<p>半導體行業在人工智能（AI）技術的發展中發揮了關鍵作用。從訓練流行的 AI 模型到在數據中心運行推理應用，再到為智能手機、個人電腦和汽車等邊緣設備提供 AI 工作負載，半導體通過快速執行大量計算來承擔重任。</p>
<p>不同類型的芯片正在處理上述應用中的 AI 工作負載。這些芯片包括中央處理器（CPU）、圖形處理器（GPU）和被稱為應用特定集成電路（ASIC）的專用芯片。設計這些芯片的公司，如 <strong>Nvidia</strong>、<strong>Advanced Micro Devices</strong> 和 <strong>Broadcom</strong>，近年來增長加速顯著。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MzMwMzgvYWktd3JpdHRlbi1vbi1jaXJjdWl0LWJvYXJkLmpwZyZ3PTcwMA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="700" height="376" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MzMwMzgvYWktd3JpdHRlbi1vbi1jaXJjdWl0LWJvYXJkLmpwZyZ3PTcwMA"/></p>
<p>圖片來源：Getty Images。</p>
<p>然而，重要的是要注意，以上提到的所有公司都是無工廠芯片製造商，這意味着它們只設計芯片，而不進行生產。生產由它們的代工合作伙伴——<strong>台積電</strong>（TSM 2.20%）完成。作為一家總部位於台灣的代工巨頭，台積電在這一技術的傳播中發揮了開創性作用。</p>
<p>讓我們看看為什麼台積電可能是最重要的半導體公司，並且有潛力在本十年末重新定義 AI 行業。</p>
<h2>台積電的先進工藝節點在 AI 擴展中發揮關鍵作用</h2>
<p>台積電的製造廠使用不同的工藝節點生產芯片。先進的工藝節點往往能在單個芯片中集成更多的晶體管。因此，這些芯片可以同時提供更強的計算能力並降低能耗。</p>
<p>Nvidia 的 A100 數據中心 GPU 用於訓練 ChatGPT，採用的是台積電的 7 納米（nm）工藝節點。Nvidia 目前據説正在使用台積電的 4nm 工藝節點來製造其最新一代的 Blackwell AI GPU。這些新 GPU 在性能和能效方面相較於基於 5nm 工藝的前一代芯片有顯著提升。</p>
<p>因此，台積電使 Nvidia 能夠通過轉向更好的工藝節點來提升其最新處理器的性能。因此，使用台積電先進工藝節點設計芯片的公司可以訓練更大的模型，並在數據中心更高效地運行 AI 推理應用。在 AI 模型變得越來越高效、對 AI 數據中心能耗的擔憂日益加劇的情況下，台積電製造的先進計算芯片的需求將會增加。</p>
<p>這正是台積電能夠持續增加其全球代工市場份額的原因。它在第二季度控制了令人印象深刻的 70.2% 的全球代工市場份額，比第一季度增加了 260 個基點。</p>
<p>第二大代工廠商三星的市場份額僅為 7.3%。這並不令人驚訝，因為韓國公司的工藝節點在性能上據説不如台積電。但台積電並沒有停止推動技術的邊界。</p>
<h2>更先進的工藝節點即將到來</h2>
<p>台積電的 3nm 節點被 <strong>Apple</strong>、<strong>Qualcomm</strong> 和其他芯片設計公司廣泛使用。預計該公司將在今年開始生產更先進的 2nm 工藝節點的芯片，承諾在晶體管密度上比 3nm 節點提高 15%。因此，台積電的 2nm 芯片可能在功耗上減少 25% 到 30%，並在性能上提高 10% 到 15%。</p>
<p>但這並不是公司要停止的地方。台積電管理層估計，到 2026 年底，它可以轉向 1.6nm 芯片節點，隨後在 2028 年轉向 1.4nm 節點。該公司聲稱，1.4nm 工藝 “將在相同功率下提供高達 15% 的速度提升，或在相同速度下減少高達 30% 的功耗，同時邏輯密度提高超過 20%”，與 2nm 工藝相比。</p>
<p>最後，台積電估計到 2030 年可以轉向更小的 1nm 節點。這意味着台積電的客户未來可以製造出更強大的芯片，同時降低功耗。這理想上將使台積電在長期內增加其全球代工市場份額，為公司的未來增長奠定基礎。</p>
<p>毫不奇怪，分析師的共識估計預測台積電的盈利增長將加速。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/a512127ed048065728c4c1202b39db5d.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="720" height="380" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/a512127ed048065728c4c1202b39db5d.png"/></p>
<p>數據來源：YCharts。</p>
<p>憑藉上述產品路線圖，它可以在本十年末維持這一健康的增長率。假設台積電在 2029 年和 2030 年能夠以 20% 的年增長率增加其盈利，到 2030 年其每股收益可能達到 19.38 美元（從 2028 年的 13.46 美元）。將其乘以以科技股為主的 <strong>納斯達克 100</strong> 指數的前瞻性市盈率 26 倍，預計五年後股價將達到 511 美元，較當前水平潛在上漲 92%。</p>
<p>考慮到台積電的股票目前僅以 22 倍的前瞻性市盈率交易，投資者在這隻半導體股票上獲得了很好的交易。考慮到其吸引人的估值，投資者應立即考慮購買台積電的股票，因為公司在未來五年內通過更先進的芯片重新定義行業的能力可能導致超出預期的盈利增長，這可能導致其股價比上述預測更大幅度上漲。</p>

