的廣告需求和活躍的用户基礎，涵蓋了其社交媒體應用程序。該公司擁有 Facebook、Instagram、WhatsApp、Messenger 和 Threads，並在人工智能 (AI) 和創新廣告格式上進行了重大投資——同時收入和收益也在飆升。難怪市場一直在買入該股票。</p>
</div><p>Meta Platforms remains one of the world's largest digital ad sellers -- an advertising-led business that can grow quickly when marketers spend and pull back just as fast when they don't. That mix of strength and fragility, however, is the point here. While Meta's execution in core ads has been impressive lately, two structural realities make its earnings power more volatile than peers in the so-called &#34;Magnificent Seven&#34;: exposure to advertising cycles and reliance on distribution largely controlled by <strong>Apple</strong> and <strong>Alphabet</strong>. Add in credible competition for user attention, and it's reasonable that Meta's price-to-earnings multiple sits in the 20s while others command richer premiums.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Meta Platforms 仍然是全球最大的數字廣告銷售商之一——一個以廣告為主的業務，當市場營銷人員支出時可以快速增長，而當他們收縮時也會迅速回落。然而，這種強勁與脆弱的混合正是關鍵所在。儘管 Meta 在核心廣告方面的執行最近令人印象深刻，但有兩個結構性現實使其盈利能力比所謂的 &#34;七大巨頭&#34; 更加波動：對廣告週期的暴露和對主要由 <strong>Apple</strong> 和 <strong>Alphabet</strong> 控制的分發的依賴。再加上對用户注意力的可信競爭，Meta 的市盈率在 20 多倍的水平是合理的，而其他公司則獲得更高的溢價。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MzM5ODcvbWV0YS1wbGF0Zm9ybXMtc3RvY2suanBnJnc9NzAw" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F833987%2Fmeta-platforms-stock.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>圖片來源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><h2>Ad-driven momentum -- and its limits</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>以廣告驅動的動能及其侷限性</h2>
</div><p>Meta's recent numbers are strong. In the second quarter of 2025, revenue rose 22% year over year to $47.5 billion, while income from operations increased 38% and operating margin expanded to 43% as ad demand stayed healthy. Management also noted in the company's follow-up second-quarter earnings call that demand was broad-based across verticals and geographies, with smaller advertisers contributing to growth.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Meta 最近的業績表現強勁。在 2025 年第二季度，收入同比增長 22% 達到 475 億美元，運營收入增長 38%，運營利潤率擴大至 43%，因為廣告需求保持健康。管理層在公司隨後的第二季度財報電話會議中還指出，需求在各個垂直領域和地理區域廣泛存在，小型廣告客户也為增長做出了貢獻。</p>
</div><p>Why wouldn't a business growing like this command a price-to-earnings multiple in the thirties? The catch is concentration. Substantially all of Meta's revenue is generated from advertising, and those results fluctuate with marketers' budgets. Advertising tends to behave like a cyclical expense: when growth fears rise, many brands and direct-response advertisers trim spend quickly. That dynamic can compress both Meta's top line and operating leverage more suddenly than businesses with more recurring, contracted, or diversified revenue.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>為什麼像這樣的企業不會在市盈率上達到三十倍？關鍵在於集中度。Meta 的幾乎所有收入都來自廣告，這些結果隨着市場營銷預算的波動而波動。廣告往往表現得像一種週期性支出：當增長恐懼上升時，許多品牌和直接響應廣告客户會迅速削減支出。這種動態可能會比那些收入更具重複性、合同性或多樣化的企業更突然地壓縮 Meta 的收入和運營槓桿。</p>
</div><h2>Platform dependence</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>平台依賴性</h2>
</div><p>Meta's second structural risk is distribution. Meta's products ride on mobile operating systems and app stores it does not control. In its annual filing, the company warns that changes by Apple or Alphabet can limit its ability to target and measure ads, degrade product functionality, or even make access to its apps more difficult -- and that Apple's iOS changes beginning in 2021 have negatively impacted ad performance and revenue. Apple's App Tracking Transparency framework formalized user opt-in for cross-app tracking, illustrating how a single platform policy can ripple through Meta's ad systems. These aren't theoretical worries; they're documented factors that have already affected results and could again.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Meta 的第二個結構性風險是分發。Meta 的產品依賴於其無法控制的移動操作系統和應用商店。在其年度報告中，該公司警告稱，Apple 或 Alphabet 的變化可能會限制其定位和測量廣告的能力，降低產品功能，甚至使訪問其應用程序變得更加困難——並且 Apple 自 2021 年以來的 iOS 變更對廣告表現和收入產生了負面影響。Apple 的應用追蹤透明度框架正式化了用户對跨應用追蹤的選擇，説明了單一平台政策如何在 Meta 的廣告系統中產生連鎖反應。這些並不是理論上的擔憂；它們是已經影響結果並可能再次影響的已記錄因素。</p>