台積電

英偉達

半導體 3 倍做多 - Direxion

<p>半導體行業對人工智能技術至關重要，像英偉達和 AMD 這樣的公司依賴台積電進行芯片製造。台積電的先進工藝節點，如 7nm 和 4nm，提升了人工智能應用的性能和效率。台積電在全球代工市場佔有 70.2% 的份額，並計劃在 2028 年前推出 2nm 和 1.4nm 節點，承諾在功耗和性能方面實現顯著改善。分析師預測，台積電的收益可能每年增長 20%，到 2030 年其股價可能上漲 92%</p>

<p>The semiconductor industry has played a pivotal role in the growth of artificial intelligence (AI) technology. From training popular AI models to running inference applications in data centers to powering AI workloads on edge devices such as smartphones, personal computers, and cars, semiconductors do the heavy lifting by performing large amounts of calculations quickly.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>半導體行業在人工智能（AI）技術的發展中發揮了關鍵作用。從訓練流行的 AI 模型到在數據中心運行推理應用，再到為智能手機、個人電腦和汽車等邊緣設備提供 AI 工作負載，半導體通過快速執行大量計算來承擔重任。</p>
</div><p>Different types of chips are tackling AI workloads in the applications mentioned above. They include central processing units (CPUs), graphics processing units (GPUs), and specialized chips known as application-specific integrated circuits (ASICs). Companies that design these chips, such as <strong>Nvidia</strong>, <strong>Advanced Micro Devices</strong>, and <strong>Broadcom</strong>, have seen solid acceleration in growth in recent years.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>不同類型的芯片正在處理上述應用中的 AI 工作負載。這些芯片包括中央處理器（CPU）、圖形處理器（GPU）和被稱為應用特定集成電路（ASIC）的專用芯片。設計這些芯片的公司，如 <strong>Nvidia</strong>、<strong>Advanced Micro Devices</strong> 和 <strong>Broadcom</strong>，近年來增長加速顯著。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MzMwMzgvYWktd3JpdHRlbi1vbi1jaXJjdWl0LWJvYXJkLmpwZyZ3PTcwMA" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F833038%2Fai-written-on-circuit-board.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>圖片來源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><p>It's important to note, however, that all the above-mentioned names are fabless chipmakers, which means that they only design the chips and don't manufacture them. The manufacturing is done by their foundry partner -- <strong>Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing</strong>(TSM 2.20%). Popularly known as TSMC, this Taiwan-based foundry giant has played a pioneering role in the spread of this technology.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，重要的是要注意，以上提到的所有公司都是無工廠芯片製造商，這意味着它們只設計芯片，而不進行生產。生產由它們的代工合作伙伴——<strong>台積電</strong>（TSM 2.20%）完成。作為一家總部位於台灣的代工巨頭，台積電在這一技術的傳播中發揮了開創性作用。</p>
</div><p>Let's see why TSMC is probably the most important semiconductor company out there and has the potential to redefine the AI industry by the end of the decade.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>讓我們看看為什麼台積電可能是最重要的半導體公司，並且有潛力在本十年末重新定義 AI 行業。</p>
</div><h2>TSMC's advanced nodes play a key role in the expansion of AI</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>台積電的先進工藝節點在 AI 擴展中發揮關鍵作用</h2>
</div><p>TSMC's fabrication plants produce chips using different process nodes. Advanced process nodes tend to pack more transistors into a single chip. As a result, these chips can deliver more computing power and reduce energy consumption simultaneously.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>台積電的製造廠使用不同的工藝節點生產芯片。先進的工藝節點往往能在單個芯片中集成更多的晶體管。因此，這些芯片可以同時提供更強的計算能力並降低能耗。</p>
</div><p>Nvidia's A100 data center GPU, which was used for training ChatGPT, was manufactured on TSMC's 7-nanometer (nm) process node. Nvidia is now reportedly using TSMC's 4nm process node to manufacture its latest generation of Blackwell AI GPUs. These new GPUs deliver a significant jump in performance and power efficiency over the previous generation of chips that were based on a 5nm process.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Nvidia 的 A100 數據中心 GPU 用於訓練 ChatGPT，採用的是台積電的 7 納米（nm）工藝節點。Nvidia 目前據説正在使用台積電的 4nm 工藝節點來製造其最新一代的 Blackwell AI GPU。這些新 GPU 在性能和能效方面相較於基於 5nm 工藝的前一代芯片有顯著提升。</p>
</div><p>So, TSMC enabled Nvidia to enhance the performance of its latest processors by moving to a better process node. As a result, companies designing chips using TSMC's advanced process nodes can train bigger models and run AI inference applications more efficiently in data centers. At a time when AI models are becoming more efficient and concerns are being raised about the amount of power consumed by AI data centers, the need for advanced computing chips that TSMC makes is going to increase.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>因此，台積電使 Nvidia 能夠通過轉向更好的工藝節點來提升其最新處理器的性能。因此，使用台積電先進工藝節點設計芯片的公司可以訓練更大的模型，並在數據中心更高效地運行 AI 推理應用。在 AI 模型變得越來越高效、對 AI 數據中心能耗的擔憂日益加劇的情況下，台積電製造的先進計算芯片的需求將會增加。</p>
</div><p>This is precisely the reason TSMC has been able to consistently increase its share of the global foundry market. It controlled an impressive 70.2% of the global foundry market in the second quarter, up by 260 basis points from Q1.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這正是台積電能夠持續增加其全球代工市場份額的原因。它在第二季度控制了令人印象深刻的 70.2% 的全球代工市場份額，比第一季度增加了 260 個基點。</p>
</div><p>The second-place foundry player, Samsung, has a market share of just 7.3%. That's not surprising as the Korean company's process nodes are reportedly inferior to TSMC's in terms of performance. But TSMC isn't done pushing the envelope yet.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>第二大代工廠商三星的市場份額僅為 7.3%。這並不令人驚訝，因為韓國公司的工藝節點在性能上據説不如台積電。但台積電並沒有停止推動技術的邊界。</p>
</div><h2>More advanced process nodes are on the way</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>更先進的工藝節點即將到來</h2>
</div><p>TSMC's 3nm nodes are being widely used by <strong>Apple</strong>, <strong>Qualcomm</strong>, and other chip designers. The company is expected to start producing chips on an even better 2nm process node this year, promising a 15% improvement in transistor density over the 3nm node. As a result, TSMC's 2nm chips could reduce power consumption by 25% to 30% and enhance performance by 10% to 15% over the prior-generation chips.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>台積電的 3nm 節點被 <strong>Apple</strong>、<strong>Qualcomm</strong> 和其他芯片設計公司廣泛使用。預計該公司將在今年開始生產更先進的 2nm 工藝節點的芯片，承諾在晶體管密度上比 3nm 節點提高 15%。因此，台積電的 2nm 芯片可能在功耗上減少 25% 到 30%，並在性能上提高 10% 到 15%。</p>