</div><h2>A battle for younger generations</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>對年輕一代的爭奪戰</h2>
</div><p>Competition for attention also remains real. TikTok's rapid ascent showed that new social platforms can win share fast, and <strong>Snap</strong>'s Snapchat remains deeply popular among U.S. teens alongside Instagram. Meta has responded well with Reels and recommendation improvements -- and the recent quarter reflected that -- but the battle for time and attention is more competitive than ever.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>對注意力的競爭依然真實。TikTok 的快速崛起表明新的社交平台可以迅速贏得市場份額，而 <strong>Snap</strong> 的 Snapchat 在美國青少年中仍然非常受歡迎，與 Instagram 並駕齊驅。Meta 通過 Reels 和推薦改進做出了良好的回應——最近的季度反映了這一點——但爭奪時間和注意力的競爭比以往任何時候都更加激烈。</p>
</div><p>While Snap may not initially seem like a threat to Meta, it's worth noting that the company's daily active users are growing rapidly. In Q2, Snap's daily active users rose 9% year over year. In addition, the company's monthly active user count is approaching 1 billion.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>雖然 Snap 可能最初看起來對 Meta 不是威脅，但值得注意的是，該公司的日活躍用户正在快速增長。在第二季度，Snap 的日活躍用户同比增長 9%。此外，該公司的月活躍用户數量接近 10 億。</p>
</div><h2>What this means for valuation</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>這對估值意味着什麼</h2>
</div><p>A business that is (1) tied to discretionary ad budgets, (2) dependent on external platforms for distribution and some of its key data signals, and (3) facing credible attention from rivals deserves a lower valuation than platform owners or companies with more diversified, contracted, or utility-like cash flows. Today, Meta's price-to-earnings multiple sits roughly in the high-20s on a forward basis, below <strong>Microsoft</strong> and <strong>Amazon</strong> (both in the low-to-mid 30s recently) and slightly above Alphabet, with a price-to-earnings ratio of about 27. That spread mostly makes sense. Microsoft and Amazon lean more on subscription, enterprise, and cloud spending, while Alphabet has an advertising-heavy business. With this said, I believe Alphabet arguably deserves to trade at a higher multiple than Meta. Though its business relies a lot on ads, it benefits from a broader mix, including a fast-growing cloud segment and control of the Android platform.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>一個 (1) 依賴於可自由支配的廣告預算，(2) 依賴外部平台進行分發和一些關鍵數據信號，(3) 面臨來自競爭對手的可信關注的企業，其估值應低於平台所有者或擁有更多多樣化、合同性或公用事業型現金流的公司。目前，Meta 的市盈率大約在 20 多倍的高位，低於 <strong>Microsoft</strong> 和 <strong>Amazon</strong>（最近均在低至中 30 倍之間），略高於 Alphabet，後者的市盈率約為 27 倍。這種差距大致是合理的。Microsoft 和 Amazon 更依賴於訂閲、企業和雲支出，而 Alphabet 則有一個以廣告為主的業務。儘管如此，我認為 Alphabet 理應比 Meta 交易更高的倍數。儘管其業務在很大程度上依賴於廣告，但它受益於更廣泛的組合，包括快速增長的雲業務和對 Android 平台的控制。</p>
</div><p>Yes, Meta stock may continue to compound if engagement holds and ad tools keep improving. Additionally, Meta seems to try to always be prepared for risks by maintaining a healthy balance sheet -- something that may help it during times of economic weakness. But the nature of its revenue and its relationship with gatekeepers mean there's always a chance that macro softness, a new privacy rule, or a policy change dents performance faster than expected. Advertising cyclicality, platform exposure, and intense competition for attention, therefore, argue that a sustained price-to-earnings multiple in the 20s is a prudent place for the market to settle, even as results remain strong.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>是的，如果用户參與度保持不變且廣告工具不斷改善，Meta 股票可能會繼續複合增長。此外，Meta 似乎始終為風險做好準備，保持健康的資產負債表——這可能在經濟疲軟時期幫助它。但其收入的性質及其與守門人的關係意味着，總有可能出現宏觀疲軟、新的隱私規則或政策變化比預期更快地影響業績。因此，廣告的週期性、平台的暴露以及對注意力的激烈競爭，表明市場在市盈率維持在 20 多倍的水平是明智的，即使業績依然強勁。</p>
</div>

Here's Why Meta Platforms Should Trade at a Lower Multiple Than the Rest of the "Magnificent Seven"

- Meta Platforms 在 2025 年第二季度收入同比增長 22% 至 475 億美元。  
- 其廣告收入依賴於市場預算，面臨週期性波動風險。  
- 競爭加劇及平台依賴性使其估值低於其他科技巨頭。  

以下是為什麼 Meta Platforms 應該以比 “七大巨頭” 其他公司更低的市盈率進行交易的原因