</div><p>But that's not where the company is going to stop. TSMC management estimates that it can move to a 1.6nm chip node by the end of 2026, followed by a 1.4nm node in 2028. The company claims that the 1.4nm process &#34;will offer up to a 15% speed improvement at the same power, or up to a 30% power reduction at the same speed, along with more than a 20% increase in logic density&#34; as compared to the 2nm process.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但這並不是公司要停止的地方。台積電管理層估計，到 2026 年底，它可以轉向 1.6nm 芯片節點，隨後在 2028 年轉向 1.4nm 節點。該公司聲稱，1.4nm 工藝 “將在相同功率下提供高達 15% 的速度提升，或在相同速度下減少高達 30% 的功耗，同時邏輯密度提高超過 20%”，與 2nm 工藝相比。</p>
</div><p>And finally, TSMC estimates that it can move to an even smaller 1nm node by 2030. What this means is that TSMC's customers can make even more powerful chips in the future with lower power consumption. This should ideally enable TSMC to increase its share of the global foundry market in the long run, setting the company up for outstanding growth going forward.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>最後，台積電估計到 2030 年可以轉向更小的 1nm 節點。這意味着台積電的客户未來可以製造出更強大的芯片，同時降低功耗。這理想上將使台積電在長期內增加其全球代工市場份額，為公司的未來增長奠定基礎。</p>
</div><p>Not surprisingly, consensus analyst estimates project TSMC's earnings growth will accelerate.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>毫不奇怪，分析師的共識估計預測台積電的盈利增長將加速。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/a512127ed048065728c4c1202b39db5d.png" alt="" original-src="https://media.ycharts.com/charts/a512127ed048065728c4c1202b39db5d.png"/></p>
<p>Data by YCharts.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>數據來源：YCharts。</p>
</div><p>It can sustain this healthy growth rate through the end of the decade thanks to its product roadmap discussed above. Assuming TSMC can increase its earnings at an annual rate of 20% in 2029 and 2030, its bottom line could hit $19.38 per share in 2030 (from $13.46 in 2028). Multiplying that by the tech-heavy <strong>Nasdaq-100</strong> index's forward earnings multiple of 26 points toward a stock price of $511 after five years, a potential jump of 92% from current levels.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>憑藉上述產品路線圖，它可以在本十年末維持這一健康的增長率。假設台積電在 2029 年和 2030 年能夠以 20% 的年增長率增加其盈利，到 2030 年其每股收益可能達到 19.38 美元（從 2028 年的 13.46 美元）。將其乘以以科技股為主的 <strong>納斯達克 100</strong> 指數的前瞻性市盈率 26 倍，預計五年後股價將達到 511 美元，較當前水平潛在上漲 92%。</p>
</div><p>Given that TSMC stock trades at just 22 times forward earnings right now, investors are getting a great deal on this semiconductor stock. They should consider buying TSMC stock right away, considering its attractive valuation, as the company's ability to redefine the industry with even more advanced chips over the next five years could lead to stronger-than-expected earnings growth, and that could result in a sharper jump in its stock price than predicted above.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>考慮到台積電的股票目前僅以 22 倍的前瞻性市盈率交易，投資者在這隻半導體股票上獲得了很好的交易。考慮到其吸引人的估值，投資者應立即考慮購買台積電的股票，因為公司在未來五年內通過更先進的芯片重新定義行業的能力可能導致超出預期的盈利增長，這可能導致其股價比上述預測更大幅度上漲。</p>
</div>

Prediction: This AI Company Will Redefine Semiconductors by 2030

- 半導體行業在人工智能技術增長中發揮了關鍵作用。  
- TSMC 控制了全球代工市場 70.2% 的份額，推動了芯片性能提升。  
- 預計 TSMC 未來將實現更高的收益增長，股價有望大幅上漲。

預測：這家人工智能公司將在 2030 年重新定義半導體行業